Transcript
The major macro themes of interest are:
i. the beginning and pace of the tightening cycle in the US.
ii. the expansion of ECB's balance sheet and reflation of Euro area.
iii. the Bank of Japan's QE.
iv. China - Potential Easing Monetary Policy
v. Greek –EU tensions / Austerity measures EU
vi. Oil Prices
vi. Ukraine Crisis
vii. Russian Economic Crisis – Emerging Markets
viii. UK’s 2015 General Elections
Fed chair Yellen reiterates that a rate hike may be warranted in 2015
In a set of prepared notes released before her speech on Friday afternoon at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference, Janet Yellen reiterated that an increase to the Federal Funds Rate "may be warranted later this year.“
In striking a hawkish tone, the chair of the Federal Reserve said she does not need to see an increase in core inflation before the Fed decides to raise rates. The Fed, she added, could begin to raise rates before inflation reaches its target goal of 2%.
At the same time, there were dovish elements to Yellen's prepared speech. She emphasized that a return to normal interest rates will be "gradual," citing premature rate hikes in Japan and Sweden. As a result, Yellen said the Fed will proceed "cautiously" to avoid "tightening too quickly."
Next week’s March employment release (April 3) will support the USD, if payrolls again prints over 200k and the unemployment rate stays anchoredor falls even further from the current 5.5%.
Both of the US ISM surveys will becritical for the USD as well. Recent performance of both indices has been poor so a rebound will be a key requirement for a USD rebound.
Also in focus will be the FOMC minutes for the March meeting (released on April 8).
The minutes may appear more hawkish than the overly dovish interpretation of the FOMC March statement.
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