Experiments with RAINS-NL

Experiments with RAINS-NL

Jan Aben

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 2

Contents

• Features and objectives of RAINS-NL• Illustration of a feature• Exploration of Euro V and Euro VI effects on PM2.5

emissions and concentrations• Conclusions

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 3

Features

• Increased spatial resolution (NL domain only)– EMEP based TM’s (50x50 km) OPS based TMs (5x5 km) – high resolution ecosystem and population data

• Sector specific transfer matrices allowing better spatial allocation of control measures

• NO2 concentration

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 4

Objectives of RAINS-NL

• Providing a general framework for IA analysis• Detailing RAINS outcomes for the Netherlands• Studying the effects of alternative national strategies,

including the consequences for other countries

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 5

Increased resolution in RAINS-NL

RAINS underestimates N-problem in hot spots

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 6

Effects of EURO V and VI on NO2 and PM2.5

• NO2 and PM are bottlenecks in Dutch cities• Traffic is an important source of NOx and PM

emissions• Investigation into the effects of proposed EURO

standards on PM2.5 concentrations

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 7

Two alternative strategies

• MOBv1: Starts from Commission proposal Euro V for cars and vans (starting ± 2008) and European stimulation of cleaner trucks (Euro IV and V)

• MOBv2: Starts from Commission proposal EURO V for cars and vans and EURO VI (starting ± 2012) for cars and trucks (Ricardo)

Alternative strategies applied to NL, BE, GE, FR, UK

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 8

Development of shares of Euro standards

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 9

Reduction of NOx emission by road traffic in 2020

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 10

Reduction of PM2.5 emission by road traffic in 2020

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 11

Effect on PM2.5 concentration in 2020 - NL

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 12

Spatial allocation of effect on PM2.5 concentration

RAINS/EMEP underestimates effect of measures for hot spots

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 13

PM2.5 concentrations along city streets in 2020

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 14

Conclusions• Euro V and VI are essential measures to reduce PM2.5

(and NO2) in Dutch urban locations (but possibly not sufficient to meet indicative targets everywhere)

• RAINS/EMEP underestimates problems in hot spots• RAINS/EMEP underestimates effects of measures for

hot spots

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 15

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 16

Increased life expectancyRAINS-NL RAINS

LE C LE C

MOBv1 +5.4 days -0.22 +4.2 days -0.20

MOBv2 +8.6 days -0.36 +6.8 days -0.34

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 17

Effect on NO2-concentration

0.23

0.44

0.38

0.93

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

MOBv1 MOBv2

µg/m3

NLOTH

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, 17-19 May 2006 18

Performance OPS