Eye on Alberta - The Provincial Political Horserace

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Eye on AlbertaThe Provincial Political Horserace

December 2015

Marc Henry, President ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. MLH@THINKHQ.CA 587.774.2395

CONFIDENTIAL:  December  2015  Eye  on  Alberta  Copyright  ©  2015  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.  All  rights  reserved  

Research Methodology

• Study fielded via online research panel o  Field dates: December 1 to 6, 2015 o  Panel source: Voice of Alberta & Vision Critical

• n=1230

• Weighted to reflect gender, age and region of Alberta population according to Stats Canada

• This online survey utilizes a representative but non-random sample, therefore margin of error is not applicable. However, a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.

• Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample sizes

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Regional Sample Sizes &�Margins of Error

Total Interviews (Unweighted)

(n)

Total Interviews

(Weighted) (n)

Margin of Error (Associated with a

probability sample of this size)

ALBERTA TOTAL

1230

1230

+/- 2.8

Calgary

419

412

+/- 4.8

Edmonton

349

375

+/- 5.3

North

132

159

+/- 8.5

Central

165

149

+/- 7.6

South

165

135

+/- 7.6

Copyright  ©  2015  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.  All  rights  reserved    The  contents  of  this  document  are  the  exclusive  property  of  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.,  and  may  not  be  used  in  any  manner  whatsoever,  without  the  prior  wriHen  consent  of  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.    No  license  under  any  copyright  is  hereby  granted  or  implied.  

Alberta’s Political Landscape

December 2015

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Provincial Political Landscape�-Bruising Fall Session Coming to a Close-

•  New NDP Government having a rough ride in first full legislative session

o  Big Spending, Big Deficit Budget o  Climate Change Plan o  Farm Workers Protection o  Royalty Review Report yet to come…

•  NDP support fallen sharply since the end of summer o  Now trail Wildrose in province-wide popular vote,

down 9 points since September o  Wildrose and PC support shows modest gains in

past 3 months

•  NDP still dominate Edmonton and region, though support significantly eroded

•  Wildrose hold significant edge in small urban and rural regions of the province

•  Calgary is a statistical 3-way tie: Wildrose, NDP and PC support all within margin of error of one another

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33%

29%

25%

8%

3%

2%

Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

% Decided Voters (n=1059)

Initial Undecided 18%

Some other party

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Provincial Political Horserace�-THQ Tracking-

% Decided Vote

10%

14% 16% 16%

13% 15%

14% 14% 15% 15%

17%

13% 13% 14%

19%

26%

39% 41%

38%

32%

29%

34% 33%

35%

38% 39%

41%

38% 39%

38%

46%

41% 41% 40%

30%

20%

31%

27%

24%

30% 32%

33%

44%

36%

31%

26% 26% 26% 27%

28% 30%

19%

24% 26%

31%

36%

40%

25%

20%

28%

21% 23%

25%

10% 11%

12% 13%

14% 14% 14% 12%

14% 16%

14% 14% 12%

14% 14% 12%

9%

4% 5%

8% 8%

1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

4% 3%

4% 3% 3%

4% 3%

4% 5% 5%

4% 2%

5% 4%

3% 1%

3% 4% 4%

5%

2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%

2% 2%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

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37%

24%

21%

13%

1%

4%

Low High

31.5% 42.5%

18.5% 29.5%

15.5% 26.5%

7.5% 18.5%

- 6.5%

- 9.5%

Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-

% Decided Voters (n=313)

Some other party

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

EDMONTON (CMA)

MARGIN OF ERROR (+/- 5.5%)

Initial Undecided 23%

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Provincial Political Horserace�-Edmonton (CMA) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

18%

23% 24% 22%

17%

22% 21%

26%

19%

23%

27%

22% 23% 21%

32%

38%

56%

59%

52%

47%

37%

22%

19%

24%

30%

33%

29%

32% 31% 29%

35%

32%

35%

32%

22%

14%

23%

17%

12%

19%

23% 24%

43%

39%

28% 26% 27%

24% 22%

25% 25%

16%

20%

23%

26%

32% 34%

22%

17%

22%

16% 18%

21%

14% 15%

19%

16% 18% 19% 18%

14%

20% 21%

17% 15% 14%

18%

14% 12%

8%

5% 7%

9%

13%

2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4%

6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5%

3% 2% 1%

5%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 4%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

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30%

29%

26%

9%

5%

1%

Low High

24.8% 35.2%

23.8% 34.2%

20.8% 31.2%

3.8% 14.2%

- 10.2%

- 6.2%

Provincial Political Horserace�-Decided Vote-

% Decided Voters (n=358)

Some other party

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

CALGARY (CMA)

MARGIN OF ERROR (+/- 5.2%)

Initial Undecided 17%

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Provincial Political Horserace�-Calgary (CMA) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

5%

14% 15%

14% 12% 12% 12%

10%

13%

10% 11%

8% 8% 10%

12%

18%

31% 33%

36%

30% 29%

37%

32%

35%

38%

43%

40%

37% 39%

38%

49%

44%

40% 40%

29%

20%

32%

28%

24%

29% 29% 30%

45%

33%

28% 26%

22%

28% 29%

30% 30%

20%

27% 27%

34%

38%

44%

27%

23%

31%

24% 26% 26%

11% 11% 12%

14% 15%

13% 15%

14% 15% 15%

13%

19%

12%

15% 14% 14%

11%

7%

4%

9% 9%

1%

4% 3%

4% 4% 5%

4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

4% 4% 6%

8% 7%

6% 4%

6% 5% 5%

0%

6% 6%

3% 3% 2% 2%

4% 2%

3% 2%

1% 2% 2%

3% 2%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

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29% 30%

43%

22% 23%

33%

29%

20%

37%

51%

25% 25%

17%

30%

22%

8% 10%

15%

6%

1% 3%

5%

1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3%

1%

AB Total Calgary (City) Edmonton (City) Small Urban Rural

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

Provincial Political Horserace�-By Region-

% Decided Voters (n=1059)

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties’ candidate would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

DECIDED VOTE (Leaners Included)

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Provincial Political Horserace�-Edmonton (City) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

21%

26% 27% 26%

20%

25% 24%

29%

20%

26%

30%

25% 25% 23%

33%

42%

59%

64%

55% 54%

43%

18% 17%

21%

27%

31%

24%

29% 28% 27%

32% 29%

32%

27%

19%

12%

21%

12%

8%

16% 19% 20%

41%

36%

25% 24% 22% 22%

20% 22%

24%

15% 17%

21%

26%

31% 32%

22%

18% 21%

14% 13%

17% 16% 18%

21% 18%

22% 23% 21%

17%

22% 23%

19%

15% 16%

20%

15% 13%

8% 5%

8% 9%

15%

2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5%

3%

7% 4% 4%

7% 5% 5%

7%

2% 2% 1%

6%

2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 3%

1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%

3% 4%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

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Provincial Political Horserace�-Calgary (City) Tracking-

% Decided Vote

5%

13%

16% 14%

12% 12% 12% 11%

13%

10% 12%

8% 8% 10%

12%

19%

31%

34%

37%

31% 30%

36%

31%

34% 36%

41% 39%

35% 37%

36%

48%

42%

39% 38%

28%

19%

31%

25% 23%

27% 28%

29%

46%

33%

28% 27%

23%

29% 30%

31% 31%

20%

27% 28%

36% 38%

43%

27%

24%

31%

24% 25% 25%

12% 11%

12%

15% 16%

13%

16% 14%

15% 16%

14%

19%

13%

16% 14% 14%

12%

7%

4%

9% 10%

1%

4% 3%

4% 5% 5% 5%

4% 3% 3% 3%

5% 4%

6% 8%

7% 7%

4% 6% 6%

5%

1%

6% 7%

4% 3%

2% 2% 4%

2% 3%

2% 1%

2% 2% 3%

2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

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Provincial Political Horserace�-Small Urban Tracking-

% Decided Vote *self reported

7%

10% 10%

13%

10%

14%

10% 12%

15% 14% 14%

11% 13% 14%

18%

23%

37%

33% 31%

24% 22%

35%

32%

42%

38% 38%

45%

41% 39%

35%

46%

39%

43%

47%

33%

21%

32% 33%

30%

37%

40%

37%

46%

42%

34%

27%

31%

24%

31% 30%

39%

23%

30% 29% 29%

39%

44%

27%

20%

31%

21%

26%

30%

8%

11%

8% 10% 11% 12% 11% 12%

9%

14% 13% 14%

8% 9%

14%

10%

6%

2%

6% 7% 6%

1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

5%

2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%

6%

3% 2%

5% 3% 2%

4% 3% 3%

10% 8%

2% 4% 3%

0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

3%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

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6% 5% 8% 8%

6% 5% 8%

4%

9% 11% 11% 10%

5%

9%

16%

20%

29% 29% 27%

19%

23%

61% 62%

48%

61%

55%

61%

56%

61%

65% 66% 64%

60%

55%

44%

32%

46%

40%

45% 46% 43%

51%

29% 27%

37%

24% 26% 27%

25%

29%

19%

14%

18%

25%

31% 30%

39%

21% 18%

23% 21%

27%

22%

3% 2% 4% 5%

7% 6% 5% 5% 4%

8% 6%

3%

8%

12%

8% 7% 10%

1% 1% 4%

1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%

5%

0% 3%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%

2% 1% 4%

6%

2% 0%

2% 1% 1% 4%

0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

NDP WR PC LIB AB Party Other

Provincial Political Horserace�-Rural Tracking-

% Decided Vote *self reported

Copyright  ©  2015  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.  All  rights  reserved    The  contents  of  this  document  are  the  exclusive  property  of  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.,  and  may  not  be  used  in  any  manner  whatsoever,  without  the  prior  wriHen  consent  of  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.    No  license  under  any  copyright  is  hereby  granted  or  implied.  

For  more  informaKon,  contact:  Marc  Henry,  President  ThinkHQ  Public  Affairs  Inc.    MLH@THINKHQ.CA  

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