Economic Update for Utah's Bridgerland: Feb 2009

An Economic UpdateU.S., Utah, Box Elder, Cache and

Rich Counties

Society for Human Resource Management, Bridgerland

Chapter

February 19, 2009

Utah Components of Population Change

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee

-25,000

-5,000

15,000

35,000

55,000

75,000

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Per

son

s

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Change

Utah State Employment Growth Rates1950 – 2010f

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1960 1970 1980 19901950

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: January 2009 f = forecast

2000

3.3% average since 1960

2010

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90 95 00

Year-Over Percent Change

In Non-farm Jobs

05

Utah

U.S.

Dec.2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08

Utah Unemployment Rate1973 – 2008

Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: January 2009

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Initial Unemployment Insurance ClaimsUtah 1986 – 2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: January 2009

86 90 00 09

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

77 82 87 92 97 02 07

Utah Employment Change1976 – 2010

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: January 2009

22 Months 8 Months 8 Months 18 Months

September2010

-400

-3,100

-4,300

-3,700

5,400

-600

3,200

-800

-13,100

1,000

-5,200

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health

Government

Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change)2008 – 2009

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Prof., and Business

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Here in Box Elder, Cache, & Rich

Counties

Population

Box Elder & Cache County Population1989 to 2008

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Month & Year

Box Elder

Cache

Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008.

2000-2008 Annual Growth RateBox Elder 2.0%

Cache 3.1%Rich 2.4%

Employment

Box Elder & Cache NonFarm Jobs1989 to 2008

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

89 J O J A

92 J O J A

95 J O J A

98 J O J A

01 J O J A

04 J O J A

07 J O J

Month & Year

Box Elder

Cache

Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information February 2009.

New Jobs Growth Rate 2006-2007 Box Elder = 4.6% Cache = 3.8% Rich = 5.2%

Box Elder County Employment

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

20,000

20,500

21,000

00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008

04 0605 07 08

Box Elder County Employment Growth Rates

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Jan-06

FebMarAprMayJun JulAugSepOctNovDecJan-07

FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan-08

FebMarAprMayJunJul AugSep

*2008 third quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Feb. 2009

40% of all jobsin Box Elder Countyare in Manufacturing

Cache County Employment

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Cache County Employment Growth Rates

-3.5%

-1.5%

0.5%

2.5%

4.5%

6.5%

00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Cache County Year-Over Manufacturing EmploymentGrowth Rates 2006-2008

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

Jan-07

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-08

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

*2008 third quarter data is preliminary.Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Feb. 2009

21% of all jobsin Cache County

are in Manufacturing

Rich County Employment

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Rich County Employment Growth Rates

-19.0%

-9.0%

1.0%

11.0%

21.0%

31.0%

00 01 02 0399Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: September 2008

04 05 06 07 08

Unemployment

State, Box Elder, Cache, and Rich Unemployment Rates

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan2001

Apr Jul Oct Jan2002

Apr Jul Oct Jan2003

Apr Jul Oct Jan2004

Apr Jul Oct Jan2005

Apr Jul Oct Jan2006

Apr Jul Oct Jan2007

Apr Jul Oct Jan2008

Apr Jul Nov

Box ElderCache

State

•Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

December 2008 Box Elder 5.2% Cache 3.2% Rich 2.9% Utah 4.3% U.S. 7.2%

Rich

Bear River Counties Initial Unemployment Claims

352

288

231207 192 209

253

186 179210

380

756 738

188

123

81100

131

203

275

120 129

196

365

512 505

Jan-08

Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-09

Box Elder Cache

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

$$$$ Wages $$$$

2007 Average Monthly Wage by County

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

$1,792$1,899

$1,977$2,006

$2,076

$2,134$2,145

$2,250$2,308$2,330$2,340$2,401

$2,490$2,502

$2,611$2,668$2,709$2,721$2,765$2,809$2,858

$2,951$3,043$3,088

$3,298$3,310$3,377

$2,089

Piute Rich

Sanpete Garfield Wayne

Kane Iron

Grand Cache

Beaver Sevier

San Juan Washington

Morgan Daggett

Wasatch Millard Weber

Utah Summit Carbon

Juab Davis

State Tooele

Duchesne Emery

Box Elder Salt Lake

Uintah

% Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

0.2%1.5%

2.3%3.0%

3.6%3.7%3.7%3.8%

4.1%4.3%4.5%4.7%

5.0%5.2%5.3%

5.6%5.8%6.0%

6.5%7.3%7.4%7.6%

8.2%9.2%

10.1%10.5%

12.7%12.9%

14.7%

3.2%

Emery Piute

Wayne Tooele Beaver

Davis Weber

Washington Iron

Cache Millard Sevier

Carbon Grand

Garfield Morgan

State Utah

Salt Lake Box Elder

Sanpete Summit

Kane Uintah

Daggett San Juan

Rich Wasatch

Juab Duchesne

Average Monthly Wage – 2007

Because of the concentration of manufacturing in Box Elder, it ranks in the top 5 in Utah counties for wages, $3,375 ($19.47/hr). State wages at $3,044 ($17.56/hr) are above the Cache average $2,250 ($12.98/hr) and Rich

$1,899 ($10.96/hr).0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Average Wage

State

BoxElder

Cache

Rich

$3,044 $3,375

$2,250

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

$1,899

Bear River’s County Average Monthly Wage, 2007

3,258

1,919

863

2,261

1,238

2,506

5,110

2,742

2,455

2,690

1,856

922

2,213

2,258

2,488

1,956

1,868

2,973

2,228

1,631

2,380

1,686

1,085

2,371

2,033

1,940

0

1,673

3,349

2,217

2,198

2,103

2,151

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Government

Other Services

Leisure Hospitality

Educ. & Health Serv

Prof. Bus. Serv

Finance

Information

Trad Transp Util

Manuf.

Construction

Mining

RichCacheBox Elder

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

Average WageBox Elder $3,375Cache $2,250Rich $1,899

Construction

Bear River Counties Construction Dwelling Permits

692

774

614

831

1,284

1,008

899 910

414

47 19 30 24 3976 47 43 37

337254 269

214262

511461 453

249

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 toQtr 3

Box Elder Cache Rich

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

Bear River Counties Construction Permit Values (Millions of $)

126 131 127

167

197 193

249239

112

5 3 5 6 1024

13 14 10

40 4134 37 40

92

197

160

74

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 toQtr 3

Box Elder Cache Rich

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

Bear River Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008

-43.9%

-34.2%

0.0%

-23.8%

-52.9%

-73.9%

-57.7%

-35.5%

Box Elder Cache Rich State

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.

Dwelling Permits

Total Const.Valuation

Outlook

Jobs

State OutlookContinued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative –2.3%

in 2009. Growth around –0.4% in 2010.

Box ElderSliding to 0.0 % job growth in 2008. Slipping to

-2.0% to –2.5 in 2009. Manufacturing the key.

CacheJob growth of 1.5 to 2.0% for 2008. Growth negative in 2009

at about –1.0% to –2.0% in 2009. Manufacturing job losses may continue.

Rich Very slow growth, if any. Watch Construction.

UnemploymentIncreasing in all counties.

Box Elder unemployment at 4.0% to 5.0% in 2009Cache joblessness in the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2009Rich unemployment 2.0% to 3.0% in 2009

Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows.

SpendingSlow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better timesthey will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and

inflation(energy prices).

The Sun will come up tomorrow.

We will get through this but it will take time.

This recession is like no other in our history.

Don’t panic, be flexible.

Businesses find new ways of dealing with the economic environment, out of the box.

John MathewsNorthern Regional Economist

Department of Workforce Services(jobs.utah.gov)

johnmathews@utah.gov(801) 526-9467

Powerpoint slide show at:http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html

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