Transcript
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
http://gabrielplassat.fr
Mobility & Transportation System for the Future
Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere
In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
Agence De l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’EnergieService Transports et Mobilité, en charge des Energies et de la Prospective
Mobility ?
Business Models
Multi modality
Real time
PollutionsIndustry
GHG
Commuter
(Open) Data
SmartPhone
Physical meeting
VEHICLE
ENERGY Infrastructure
Future of Work
LIEN =>
Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone …
moins de TC :
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Vehicle Density vs. Income(for 2002 and 2007)
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
W. Europe & Japan
Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK)
Fundamentals of Mobility
http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/docs/ETCACC_TP_2009_10_prelim_AQQanalysis_2008.pdf
First SYMPTOMS : Air POLLUTION
Cadastre population
POPULATION EXPOSITION
POLLUTIONIMPACT Function
DESEASE & DEAD Numbers
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EXTERNAL COSTS
Air Pollution MapPopulation repartition
COSTS
[ ]
Suivi conso permanent en fonction de l’exploitation
Suivi permanent des émissions de tous les polluants gazeux et particules en fonction de l’exploitation
What IF real pollution was known in real time ?
Who will produce this Information ?
Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI)
Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG
Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects :
Diversification (alternative to fossile)+
GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4)+
Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X)
=> Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient=> Need to optimise also the SYSTEM
Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency
Addition of constraints
Baku, Azerbaijan
Transports & Mobility, Today
More info, clic here
NEW VehAll Veh
1 to 3 MillionsDrivers out of Norm :-insurance, -Permit-Technical
control
years
More info, clic here
Transports & Mobility, Today
urban Peri-urban, rural
Mtoe
Mtoe40 Mtoeroad5
0 M
toe
tGHG/y
essential parameters :
Type of mobility, daily – occasional, constraint - leisure, ...
Age, income,
Place of residence,
Alternative offers available
Identification and understanding of practices, of daily activities
The solutions must adapt to the multiplicity of situations (explosions configurations)
be "as good" as the individual car possessed:
- economy,
- flexibility,
- environment
- quality service
...
Which mobility?
Socio profil Mobility Behavior Automotive Behavior
Which mobility?
Why do you use less your personnal car ?
Reduce my demand
It’s not green
Lose my time
stress
It’s not usefull
It’s expensive
First reason to reduce car utilisation is economic (selfish) then green (altruistic)
Again, First reason to use bicycle is economic & healthy (selfish) then green (altruistic)
Why do you use more a bicycle ?
Increase demand
It’s green
It’s economic
It’s healthy
It’s rapid
No stress
Which mobility?
Which route toward Factor 4 ?
New Technology
New Vehicle on the road :• €,• too slow !• If less FC then more km !
TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions
GHG, Air Quality AQ
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
The meeting, in a given area, of a user and …
an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network,
a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available in own account or for others, property or shares,
an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area, logistics platform,
and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will, tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, …
A Mobility System allows
In order to realise an activity.
REMEMBER
Industry Time scale forinnovation
Linked with Actors
Vehicle : Automotive, HDV, 2 wheels,bicycle
5-10 years Infrastructures :shared,constraints
private
Energy : Oil, energy, some cities(biogas), some farmers(biofuels)
10-20 years Infrastructures :networkdistribution
private
Infrastructure : road, parking, rail operator, 20-50 years Vehicles, energy,information
Publics
Informations : Telecoms, citizen (!) 0.5-2 years Vehicle, energy,infra
Publics(source) andprivate
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
What performance criteria for a solutionMobility and Transport
• Time door to door• Cost: investment, km• Quality: robustness to uncertainties, always-on connectivity or zero noise• Security: perceived real• Environmental performance: known or unknown, knowledge generally leads to
optimization. The fact that they are known is already a step forward:• pollutants, GHG• Energy diversification,• Waste direct and indirect• noise• urban land use• link health / mobility (soft modes, pollution cabin)
4 more free time in 100 years
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aujourd'hui début siècle
Time Transport Budget : Stable ~ 1h for over 20 yearsNeed more speed for more distance
Milliers d’heure
The fundamentals, time
TODAY 1900
From ultra deep exploration
To ultra deepconversion
Is fuel expensive ? 1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ
Oil and fuelsHigh Technology,More and more risky,High characteristics(energetic density in volum)Without any public recognition
At a very LOW PRICE !!
The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition:variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable pricewith alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact,in two waves:1. explosion in the number of pathways,2. specialization.
1st Wave:• 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments• Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2,• Electricity (s) with variable performances,• Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management,
With multiple solutions in most cases:actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitiveDifficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure,difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway
=> The first wave could be long ...
The fundamentals, Energy
4000 engines / day
Millisecond, milligram,Cubic Millimeter of fuel
Micron machined
120 000 parts identical but all different
5 years warranty – 100 000 kmFull Energy in 3 minutes
20+/- 0.5°CVery low emissions and consumption / kWh
Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine
Particules
NOx
HC
CO
EURO III
EURO 0
EURO -1
EURO IEURO II
EURO IV
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2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10
5,0
3,5
8,07,0
0,02 0,660,46
4,54,02,11,5
EURO V2,0
Understand domination (2)
time
Fuel Consumption
Reduction due to Technical progress
But real progress are null :Accessories (€ benefits)Pseudo performance (€ benefits)Constraints emissions / safety.
60 years of difference and same FC …Progress, but for whom?
The fundamental, car economic model
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TOYOTA
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Power (maxi) Is easy to sell !
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The car is sold by kilo,no vehicle manufacturer sell a car lighter and more expensive
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The fundamental, car economic model
time
Fue
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Potentiel ofTechnical benefits
Marketingmass
Real progress
From "new needs" of consumers :Comfort, safety, 4x4Increase "pseudo-performance"
YESTERDAY
The fundamental•Power (max, so unused by the client ...)•Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant)•Respecting standards (Euro, security)•While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell
time
Fue
l co
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Reduction in Marketing massIsoperformance => "90g Now"no extra cost
More Marketing MassMore technology"My minivan hybrid"
TOMORROWou
The fundamental, car economic model
Where are you working ?In US, 30% of workers are « alone » and it’s increasing
Question is not « How can we can a 2 l/100 km car ? »
But « What are the best mobility experiences, Who will produce theses experiences ? »
Multimodality, Connexion, Mobility …
Digital become Major TechnologyWe see the world across Digital technologyAutomotive is not main Matrix anymore
A RETENIR
Fashion clothing
« low cost & functional»2-3 wheels …
From multi-use…
Std Business modelFashion vehicleCybercarHigh technology
Transition from multi- to mono-use increase efficiency, reduce congestion andAllow new energy and technology penetration like electricity … ( can answer to « why not yesterday ? Why tomorrow ? What’s gona change ? » )Transition will appear with business model modification : from vehicle to mobility services
To mono-use…
Towards Mobility 2.0
Mono usage
2-3 roues …
From multi-use… Fashion clothing
Walk, Bike
Vélib’
Car
Car sharing
LocationAutolib’
Carpooling TaxiTransp.
On demand
Bus, trammétro
taxi
Individual association business collective
Public
Semi public
Private
All energies
B to C et B to B
Functionnality
economy
Top downBottom up
B to B
Real PerfoEmissions
Real Fuel consTCO
Mobility 2.0
Complete mobility service
from door to door
Oil + engineMulti-usage
Economy of vehicle
Top down
B to C & B to B
Mobility 1.0
+ Infra 2.0
+ New Authority 2.0(multimodal,
With targets Air Quality, GHG,congestion…)
+ Personnal Travel Assistant
+ Open Data (etalab)
Political Decisions
REMEMBER
Autopartag
e
entre part.
Autop.
« opéré »
Flotte de voiture
« opérée »
Vélo
Libre
serv.
Voiture
possédée
Integration / complexification foroperators
Integration / SimplificationFor users
Mobility Integrated & factor 4
More info, clic here
How to engage these changement quickly ?
Better utilisa°Of public transp.
Integration & Simplification of all transports modes
More info, clic here A.P.M. Personal Travel Assistant (PTA)
Autolib
Vélib
CarSharingPeer2 PeerCarPooling
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
Public = privateIndiv = Collective => « free seat market »Simple & real time access
(insurance, inscrip°…)Simple & real time exit
(payment, reputa°)
With the service we can (need) to Re-design the vehicle : EDAG & Vélib …
Velib is an innovation, but a system innovation bring withITS, infrastructure and business model
Velib bicycle is not a good bicycle but Velib service is successfull !
Velib service bring new Practise. « Bad » Velib bike design are low important
than benefits on Velib service.
Then Vehicle designed for services will be « poor » for standard vehicle consumer
& GE will be best positionned to design EV for Mobility Services …
Always Car but BETTER utilisation & connected to Public Transport
More info, clic here
New Car and other Nrj
Lighter
Pay as you moveMore passenger per car
Raw material &InvestmentIn excess
Raw material &Investment mutualisedPay as you use
Access simplif.PaymentInsuranceIdentityconfidence
IdentityHistoricreputation
pers.km (flux)
Billions City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL 700
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
/
pers / vehicle
=
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
vehicle.km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
gCO2/km – MJ/km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
Utilisation (% distance)
averagegCO2/km – MJ/km
X =
X
=
MTCO2 – MJ
By energy
By vehicle
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
200,0
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500,0
600,0
700,0
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
March
Voiture
VUL
Camion
325
Flux de véhicule
(Md véh.km)
Flux de voyageur
(Md voy.km) et
de Marchandises
(G T.km)
343
377
711
790
750
425 428
300
77 85
60
2422
27
pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux)
Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2
% flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15
Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030
% flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0
% flux by Bus 6 10 15
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
71,217,7
32,1
40,6
21,9
10,1
14,511
3,5
121
72
29
Voyageurs
VUL
March
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
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45,00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
VUL
March
38,5 1
24,5 2
12
5
CONSOMMATIONS
ENERGETIQUES en MTEP
(liquide/gaz et électricité)
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Electricité
Electricité
Electricité
GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor
ENERGY in MTEP
• « standard » Progress
• Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv
• 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km
25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in
• 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km
16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in
Biofuel potential :
• 5 MTEP biogas
• 3 MTEP liquid (2G)
Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the transition from horse to the automobile »
Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species after writing and printing
Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal and steel , and thermal and electrical machines , digital is the new matrix ».
• The digital becomes the dominant technique. New Industrial
empires are built around
• The mutation of the object in the service is a chance
• A new ecosystem is created , users are at the center , the
data is the fuel ( renewable)
58 MOOC Challenges et enjeux de la mobilité 2.0
• Startup definition : “temporary organization designed to
search for a repeatable and scalable business model.”
Innovation(s)
PLATFORM
North America Europe Africa & Latin America
Asia
Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015
BLOCKCHAINED TRAVEL ?FULLY PEER 2 PEER
P2P PLATFORMS
« Company Value in Digital economy : its capacity tocapture positive externality created by the users »
LIEN =>
LIEN =>
Open source vs Patents TESLA , TOYOTA HydrogenELON As A Platform, MP II, Hyperloop
Open Source
Autopilot
High number
applications
High Volume
Of data
More applications
Car, truck, mini-bus
More users, more
Contributors
More data to design Autopilot
Higher volume
Of Autopilot
Lower price
Of Autopilot
« Data is the new oil » : user irruption,knowledge access (but who will have the data ?)
Application
Digital routes …
« Bikability »
How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
TO Start, 3 wrong ideas…
• IF we provide clear demonstration, people change
• WRONG ! WE ARE NOT RATIONAL ! Even with benefits, people don’t change for clear reasons
• Emotional, Cultural, Social parametersare involved in our decision process.
We Are Rational
• People are always afraid to do new things, they like repetition …
• WRONG ! Fear to change doesn’t exist. They are difference of culture, of understanding between people whodesign the solution and those who use them.
• We change every day during our life.
WE don’tlike
change
• We need constraint and obligation to change
• WRONG ! If we put constraint and obligation, then we developresistance and by pass.
• A volontary basis change isimportant to keep it during time.
Onlyconstraint
isefficient
People need to build its ownway to change taking intoaccount its day to day life
We need to participate in the
process of conception in orderto provide its own
rationality
People need
to be volontar
in this
process
… In SUMMARY:
Deep Day to Day Analysis of the Activity
• By description of the activity WE take a distance
• We can SHARE this experience with our PEER
• WE AGREE on a COMMON TARGET
TARGET CO-BUILDING
• We IDENTIFY changement possibilities
• We DESIGN one solution
• We AGREE to test it in certain conditions
EXPERIMENTATION
• WE TEST as soon as possible in real life
• WE SHARE Feed back, LEARN and IMPROVE
• WE CREATE experience and learning curves
HOW to DO this ?
Décembre 2014
3 barriers for Integra° & Simplifica°
More info, clic here
Identify & SynchroniseMain competences
Industry
BehaviorSkillacceptability
City
Vehicle Evolutions bring by Behavior evolutionLess is more …
More info, clic here
Car owned
Car non-ownedless kmMore pass/veh
Car non-ownedAnd operatedless kmMore pass/vehMore efficient
Integration & Simplification – DOUBLE Benefit !
More info, clic here
Service Mobility brings :•Non-owned car•With New specifications•Used by citizens but not owned•Shared & operated•Using other energy•And much more efficient
It’s a system of computer working as a
network (on wheels)
V7.0 can activate Autopilot
You see a car ?
IT’s a system of module in a vacuum tube
created by a network of decentralised
startups
You see a new « train »
The major innovation will be
not to own a car..
Smartphone,
= new key
101
Innovations are changing…
Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ?New mobility behaviour at large scale
Massives solutions Techno & Socio
Identify, support and accelerate 1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion
FabMob version proto
FABRIQUE DES MOBILITES A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION
103
Les Partners bring resources to projects
think tank
écoles
pôles
104
Linving labs for testing(Infrastructures, vehicles, data, community, …)
Expertises, Mentors Test bench, Calculation tools, Fablabs
Learning capacity
And Commons
TO BRING RESOURCES AND ACCELERATIONS TO PROJECTS
105
ILS ACCÈDENT :- RESSOURCES- COMMUNS- ACCOMPAGNEMENT
IMPROVE THE
COMMONS
5 PUIS 10 À 100 PAR AN
Sans Android (et Linux, et iOS,...), votre mobile ne serait pas ce qu’il est
1
0
6
juin 2017
Disposer de briques pour construire ce que l’on veut
1
0
7
juin 2017
La Fabrique, une machine à créer des communs
1
0
9
juin 2017
Une communauté (2 à 20) a besoin d’une ressource
Est-elle existante et ouverte ? Indexation et documentation
http://communs.lafabrique…
Est-elle existante et fermée ? Accompagner l’ouverture
Open Challenge
Aider à la création Mutualisation,
Co-financement, Choix de la licence
Appel à commun
OUI
OUI
NON
NON NON
Venez à votre énergie, on s’occupe du reste / wiki.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr
Vous avez une idée, une communauté / déposer votre projet
Pas de communauté / rejoignez les communautés existantes
De la volonté / rejoignez les projets de communs en cours
25
1
1
0
111
Les CommunsInnover par des plateformes ouvertes
http://communs.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr
Research actions for Mobility 2.0
• Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic …
• Users science : how generate confidance ? How to integrate new user behavior ?
• Understanding & Optimisation of complex system,
• New method to understand new demand, to design solutions with users and providers,
• Tool for capitalisation in order to « industrialise » methodology (not the solutions)
• Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
• Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a chance for industry, citizen and environment,
• New Value Chains, new actor,
• Who will be multimodal mobility operator?
• New ecosystem, user will be center
• Data is the heart : to share
• New culture to develop : education, learning in projects
REMEMBER