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ICRC CORDEX Stockholm May 2016
EURO-CORDEX-LUC: A new initiative on coordinated regional
land use change experiments
Diana Rechid, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Oliver Branch, Rita M Cardoso, Erika Coppola, Edouard Davin, Rowan Fealy, Borbála Gálos, Filippo Giorgi, Miguel Angel Gaertner,
Klaus Goergen, Andreas Haensler, Nils Hempelmann, Daniela Jacob, Eleni Katragkou, Klaus Keuler, Enrique Sánchez, Sebastian Knist, Juliane Otto, Andrew Pitman, Swantje Preuschmann,
Pedro MM Soares, Gustav Strandberg, Claas Teichmann, Robert Vautard
& Partners from the FPS LUCAS consortium:Marcus Breil, Calum Brown, Xuefeng Cui, Richard Fuchs, Irena Hajnsek, Tomas Halenka,
Jan Erik Haugen, Martin Herold, Andreas Huth, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Kai Radtke, Gerd Schädler, Clemens Simmer, Merja Tölle
www.euro-cordex.net www.lucidproject.org.au www.cordex.org
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Structure
Part I: Land Use Change in the Regional Earth System Schematic overview Land use change and climate interactions in Europe: status of knowledge Some major challenges for modelling
Part II: LUCAS - Land Use & Climate Across Scales - a EURO-CORDEX & LUCID initiative LUCAS Framework: Integration of models and data across scales Towards Regional Climate System Models Science questions and coordinated experiments
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Land use in Europe
Large fragmentation of land use and small-scale land use changes Direct physical impacts of land use change also depend on conditions in atmosphere and soil radiative effects: e.g. clouds evaporative effects: available energy and soil moisture strong variation during seasons and across Europe Source: Pixabay, CC0 Public Domain
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Land use change in the Earth SystemA
tmos
pher
e Ve
geta
tion
Soi
l
Energy Water Momentum Substances
Climate System
Human SystemsLand Ecosystems
Land use change LUCAnthropogenic land cover change
Land managment change
Ecosystem Services
Emissions
Biochemicalimpacts
MitigationAdaptation
Land use policies
Global to localclimate change
Biophysicalimpacts
Change of land surface properties
Natural land cover change
Local to regionalclimate change
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Land use change in the Earth System: biophysical impactsA
tmos
pher
e Ve
geta
tion
Soi
l
Energy Water Momentum Substances
Climate System
Land Ecosystems
Land use change LUCe.g. Afforestation / Reforestation
Biophysicalimpacts
Change of land surface properties
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 6 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Regional Climate System
Land Ecosystems
Land use change LUCe.g. Afforestation /Reforestation
Biophysicalimpacts
Change ofland surfaceproperties Albedo
T
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
Net surface shortwave radiation
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 7 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Regional Climate System
Land Ecosystems
Land use change LUCe.g. Afforestation /Reforestation
Biophysicalimpacts
Change ofland surfaceproperties Albedo
T
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
T
Net surface shortwave radiation
Vegetation coverRooting depth
Evapo-transpirationLatent heat fluxBowen ratio
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 8 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Regional Climate System
Land Ecosystems
Land use change LUCe.g. Afforestation /Reforestation
Biophysicalimpacts
Change ofland surfaceproperties Albedo
T
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
T T
Roughness
Net surface shortwave radiation
Vegetation coverRooting depth
Evapo-transpirationLatent heat fluxBowen ratio
TurbulenceLatent heat fluxSensible heat flux
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 9 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Regional Climate System
Land Ecosystems
Land use change LUCe.g. Afforestation /Reforestation
Biophysicalimpacts
Change ofland surfaceproperties Albedo
T
Example: Simplified scheme of physical (first order) impacts on surface temperature T
T T
Roughness
Overall warming or cooling? depends on availability of energy and water
Net surface shortwave radiation
Vegetation coverRooting depth
Evapo-transpirationLatent heat fluxBowen ratio
TurbulenceLatent heat fluxSensible heat flux
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 10 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Example study Land Mangement Change:Impact of cropland albedo management (by Davin et al., 2014)
Source: Davin, E. L., S. I. Seneviratne, P. Ciais, A. Olioso, and T. Wang (2014), Preferential cooling of hot extremes from cropland albedo management, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., doi:10.1073/pnas.1317323111.
Crop fraction Change in 99th percentile of Tmax
Direct biophysical effects of "no tillage" vs "tillage" increases surface albedo of croplands in summer: the resulting cooling effect is amplified during hot extremes
© Climate Service Center Germany 11 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
LUCID Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts: First coordinated LUC experiments with an ensemble of seven global models
Statistically significant changes of near surface temperature in regions with land cover changes
In most temperate regions with similar magnitude as changes due to increased GHG/SST, generally of opposite sign
Source: de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., et al. (2012) : Determining robust impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes on surface climate over North America and Eurasia; Results from the first set of LUCID experiments. Journal of Climate, 25 : 3261-3281, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00338.1.
Change in 2m-temperature due to historical land cover change / due to GHG increasepresent day vs pre-industrial LCC
LUC- 2mT
SST/GHG+ 2mT
© Climate Service Center Germany 12 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
LUCID: land use implementation in GCM-LSMs
de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. (2012) Boisier et al. (2012)
-1,82 -1,62 -1,26 -1,13 -0,99 -0,61 -0,56
3,36 3,04 2,53 2,26 1,93 1,74 1,65
Changes in forest extent in North America (bars in %, numbers in 106 km2)
Important discrepancy
between models
Initial forest extent (in 1870) in North America (106 km2)
But different implementation
strategies
Same change in crop area provided to all models
© Climate Service Center Germany 13 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
LUCID: some lessons learned
de Noblet-Ducoudré et al. (2012) Boisier et al. (2012)
Different implementation strategies:explains ~1/3rd of
differences between climatic responses at the
continental scale
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Summary: some challengesWhat is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
• consistent LUC implementation in the models is important base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Summary: some challengesWhat is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
• consistent LUC implementation in the models is important base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
• large spatial fragmentation of land use in Europe and LUC impacts are dominant on local to regional scale
need for very high resolution modelling and observations
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Summary: some challengesWhat is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
• consistent LUC implementation in the models is important base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
• large spatial fragmentation of land use in Europe and LUC impacts are dominant on local to regional scale
need for very high resolution modelling and observations
• In contrast to GHG forcing: LUC radiative forcing can also be negative, and spread in GCM response to LUC forcing is larger - so far only single RCM LUC studies
Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical feedbacks of LUC on regional climate
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Consider land use changes in coordinated regional multi-model simulations from continental to local scale
Summary: some challengesWhat is the magnitude of direct biophysical impacts of land use changes on climate at regional to local scales in Europe?
• consistent LUC implementation in the models is important base land use distribution in the RCMs on a common reference and impose
consistent LUC
• large spatial fragmentation of land use in Europe and LUC impacts are dominant on local to regional scale
need for very high resolution modelling and observations
• In contrast to GHG forcing: LUC radiative forcing can also be negative, and spread in GCM response to LUC forcing is larger - so far only single RCM LUC studies
Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical feedbacks of LUC on regional climate
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Part II
LUCAS - Land Use & Climate Across Scales - a EURO-CORDEX & LUCID initiativeproposed as Flagship Pilot Study to WCRP CORDEX
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS Framework
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
LUCAS: Science questions
How large is the contribution of LUC to detected past climate trends and changes in variability in Europe?
How strongly can local LUC attenuate negative impacts of climate change, e.g. increased amplitude of extreme events in Europe?
What is the relative contribution of selected LUC to regional climate changes in Europe under two different level of global warming?
What is the effect of spatial resolution on the magnitude and robustness of LUC-induced climate changes?
How sensitive are the regional climate models to LUC and how is this interrelated to the land-atmosphere coupling in different regions among the suite of models?
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS: RCMs - towards Regional Climate System Models
Regional Climate System
Global climate models / Earth system models
RCMs
Biosphere
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere
Pedosphere
Regional Earth SystemAtmosphericvariables
two-waycoupling boundary conditions
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS: RCMs - towards Regional Climate System Models
Regional Climate System
Global climate models / Earth system models
RCMs
Biosphere
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere
Pedosphere
Regional Earth SystemAtmosphericvariables
two-waycoupling boundary conditions
Feedbacks© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS: RCMs - towards Regional Climate System Models
Regional Climate System
Global climate models / Earth system models
RCMs
Biosphere
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere
Pedosphere
Regional Earth SystemAtmosphericvariables
two-waycoupling boundary conditions
Feedbacks
COSMO-CLM 5.0
COSMO-CLM 5.0 / VEG3D
COSMO-CLM / CLM
RCA4 / HARMONIE-CLIM
RegCM4 / CLM4.5
REMO / LUCHS
REMO / iMOVE
PROMES / ORCHIDEE
WRF / ORCHIDEE
WRF3.6
WRF3.7
COSMO-CLM / CLM / ParFlow (TerrSysMP)
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS: Evaluation concept
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 25 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Example: TERENO Terrestrial Environmental Observatory
Source: Simmer, C. et al. (2015), Monitoring and Modeling the Terrestrial System from Pores to Catchments: The Transregional Collaborative Research Center on Patterns in the Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere System, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96(10), 1765–1787, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00134.1.
Eifel/Lower Rhine Valley ObservatoryRur catchment site Distinct land use gradientCatchment-based measurements that include: • flux towers • gauging stations • weather stations • meteorological X- and C-band radars • cosmic ray soil moisture probes
multi-compartment & multi-scale
see also: http://teodoor.icg.kfa-juelich.de/overview/observatories/ELRV_Observatory
MONITORING OF THE RUR CATCHMENT. The development of techniques to map and under-stand patterns, and to use this to model and predict
the terrestrial system, requires a real counterpart for analysis and testing. TR32 identified the Rur catch-ment (Fig. 1) as its central observation site because
FIG. 1A. Map depicts the Rur catchment including the position of monitoring devices like weather, river gauging, EC, and cosmic-ray stations, as well as a polarimetric weather radar coverage inset for TR32 [X-band radar BoXPol at Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (MIUB)]; TERENO [X-band radar JuXPol at Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH (FZJ)]; and the surrounding C-band radars of DWD, including the nonpolarimetric Rainscanner at Wüstebach and other instrumentation. Active and remnants of open-pit mines are delineated by dashed red lines. The wind rose inset at the top is based on hourly observations of DWD at the weather station Aachen (about 200 m MSL) at the western edge of the catchment for the years 2008–13. The mean wind speed is printed at the end of the eight directional lines. Each circle represents the percentage of time the wind comes from that direction, while the colors indicate the respective discretization into wind speed intervals.
1770 OCTOBER 2015|
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Model experiments
LUCAS Phase I : Idealised experiments on continental scale for past and future
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS: Experiments for the past - ERA-Interim
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS: Experiments for the future - GCM /SSPs*RCPs
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany 29 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
global grid 0.25 x 0.25 degree spatial resolution
850-2100 annual land-use states, transitions, and new: agriculture management layers
12 possible land-use classes, > 100 possible transitions per grid cell per year, including crop rotations
Agriculture management layers including irrigation, fertilizer, and biofuel management
New generation “Land Use Harmonization” LUH2in preparation to CMIP6 by LUMIP (by Hurrt et al.)
LUH2 v1.0h release (April 29, 2016): historical land-use forcing dataset 850 - 2015http://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml
© Climate Service Center Germany 30 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Provision of Land Use Forcing for CMIP6 from LUMIPLand units in each grid cell
http://luh.umd.edu/data.shtml
Forested Primary Land Non forested Primary land
Secondary land forested
Non forested Secondary
land
Managed Pasture land
C4 Annual
crop
C3 Annual Crop Urban
land
Rangeland
C3 Perennial
Crop
C4 Perennial
crop
C3 Nitrogen
fixing crop
© de Noblet-Ducoudré [pers. communication]
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
EURO-CORDEX-LUC workshop on Thursday, 5 to 7 pm, U28
Next steps
Consistent integration of land use change into the RCMs:
• learn from LUMIP protocol (global Land Use Model Intercomparison Project) • use a common reference vegetation distribution in the regional models • consistent translation of land use forcing: clear allocation methods of new land use
on existing land use types clear land use implementation protocol
Detailed definition of idealised experiments on continental scale (phase I) concrete simulation protocol
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Outlook
LUCAS Phase II : High resolution experiments in pilot regions for past and future
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Pilot regions and nests for high resolution modelling
Criteria for Pilot Regions:
Distinct pattern of land-atmosphere coupling strength (e.g. Knist et al., in preparation)
Regions with major rapid historic land use transitions (e.g. Munteanu et al., 2014)
Availability of high-quality observational data (e.g. Szilágyi & Kovács, 2010; Zacharias et al., 2011; Simmer et al., 2015)
x
EURO-CORDEX orography
TERENO Terrestrial Environmental Observatory: Eifel/Lower Rhine Valley Observatory
[m]
xExample Pilot regions / Pilot region nests(not fixed so far)
© GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
LUCAS Phase II : High resolution experiments
Regional Climate System
Global Re-analyses Data
Human Systems
Ecosystems
Regional Earth System
EmissionsLand use change
Natural land coverdynamics
GHG & aerosol emissions / concentrations
Atmosphericvariables
Anthropogenic land cover / change & land managment
Observations& ModelsPast re-constructions
Models & ScenariosFuture projections
ERA-Interim
at 1 km:HILDA(Fuchs et al. 2013)
RCMs 25 km
RCMs 10 km
RCMs 3 km
Pilot regions
Pilot region nest
Continental scale
© D.Rechid, GERICS
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Thank you for your attention!
Do you have questions, comments, suggestions? Would you like to contribute?
Please contact: diana.rechid@hzg.de
Source: Pixabay, CC0 Public Domain
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
I 1
I 2
I 3
I 4
Expected impacts
Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical feedbacks of LUC on regional climate
Identify potential biases that arise from missing land use dynamics in regional climate change projections and help improve the simulated impacts
Support decisions on land management by revealing the potential of LUC to attenuate negative impacts of global warming
Better constrain further strategic development of coupled land-atmosphere and regional earth system models
© Climate Service Center Germany 37 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
High-resolution reconstructions of historic land use for Europe between 1900-2010
Source: Fuchs R., M. Herold, P.H. Verburg, J.G.P.W. Clevers (2013): A high-resolution and harmonized model approach for reconstructing and analysing historic land changes in Europe, Biogeosciences, 10(3), 1543–1559, doi:10.5194/bg-10-1543-2013
HILDA: HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment
EU27 + Switzerland 1 km resolution(1950-2010 15,46 % of land area affected by land use changes)
Areas of major urbanisation and afforestation/reforestation for 1950-2010
© Climate Service Center Germany D. Rechid, EURO-CORDEX-LUC, ICRC CORDEX 2016
Example study Land Cover Change:Potential re-/afforestation in Europe (by Galos et al. 2012, 2013)
Simulation domain with the present forest cover in the regional model
Horizontal resolution: 0.22°
Increase of forest cover with potential afforestation compared to present forested area
© Climate Service Center Germany 39 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Example study Land Cover Change:Potential re-/afforestation in Europe (by Galos et al. 2012, 2013)
Surface temperature change JJA
driven by GHG concentration change2071-2090 vs. 1961-1990
driven by re-/afforestation2071-2090
Precipitation change JJA
© Climate Service Center Germany 40 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Forests Croplands
Natural Grasslands
Grass
Crops Crops
Crops
Grass
Grass Forests
Initial state: 50% grass, 50% forests
Final imposed state: 50% crops
implemented
Forests
Forests
Different LUC Implementation Strategies:Where do/did croplands/pastures come from?
© de Noblet-Ducoudré
© Climate Service Center Germany 41 D. Rechid, Climate Change, 7 Nov 2014
Agent-based land use modellingExplore the development of European land system under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios (e.g. SSP-RCP combinations), defining:
• Climate impacts (land productivity)• Societal demand levels for range of ecosystem goods
and services• Institutional & political interventions• Adaptation options and individual/social behaviour
Model based on decision-making of individual land managers and institutional actors; includes economic and non-economic factors & cross-sectoral competition
Starting from 2010 baseline land cover, simulate changes in:• Broad land use categories based on production type
and intensity– tailored to requirements of climate models
• Ecosystem service supply• Institutional/political strategies
CRAFTY – EU Competition for Resources between Agent Functional TYpes (here: baseline simulation of some broad land use categories) Outputs available at flexible spatial and temporal scales; default annual, 1km2
Calum Brown; University of Edinburgh, personal communication
© C. Brown, University of Edinburgh
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