Future Jordan Virtual Power Plant EEEMF Jordan 2015 Energy Economy & Energy Management Forum For Mena & Fourth Renewable Energy National Dialogue –Amman.
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Future Jordan Virtual Power Plant
EEEMF Jordan 2015
Energy Economy & Energy Management Forum For Mena & Fourth Renewable Energy National Dialogue –Amman May 2015
By Eng. S.Mohamad ALAYA LEBANON
Agenda
EEEMF Jordan 2015
1. Introduction2. Jordan electricity market3. Jordan Virtual Power Plant4. Jordan financials
- VPP capacity- Profit and loss analysis- Scenario analysis- Cash flow from VPP- Total investment- Investment schedule - Investment schedule Local partners- Profit to local community
Introduction
Teaming up with is a leading technology owner company in the field of development and deployment Virtual Power Plants (VPP´s) having proven record in the VPP application and implementation
Why Virtual Power Plants ?
- Costly infrastructure with long lead times for new projects
- Public resistance against new projects (transmission and
distribution lines, nuclear, coal, etc.)
- Increasing share of RES
- Higher security of supply
- Increasing consumption
- Environmental issues
- Value chain optimization
- Increasing revenues
EEEMF Jordan 2015
Optimizing energy value chain
EEEMF Jordan 2015
© cyberGRID 2012
Current situation in energy market
Energy shortage:• Demand 2500 MW• Supply 1560 MW
Current cost of providing energy:• $5.5 million a day• $2 Billion yearly
Demand:• Increasing demand average
10% annually• $2,3 mio of peak demand in
February 2012• Power rationing 6-12 hours
Exist-ing62%
Neede
d38%
Current proposed solution: Power boats 270 MW
Cost of 0,33$ per kWh
Jordan VPP solution
Exist-ing 62%
LDRC 12%
Needed
26%Capacity:• 300 MW through 3 years
Demand response:• Emergency situations (tertiary reserve)• Requested response ( maintenance works)
Investors:• SUPERGRID, Local partners• Investment $14.1 million through 3 years
Timeline:• Technical investigation proposal 2nd half of 2015• Demonstrational project 2015/2016
EEEMF Jordan 2015
VPP financials
EEEMF Jordan 2015
- VPP capacity- Profit and loss analysis- Scenario analysis- Cash flow from VPP- Total investment- Investment schedule - Investment schedule Local partners- Profit to local community
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY50
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Total Available Capacity MW offered on the market
VPP capacity
Risk limitation:Client availability 60%
VPP capacity through yearsIn MW
In MW FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Total Available Capacity 0 100 200 300 300 300
MW offered on the market 0 60 120 180 180 180
EEEMF Jordan2015
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY50
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total revenues EBITDA EBIT
Profit and Loss analysis
Total sales: $6.7 mio (FY1) to $20.1 mio (FY3)(Revenue per kWh 19 $cents)
Gross margin:Approaching 50%
Depreciation: 10 years linear
EBIT$1,17 mio (FY1) to $9.16 mio (FY3)
Total sales and EBITDA In 000´ $
EEEMF Jordan 2015
In 000´ $ FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Total revenues 0 6732 13465 20197 20197 20197Cost of Goods Sold Total 0 5077 8483 11575 10062 10062EBITDA 0 1656 4981 8622 10135 10135Depreciation 0 482 730 977 977 977EBIT 0 1173 4252 7645 9158 9158
Scenario analysis
Sales revenue in scenario analysisIn 000´ $
Scenario parameters (market risk):
Load size (0,2-0,3)
Client availability ( 50-70%)
EEEMF 2015
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY50
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Average Low High
In 000´ $ FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5
AverageSales Total 0 6732 13465 20197 20197 20197EBITDA 0 1655 4980 8622 10134 10134
LowSales Total 0 5610 11220 16831 16831 16831EBITDA 0 1248 4009 7033 8283 8283
HighSales Total 0 7854 15709 23563 23563 23563EBITDA 0 2062 5953 10210 11986 11986
CF and profit distribution
EEEMF Jordan 2015
Operating CF and profit distributionIn 000´ $
Income tax assumed:25%
Payout ratio:0.8
Assuming investments from partners
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY50
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Operating Cashflow Cumulative Operating CashflowOwner draw - dividends
In 000´ $ FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Operating Cashflow 0 1373 3949 6762 7906 7906Cumulative Operating Cashflow 0 1372 5321 12083 19989 27895Owner draw - dividends 0 1098 4257 9667 15991 22316
Total Investment with expansion: $14.1 million
Total investment
EEEMF Jordan 2015
Total investment and DividendsIn 000´ $
Project profitability:
NPV: $ 39 million
IRR: 78%
Payback: 2.8 years FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Owner draw - dividends Total investment Cumulative CF
P.B.P.
In 000´ $ FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Owner draw - dividends 0 1098 4257 10467 20447 34596Total Investment 2361 3766 6444 9702 7341 8166Cumulative CF -2361 -5029 -7216 -6451 6655 33084
© cyberGRID 2012
Investment schedule
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Total investment Dividends Cumulative CF
In 000´ $ FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Total investment -1180 -1666 -1984 -1984 0 0Dividends 0 523 2029 4608 7623 10639Cumulative CF -1180 -2323 -2278 347 7970 18609
Total investment and Dividends (In 000´ $)
P.B.P.Project profitability:
NPV: $ 18.6 million
IRR: 78%
Payback: 2.8 years
Local partners investment schedule
In 000´ $ FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Total investment -1180 -2100 -2100 -2100 0 0Dividends 0 574 2227 5058 8368 11677Net CF -1180 -1525 128 2959 8368 11677Cumulative CF -1180 -2706 -2578 381 8749 20426
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Total investment Dividends Cumulative CF
Total investment and Dividends Local partners (In 000´ $)
P.B.P.
Project profitability:
NPV: $ 20.4 million
IRR: 78%
Payback: 2.8 years
EEEMF Jordan 2015
Profit distribution to community
Share of revenues to the industries:30% (COGS)
Excess capacity payment:50%
Payments to industries in LebanonIn 000´ $
EEEMF Jordan 2015
Profit distribution to local community (In 000' $) FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY5Average 0 3030 6059 9089 9089 9089High 0 3534 7069 10603 10603 10603Low 0 2525 5049 7574 7574 7574
FY0 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY4 FY50
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Average High Low
Lebanon Demand Response CentercyberGRID GmbH
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