Forecasting Oilsands Energy Demand - Itroncapabilities.itron.com/efg/2012/Fri_06_StevenEverett.pdf · Forecasting Oilsands Energy Demand Steven Everett, Economic Analyst Alberta Electric
Post on 07-Sep-2018
214 Views
Preview:
Transcript
Forecasting Oilsands Energy Demand
Steven Everett, Economic Analyst
Alberta Electric System Operator
2012 Itron Forecasters Forum / 10th annual EFG Meeting
May 10-11, 2012
What are Oilsands?
• Oilsands are a mixture of sand, water,
clay and bitumen
• Bitumen is oil that is too heavy or thick
to flow or be pumped without being
diluted or heated
• “Tar” sands is incorrect terminology; tar
is a petroleum byproduct
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Source: Suncor Energy
Oilsands are extensive
(149,000 sq mi)
(55,000 sq mi)
(1,900 sq mi)
(232 sq mi)
Area Land
(sq mi)
Alberta 255,541
California 155,959
Nevada 109,826
Florida 53,927
New York 47,214
Delaware 1,954
• Oilsands deposits area is about the size of Florida
• Estimated Recoverable Reserves: 175 billion barrels
• Alberta oilsands are the largest oil reserves in the world not controlled by a national oil company
Source: Government of Alberta
Value of Alberta Capital Projects ($ millions)
$0
$20,
000
$40,
000
$60,
000
$80,
000
$100
,000
$120
,000
$140
,000
Telecommunications
Agriculture & Related
Forestry & Related
Mining
Chemicals & Petrochemicals
Biofuels
Other Industrial
Commercial/Retail & Residential
Oil & Gas
Tourism/Recreation
Residential
Pipelines
Commercial/Retail
Institutional
Power
Infrastructure
Oilsands
Oilsands Investment Dominates Alberta
Economy
Source: Government of Alberta, February 2012 4
Oilsands Extraction Technology
Mining
• Uses shovel and truck
combination to extract oilsands
(sand & heavy oil)
• Trucks deliver oilsands to
extraction facility which
separates bitumen from sand,
water & clay
• Bitumen is either upgraded into
synthetic light oil or blended with
diluent then shipped via pipeline
to market
In Situ (in place)
• Steam Assisted Gravity
Drainage (SAGD)
• Two parallel horizontal wells
are drilled, one above the other
• The top well injects steam
which heats the formation
allowing the bitumen to flow
into the lower production well
• Cyclic Steam Stimulation
(CSS) “Huff & Puff”
• One vertical well is drilled
• Steam is injected into the well
which heats the formation
• Once heated, the well is used
to extract the bitumen
Source: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Challenges - Methodology
• Pre-2007, oilsands was modeled as part of industrial sector
• Rapid oilsands growth and increased data on oilsands sites prompted
industrial breakout into oilsands and industrial without oilsands
• Lack of historical oilsands data and rapidly changing technologies prohibit
econometric models
• Need to create forecast which can be used in transmission planning
Source: AESO
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
Ene
rgy
(GW
h)
Oilsands 18%
Farm 3%
Residential 13%
Commercial 20%
Industrial (withoutOilsands) 46%
Alberta Customer Sector Electricity Consumption
Methodology – What Data Do We Have?
• Project information
• Announced, applied-for, approved, in construction, etc.
• Third party production forecast
• Site-specific information
• Historical information
• Electrical Intensities
• Technology type
• Demand (MW and MWh)
• Production (barrels per day)
Oilsands Forecasting – Project Add-up vs.
Third Party Forecasts
• Very few projects have historically being built on schedule
• Projects ramp-up and typically produce below nameplate capacity
• Projects can be added or cancelled very quickly
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Oilsands Review, Company Reports
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
Pro
du
ctio
n (
bb
l/d
)
Announced
Application
Approval
UnderConstruction
Existing
ConferenceBoard 2011Forecast
Oilsands Production Forecast
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Energy Resource Conservation Board (ERCB)
• Conference Board of Canada (CB of C) Oilsands Production Forecast Used
• CB of C has publicly available third-party forecast
• CB of C oilsands forecast is aligned with economic drivers used to forecast other sectors
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
Pro
du
ctio
n (
tho
usa
nd
bb
l/d
)
Oilsands Production Forecast
Mining In Situ
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32O
ilsan
ds
Pro
du
ctio
n (
tho
usa
nd
bb
l/d
)
CB of C 2011 CB of C 2012 IHS CERA ERCB
Oilsands Production Forecast Comparison
Conference Board of Canada oilsands production forecast is
checked against other forecasts
Source: Conference Board of Canada, IHS CERA, Energy Resource Conservation Board (ERCB)
Forecast revised
upwards in 2012
due to new projects
and cheaper natural
gas price forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
2008 2009 2010 2011
Ave
rage
kW
h /
bar
rel
Average Oilsands Mining Electricity Intensity
Mining Intensity
Source: Energy Resource Conservation Board (ERCB), AESO
Spike caused
by new mine
ramping up
In Situ Intensity
Source: Energy Resource Conservation Board (ERCB), AESO
0
5
10
15
20
25
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Ave
rage
kW
h /
bar
rel
Average Oilsands In Situ Electricity Intensity
New Technologies
Technological Change
• SAGD, CSS, and Mining are current main extraction technologies
• Prototype electricity-based extraction technologies are being tested
• E-T Energy’s ET-DSP (Electro-Thermal Dynamic Stripping Process) technology
Source: E-T Energy
• Electrodes are inserted into the bitumen formation
• Electricity flows through the bitumen between electrodes heating the bitumen
• Heated bitumen is pumped out
• Initial estimates suggest 4-10 times more electricity intensive than SAGD
New Technologies
Technological Change
• Thermal-Assisted Gravity Drainage
• Two horizontal wells, similar to SAGD, wells are also inductive heater wells that use electricity
• Initial estimates suggest 10 times more electricity intensive than SAGD
• Solvent-Cyclic Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SC-SAGD)
• Adds solvent injection to enhance SAGD
• Likely to be more electricity-intensive
Source: Cenovus Energy
Factors which increase intensities
• Additional motors
• Pumps
• Compressors
• Electrical Submersible Pumps (ESPs)
• Injectors (solvent, steam)
• New Technologies
• E-T Energy’s electrode technology (4-10X higher intensity)
• Electric heating coils
• Electric heating elements (Shell, AOSP)
• Inductive heating (10X higher intensity)
• In situ combustion (requires air injection instead of steam)
• Maintaining production
• Need more electrical equipment to keep production constant
• New production
• Electricity ramps up before production causing higher initial intensities
• Environmental
• Carbon Capture equipment
• Centrifuges
• Higher tailings ponds
• Water recycling
Factors which decrease intensities
• Variable motors
• Instead of two motors
• Well pairing communication
• When well pairings share heat/pressure, they can be optimized and can potentially lower intensities
• Improved tailings management
• Non-energy intensive solutions
Wildcard Technologies • THAI technology
• Injecting air, not steam
• In-situ upgrading (lighter oil is extracted)
Validation and Checks
Oilsands Forecast Process Overview
Database of all
known oilsands
projects
Third party
production
forecast
Electrical
intensity
assessment
Demand outlook
Apply delays,
ramping to
projects based
on status
Add up of projects
provides demand
outlook
Historical Data
Implied forecast
intensities
Electrical
intensity
comparison
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
Ene
rgy
(GW
h)
2012 AESO Oilsands Forecast
2012 AESO Forecast Historical
• Includes all known projects
• Is aligned with third-party outlooks of oilsands
• Is aligned with historical and expected electricity intensities
• Incorporates new technologies
2012 AESO Oilsands Sector Forecast
Source: AESO
Forecast Average Annual
Growth Rates:
• 2011-2017: 10.3%
• 2011-2022: 7.6%
• 2011-2032: 4.7%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,0002
00
2
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
Ene
rgy
(GW
h)
2012 AESO Customer Sector Forecast
Industrial (without Oilsands) Residential Commercial Farm Oilsands
Oilsands is fastest growing sector in Alberta
Source: AESO
Thank You!
steven.everett@aeso.ca
top related