ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND TRENDS ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5.

ENERGY CONSUMPTIONPATTERNS AND TRENDS

ENERGY CONVERSION 3154/5

PROCESS

AIRWATER

WASTEENERGY

HUMANACTIVITY

HUMAN PROCESS FLOW CHART

U3A Bath 13 March 2003

Geoff Hammond

MATERIAL RESOURCE

EXTRACTION

PROCESSING

METAL/POLYMER

FABRICATION

END USE

ENERGYRESOURCE

POLLUTIONWASTEHEATNOISE

METABOLISM OF INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

FUEL

ENERGY

POLLUTIONTHERMALCHEMICAL

RADIOACTIVEETC

EXTRACTION

TRANSPORTATION

REFINING

CONVERSION

TRANSMISSION

END USE

THE ENERGY COST OF ENERGY SUPPLY

Geoff Hammond

Energy Transform ation System

M ining /R efin ing

C rudeO il

N atura lG as

SolidFuel

U ranium

H ydro / R enew ables

O il

N atura l G as

Solid Fuel

P rim aryE lectric ity

H ydro, N uclear& R enew able

E lectric ityG eneration

D istribution EndU ses

TransportSector

D om esticSector

ServiceSector

Industria lSector

N atura l G as

O il

Solid Fuel

U3A Bath 13 March 2003

DEMOGRAPHICS

WORLD POP INC.EXPONENTIALLY

DIFFERENTAIL GROWTHOF DC AND LDC

PRESENT POP 6.3 BILLIONHALF UNDER 25YRS OLD

POP INCREASING BY70 MILLION/YR

TWO-STATEMODEL

MALTHUSDOCTRINE

US ENERGY CONSUMPTION

WORLD POP

IC ENGINE

FARADAYWATT

DOUBLING TIME

THE TIME TAKEN TO DOUBLE THE CONSUMPTION OF ANYTHING IS GIVEN BY DIVIDING 70 BY THE % ANNUAL INCREASE

THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN THE POPULATION OF THE WORLDIS 2%, SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 35 YEARS

THE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE USA IS 7% SO THE DOUBLING TIME IS 10 YEARS

WORLD POPULATION

DATE POP x DT (YEARS)

8000 BC 5 1500

1650 AD 500 200

1850 AD 1000 80

1930 AD 2000 45

1975 AD 4000 40

2015 AD 8000 ??

610

FOOD RESOURCES

FOOD – 8 BILLION CULTIVATABLE ACRES

NEED 1 ACRE PER PERSON PER YEAR

GM CROPS?

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

A SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SERIES IS ONE IN WHICH THE LAST TERM IS DOUBLE THE PREVIOUS TERMEG 1,2,4,8,16,ETC

A PROPERTY OF SUCH A SERIES IS THAT THE LAST TERMIS BIGGER THAN THE SUM OF ALL THE PREVIOUS TERMS

IN THE NEXT 35 YEARS THERE WILL BE MORE PEOPLE BORN THAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY

IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS THE USA WILL USE MORE FUELTHAN IN THE WHOLE OF HISTORY

CONSUMPTION OF A FINITE RESOURCE

5 TIMES MOREFOR DOUBLE LIFE

SUPPOSE THAT 0.01% USED1/10,000 OF KNOWN RESERVE

EXHAUSTION IN 13.3 DOUBLING TIMES

FOR DT = 10 YRS, ALL GONE IN 135 YRS

ELECTRIFICATION

• ALL DEVELOPED SOCIETIES SHOW A TREND TOWARDS GREATER USE OF ELECTRICITY

• THIS MEANS HIGHER CONSUMPTION OF PRIMARY FUELS

• THIS MEANS MORE ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION

THE INFLUENCE OF THE USA

5% 0F THE WORLD’S POPULATION USING 60% OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY AND PRODUCING MOST OF THE WORLD’S POLLUTION

WILL NOT RATIFY THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

PATTERN OF ENERGY USE IN THE USA, 1970

SANKEY DIAGRAM

US ENERGY USE PATTERNS 1985

CONSEQUENCES OF ELECTRIFICATION

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION % OF TOTAL, 10,000 MTOE, 1993

OIL

COAL

GAS

BIOMASS

HYDRO

NUCLEAR