Global Environmental Modelling and Prediction Using Earth ... · DARC Global Environmental Modelling and Prediction Using Earth Observations from Space Alan O’ Neill Data Assimilation
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Global Environmental Modelling and Prediction
Using Earth Observations from Space
Alan O’ Neill
Data Assimilation Research Centre
University of Reading
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2020 Vision
• By 2020 the Earth will be viewed from space with better than 1km/1min resolution
• Computer power will be over 1000 times greater than it is today
• To exploit this technological revolution, the world must be digitised
• Data assimilation will create “ Digiworld”
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An analogy:recording music
• Goal: produce high-quality, well balanced CD of Berlin Philharmonic to play on standard home equipment
• Method: Distribute microphones around the Royal Albert Hall & record output from each
• Problems– Each mike picks up only part of the sound
– Some mikes are biased
– Some are noisy
– Some record only intermittently
– Customers don’ t want one CD for each mike
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What is data assimilation?
Data assimilation is the technique whereby observational data are combined with output from a numerical model to produce an optimal estimate of the evolving state of the system.
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Why We Need Data Assimilation
• range of observations• range of techniques• different errors• data gaps• quantities not measured• quantities linked
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Some Uses of Data Assimilation
• Operational weather and ocean forecasting
• Seasonal weather forecasting
• Land-surface process
• Global climate datasets
• Planning satellite measurements
• Evaluation of models and observations DARC
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Impact on NWP at the Met Office
Mar 99. 3D-Var
and ATOVS
Jul 99. ATOVS over Siberia,
sea-ice from SSM/I
Oct 99. ATOVS as radiances,
SSM/I winds
May 00. Retune
3D-Var
Feb/Apr 01. 2nd satellites,
ATOVS + SSM/I
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Seasonal Forecasts for Europe (DJF 1997/98)
Forecast probability of above average temperatures
Measured temperature anomaly
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Regional Scale: Regional Scale: WWalnut alnut GGulch (Monsoon 90)ulch (Monsoon 90)
Model
Model with 4DDA
Observat ion
Tombstone, AZ
0% 20%
Houser et al., 1998
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Conclusions
• Earth observations from space are allowing us to build highly sophisticated global environmental monitoring and prediction systems
• These systems will form the basis for many policy and commercial decisions
• But the scientific, computing and organisational challenges are enormous
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