Forces Causing Future Development Demographics Income & Wealth Tastes.
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Forces Causing Future Development
• Demographics
• Income & Wealth
• Tastes
Required Capital
• Domestic Savings
• Foreign Capital
Capital Generation
• Direct Investment (Equity)• Debt Capital
• Private-Public Markets• Role of Securitization
How Will the “New” Economy and the Bricks and Mortar Society Mesh in the 21st
Century?
Areas of Development
• Infrastructure
• Residential
• Commercial-Industrial
Distribution of World Population: 1950 and 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania
2025 1950
Source: Global Demographics, UN,
%
Life Expectancy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Japan
Sweden
Canada
France UK
Germany
US
Taiwan
Mexico
Korea
China
Thailand
Russia
Brazil
Source: Global Demographics, UN,
Projected Labor Force Growth Rate of Selected Countries:1995-2010
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
CanadaChin
aEgypt
Brazil
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico
Russia UK US
Indonesi
a
%, Annual Rate
Source: World Bank
Birth and Death Rates: Selected Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
UKChin
aEgypt
Brazil
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico
Russia
Per 1000
Source: WHO,UN
Household Size
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
India
Mex
ico
Malaysia
China
KoreaJapan
CanadaUK US
Germany
Sweden
Source: UN
Density of Population:Per Square Mile
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Singapore
Taiwan
KoreaJapan
India UK
China
France US
Brazil
Australia
Source: UN
Dependency Ratios*: Industrialized Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19501970
19902010
20302050
Young Dependents
Old Dependents
Source: Global Demographics, UN, OECD
%
*Proportion of Working Age Population
Dependency Ratios*: Developing Countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19501970
19902010
20302050
Young Dependents
Old Dependents
Source: Global Demographics, UN,
%
*Proportion of Working Age Population
Adult Literacy Rates: Selected Countries
0102030405060708090
100
Ger
man
y
Japan US
Taiwan
Thaila
nd
Mex
ico
China
Source: UNESCO
%
Spending on Education as Percentage of GDP
0123456789
Sweden
Canada
France
Malaysia US
UKJapan
Korea
Germany
India
China
%
Source: UNESCO
Share of Agriculture in GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tanzania
India
China
Malaysia
Mex
icoKorea
JapanUK US
Germany
%
Source: World Bank
Share of Industry in GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
China
Russia
Taiwan
Japan
Germany
KoreaBra
zil
Mex
ico UK US
CanadaIn
dia
Norway
%
Source: World Bank
Energy Use Per Capita: 1998
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico UK US
Source: World Development Indicators
Kg. Of Oil Equivalent
Power Consumption Per Capita: 1998
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico UK US
Source: World Development Indicators
KwH
Television Penetration: 1998
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico UK US
Source: World Development Indicators
TV sets per 1000 people
Science & Technology
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico UK US
Source: World Development Indicators
Scientists & Engineers per Million People
Computers per 100 Inhabitants
05
101520253035404550
US
Singapore
Sweden
Canada
Germany
UKJapan
Taiwan
Mex
icoBra
zil
China
Source: ITU, Milken
Communications: 1998
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico UK US
Source: World Development Indicators
Telephone Lines per 1000 people
Crowding or Persons Per Room
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India
Japan
Mex
ico UK US
Source: UN
Urban Housing Space Per Capita: 1993
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Brazil
CanadaChin
a
Germany
India UK
Source: World Development Indicators
Sq.M
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