Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010
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Tota
l
Tim
e
Lect
ure
Gro
up
Task
s
Time Title Media Content Activity Lead
Pre-
workshop
Background e-mail 1. Participates asked to read USGS report
and Floodplain Management: a new
approach….
2. Participates asked to select a geographic
region
Read material and organize themselves in to groups
assisted by instructors. Requested to bring maps
illustrating local issues if desired.
Freitag /
DePue
5
5 min. Getting Organized None Participants arranged at tables by
geographical region
Moderators help participates sit at appropriate table Freitag /
DePue
15 A
15 min. 1. Welcome Lecture,
PowerPoint
1. Purpose of workshop
2. Expected outcome
3. Day’s program (6 step, 3 Task process)
4. Know each other.
Indivudal participant activilty (name, organization,
expected outcome)
Freitag /
DePue
2 1
2. min 2. Polling – (individual task) None Polling on participants attitude toward
climate change
1. Problem (Al Gore)
2. Much to do about nothing ( more hype
that science)
3. Unsure
Indivudal participant activilty (Two container curculated
among participants. Both opaque. One containes
noodles of 3 different colors Colors correspond to 1.
problem (green), hype (red) and unsure (yellow).
Participants are asked to vote by selecting on color and
placing the noodle piece from on jar into the other.
Both jars are opaque and the selection is secret)
Freitag /
DePue
10 2
10 min. 3a. Round 1 (Group):
Determine Problem -- (Team
task)
None Determine assets or values that might be at
risk.
Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /
DePue
10
10 min. 3b. Round 1 (Group): Reporting
-- (Team task)
None Participant table teams describe assets /
values to class.
Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /
DePue
10 B
10 min. 4. Developing a Risk /
Opportunity Model -- (Lecture
with Q and A)
Lecture,
PowerPoint
Understanding risk. Introducing a working
definition
• Hazard
• Impact
• Capabilities
Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag
40 C
40 min. 5. Understanding Climate
change Science -- (Lecture with
Q and A)
Lecture,
PowerPoint
Profile / Characterize Change / Region
• Frequency
• Location
• Timing
• Severity
Listening. Question can be asked at any time. DePue
30 D
30 min 6. Impacts Lecture,
PowerPoint
Manipulate the effect (Beneficial or adverse)
Vulnerability or exposure to
• Systems
• Built environment
• Natural environment
Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag
15 15 min. 6. Break None Informal discussions Networking
15 3
15 min. 8a. Round 2: Define Risks --
(Team task)
None Identify risks to assets or values identified in
task 1a
Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /
DePue
10
10 min. 8b. Round 2: Reporting --
(Team task)
None Participant table teams describe risk
identified
Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /
DePue
30 E
30 min. 9. Identifying Capabilities -- (
Lecture with Q and A)
Lecture,
PowerPoint
Present approaches and tool with in context
of
• Mitigation and the Four phases of
emergency mangement
• Climate change concepts (retreat,
accommodate and protect)
• Case studies (NW)
Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag /
DePue
15 4
15 min. 10a. Round 3: Identify
Capabilities -- (Team task)
None Identify capabiliites the reduce risks to assets
or values identified in task 1a
Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /
DePue
10
10 min. 10b. Round 3: Reporting --
(Team task)
None Participant table teams describe capabilities Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /
DePue
20 F
20 min. 11. Discussing Strategies and
Wrap-up (Discussion by all)
None Discussion of issues present Discussion by entire class Freitag /
DePue
Strategies
237
3.95
This workshop will help floodplain managers, planners, engineers, and scientists identify Climate Change impacts for their geographic region and area of interest;
and identify adaption strategies. Group activity will include a region specific climate change scenario used to identify threatened values/assets associated with
specific floodplains, applying a 6 step approach to identify adaptation measures. Instructors: Michael DePue, PE, CFM, PBS&J; Bob Freitag, CFM, University of
Washington
Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate
5/20/2010
1
Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate
Bob Freitag CFM (University of Washington
Michael DePue PE, CFM (PBS&J)
Originally published on Tuesday, December 23, 2008
E-mail cartoon Printer-friendly
5/20/2010
2
Adapting to a Changing Climate
1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team
task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)
Floods Are Not the Problem
Six Questions to ask when choosing a plan to control the effects of flooding:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or
enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for
enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-
enhancement strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance
the resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy
introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
5/20/2010
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A New Vocabulary
• Flood: Neither positive or negative; it is simply water spilling over its banks. A change in condition that could be a hazard or lead to an opportunity
• Hazard: Often seen as something with a potentially adverse effect. “Change” may be a better word.
• Change: A change in condition could be a hazards or lead to an opportunity
• Opportunities: can be viewed as being similar but opposite of risk; the benefits
• Risk: a function of “Change” in condition, Impacts and Capabilities. Risk and Opportunities are different sides of the same coin.
• Disaster: a realized risk
• Benefit: a realized opportunity.
• Mitigation and adaptation ( with flooding being a secondary hazard)
• Adaptation: Retreat, accommodate, protect
Resiliency –“the ability to tolerate change”
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Ecological Resilience vs. Engineering Resilience
• Ecological Resilience is a Better Framework
Engineering Resilience Ecological Resilience
Seeks stability Accepts inevitability of change
Resists disturbance Absorbs and recovers from disturbance
One equilibrium point Multiple, non-stable equilibria
Single acceptable outcome Multiple acceptable outcomes
Predictability Unpredictability
Fail-safe Safe-fail
Narrow tolerances Wide tolerances
Rigid boundaries and edges Flexible boundaries and edges
Efficiency of function Persistence of function
Redundancy of structure Redundancy of function
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A Resilient City Case Study: Snoqualmie, Washington
• Case Study: Snoqualmie, Washington– 698 of 700 housing units in floodplain– 13 disaster flood related declarations between 1965 and
2001– Water is clean, slow-moving and comes with warning – Flooding benefits downstream communities. – Most severely floodprone homes have been elevated.
(several hundred since 1986)– City amenities defined by river and river location
• Climate change is increasing flood frequency. • Snoqualmie will always flood. • Snoqualmie is becoming resilient to flood damage.
5/20/2010
6
Northeast
Southeast
Midwest
Great PlainsSouthwest
Northwest
USGS
Teams
• Northeast
• Southeast
• Midwest
• Great Plains
• Southwest
• Northwest
• Alaska
• Islands
• Coasts
1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine
Problem and Reporting -- (Team task)
4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)
5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)
6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts
-- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and
Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture
with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and
Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up
(Discussion by all)
5/20/2010
1
Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate
Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting
Adapting to a Changing Climate
1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team
task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)
5/20/2010
2
Six Step Process
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
5/20/2010
1
Adapting to a Changing Climate:
Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model
Six Step Process
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
5/20/2010
2
Risks and Opportunities
Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)
Focus on changePrimary and secondary
Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse
Capabilities
Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools
Location Systems: Money
Frequency Built environment Power
Severity Natural environment Timing
Timing
Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.
Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity
Risks and Opportunities
Focus on Primary and secondary hazard
or disturbance
• Location• Frequency• Severity• Timing
Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse
or exposure
Systems: • Built environment• Natural environment• Societal, political, and organizational
Strategies made up of approaches and tools
• Money • Power • Timing
5/20/2010
3
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Layers
Exposed inventory (e.g. Floodprone parcels with without road accesses)
Parcels – inventory
Change 1 (floodplain can be raster or vector)
Change 2 (floodway can be raster or vector)
Real World (floodplain)
Infrastructures - inventory (e.gaccess roads)
Points
Polygons
Lines
Risk /Opportunity = f ( exposed Inventory / change )
•HAZARD/CHANGE•Impacts•Capabilities
RISK / (OPPORTUNITY)
ASSESSMENT
RISK/OPP.
ACCEPTABLE RISK (ACHIEVEABLE OPPORTUNITY)
UNACCEPTABLE RISK/OPP.
RISK REDUCTION /
OPPORTUNITY ENHANSEMENT
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
Natural Environment- Climate- Biology- GeologyBuilt Environment- Structures- InfrastructureSystems
5/20/2010
4
Natural Processes Must Drive Solutions
• Case Study: New York, New York– The Catskill/Delaware watershed provides 90% of the drinking water for
New York City. The 1600 square mile watershed allows excellentfiltration with some chlorination to kill microorganisms.
– Development in the Catskills threatened the ability of the watershed tofilter the water naturally and the EPA began to demand that New Yorkinstall a new filtration system costing billions.
• The Six Questions revisited:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement
strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
5/20/2010
1
Adapting to a Changing Climate:
Profiling the Change
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2
Outline
• Introduction
• Overview of Broad Trends
• Impact of Climate Change in the United States by region
– Frequency
– Location
– Timing
– Severity
What is “Climate Change”?
• “Climate Change” is the term for the change in thestatistical distribution of weather over periods oftime that range from decades to millions of years.
• In recent decades general climate change has beentrending towards a gradual warming of the earth’satmosphere and oceans. This upward temperaturetrend is usually called “Global Warming”
5/20/2010
3
Global Warming
Source of table: Global Warming Art; Source of data: NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen, et al, 2006)
Climate Change in the United States.
• Key findings– Average U.S. temperature has risen more than 2°F
over the past 50 years– Precipitation has increased an average of about 5
percent over the past 50 years• Wet areas wetter, dry areas drier.
– Heaviest downpours have increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century• Strongest increases in the wettest places.
– Many types of extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years.
From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.
5/20/2010
4
Climate Change in the United States.
• Key findings (continued)– Destructive energy of Atlantic hurricanes has increased
– In eastern Pacific, the strongest hurricanes have become stronger since the 1980s even while the total number of storms has decreased.
– Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S. coasts
– For cold-season storms outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are projected to become stronger.
– Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly and this is projected to continue
From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.
Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective 2009
From: Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/)
Temperature Trends
Sea Level Trends
5/20/2010
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U.S. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise 2009
From: “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.” Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January 15, 2009
Climate Change in the United States.
• Other trends occurring on regional scale– A longer growing season
– Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain
– Reduced snowpack
– Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers
– Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows
– In some areas, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent
– Increase in percentage of land area experiencing drought
– Warmer coast waters and more hurricanes
From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought
(USGS, Abrupt Climate Change, 2008)
Water infrastructure will have to be redesigned. Water use will have to adjust to limited water availability.
From: CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.
http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm
Increase in mean global temperature of 1.8°C is likely to lengthen the growing season in higher latitudes. Changes in the Mid-latitudes are mixed. (USDA, 2001)ers.usda.gov/publications/aib765/aib765-8.pdf
From: Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8 June 2001
A longer growing season
5/20/2010
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General Trends Commonly Found in CC ReportsType Scale Impact Source
Cyclones Global Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities IPCC 2001
Cyclones USA Warmer coast waters and more hurricanes NOAA 2009
Land Cover USA A longer growing season NOAA 2009
Multi-Hazard USAMany types of extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense
during the past 40 to 50 years. NOAA 2009
Precipitation Global Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities IPCC 2001
Precipitation Global Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought IPCC 2001
Precipitation Global More intense precipitation events IPCC 2001
Precipitation USA In some areas, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent NOAA 2009
Precipitation USA Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain NOAA 2009
Precipitation USA Reduced snowpack NOAA 2009
Precipitation USA Wet areas wetter, dry areas drier. NOAA 2009
Sea Level Rise Global Increased coastal erosion due to increased sea levels USEPA 2009
Sea Level Rise USASea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S.
coasts NOAA 2009
Storm Tracks USAFor cold-season storms outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting northward
and the strongest storms are projected to become stronger. NOAA 2009
Temperatures Global Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas IPCC 2001
Temperatures GlobalHigher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all
land areasIPCC 2001
Temperatures Global Increase of heat index over land areas IPCC 2001
Temperatures Global Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas IPCC 2001
Temperatures USA Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers NOAA 2009
Temperatures USA Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows NOAA 2009
Northeast
Southeast
Midwest
Great PlainsSouthwest
Northwest
USGS
5/20/2010
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Northeast
• Impacts– More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F– A longer growing season– Increased heavy precipitation– Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as
rain– Reduced snowpack– Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers– Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river
flows– Rising sea surface temperatures and sea level
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Northeast
• Extreme heat and declining air quality
• Agricultural production likely to be adversely affected as favorable climates shift
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Northeast
• Climate change illustrated:
– Massive changes in the environment of the northeast: A change in climate equivalent to moving upstate New York to the latitude of South Carolina!
Source: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
Northeast
• Challenge: Urban Flooding
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency
Red shading shows a rise of 1.5 meters
Downtown Boston
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
10
Northeast
• Case Study: Chesapeake Bay
– The combination of sea level rise and land subsidence has caused a relative rise in sea height of one foot over the past century.
Areas at risk by height of sea
level rise
Southeast
• For the Southeast:– Annual average temperature has
risen about 2°F since 1970• Greatest increase in winter
– Since 1901, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent
– Noticeable increase in heavy downpours in many areas
– Increase in percentage of land area experiencing drought in last 30 years
– Trend is towards warmer coast waters and more hurricanes• Expect individual hurricanes to result
in more rainfall than in the past
– Total future precipitation trends unclear• Models disagree
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Southeast
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Southeast
• Challenge: Hurricanes
– The number of large hurricanes will increase
– Their impact will be more wide-spread and severe
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Southeast
Source: Scientific American
Southeast
Source: Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
TampaClearwater
St. Petersburg
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Southeast
Challenge: Loss of wetlands as a
protective barrier
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Midwest
• Longer growing season• Increases in heat waves, floods, droughts, insects,
and weeds will present• Likely increase in precipitation in winter and
spring, more heavy downpours, and greater evaporation in summer would lead to more periods of both floods and water deficits.
• Significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels• During the summer increasing heat waves,
reduced air quality, and insect and waterborne diseases.
• Native species are very likely to face increasing threats from rapidly changing climate conditions, pests, diseases, and invasive species
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Midwest
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Great Plains
• Projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency
• Agriculture, ranching, and natural lands are very likely to also be stressed by rising temperatures.
• Climate change is likely to affect native plant and animal species by altering key habitats
• Ongoing shifts in the region’s population from rural areas to urban centers will interact with a changing climate
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Great Plains
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Great Plains
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Southwest
• Water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for tradeoffs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict.
• Increasing temperature, drought, wildfire, and invasive species will accelerate transformation of the landscape.
• Increased frequency and altered timing of flooding will increase risks to people, ecosystems, and infrastructure.
• Unique tourism and recreation opportunities are likely to suffer.
• Cities and agriculture face increasing risks from a changing climate.
• Ecological thresholds are likely to be crossed throughout the region, causing major disruptions to ecosystems and to the benefits they provide to people.
• Quality of life will be affected by increasing heat stress, water scarcity, severe weather events, and reduced availability of insurance for at-risk properties
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Southwest
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Southwest
• Challenge: Effects of mudslides as a result of brush and forest fires
Northwest
• Declining springtime snowpack leads to reduced summer stream flows, straining water supplies.
• Increased insect outbreaks, wildfires, and changing species composition in forests
• Salmon and other coldwater species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer stream flows
• Sea-level rise along vulnerable coastlines will result in increased erosion and the loss of land.
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Northwest
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Alaska
• Longer summers and higher temperatures are causing drier conditions, even in the absence of strong trends in precipitation.
• Lakes are declining in area.• Thawing permafrost damages
roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure.
• Coastal storms increase risks to villages and fishing fleets.
• Displacement of marine species will affect key fisheries
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
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Alaska
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Islands
• The availability of freshwater is likely to be reduced
• Island communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems are vulnerable to coastal inundation due to sea-level rise and coastal storms.
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
5/20/2010
20
Islands
From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Longer growing season
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Hydraulic
StructuresMore vegetation on
levees
More vegetation on
dams
New environmental
permit reqs for
maintenance
Changes to surface
roughness and
runoff times
Changes to runoff
coefficients
Evapotranspiration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
More difficulty
obtaining aerial
topo due to
vegetation
Increased
roughness in
channels
Wider floodplains
due to more
roughness
Potential for
additional or new
debris in floods
More topo coverage
needed for bigger
floods-roughness
A longer growing season
5/20/2010
21
Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought
Increased summer
drying and risk of
drought
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Hydraulic
Structures
Less vegetation on
levees—more
erosion
Less vegetation on
dams—more
erosion
Loss of endangered
species and env
permit issues
Changes to surface
roughness and
runoff times
Changes to runoff
coefficients
Evapotranspiration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
Dust storms,
limiting aerial flight
Less vegetation in
channel, more
erosion
Harder to convince
public of flood risk
in drought
More flashy flows,
unsteady routing
needed
Desert pavement
formation ?
Fire risk to pump
stations, etc.
Increased fire risk
with associated
runoff changes
Less saturation time
for structures
Groundwater table
increases or
decrease
More intense precipitation events
More intense
precipitation events
Topography
Riverine
Hydrology
Riverine
Hydraulics
Hydraulic
StructuresChanges to PMP/
PMF for Dams
Changes to interior
drainage design
precip for levees
Design rainfalls
outdated
Changes to AMC
Change to precip
S-curve
Time of
concentration
changes
Changes to erosion
of landscape
Possible need for
unsteady routing
due to flash effects
More structure
overtopping
Wider floodplains
More erosive flows,
geomorph changes
Increased pluvial
erosion near
structures
More topo coverage
needed for bigger
floods
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
Additional
saturation for
structures
Groundwater table
increases or
decrease
Rating curves must
be bigger for higher
flows
Rating curves must
be bigger for higher
flows
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
More breakouts to
other basins with
higher flows
5/20/2010
22
Risks and Opportunities
Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)
Focus on changePrimary and secondary
Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse
Capabilities
Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools
Location Systems: Money
Frequency Built environment Power
Severity Natural environment Timing
Timing
Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.
Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity
The physical and biological changes driving strategies:
• Global warming and associated changes in the amount of rain and season run off, giving us less storage in the form of snow and ice often resulting in higher summer peaks and lower summer flows; and more stream energy, causing more channel instability.
• Changes in vegetative cover, caused by global warming and increased urbanization contributing to soil erosion, less vegetative friction, less transevaporation, reduced soil moisture, and greater fluctuations in discharges in associated rivers.
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Projected Flows – Rivers draining the
Cascades
Capabilities and Tools
• Case Study: Davenport, Iowa– The City of Davenport floods regularly and began
looking into the construction of a floodwall.– After consideration, the City declined to build the wall
and instead began to buy-up flood-prone properties.
• The Six Questions revisited:– 1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?– 2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for
enhancement?– 3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-
enhancement strategies available?– 4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the
resource?– 5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
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QUESTIONS?
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Adapting to a Changing Climate:
Identifying Impacts
Risks and Opportunities
Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)
Focus on changePrimary and secondary
Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse
Capabilities
Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools
Location Systems: Money
Frequency Built environment Power
Severity Natural environment Timing
Timing
Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.
Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity
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Watershed processes
Profiling Change (Hazard)Location, Frequency, Severity and Timing
Natural Geological Environments
• Basics – Watershed, energy, sediment
• Karst
• Glaciations
• Loess and ground cover
• Climate
• Permafrost
• Other
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What does a river do -- functions(represents a risk / opportunity)
• Transports sediment
• Drains the watershed
• Provides fresh water supply.
• Transports chemicals and nutrients
• Provides Energy
• Provides habitat for living things.
What do we do to and with rivers?We use rivers to:
• Provide water for living --crops and drinking
• Discard waists
• Provide cooling for domestic and Industrial uses
• Transportation
• Support fisheries
• Recreate and enjoy
• Provide a sense of place, barriers, buffers….
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Elements Of Channel Formation
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Glacial Impact Areas
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Loess
Wind Blown Silt
From Glaciers
Rock Flour
Stream Banks Stand Vertical
When Stable
Water Distribution(Total Units)
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Topographic Influence
Average Runoff Patterns
Low ----- Western Plains & Southwest
High ----- New England, Appalachians, Gulf Coast
& Pacific Northwest
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Figure 2. Permafrost distribution in the Arctic. "Most of the Arctic is covered by ice and snow for more than eight and even up to twelve months a year, but conditions are highly variable, ranging from snow several metres deep each winter to the polar deserts of northern Greenland with only 50- 100 mm of precipitation annually. A large portion of the Arctic is underlain by permafrost. Permafrost, defined as ground that does not thaw for two or more years, can reach a thickness of up to 1000 metres, as it does on the North Slope of Alaska. It extends through as much as 50% of Canada and 80% of Alaska (Clark, 1988)." Image credit: Philippe Rekacewicz, 2005, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library based on International Permafrost Association (1998) Circumpolar Active-Layer Permafrost System (CAPS), version 1.0..
Profiling Change (Hazard)Location, Frequency, Severity and Timing
Natural Biological Environments• Food Webs and Trophic Ecology
• Natural cycles – Carbon, Nitrogen…
• Product of disturbances
• Need for diversity
• Importance of the hyporheic zone
• River continuum corridors
• Four diminutions
• Serial discontinuity
• Corridor elements
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Food Webs &Trophic Ecology
Input environment Output environment
Ecosystem
Food Webs &Trophic Ecology
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Natural cycles – Carbon, Nitrogen…
Nutrient Spiraling
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Product of DisturbancesFlood Pulse Concept
http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y2785E/y2785e02.htm Tibee Creek Mississippi
http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/CS/SSB/images/history_center_flood/keizer_1.jpg 1964
Lateral and Temporal Dimension
Characteristics of disturbancesImportant temporally and spatially
• Frequency – number of times an event or disturbance occurs over a fixed time period, referred to more accurately as probability (e.g. probability of a flood of a given magnitude over some time period)
• Duration – The time span over which the disturbance occurs (e.g., flooded time period)
• Magnitude – this size of the disturbance, this may refer to the quantity of the disturbance (e.g., flood stage) or the area covered (e.g., acres flooded)
These concepts are evident in engineering design in the form of design limits (e.g., the use of ‘depth-duration-intensity’ charts for precipitation used for designing runoff storage)
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Complexity and Diversity
Riverine systems are highly variable in space and time even under natural conditions. Restoration or other actions should not seek to homogenize the system.
Think about the processes that create disturbances and thus create diversity
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/krr/photo/changal/krr571.html
Hyporheic Corridor Concept
Vertical Dimension
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Commonly measured substances related to water quality
• Light
• Temperature
• Dissolved ions
• Suspended solids
• Nutrients and gases
• Toxics such as metals and pesticides/herbicides
River Continuum Conceptual
Diagram
Longitudinal dimension
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Four dimensions of river ecosystems
Serial Discontinuity
• Tributaries
• Dams
• Lakes
• Diversions
• Human inputshttp://www.pmc.ucsc.edu/~rparsons/ San_Juan/0007.jpg
http://www.airphotona.com/image.asp?imageid=354&catnum=2000&keyword=&country=&state=&pagenum=3
Interruption of longitudinal connectivity
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Taiga, boreal forests
Serial Continuity
Tundra
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Natural Processes Must Drive Solutions
• Case Study: New York, New York
– The Catskill/Delaware watershed provides 90% of the drinking water forNew York City. The 1600 square mile watershed allows excellentfiltration with some chlorination to kill microorganisms.
– Development in the Catskills threatened the ability of the watershed tofilter the water naturally and the EPA began to demand that New Yorkinstall a new filtration system costing billions.
• The Six Questions revisited:
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
Our Built Environment is often the Change (Hazard)
Our Built
Environment is
ALSO be
impacted.
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Our Relationship to Rivers
• The Value of Rivers and Floodplains
– History of Relationship:
• Hunter-Gatherer Societies
• Early Agrarian Societies to Urban-Agricultural Civilization
• Eighteenth and early Nineteenth Centuries River Valley Settlement in America
• Mid-Twentieth Century to Present, Urban Riverfronts and Floodplain Urbanization
– The Cincinnati Experience
Our Relationship to Rivers
• Case Study: Chicago, Illinois
– The Chicago Stockyards were one of the economic engines of Chicagofrom it’s beginning.
– However, the stockyards generated enormous amounts of waste andpollution that was directed to Lake Michigan. The Lake was also thesource of Chicago’s fresh water supply.
• The Six Questions revisited:
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
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Various (often conflicting) Philosophies of Flood Management
• Historically the three main agencies concerned with flood management have been:– USACE: Managing Change, Often with Big
Footprints
– Natural Resources Conservation Services: Smaller Footprints, but Cumulative Effects
– National Flood Insurance Program: Focusing on the Effects of Change
• No Adverse Impact (NAI)
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Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate
Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting --
Adapting to a Changing Climate
1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team
task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)
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Six Step Process
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
Worksheets (Presented for information only.
Participants not expected to complete forms)
To approaches or tools lie with the:
Change agent (hazard) (changing frequency (levee), severity, (storage), location (rerouting) or timing (LID)
Impact reduction: (retreating off floodplain, accommodating flooding (wet floodproofing) or Protection (diking around structure)
Capabilities: (sharing risk, amassing political strength…)
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Adapting to a Changing Climate:
Identifying Capabilities
Risks and Opportunities
Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)
Focus on changePrimary and secondary
Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse
Capabilities
Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools
Location Systems: Money
Frequency Built environment Power
Severity Natural environment Timing
Timing
Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.
Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity
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Six Step Process
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
Capabilities – Approaches and Tools
Basic approaches (adaptation)1. Prevent (secondary hazards)*2. Accommodate 3. Retreat4. Protect
Themes1. Work from macro scale down2. Smallest foot print probably best3. Water is a resources not a risk -- opportunity 4. Think seasonally, long term 5. Consider geology and biology6. Exploit beneficial processes then assess for NAI
* Within the Climate change Community “Mitigation” refers to reducing carbon emissions. Adaptation often includes may of the more traditional mitigation approaches advocated by the floodplain management community.
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Any River gage
Acc
om
mo
dat
e
Levee height .
Any River gage
Minimaldamage
Area of Major Impact
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Levee height .
Any River gage
Minimaldamage
PREVENTABLE damage
Extreme damage
Levee height .
Any River gage
Minimaldamage
PREVENTABLE damage
Extreme damage
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Levee height .
Any River gage
Minimaldamage
PREVENTABLE damage
Flood stage lowered –increasing
storage
Levee height .
Any River gage
Minimaldamage
Extreme damage
PREVENTABLE damage
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Watershed processes
Water Hazards / Changes:Land cover / land use functions
Population growth as a Hazard: Change agent
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Water Hazards / Changes:Land cover / land use functions
Storing Water within higher watershed
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No Beavers
Beavers reintroduced
Storing Water within higher watershed
• Dam Types
– Beaver dams
– Check dams
– Timber dams
– Portadam®
– Earthen dams
– Reinforced Concrete dam
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Site Overview Map
Total Storage Gained: 850.5 acre-feet or ~ 8% of Required Peak Flow Reduction to Prevent Flooding
Little Eagle Lake dam
Eagle Lake dam
Beaverdam Lake dam Green River dam #1
Green River dam #2
Howard Hanson Dam
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Developed flood friendly environment to: accommodate :
• critical storage areas
• low-impact development
• flooding
Storing Water within middle and lower watershed / floodplain
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Setback Levee ExampleBioengineered- Narita Levee
Four Years Later
Source: King County
Approaches: Structural and Nonstructural
• Rethinking structural methods
– Setback levees
– Lowering levees (controlled breaching)
– Creating friction (LWD, Drop structures, check dams
– Management of larger dams to mimic seasonal flows
– Detention / retention
– Underground storage
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Approaches: Structural and Nonstructural
• Nonstructural Approaches: Low-Impact Development– upper and middle watershed
can be developed / managed to flatten hydrograph and maintain upstream storage and infiltration.
– Lower watershed and Floodplain can be developed such that post development hydrograph equals or improves predevelopment conditions.
Approaches: Structural and Nonstructural
• Case Study: Buck Hollow River, Oregon– The Buck Hollow watershed is highly susceptible to erosion.– 130 years of grazing and farming have deteriorated the
watershed. – Water was needed by local ranchers and farmers and salmon
• The Six Questions revisited:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for
enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-
enhancement strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the
resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
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Capabilities – Approaches and Tools
Basic Tools1. Police Powers 2. Capital Improvements3. Plan Persuade -- provide information to facilitate action
Themes1. Little acceptance, little action 2. Police Powers only work in environment of change3. Capital Improvements only work in an environment of need4. Private initiatives have greatest impact.5. Government can provide leadership.6. Local government / property rights / water rights can detract from a big
picture watershed based approach
Police Powers
– 14th Amendment: “…nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”
– 10th Amendment: The federal government has the power to regulate only matters specifically delegated to it by the Constitution. • The Commerce Clause: (Article I, Section 8, Clause 3) of the United
States Constitution, empower the United States Congress, "To regulate Commerce … among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes.”
– 5th Amendment: says, “…nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation
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LOCAL GOVERNMENT POWERS
REGULATION:
Building Codes
Zoning Ordinances
Subdivision Ordinances
Floodplain Ordinances
Critical Area Management
ACQUISITION/INCENTIVES
Fee Simple Acquisition
Easements
TDRs
TAXATIONPreferential TaxationSpecial AssessmentsExactions
SPENDINGPublic Buildings and FacilitiesCapital Improvements Programming
Police Powers
Property rights
Land ownership rights are sometimes referred to as a bundle of sticks with each stick representing a right such as the right to possess, sell, lease property, develop, mine ore, etc. But not all rights out of the bundle held by the owner are owned by the owner. In the United States, no owner ever holds the fullest possible bundle.
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Property rights
Regulations that “go too far” are takings
Public Purpose Test:Regulations must serve a legitimate public interest.
Relationship Test:Regulations must have a strong relationship to goals sought.
Economic impact:Some economic benefit must remain to the owner.
Water Rights
– In those areas where rainfall, and thus water, is relatively abundant (typically east of the Mississippi River) riparianwater rights are generally in force.
– A riparian owner is permitted to use all the water it needs for its “proper purposes,” returning to the stream all that is not consumed, without liability to downstream riparian owners. Individual states, especially courts, have defined what constitute proper purposes, and statutes in each state must be consulted for specifics. Usually, what is proper consists of uses for individual households, farms, municipalities, and businesses.
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Ownership
Land and Property Acquisition
ADDITIONAL TOOLS
• Fee-simple Acquisition of Undeveloped Land
• Advance Site Acquisition (Land Banking)
• Purchase Sellback/Leaseback
• Purchase Option (Right of First Refusal)
• Sword of Damocles Provision
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Plans and Planning
– Comprehensive land use
– Hazard Mitigation plans
Building Standards
– Special building standards
– Building codes
Development Regulations
– Zoning ordinances
– Overly zones
– Bonus and incentive zoning
– Performance or impact zoning
– Planned Unit Development (PUD)
– Subdivision ordinance
Information and Community Participation
– Public information
– Disclosure
Environmental Management
– Wetland protection
– Stormwater management
Public Facilities Policies
– Capital improvements plan
Land and Property Acquisition
– Acquisition of land
– Structural buy-outs
– Relocation of existing dev.
– Acquisition of dev. rights and easements
– Transfer of development rights
Taxation and Fiscal Policies
– Preferential (reduced) taxation
– Impact taxes or special assessments
TDRs
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Capabilities (Risk/Opportunity)
Approaches: (Adaptation)Create balanced safe to fail
communities
1. Prevent: Detention2. Protect: Strengthen
levees, dams …3. Accommodate: Wet
floodproofing…4. Retreat: Move critical
structures off / above the floodplain …
Tools:• Historically the three main agencies
concerned with flood management have been:– USACE: Managing Change, Often with
Big Footprints– Natural Resources Conservation
Services: Smaller Footprints, but extensive cumulative effects
– National Flood Insurance Program: Focusing on the Effects of Change
• Others:– No Adverse Impact (NAI)• NFIP/ Biological Opinion• Insurance (excess coverage)• USACE advanced measures• Businesses / home owners informed of
Contingency Planning needs.• Purchase / transfer development rights
Our Built Environment can be the Change (Hazard)
Location, Frequency, Severity and Timing
Our Built Environment can ALSObe impacted. We need to focus on the:
• Begin with the basin. Landscape scale .
• Exploit (+) the Biological Landscape
– Conservation, rehabilitation and restoration
– A rule of thumb --complexity and diversity
•
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Reducing risks to assets and values
Examples of risk reduction methods focusing on
• The basin
• Channels, floodplains and riparian areas
• Biological Landscape– Conservation, rehabilitation and restoration
– A rule of thumb -- complexity and diversity
• Green Belt Movement International – a case study in addressing a hazard
Live with flooding
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Elk: the primary prey of wolves. Many fear that wolves will decimate the Yellowstone elk population. Source: Oregon State University
The gray wolf. The Yellowstone wolves were removed in 1926 and reintroduced in 1995. Source: Oregon State University.
Wolves
Green Belt Movement
Wangari Maathai
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Risks /Opportunities
• Floodprone areas not fully developed
• Market forces will result in redevelopment
• Change in how land owners view flooding
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Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate
Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting
Adapting to a Changing Climate
1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team
task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)
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1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?
3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?
5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
Six Step Process
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Adapting to a Changing Climate:
Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)
Risks and Opportunities
Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)
Focus on changePrimary and secondary
Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse
Capabilities
Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools
Location Systems: Money
Frequency Built environment Power
Severity Natural environment Timing
Timing
Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.
Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity
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• We’ll define a strategy as:
– package of approaches, and tools
– applied over time,
– to achieve an objective.
For floodplains, most strategies are attempts to manage a changing river within the context of a fixed built environment.
Strategies
Strategies: Work with, Not against Rivers
• Flood Management Strategies– Solutions that restore, conserve, or enhance beneficial
values
– Science-driven policy, not policy-driven science
– Flexibility in approaches
– Solutions that promote resiliency
– System-oriented outlook
– An inclusive process that is, to the fullest extent possible, fair to all
– Solutions with greater, long-term benefit
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Choosing the Best Strategy
• Choosing a Strategy• Managing the Change• Decision-Making Tools
– Scientific Method– National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)– Benefit-Cost Analysis
• Tool Sheets– Using the Tool Sheets– Assessing Flood Characteristic– Assessing the Effects of Flooding– Assessing the Effects on Others– Assessing Capabilities
Strategies: Work with, Not against Rivers
• Case Study: Flooding of Interstate 5 in Washington– The Chehalis River, flowing through several counties and cities has a history of
flooding. Despite this, several of the communities have made little effort torestrict further development on the floodplain. Flooding has becomegenerally more severe.
– The Chehalis is an important watershed for fisheries.– The demand for water has also increased within the watershed, thus stressing
water-rights issues
• The Six Questions revisited:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies
available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
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Six Step Process + ONE
1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement
strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the
resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce? 6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?7. The Decision:
– Do your homework and analysis, but don’t forget to use yourintuition. Remember that involving all stakeholders will result inmore support for the strategy, and may give you ideas that youwouldn’t have thought of.
What’s Next?
• The Six Questions (Plus One) reviewed:– 1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?
» What’s important to you?– 2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?
» How is it being threatened or how can you improve it?– 3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?
» What natural, engineered, or societal systems can be used to develop strategies toprotect or enhance your values or assets?
– 4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?» Do all the possibilities actually protect you or enhance the resource over the long
term?– 5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?
» Do your solutions bring up new problems or provide other benefits?– 6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?
» Is your strategy worth the cost?– 7. The Decision
» Do your homework and analysis, but don’t forget to use your intuition. Rememberthat involving all stakeholders will result in more support for the strategy, and maygive you ideas that you wouldn’t have thought of.
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Questions and Answers
top related