gcc fall 16 section C carboncycle - University of Idahojhicke/courses/globalclimch_fall… · Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke GEOG 313/513 Fall 2016 Section C: Carbon Cycle

10/10/16

1

GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2016

SectionC:CarbonCycle

Outline

C.1Introduction

C.2Theglobalcarboncycle

C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle

C.4Globalcarbonbudget

GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2014

SectionC:CarbonCycle

Learningoutcomes

• explainthemajorstocksoftheglobalcarboncycle

• understandthemajorsourcesandsinksofthecarboncycleandthetimescalesoverwhichtheyoperate

• describethehumanperturbationstothecarboncycleandwheretheemittedcarbonisgoing

GlobalClimateChange 3 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2014

SectionC:CarbonCycle

Outline

C.1Introduction

C.2Theglobalcarboncycle

C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle

C.4Globalcarbonbudget

10/10/16

2

GlobalClimateChange 4 ProfJ.HickeIPCC,AR5,WGI,2013

Carbonstocksandfluxesblackarrows:preindustrialredarrows:fromhumanactivities

stocks

fluxes

GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke

Carbonstocksinecosystems(plantsandsoil)Carbonstocks

GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke

cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documentation.html

Carbonstocks

10/10/16

3

GlobalClimateChange 7 ProfJ.Hicke

GPPorNPP(andR?)

Carbonfluxes

GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.Hicke

ForestdisturbancesandtheCcycle

Sink of C from atmosphere

Source of C to atmosphere

carbonmanagement

Kurzetal.,Nature,2008

Kurz et al. 2008, Nature

Slide courtesy W. Kurz, CFS

Cumulative impact: equivalent to 5 years of emissions from Canada’s transportation sector

GlobalClimateChange 9 ProfJ.Hicke

Sea-to-AirCarbonFlux

cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/LDEO_Underway_Database/pco2_flux_rate_maps.html

toairtosea

10/10/16

4

GlobalClimateChange 10 ProfJ.Hicke

Long-termCarbonCycle

www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/kling/carbon_cycle/carbon_cycle.html

GlobalClimateChange 11 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2014

SectionC:CarbonCycle

Outline

C.1Introduction

C.2Theglobalcarboncycle

C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle

C.4Globalcarbonbudget

GlobalClimateChange 12 ProfJ.Hickewww.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

10/10/16

5

GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.Hicke

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

AnimationofCO2

GlobalClimateChange 14 ProfJ.Hickedougrobbins.blogspot.com/2012/04/modeling-global-co2-cycles.html

Annualcycleofatmospheric CO2

Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO2, 65% over 1990

Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminarySource: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

10/10/16

6

Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios

Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrialLarge and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC

Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shownSource: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)

The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissionsChina (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)

Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissionsStatistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)

China’s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average

Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Percapitaemissionsin2013

10/10/16

7

GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.Hicke

SizeofcountryproportionaltototalCO2emissionsin2009

GlobalClimateChange 20 ProfJ.Hicke

EPA,InventoryofU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsandSinks:1990– 2012,2014

IPCCAR4,2007

CO2eemissionsbysector(source)

US

Global

GlobalClimateChange 21 ProfJ.Hicke

EPA,InventoryofU.S.GreenhouseGasEmissionsandSinks:1990– 2012,2014

StateoftheCarbonCycleReport,2007

USemissionsbyconsumersoffossilfuels

10/10/16

8

GlobalClimateChange 22 ProfJ.Hicke

IncludingallgreenhousegasesincalculationofCO2e

GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.Hicke

www.ibtimes.com/reversal-fortune-deforestation-amazon-rainforest-increased-28-over-past-year-1472840 www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/05/31/187301981/Battling-Deforestation-In-

Indonesia-One-Firm-At-A-Time

Tropicaldeforestation

www.argentinaindependent.com/socialissues/environment/amazonian-deforestation-soars/

GlobalClimateChange 24 ProfJ.Hickeupload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Fires_and_Deforestation_on_the_Amazon_Frontier%2C_Rondonia%2C_Brazil_-_August_12%2C_2007.jpg

Deforestationpatterns

10/10/16

9

GlobalClimateChange 25 ProfJ.Hicke

http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/

Arcofdeforestation(red)inAmazon

GlobalClimateChange 26 ProfJ.Hicke

R.A. Houghton, unpublished

Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

Pg C

yr-1

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Africa

Latin America

S. & SE Asia

Historical Emissions from Land Use Change

SUM

2000-20071.5 GtonC y-1

(16% total emissions)

Land-Use Change Emissions

Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 during 2004–2013The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990

Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of greyLand-use change also emits CH4 and N2O which are not shown here

Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Indonesian peat fires

10/10/16

10

Total Global Emissions by Source

Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO2 emissions until around 1950Coal consumption continues to grow strongly

Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaringSource: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

GEOG313/513Fall2014

SectionC:CarbonCycle

Outline

C.1Introduction

C.2Theglobalcarboncycle

C.3Humanperturbationstothecarboncycle

C.4Globalcarbonbudget

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2004-2013 average)

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

26%9.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr

32.4±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%

+3.3±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%10.6±2.9 GtCO2/yr

29%Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

15.8±0.4 GtCO2/yr44%

10/10/16

11

GlobalClimateChange 31 ProfJ.HickeIPCC,AR5,WGI,2013

Carbonuptakebylandandocean

GlobalClimateChange 32 ProfJ.Hicke

IPCC,AR5,WGI,2013

Globalcarbonbudget

Global Carbon Budget

Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean

Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

10/10/16

12

Global Carbon Budget

The cumulative contributions to the Global Carbon Budget from 1870Contributions are shown in parts per million (ppm)

Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;

Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

sourcessinks

GlobalClimateChange 35 ProfJ.Hicke

StateoftheCarbonCycleReport,2007

NorthAmericancarbonbudget

GlobalClimateChange 36 ProfJ.HickeIPCC,AR5,WGI,2013

Largeuncertaintiesinmodelresultsforuptakeofcarbononland

10/10/16

13

GlobalClimateChange 37 ProfJ.Hicke

Largeuncertaintieswhenmodelingfuturevegetation

type

columns: differentGCMs

rows: differentassumptionsaboutvegetation(amountofCO2anditseffectonphotosynthesis)

Lapola etal.,2009