Forecasting Fashion in a Changing Global Environment Rosalie Jackson Regni Assistant Professor, Dept of Fashion Virginia Commonwealth University.

Forecasting Fashion in a Changing Global Environment

Rosalie Jackson RegniAssistant Professor, Dept of Fashion

Virginia Commonwealth University

Forecasting as a Discipline

According to Promostyl (leading forecasting company), fashion “… begins with observations of major currents in society, lifestyles, mentalities and widespread culture …as well as more ‘elitist’ expressions of culture…It is these major currents in society that set off fashion trends. …It is the public that launches fashion”

Forecasting Tools

• Fashion Curves – consumption adoption rates measured by duration & penetration: fads, trends, classics

• Pendulum swings – movement between extremes

• Fashion cycles – fixed, regularreappearance of trends.

• Recurring events seen as long-wave phenomenon

short long

Basic Rules of Forecasting

• No one can forecast in a vacuum. In order to forecast the future, we must first study the past, look at the present, and then find a logical path to the fashions of the future.

• Forecasting is more than selecting pretty things that we like. We must understand how fashion mirrors the Zeitgeist of the times

The Nine Key Drivers that impact trends

Econographics looks at key factors that influence consumer behavior (macro)

Economy TechnologyGlobalization Government

EnvironmentConsumer Psyche WellnessDemographics Retailing -from Harness the Future by Roberts

Generating Analysis and Critical Thinking

Ask students to think about what factors in our world today influence fashion:

• Economy

• Influence of other cultures/ globalization

• New male shopper/ more confident young men

• Mores/ celebrities/ music

• Environmental concerns

History: Ecological products

• Espirit owner Doug Tompkins recognized potential for future in late 80’s: staged a company “eco-audit”

• 90’s: Earth Day, Elle mag. “Green Consumer Guide”, short lived eco-fashion trend

• Environmental push is a long-term, not a short-term fashion trend

• Organic focuses on the farm – growing fibers in a way that is earth friendly, like organic food

• Sustainable has its emphasis on reuse and recycling of

manufactured products

Retailers & Manufacturers rush to be Eco-Friendly

• American Apparel, USA made, largest mfg. of T-shirts US, organic collection

• Eileen Fisher – 20% has SOME earth conscious element

• Small boutique suppliers like Indigenous & Prairie Underground

Corporate Responsibility

• Sustainability reduces landfill waste• Involves using & reusing environmentally friendly

packaging• Requires reducing manufacturing & operational

waste & pollution• Means becoming energy efficient• Needs better labeling to

communicate sustainable

message

What does the consumer want?

2006(%) 2008 (%)Fit 95 98Price 93 94Style 86 88Color 87 87Brand 52 47Made in USA 50 57Eco friendly 45 50

Source: Lifestyle Monitor survey

What can consumers do?

• Wear Vintage• Purchase clothing made of eco-friendly

fibers: bamboo, tencel, organic cotton, hemp

• Participate in activities that offset carbon footprint, like planting trees & bring own shopping bags

• Wash & dry clean less, repair & re-use instead of buying new

What can consumers do?

• Repair & re-use instead of buying new, disposable fashion

• Use recycled products: bring our own shopping bags to stores, use recycled paper

• Find alternative energy sources (solar for the home, e.g.)

• Walk or ride bikes when possible

Nobody’s Perfect Yet

• “Earth Pledge” goal: optimizing lifetime of apparel

• We can’t do everything; just do something that moves us in the right direction

• Work toward “light” garments

Nobody’s Perfect Yet

• Ask the right questions: 1. Where does product come from? 2. Where does it go? 3. What is my role in the process?• Be mindful of 4 stages of product life

1. Birth 2. Manufacturing/ Processing 3. Distribution/ use 4. End of life

What will bring about Big Changes?

• “Business as usual” needs to change, according to Lynda Grose of Earth

Pledge• Eco trend has resurfaced, but business and manufacturing more

ready to deal with it• Consumers are open to renting,

buying vintage, recycling

What are the Challenges?

• 70% of Americans believe that “green” products are just a marketing tactic (Ipsos Reid)

• Manufacturers have problems passing on increased costs to retailers; retailers unsure of whether consumer will pay more

• What will sustainability mean for luxury market? What will recycle mean for fashion industry?

• Estimates are that “going green” costs approximately 20% to 30% more to achieve

The Assignment

• Select a “big topic” that influences forecasting

• Research past, analyze present, predict future

• Tie into specific trends: now vs yesterday• Write a prediction; support it with trend

boards or a powerpoint• Deliver the forecast to an audience;

defend predictions

Forecast with Trend Boards

Creating a Forecast

BibliographyBonini, Sheila M.J. and Jeremy m. Oppenheim, “Helping

Green Products Grow”, The McKinsey Quarterly, October 2008

Brannon, Evelyn L. Fashion Forecasting. 2nd ed. New York: Fairchild, 2005

Clark, Evan.”Wal-Mart’s Ethical Sourcing Push in China”, Women’s Wear Daily, 2008

Hethorn, J and Connie Ulasewicz. Sustainable Fashion: Why Now?. New York: Fairchild, 2008

Roberts, Shirley. Harness the Future: The 9 Keys to Emerging Consumer Behaviour. Canada: John Wiley & Sons, 1998