GIE Annual Conference LNG : promoter of EU … · GIE Annual Conference LNG : promoter of EU Security and Diversity of Supply ? ... Project Calypso LNG ...
Post on 30-Aug-2018
216 Views
Preview:
Transcript
11GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
GIE Annual ConferenceLNG : promoter of EU Security and Diversity of Supply ?
Patrick-G. Wailliez – GDF Suez
GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. WailliezGIE Bucharest 2008
22GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
1. European Gas context
2. LNG Market
3. European Gas Perspectives
33GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
European Gas Transmission System
Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline
Source : IEA 2008 / TSGP
44GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Ba rcelona
HuelvaCartagena
El Ferro l
Sagunt oSines
Bilbao
Mon toir
Zeebrugg e
Fos Cavao u
Isle of Gra in
Sou th Hook
Drago n
MarmaraEreglisi
La Spezia
Aliaga
BrindisiLivorn
(OLT)
Rosignano
Priolo
Oxelösu nd
TarantoGioiaTauro
Vasiliko s
SzczezinWilhelmshaven
Eems havenShannon
Anglesey
Teesside
San Ferdinando
PortoEmpedocle
Liongas
GATE
Bordeaux
Co
Black Sea LNG
nstanta
Le HavreDunk irk
Ravenna
Pegaz
Fier
Revythoussa
Wilhelmshaven 2Taqa
TrRovigo Montefalcone
Krk
ieste
Mediterra neanSea
AtlanticOcean
LNG terminals
existing 16
under construction 7
proposed 35
Gran CanariaTenerife
Gijón
European LNG Terminals
Source : CERA 2007, GdF Suez
55GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Hydrocarbons Worldwide
70 % of World’s Oil, 40 % of Natural Gas
66GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Gas Supply for Europe
77GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Gas Supply for Europe
6000 km6000 km
4000 km4000 km
2000 km2000 km
In BCM
NORWAYNORWAY
VENEZUELAVENEZUELA
NIGERIA
ALGERIA
THE NETHERLANDS
RUSSIANFEDERATION
IRAN
QATAR
UKUK
ABUABU--DHABIDHABI
3 7003 700
4 2004 200
5100
4500
1 600
57 000
26 000
27 000
1 0001 000
5 6005 600
> 70% of the Proven Gas Reserves within economic Shipping DistanceSource: Cedigaz 2006
88GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. WailliezSource : IEA 2008, GIE, industry
EU: Supply Capacities in 2006 & 2015
99GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
EU : Natural Gas needs 2005-2025
543 bcm
2005
Imports
Source : European Commission / DG-TREN, 2007
Growing Needs & Supply Dependancy
EU domesticgas production
85 %
4 %2
629 bcm
2025
18 %
19%
1010GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
LNG imports 2007 = 53 bcm≈ 10% consumption EU 27 + Turkey
Source: BP statistical review 2008
Belgium (19% LNG)
Portugal(54% LNG)
France (31% LNG)
Spain (69% LNG)
Italy(3% LNG)
UK (2% LNG)
Greece(20% LNG)
Turkey(17 % LNG)
GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Europe : LNG Market Share by Country
1111GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
1. European Gas context
2. LNG Market
3. European Gas Perspectives
1212GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. WailliezSources: Poten 2008, Industry
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2005 2010 2015
MMt/y
CAGR12%
Others
Evolution (2007↔ 2006) = - 28 in 2015 ≈ mainly due to USA
LNG Market Atlantic Bassin: Demand
1313GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2005 2010 2015
MMt/y
Planned
Committed
Existing
~ 25%
Sources: Poten 2008, IndustrySimilar Curves for Pacific Basin
Atlantic Demand
Est. 2007
- Est. 2006
LNG Market Atlantic Bassin: Supply
25% of 2015 Demand covered by Planned Projects
1414GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2005 2010 2015
MMt/y
Terminals:Under Regulat.Review
Terminals:Approved
Terminals:Under Construction
Terminals:Operating
Regasification: Huge projected Spare Capacity
Supply
Sources: Poten 2008, Industry
Atlantic Basin: Terminal capacity vs. Supply
1515GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
LNG Regas Terminals in the Atlantic Bassin
Existing & ProposedNorth American LNG Terminals
Source : FERC oct 2008
Barcelona
Huelva Cartagena
ElFerrol
SaguntoSines
Bilbao
Montoir
Zeebrugge
FosCavaou
IsleofGrain
SouthHookDragon
MarmaraEreglisi
LaSpezia
Aliaga
BrindisiLivorn(OLT)
Rosignano
Priolo
Oxelösund
TarantoGioiaTauro
Vasilikos
SzczezinWilhelmshaven
EemshavenShannon
AngleseyTeesside
SanFerdinando
PortoEmpedocle
Liongas
GATE
BordeauxCo
Black Sea LNG
nstanta
LeHavreDunkirk
Ravenna
Pegaz
Fier
Revythoussa
Wilhelmshaven2Taqa
TrRovigo Montefalcone
Krk
ieste
MediterraneanSea
AtlanticOcean
LNG terminals
existing 16
underconstruction 7
proposed 35
Gran CanariaTenerife
Gijón
Source : CERA 2007, GdF Suez
1616GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
x27
LNG Infrastructures Worldwide
Source: Petroleum Economist, LNG Journal, Enagas
Existing LNG TerminalsLNG Terminals under construction / committedLNG Terminals planned/under study
(58)(35-40)(70-80)
≈ 170
Existing Liquefaction TerminalsLiquefaction Terminals under construction/planned/under study
(21)(40-50)60-70
1717GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
101
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spot & Short TermLong Term Trade
MMt/y
LNG Trade WW: LT ST
Increasing importance of Spot & ST TradesSources: Poten 2008, Industry
4/5
1/5
142
31
136125116116103101
2216
161086
1818GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
LNG Trade WW: LT ST
101
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Spot & Short termLong term trade
MMt/y
101 103116 116 125 136 142
3122
161610
6 8
Sources: Poten 2008, Industry
Spot & Short-Term Trades by Importer
0
5
10
15
20
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
MMt/y
AsiaNorth AmericaEurope
2007
35
25
+31%
+26%
18
49
33
44
27
29
58
35
7
Spot trades: important Increase with highly Varying Destinations
2
1919GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
EU LNG Terminal : Utilisation Rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002-2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
%
Source : GIIGNL 2008
72
565959
49
Moving from Base Load to Flex Terminals
2020GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Source: Poten & Partners 2008, Industry
LNG Supply Projections: recent evolution
2004 projection
2005 projection
2006 projection
2007 projection
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010
2008 projection
Global liquefactionCapacity (MMt)
• LNG supply projections continue to slide
• Supply will be tight if some projects are postponed: Nigeria, Australia, Iran…
2121GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
LNG : Costs evolution
• E&P- Drilling Rigs > x3- Steel > x2
• Liquefaction:coming on stream Now within 4 years
350-450 $/t 600-800 $/t(Lowest specific cost was 250 $/t only a few years ago)
• Shipping: 1,000 $/m3 1,400 $/m3
Over last 5 years time
Up to recently : important Rising CostsCredit Crunch => expected Cost Decrease …
… but Uncertainty not favorable for New Projects
2222GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Concerns about future Supply: LNG
• Evolution of Future Liquefaction Projects
• Geopolitical & safety constraints in some producing areas
• Rising internal demand (needs) in producing countries(competing with volumes for export)
• High incremental demand in some regions
• Environmental constraints
2323GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Shuttle Regas Vessel(SRV)
Floating Storage Regas Unit (FSRU)
LNG Carrier
Permanent Mooring
IN-LINE TIE-IN
FLOWLINE Main Line to Onshore Receiving Terminal
Mooring & Offloading Buoy
LNG Offshore Regas
Solution to Environnement Constraints & Security of Supply
Source : Project Calypso LNG - GdFSuez
2424GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Shuttle Regas Vessel(SRV)
Floating Storage Regas Unit (FSRU)
LNG Carrier
Permanent Mooring
IN-LINE TIE-IN
FLOWLINE Main Line to Onshore Receiving Terminal
Mooring & Offloading Buoy
LNG Offshore Regas
Solution to Environnement Constraints & to Security of Supply
Source : Project Calypso LNG - GdFSuez
Source: APL
2525GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Concerns about future Supply: LNG
• Evolution of Future Liquefaction Projects
• Geopolitical & safety constraints in some producing areas
• Rising internal demand (needs) in producing countries(competing with volumes for export)
• High incremental demand in some regions
• Environmental constraints
• Workload and potential bottlenecks for specialized contractors
• Impact of financial crisis
high competition for LNG- already tight in case of severe winter- potential inbalance needs production after 2010-2012
2626GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
1. European Gas context
2. LNG Market
3. European Gas Perspectives
2727GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Concern about future EU Gas Supply
• Sufficient & Timely Investments a.o. in the upstream
• Perceived Security of Supply
• Competing Offtakes
2828GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
European Gas Supply Competing Offtakes
Trans Saharan Gas Pipeline
Source : IEA 2008 / TSGP
2929GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Concern about future EU Gas Supply
• Sufficient & Timely Investments a.o. in the upstream
• Perceived Security of Supply
• Competing Offtakes
• Predictability of demand and supply
3030GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Changes in European gas Markets (2007/2006)
> 6 %
1,5 % < < 6 %
-1,5 % < < 1,5 %
-6 % < < -1,5 %
< -6 %
NG consumption* change 2007/2006
* Including stock variations
Source : GdF Suez, Eurogas, Cedigaz
Impact of High Energy Prices + Financial Crisis (for the future)
3131GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Targets by 2020
20 % = renewablesshare
20% efficiencyincrease
20% reduction of greenhouse gases (*)
EU strategy for Climate protection: 3 Pillars
(*) compared to 1990
3232GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
20 % = renewablesshare
20% reduction of greenhouse gases (*)
(*) compared to 1990
Climate protection: 3 Energies for 3 Pillars
Nuclear Renewables
Gas
3333GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Electricity Generation in the EU
TWh
1450
IEA Scenario Outlook
15% 35%
30003400
39004300
520 (x2.8)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2002 2010 2020 2030
nuclear coal oil gas hydro renewables
+1.3%/yr
+3.7%/yr
3434GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2002 2010 2020 2030
nuclear coal oil gas hydro renewables
Electricity Generation in the EU
TWh
1450
IEA Scenario Outlook
30003400
39004300
520
Gas for Power: 2/3 of gas demand Increase!
+ 90 BCM
Impact of extending Life of Nuclear power units
3535GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Concern about future EU Gas Supply
Measures have to be taken at EU level, Focusing on the Real Priorities
• Sufficient & Timely Investments a.o. in the upstream
• Perceived Security of Supply
• Competing Offtakes
• Predictability of demand and supply
• Ability to Transfer Gas between the various regional grids• new Regulatory regime tends to Exhaust Spare Capacities• Gas Quality constraints• Heterogeneity of Operational Rules
• Shortage of Storage Capacity(growing needs as indigenous production replaced by long distance imports)
3636GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Regulatory and Political Issues at EU level
• Important Role of European authorities to- Define a Global Strong, Credible and Coherent EU Energy Policy
(S.o.S., Competitiveness, Single Market & Climate)
- Promote a New Type of Relationship with Historical Suppliers based on reciprocity and mutual trust & benefit (Leaving to the Industry the Entrepreneurial responsibilities)
• At regulatory level: promote a European Regulatory body
- Create suitable framework to Stimulate Investments(predictability; rate of return; exemptions where appropriate)
- Fill the regulatory Gap between the Countries and allow Real Interoperability
- Avoid unnecessary Weakening of some elements of the gas chain & the creation of a Regulatory ‘Pancaking’
3737GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Strategy Trend at Industry Level
• Consolidation and search for Scale to cope with new challenges
Critical Mass to:
- undertake the Huge Investments
- negotiate with Producers
- spread portfolio Risks (diversify sources & routes; balance LNG Pipe)
- offer Competitive Conditions and Excellent Services to Customers
• Vertical integration (up & downstream)
• Development new type of Relationships with Producers (JV for commercialisation, joint investments, assets swaps,…)
3838GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Mergers and Acquisitions
Source: Poweo, GdF Suez
2006-08
2005
2004
2006-2007
2004
2006
20062005
2001
2005 2008
2003
20062005
2005
2005
2005
2004
2005
2007
2007
Public takeover bidor repurchase (total or partial) achieved
Merger or public takeover bid under way
Takeover bidpossible or mentioned
FailureGaz de France
2006 2006
2009
2009
3939GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Gas in Europe : Conclusions
• Gas is abundant and Piped Gas together with LNG will continue to play a Key Role
• Increasing importance of LNG even if some uncertainties exist• Contributes to Diversification of Supply• Improves Arbitrage possibilities
• Important gas Quantities still have to be Contracted
• Europe will have to Compete in order to attract the necessary gas Supplies
• Market will be tight for the coming years and prices will become more volatile (as it is already the case for oil products)
• Compatibility between ‘Continuity of Supply’ & ‘Arbitrage opportunities’will have to be assured in such context
• A diversified portfolio based on Pipe Gas and Historical Supply sources remains the Corner Stone of a sound Supply Policy
• A Strong & consistent and a Stable & Predictable Framework are conducive to meeting required Timely Investments and Improve market Liquidity
4040GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
GdF Suez putting its Energy at your Serviceand delivering the Essentials of Life
4141GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Diversified & optimized Natural Gas Supply portfolio over 100 bcm
2007 scope, without Distrigaz, including assets from ENI deal
Norway
Other
Middle East - Asia
Algeria
Russia
Trinidad and Tobago
Egypt
LibyaUnited Kingdom
Spot marketpurchase
The Netherlands
4242GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Rabaska
Sabine Pass
Isle of Grain
Idku
Montoir-de-Bretagne
Fos-sur-Mer
Kochi
15 LNG Tankers (+ 5 under construction)
Cartagena
Triton
GdF Suez : E&P and LNG Worldwide
SouthKorea
Japan
India
GreeceSpain
USA
Mexico
Atlantic LNG(Trinidad & Tobago)
Brass
NLNG
Dahej
SingaporeMejillones
Everett
Neptune Calypso
Penuelas*
Yemen LNG
Freeport
E&P
Presence
Production
Regas LiquefactionUnder Under
Construction ConstructionExisting
Capacity
Project Existing Project
Capacity& Equity
LNG
LT Supply
Spot Sales(2008)
Equity
Algeria
Nigeria
Egypt
NorwayZeebrugge
Huelva
Snøhvit
Skikda Arzew Bethioua
* Penuelas : Access through LT Sales
- Reserves : 667 Mboe (end 2007)
- Leadership in LNG- 1st Natural Gas Buyer in Europe
IvoryCoast
UK
DNL
4343GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
Strong H1 2008 Results, Solid Balance Sheet,in a Difficult Environment
Gearing
18.815.8Net debt
+14%3.38€1.56
2.96€1.36
Net income, Group sharePer share
4.59
6.75
36.73
H1 2007In € bn H1 2008 H1 08/07 ∆
Revenues 43.13 +17%
EBITDA 8.13 +20%
Current Operating Income 5.49 +20%
29.2%
At 12/31/07
4444GIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. WailliezGIE Bucharest 2008 Patrick-G. Wailliez
www.gdfsuez.com
top related