Dr Rakesh Dubey Director Disaster Management Institute Bhopal rakeshddubey@hotmail.com Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment And On-site and off-site.

Dr Rakesh Dubey

Director

Disaster Management Institute

Bhopal

rakeshddubey@hotmail.com

Hazards Identification and Risk Assessment And

On-site and off-site Emergency Management Plans

Hazardous gases/liquids in Indian Industries

LPG , Propane (under pressure in liquid phase)

Ammonia (under pressure/refrigeration in liquid phase)

Chlorine (under pressure in liquid phase) Hydrogen (under pressure in gases)

Causality chainCausality chain

EmissionEmission

Environmentaldistribution

Exposure

Effects

MODELLINGor

MONITORING

SourcesSources

Source typesSource types:

Point sourcesPoint sources

Line sourcesLine sources

Diffuse sourcesDiffuse sources

Types of Types of EmissionsEmissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Continuous emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Intermittent emissions

Peak emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Block emissions

Spatial scalesSpatial scales Local scaleLocal scale

Area around one Area around one point sourcepoint source

Average Average environmental environmental characteristicscharacteristics

““Reasonable worst Reasonable worst case” scenariocase” scenario

Regional scaleRegional scale Area of 200 x 200 kmArea of 200 x 200 km 20 million inhabitants 20 million inhabitants 100 or 10% of 100 or 10% of

production production Average Average

environmentalenvironmental characteristicscharacteristics

Key Points: RAIN!

Recognize Avoid Isolate Notify

What can

I do?

Recognize

Unusual Activity / Behavior

Hazardous weather conditions

Things out of place Unexplained liquids Strange smells Abnormal fogs or mists Suspicious Packages

?

AvoidWhat Do I Stay Away From?

Don’t assume anything

Don’t become a

victimDon’t rush in

Don’t TEST (Taste, Eat,

Smell, Touch)

The 4 Don’ts

Isolate

Keep others away from hazard area

Notify

Immediate Supervisor Hospital Emergency

Phone Number

Remember RAIN! Recognize, Avoid, Isolate, Notify

RAIN! Example #1 Recognize: Suspicious Package Avoid: Do not touch object Isolate: Contain the area &

keep others away from hazard area

Notify: Call for help

RAIN! Example #2

Recognize: Chemical Spill Avoid: Do not touch, taste, or smell Isolate: Contain the scene & keep

others away from hazard area Notify: Call for help

Industrial Disaster Management Cycle: OECD

What to do? How to do? Is there any way exists?

Disaster Management Planning both on-site (Schedule 11) and off-site (Schedule 12) of MS&IHC Rules 1989 of EPA 1986 with following components:A. Risk Assessment & Management

B. Emergency Preparedness

C. Community Dialogue

Part one Disaster Impact Assessment

Toxic release, heat fluxes, pressure waves

Risk Assessment & Management

1. evaluate range of potential incidents (without considering possible causes)

2. put mitigation in place for foreseeable ones

3. evaluate community consequences for range of incidents,

a) credible worst case- largest tank or worst failure consequence- reasonable duration of release- passive mitigation in effect- credible worst weather

b) worst imaginable case- largest tank or worst failure consequence- worst possible duration or release- no mitigation- worst possible weather

Reliability Risk Assessment Risk Based Maintenance Planning

Risk estimation Hazard identification Quantitative Hazard Assessment Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Risk Quantification

Risk evaluation Setting up risk acceptance criteria Risk comparison

Maintenance planning

Hazard identification

Accident scenario development Fault tree

development

Quantitative hazard assessment

Probabilistic hazard assessment

Consequences analysis

Fault tree analysis

Risk estimation

Whether risk is in acceptance?

Suggest maintenance measures to control

risk

Apply maintenance

measures and re-evaluate risk

No

End

Yes

Start

Fault tree for the envisaged scenario

What may go wrong?What would be What would be

the impacts?the impacts?How it may go How it may go wrong? wrong? How likely its How likely its occurrence?occurrence?

What maintenance What maintenance schedule would schedule would reduce its reduce its likelihood of likelihood of occurrence?occurrence?

Disaster Management Institute, Bhopal

Toxic Gas Dispersion

LC-50

IDLH

STEL

Storage Conditions Atmospheric Storage Pressure Storage Fully Refrigerated Storage Semi-Refrigerated Storage Gas Under Pressure Which condition is leading to significant

impacts

On-site Risk Off-site Risk

Hazards identification : Materials, process, regulatory,

Consequence of hazards Likely hood of consequences Frequency of occurrence Calculation of Risk Decision for weighing alternatives

Part two Preparedness, Planning,

Response

By putting prevention techniques

Through planning By response plans Through mitigation Education and awareness Best practices

ALARP

ALARP meansALARP means

‘As Low As Reasonable Practicable’

ALARP demonstration means:ALARP demonstration means:

To demonstrate that the project & associated systems and HSEMS will enable the facility to be operated & maintained safely such that residual risks to HSE are tolerable

Good practices Technical approaches

Management review

OH&S PolicyOH&S Policy

PlanningPlanning

Implementation Implementation & Operation& Operation

Checking &Checking &Corrective ActionCorrective Action

ManagementManagementReviewReview Continual Continual

ImprovementImprovement

Transport Sector

Correct Technical Name Class Label

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

UN No.1075

Hazchem 2 W E

In Emergency Dial Specialist Advice 100 Keep away from sources of ignition.

How plan should be made more use full for Top Management

Communication

Living with the risks with continuous improvement: UN’s Statement of 2nd WCDR Kobe Japan

? ?I f,A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W

X Y Z

Equals,1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26

Then,

K + N + O + W + L + E + D + G + E11 + 14 + 15 + 23 + 12 + 5 + 4 + 7 + 5 = 96%

H + A + R + D + W + O + R + K8 + 1 + 18 + 4 + 23 + 15 + 18 + 11 = 98%

Both are important, but the total falls just short of 100%

But,A + T + T + I + T + U + D + E1 + 20 + 20 + 9 + 20 + 21 + 4 + 5 = 100%

Safety really is about attitude. Make 100% Safe Behavior your choiceboth ON and OFF the job

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