Forest Fire Detection in Ontario Rob McAlpine Program Leader, Forest Fire Science and Technology Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources Aviation and Forest.

Forest Fire Detection in Forest Fire Detection in OntarioOntario

Rob McAlpineRob McAlpineProgram Leader, Forest Fire Science and TechnologyProgram Leader, Forest Fire Science and TechnologyOntario Ministry of Natural ResourcesOntario Ministry of Natural ResourcesAviation and Forest Fire Management BranchAviation and Forest Fire Management Branch

Talk OutlineTalk Outline

Outline of Fire Management in OntarioOutline of Fire Management in Ontario

History of Fire DetectionHistory of Fire Detection

Current Detection operationsCurrent Detection operations

Detection ResultsDetection Results

ChallengesChallenges

Ontario’s Fire Management Program

Forests cover 85% of Ontario’s land area and forest fires have shaped much of this environment.

Land cover composed primarily of Boreal and Mixedwood Forests.

Ontario averages roughly 1,300 fires annually.

$94 million spent annually to protect communities and natural resources.

$4.1 billion in Gross Provincial Income annually attributed to forest fire protection.

PolicyFire Management Strategies

6 Fire Management Zones6 Fire Management Zones• Southern OntarioSouthern Ontario• ParksParks• Great Lakes/St. LawrenceGreat Lakes/St. Lawrence• BorealBoreal• Northern BorealNorthern Boreal• Hudson BayHudson Bay

• Ecoregion-based planning Ecoregion-based planning rather than zones based on rather than zones based on geographically or politically geographically or politically basedbased

PolicyFire Management Strategy

• Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire use use

• Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives • Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits.Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits.

• New performance measures have been developed:New performance measures have been developed:• Forest Depletion Area BurnedForest Depletion Area Burned• Hazard Reduction Area BurnedHazard Reduction Area Burned• Ecosystem Renewal Area BurnedEcosystem Renewal Area Burned

• A flexible response to fires through the concept of A flexible response to fires through the concept of Managed FireManaged Fire..

PerformancePerformance

The key performance measure is The key performance measure is Initial Attack SuccessInitial Attack Success

Target is 96% IA SuccessTarget is 96% IA Success

Annual Number of Fires

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Nu

mb

er

of F

ires

Number of Fires 10 Year Average 5 Year Average

10 year average - 1,283

Annual Hectares Burned

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Are

a i

n H

ec

tare

s

Area in Hectares 10 Year Average 5 Year Average

10 year average – 152,188

Organization

•Two Regional Fires Centers direct day-to day operations

• A Provincial Fire Centre oversees two Fire Region Centres

•29 Attack bases

•225 Permanent staff and 760 seasonal positions

• District Office

• Response Centre

Detection in OntarioDetection in Ontario

At the turn of the century Ontario began to At the turn of the century Ontario began to build towersbuild towers

Most towers were erected between 1920 Most towers were erected between 1920 and 1950and 1950

At the peak there were 320 active towersAt the peak there were 320 active towers

During the late 1960’s and early 1970’s During the late 1960’s and early 1970’s most towers were decommissioned – most towers were decommissioned – replaced with Aerial detectionreplaced with Aerial detection

•Aerial - Fleet of 15 Contract Aircraft •Public - Common reporting system•Reports direct to Fire Centres

Current Fire Detection Program

Detection PlanningDetection Planning

Aerial Detection Aerial Detection advantage is flexibilityadvantage is flexibility

Detection planning is Detection planning is based on risk, expected based on risk, expected fire starts, and expected fire starts, and expected fire behaviorfire behavior

Detection CostsDetection Costs

Basing fees = $675,000 for 15 contract aircraft

Positioning Fees = $225,000

Flying costs = $325 to $635 /hour/aircraft. Average 270 hours per aircraft for approximate flying costs $2,000,000

Spend around $3.0 million annually on organized detection

ResultsResultsOr:Or:

– What did we buy with that $3,000,000?What did we buy with that $3,000,000?

Or:Or:

– Some Embarrassing StatisticsSome Embarrassing Statistics

Organized Detection

23%

Random Ground48%

Random Aerial26%

Other3%

Sources of Fire Reports

Percent Discovery By Type

  Low Moderate High Extreme

Organized Detection 53% 55% 51% 50%

Random Detection 47% 45% 49% 50%

FWI Class

Lightning Fires Only

  Low Moderate High Extreme

Organized Detection 0.37 0.51 0.69 1.01

Random Detection 0.50 0.43 0.60 0.71

Discovery Size (ha)

FWI Class

ChallengesChallenges

Performance measuresPerformance measures

Investment levelInvestment level

Integration of new technologyIntegration of new technology

Performance MeasuresPerformance Measures

Audit ResultsAudit Results

Working towards A robust performance Working towards A robust performance measuremeasure

Recognize Detection as Part of a larger Recognize Detection as Part of a larger systemsystem

Life Cycle of a Forest FireLife Cycle of a Forest Fire

Detection PerformanceDetection Performance

Goal of Goal of Forest Fire Detection:Forest Fire Detection:

Deliver Fires to Suppression Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success at a a high probability of IA success at a minimum costminimum cost..

Draft Goal

Detection PerformanceDetection Performance

Goal of Goal of Organized Forest Fire Detection:Organized Forest Fire Detection:

Deliver Fires to Suppression Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success without a high probability of IA success without competing with other detection sourcescompeting with other detection sources

Draft Goal

Conceptual Detection TargetConceptual Detection Target

Detection Size

Exp

ecte

d F

ire B

ehav

ior 96% likely successful

Initial Attack

Different Suppression Weights

Detection Performance Detection Performance Complicating FactorsComplicating Factors

Cost Trade OffsCost Trade Offs– Suppression weight vs additional detectionSuppression weight vs additional detection

Build in “Random Detection” into systemBuild in “Random Detection” into system– do not want to competedo not want to compete

SummarySummary

Ontario’s Fire Management Strategy allows for Managed Ontario’s Fire Management Strategy allows for Managed FireFire

Fire load and area burned is highly variableFire load and area burned is highly variable

Ontario uses a fleet of contract aircraft for fire detectionOntario uses a fleet of contract aircraft for fire detection

Most fires are detected by “random” sourcesMost fires are detected by “random” sources

Working towards a robust performance measureWorking towards a robust performance measure

Thank YouThank You