Factors Affecting Demand for Food Text adapted from The World Food Problem Leathers & Foster, 2009 ttp:// Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389.
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Factors Affecting Demand for Food
Text adapted from
The World Food Problem
Leathers & Foster, 2009
ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389
Age Structure
• Population Pyramids – indicate age structure
• Developing countries – have much higher
percentage of young people
• Developed countries – have even distribution
of age groups
http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg
http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg
Momentum
• Changes in age structure affect population for decades– Example: Baby Boom
• If a developing country achieves replacement fertility rates for adults– Population growth
continues for decades – Because there are more
childrenBaby boom age pyramid
Age structure for China (1990)
Great Leap Forward Famine, 1959-1960
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/images/charts/p_19a_m.gif
Dependency Ratios
• Ratio of dependents to working adults
• Burden of dependent children per adult greater in developing country– Developed nation ex:
• 0.21 children/adult
– Developing nation ex:• .77 chlidren/adult
http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg
Age Structure determines future calorie needs
• Calorie needs are different at different ages
• Age structure allows prediction of future calorie needs – as current population grows up
• Need for food can grow faster than the population – if more adults than children
• Adults require more food
http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg
Other factors affecting future food needs
• Number of Pregnant women
• Amount of physical activity
• Height of population – indicates nutrition level
• Population + demand/person + more meat– Huge synergistic effect
Sierra Leone 8 year old girl
More Meat
• As incomes rise, people eat more meat– less cereals
• Meat production requires plant calories
– Average 6:1 conversion ratio
• Developing countries eat 4,224 Calories from plants– 2,255 directly from plants– Plus 315 meat calories
(12.5%)• Requires 1,969 plant calories
to produce meat
http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/20/63/23036320.jpg
More Meat
• If people in developing countries ate 15% meat– Would increase total
plant calories required • to 4,591/person
– Equivalent increase in demand to 8.7% increase in population
http://delishfood.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/img_4381.JPG
More Meat
• If people in developing nations ate amount of meat eaten in developed nations (27% calories)– Would require 6,200
plant-derived calories
– 47% increase
http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t49/cinzia326/7025.jpg
Optimistic Future Scenario: Next 50 yrs
• Per capita income increases• Population growth of 50%
– Fertility declines
• Food supplies keep pace with demand
• Life expectancy increases• Average height increases• Age structure changes toward
fewer children• Food demand grows by 101%Morocco: middle income
country
Same impact if pessimistic future
• Self-Correction on impact with lower quality of life:– If prosperity declines
• Food supply doesn’t keep up with demand
• Population grows more rapidly • Less decline in fertility rates
– But need less food because• Age structure: more children• Average height: less change• Calories per capita low
– Undernutrition
• Dietary diversification small
– Impact: 98% growth in food demandSierra Leone mother
http://www.voices-unabridged.org/photo_gala/gala_dec_2006_pt_18.jpg
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