European Hotel Investment Conference ... - Deloitte UK · Consumer confidence and leisure travel spending (inbound and domestic) Leisure travel spending, % change in 2018 over 2017;
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30th European Hotel Investment ConferenceExperience the futureSimon Oaten & Guy Langford | Wednesday 7 November
2
Passion for leisure
Both strong economic fundamentals as well as changes in consumer behaviour have led to the rise of a confident leisure consumer
Low inflation
Record high employment
Owning less, sharing more
Seeking enriched lives
Shifting spending from ‘needs’ to ‘wants’
Recovering earnings
Making time for leisure
UK leisure consumer
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-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Net
% o
f consum
er
spendin
g m
ore
Spending more on leisure Deloitte Consumer Confidence Index
A view on the UK leisure consumer
Despite the uncertainty around the impact of Brexit, the leisure consumer has continued to spend on leisure
Brexit referendum
Source: The Deloitte UK Leisure Consumer
4
Leisure travel demand
Leisure travel demand has held up as consumers have prioritised their holidays compared to other leisure activities. Spending on exercise has also remained stable.
Source: The Deloitte UK Leisure Consumer
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018
Net
% o
f consum
er
spendin
g m
ore
Long holidays Short breaks Eating out Going to the gym or playing sport
5
Drivers of UK consumer spending
Will the leisure consumer remain resilient?
CPI Inflation
Unemployment rate
Real disposable income
Household final consumption
expenditure
2016 2018 Forecast
Source: ONS; HM Treasury Forecast report; Trading Economics; Bank of England Inflation Report
+0.6%
Q2 2016
+0.4%
Q2 2018
Growth: 2019
+1.6%
Q2 2018
+0.2%
Q2 2016
+0.9%
2.4%
Sep 2018
2020
+1.2%
Q2 2016
4.9%
1.0%
Sep 2016
Q2 2018
4.0%
2.0%
Q4 2020*
4.4%
Q4 2019
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The majority of the European economies show a trend towards falling consumer confidence while leisure travel spending so far has remained resilient
Consumer confidence and leisure travel spending (inbound and domestic)
Leisure travel spending, % change in 2018 over 2017; total spending
Positive consumer confidence Q3’18 vs. Q3’17
Fall in consumer confidence Q3’18 vs. Q3’17
Source: Trading Economics, Factiva, (conversion rate pound to euro 1 GBP = 1.13 EUR)
+3.1% €108.1bn
Spain
+2.2% €129.0bn
France
+2.3% €275.5bn
Germany
+1.4% €138.3bn
Italy
+17% €146bn
UK
+3.2% €24.6bn
Netherlands
Overall confidence in Euro Area
Leisure travel spending, % change in 2018 over last 5 years; total spending
OSJ(-L2TA(-L11
Slide 6
OSJ(-L2 Is UK really 17%. what is the driver or breakdown of this. In the narrative I would like to explore some detail of this.Oaten, Simon J (UK - London), 04/11/2018
TA(-L11 A response is also incorporated into the notes - Due to availability of data the figure for UK is increased over the last five years
(hence blue bubble). Also the increase is likely to be impacted by the fact it is both inbound and domestic spending) - UK ranks
third after US and Spain in terms of countries generating the most revenue out of tourism and this has gone up in the last few
years as tourism has continued to rise and spend per visit has also been lifted as higher spending groups such as CHinese or
the Americans have come here on their holidays.Tan, Aino (UK - London), 05/11/2018
7
Financial optimism among European CFOs
Overall business confidence has been more jittery in the post-referendum period
Source: Deloitte European CFO survey, spring 2018.
Note: The ‘GDP‘ data is weighted based on the GDP contribution of the respondents’ country of residence
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A view on the European hospitality markets
Our delegate survey suggests the UK is already at the top of the investment cycle, while Spain, France and Greece are the markets on the upturn
Downturn
Trough
Peak
Upturn
Source: 2018 EHIC Delegate survey
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REAL-TIME PERSONALISATION?
Levers can hote l iers pu l l in
the age of
How can the hospitality sector keep the leisure (and business) consumer engaged?
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BIG TECH a l ready
knows what your
GUEST DID NEXTSUMMER…
11
Master the Digital…
Hotels guest are leaving digital footprints everywhere
Comb ine i n s i gh t s f r om gue s t s ’ DIGITAL FOOTPRINTS andC RM DATA…
…to de l i ve r INTELLIGENT & PERSONALISED
engagemen t i n REAL TIME a t e ve r y s t ep
12
…and the Physical
Digital loses power when the physical loses relevance
13
Do Well in Wellbeing…
Wellness and wellbeing have gone from fad to fundamental
Wellbeing Inspired Trips Wellbeing Inspired Amenities- vs -
14
Go Private (Accommodations)
Blending the best of both worlds to curate authentic experiences
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