Feast or Famine: Do we have enough food?...Feast or Famine: Do we have enough food? Trajectory Trends Breakfast October 2016. Introduction. Close to home: foods and fads Brexit, inflation,

Feast or Famine:Do we have enough food?

Trajectory Trends Breakfast October 2016

Introduction

Close to home: foods and fads

Brexit, inflation, cost of living, personalised diets, all day eating, health, ethical consumption, food waste, recycling, sustainability

Global Food Issues

The problem: resource scarcity & a growing population

Global Population GDP Per Capita (emerging

and developing world)

7.3bn2015

8.8bn2035

$10,6002015

$14,4002021

World Food Engel Curve

USA

China/India

UNWTO, Government Office for Science, IMF WEO April 2016

Our Food Culture

A brief history of food

Pre-WWII Rationing and post-war

60s/70s – ‘foreign’ food

TV Dinners

Convenience food Modern day plenty

Mealtimes: a thing of the past

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

05:0

0

05:3

0

06:0

0

06:3

0

07:0

0

07:3

0

08:0

0

08:3

0

09:0

0

09:3

0

10:0

0

10:3

0

11:0

0

11:3

0

12:0

0

12:3

0

13:0

0

13:3

0

14:0

0

14:3

0

15:0

0

15:3

0

16:0

0

16:3

0

17:0

0

17:3

0

18:0

0

18:3

0

19:0

0

19:3

0

20:0

0

20:3

0

21:0

0

21:3

0

22:0

0

22:3

0

23:0

0

% of people eating, weekdays (UK)

1974 2016

BBC Daily Life 1974, Trajectory’s Study of Time 2016

10:30 – 2.05m

people having brunch

16:10 – 1.5m

people having afternoon meal

The role of food

11%

34%55%

Health Enjoyment Practicality

22%

39%

39%

1995 2013

Driving shoppers’

consumption decisions

Appetite for Change, Kantar 2014

Health and Personalisation

Food Poverty

8%

33%

21%

25%24%21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Foods & drinks high in fat

and/or sugar

Fruit & vegetables

Eatwell plate comparison for low

income and all households

Eatwell plate recommendations

2014 - all households

2014 - low income (decile 1)

Source: Ipsos MORI; Household Finances Research, July 2016 / Food Statistics Pocketbook 2015; Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

In 2014,

62% of the food

we ate was grown

in the UK

Only 73% could

have been grown

in the UK

Opportunities for change

Technology to the rescue

Robotics Agriculture Synthetics

Local food systems

Implications

Two-tier food systems

For an elite, locally grown, healthy food For the rest, increasingly processed food

“[There will be] a two-class food system. One class will eat industrialized food produced as

cheaply as possible at the expense of its workers and natural resources. The other will enjoy

home gardens and locally and sustainably produced food, at greater cost.”

- Professor Marion Nestle, NYU

New health priorities & the assault on pleasure

59.3%

40.2%

35.5% 35.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Dementia Cancer Diabetes Heart/BP

Growth in illness

prevalence 2010-2035

Source: British Household Panel Survey/English Longitudinal Study of Ageing/Trajectory

Forced changes of diet

Summary

Current food trends are unsustainable – demand will outstrip supply

Technology changes can take us so far, but the dangers extend to health and stability

Opportunities for change are apparent, with social, commercial and political implications

The role of food in our lives is changing: more expressive, personalised, performative

Unpalatable changes to diet are inevitable

With new diets and pressures, new social rules and taboos govern behaviour

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Tom Johnson

Director

tom@trajectorypartnership.com