DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April.

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Telepresence for the Teleworkplace:

Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace…

Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about

30 April 1998

Gordon Bell (gbell@microsoft.com)

Bay Area Research Center

Microsoft Researchhttp://www.research.microsoft.com/barc/gbell

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Outline

Nature of the Teleworkplace Platforms and technology push… why now? The teleworking dimensions Telepresentations: a killer app But does anyone want telework? Cyberspace… our quest The end….. The 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure

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Telework = work + telepresence … “being there while being here”

Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office The teleworkplace is ideally just a “remote office” W/O

– Communication, computer, and network support!– Team interactions for work! CSCW is a “rat hole”!– Interaction at coffee, meeting rooms, … in offices– Administrative support for phones, information (especially

paper) management, keeping track of Always on & always connected to intranet/intranet ...! Telepresentations & communication -- the “killer apps” Collaboration is desirable, hard, and may be possible. Needs B/W

& low latency. It’s on its very slow way. SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market

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Telecommuting versus time

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Teleworking CW 9/1/97 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies (screening, worker

expectations, liability, IP protection, etc. Are telecommuters more productive?

– 30% yes– 50% same– 4% no– 16% don’t know

Are telecommuters more accessible?– 13% yes– 40% same– 40% no– 7% don’t know

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Telepresence for work: requirements

Telepresence = space and time shifting Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office Limited space, bandwidth, administrative and computer support

infrastructure, AND interaction Need: run all office and professional apps, support computing

environment, and be always connected New app opportunities: telepresentations (e.g. NetShow, Powerpoint

conferencing); Web is the greatest library ever created Create “presence” for collaboration by apps sharing (e.g. NetMeeting,

Placeware) Administrative support including paper handling! Short term bets: large disks (e.g 20GB), more displays, videophones,

cameras, scanners, bandwidth limits

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Telework & telepresence: a forcing function into several areas... Home Network Network connection is always on

… and at high speed Support (at reasonable cost) for all apps…

-- the teleworker = system admin Office work… e.g. paperlessness, message mgm’t

“recording all we read, write, hear, and see”-- the teleworker = admin. assistant aka secretary

Telepresence… attending meetings and lectures, taking courses, etc. without travel

Collaboration on a work project without travel

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Why telepresence now?

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It’s the near-term platforms, stupid!(multimedia is finally happening)

Text & 2D graphics >> images, voice, & video The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything Disk sizes and cost c1998

– $50-100 / GB– 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB MO R/W

The videophone will emerge for distributed conferences Document, picture, and video capture and compression

– 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB– 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book– Plethora of … CAMERAS EVERYWHERE!– More Screens. We need at least two!

Voice and video compression*– 250 hours / GB voice– Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB;

Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places

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Memex

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Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen

Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

stills w/voice @100KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

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Storage and data-rate requirements for common office data-types

Documents image compressed #/GBpage or fax 100 K 4K 10K;250Kbusiness card 5 K 500 200K;2Msnapshot 3 M 100 K 10,000350 page book 25 M 1-2 M 40;750

Human data-types /hr /day /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M 60-300 Gspeech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M 1.2 TVideo comp. 50KbPOTS 22 M .25 G 25 Tvideo comp. 200Kb VHS 90 M 1 G 100 T video comp. 4.3Mb DVD 1.8 G 20 G 1 P

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SOHO AKA COMOHO Teleworking Environment

Guardian Angel:intercom,records what we read, see, and hear… protects us fromourselves and others

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Libretto, .5mm

PCS; Pilot

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

Compass; altimeter

Not shown: ECG; GPS;

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One of GB’s Teleworkplaces

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Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3#

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Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

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SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment

NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP

gateway, file, print, compute

IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps

Phone

POTS (legacy services)

*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.

...

LAN

PC NC*PC...

PhonePhone

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Telework & communications space

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email

Formal presentations sans video

...

Voice & Videomail

Video lectures & courses

ICQ, Internet phone & phone conf.

RealAudio & simple graphics

Workspace for remote program control

Whiteboard (groups)...

Videophone

Remote Rover (Robot Videophone)

person-computer

1:1 personal

comm

unication

2 site-site

conferencing;

n site conferencing

1:p broadcasts

computer

managem

ent

distributed groups

with >2, 10, <100,

view

(tro

ll) h

allw

ays

with

“info

rmal

” inte

ract

ion

1: 1

vid

eophone

calls

for

(pro

blem

solv

ing, a

uthorin

g)

inte

rvie

ws

clas

ses

form

al m

eetin

gs (le

cture

s,

confe

rence

s, s

tock

holder

mee

tings,

town h

alls

, etc

..)

Mechanisms(how)

Synchronous

Asynchronous

GroupInteraction

(Who)

Type

of

Work

(What

)

The Space of Telepresencefor work

Profession

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Telepresence: who and whatWHO

1:1 person-person communication

n:m 2-site-site video conference

1:n-site broadcasting or Mbone narrowcasting

distributed group. >2 - 5 - 10 - 100

----

person-computer

computer management (no persons)

What

view (troll) hallways, “seeking interaction”

1:1 interview, status report, etc.

1-6 videophone calls for (design, problem solving, authoring)

hold staff meetings with 1 or more members distributed

attend classes

formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..)

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Telemeeting clone

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Telework clones… being in more than one place at the same time

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Animatron...

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Synchronous

Internet phone & phone conferencing

RealAudio & Overhead graphics

Shared applications

Whiteboards

CU SeeMe on POTS… IP Videophone

Mbone Video conferencing

Room Video conferencing

Remote Rover (Robot Videophone)

Asynchronous

voice mail…STT

email ... TTS

Home pages replace bulletin boards, file transport, and document distribution

Schedule & “Notes”

Voice and Video “email”

Telepresentations (meetings, presentations, & courses)

Telepresence Mechanisms (for Work)

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Voice and Visual Alternatives (in order of increasing B/W)

Voice* TTS (synthetic or

speaker driven) 4 Kb-64 Kb codec of

real voice Stereo of real voice Stereo with sound

source identification Projection into arbitrary

virtual world environment

*variable speed

Visual AKA Video* Text avatar (simple… photo) Avatar with voice sync Avatar of real person Video codec based projection

– “Postage stamp” … POTS– “Mailing label” … ISDN or 2x POTS– Compressed VHS (200 Kbps)– MPEG 2 (1- 4 Mbps)

Speaker tracking, 1-n cameras VR image of a large space 3d images “holodeck” Animatron e.g. Barney Mobile Animatron*Meeting in real or virtual world

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Telepresentations: The next or another killer app?

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Tools for telepresentations and telecollaboration

Powerpoint: conference & record, Precept: mbone multicasting

NetShow: On demand viewing of video 28.8 - 100 Kb

CuSeeMe: audio, video, whiteboard NetMeeting: audio, 2 way video, chat,

whiteboard, program sharing Placeware for large scale meetings,

presentations, and collaborations

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Telepresentations “Being There (e.g. meeting, lecture, confererene) Without Really Being There (or Then)”

Presenter or audience need not be physically present Reach a wider audience

“I have a schedule conflict.” Anybody with a web connection can participate

Reduce costs No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation

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Telepresentation Features Essential

– High quality audio and Graphics aka slides Important

– Some essence of the presenter - even a few still images Non-Essential

– Video of the presenter– Two-way communication

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Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by 2001.

ACM97 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. http://www.research.microsoft.com/acm97

Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it.

Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education?

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But does anyone want telework?

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Problems: socio vs technical

Isolation & loneliness– need for communication/stimulation– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas– loss of group/teamwork skills– danger of becoming “terminal”

interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it…

they simply need the contact with people

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A People Model: Does anyone want telepresence?

Spock

formal(in writing)

Self-control

informal(verbal)

Sally Field

Souter Evangelism Swaggert

Analyticals.. being right, detailed

analretentives

Drivers…results oriented

megalomaniacs

Amiables…consensusbuilders

spinelesswimps

Expressives...want recognition, need contact

psychotics

Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR)

2D Model

--------------chat----------------

emailbroadcast- push

Intensity

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Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be in Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! of computers!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets

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““

””

By April 1, 2001 By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs 50% of the PCs and be in use.and be in use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,

loser gets fed)

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Two, $1K Bets with Nicholas Negroponte

on Internet Growth That by December 31, 2000 there will

be 1 billion users on the web. (5:1 odds) That by December 31,

2001, there will be 1 billion users on the web.

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Growth in users?

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

120001995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

World population@1.6%

Internet growth extrapolated@98%

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Good News Bandwidth will come Audio and video compression is

improving to live within POTS limit Videophones will be built-into all PCs

within 5 years at 0 cost Telepresentations are here for “live”

and “on demand” useThis will change education!

Telecollaboration tools work for simple apps…

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Telework: Summary The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W. Technology is coming, research lags in handling

– Storage of all text, audio, and useful video– Videophones, cameras, netPCs, WebTV, etc. – More pixels we require to increase “presence”– Adequate audio… the “killer” component

A big part of telework is just office productivity– Coexistence with computer, paper, telephone,– Data-types require a multimedia database– Computer and network management is a real “time killer”

CSCW is a rathole. We don’t understand CW– The killer apps are simple: telepresentations and shared

apps Being connected all the time is essential

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“Therapy from long distance debated”

- SJ Mercury 5 April 1998

http://www.sjmercury.com/breaking/headline1/056580.htm

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The End

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Bonus slides:

Gordon’s very own answers to the 16 questions posed in

the DVC Brochure

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Will streaming video bring the Internet to its knees?

Depends on the data-rate. Is it 28.8 Kbps? Or > 4500 Kbps for DVD and HDTV-quality?

By definition, it won’t or can’t because It won’t be deployed if the network can’t support it Better question:

What forms will streaming video take over the next five years for the corporate user?

What forms will streaming video take as a function of time for the home internet user?

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What are the essential ingredients for success in remote collaboration?

The type of work… it has to be “coarse grain” I.e. little interaction among the collaborators per unit of collaboration and work output

Telepresentation-type collaboration does work The application supporting it Great audio Were you able to collaborate in a single site?

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How much interoperability is really out there?

Not much…among vendors. Microsoft has a solution to this problem and we

comply with the various ITU standards

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Which technology will win the broadband access battle -- cable modems or DSL products? I.e. the dumb or the blind? Cable will lead in the short term because of the

inherent ease of doing it, its low cost, and the possibility that users could simply buy their cable modems and attach them.

Not a given because the transition to digital channels will confuse things

But in the long term, service most likely has to be Central Office based for reliability and scalability and for symmetry.

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Why are desktop video conferencing sales growing faster in the consumer market than in business market? It would be surprising if videoconferencing sales

are growing faster. Surely 2 way videophone is growing Clearer need: the videophone It is easy to do for videophone use Lack of a great product that works Lace of infrastructure on the net, including

firewalls Audio isn’t good enough… I.e. acceptable

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How will Disney use the Internet to distribute multimedia content?

Slowly… look at their site with a young child Games, cartoons, and stories To engage the users into stories like DisneyLand

or DisneyWorld

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What does it cost to multicast video to thousands of users from a single stream? Do you have the bandwidth for one or more

channels? If so, the cost is nil. Is it just for internal multicasting? Do you want to send to the internet or just

receive? All these require just doing it… FYI: Multicasting using NetShow is built in to NT

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Which streaming media technology places the least demand on your network server? The Mbone standards… are just fine Not using “on demand” However, “on demand” is the most useful and

flexible, by far

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Can videoconferences be made secure?

Is this really a problem?

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How can the enterprise network be used to transmit voice?

Wait Adequate and reliable LANs Platforms that support voice are available It really happens when you incorporate desktop IP

telephony

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What are the costs and logistics of broadcasting live over the internet?

Why would you want to? You have to use the Mbone channels today or the

equivalent of extra-nets? A more realistic scenario would be “on demand”

from your site. Anyone can do this!

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What is being done to simplify life for multipoint users?

Who he/she?

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How do you integrate audio and video into your web pages?

Just do it!

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With the emergence of IP telephony, is regular POTS conferencing dead?

Yes, but It is going to take 3-5 years before IP telephony

becomes ubiquitous enough It will probably build from a product/technology

like NetMeeting Should ask:t what kind of environment or use?

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What are the best measures of videoconferencing quality?

The existing systems using dedicated links Whether users can get work done

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Will video chat develop like keyboard chat and generate millions of minutes of usage for on line services? It already is. Go visit a Porno studio, however this is really

one way chat Unclear how much n-way video chat will be used Expect NetMeeting et al will be the enablers and meetings

could be the “killer app” Don’t count out shared games as the enabler and avenue for

chat & collaboration Some consumer research questions:

Do you want voice at all or text with avatars and comic chat?Or would you rather chat using just voice, voice and avatars, lip-synced images of yourself, 10-30 fps talking images?