Transcript
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
1/16
THE NEW AIR EARTHQUAKEMODELS FOR SOUTH AMERICAChile | Colombia | Ecuador | Peru | Venezuela
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
2/16
Earthquakes of M4.0 and greater in the South America region. (Source: AIR)
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
3/16
SEISM
ICIT
Y
Located along the so-called Ring of Fire,the western coast of South America is
one of the most seismically active regions
of the world. The largest earthquake
ever recorded took place herean M9.5
event that struck Valdivia, Chile, in 1960.
More recently, the 1998 M7.2 Bahia de
Caraquez-Canoa earthquake in Ecuador,
the 2004 M8.2 Pizarro earthquake in
Colombia, the 2007 M8.0 Pisco earthquake
in Peru, the 2010 M8.8 Maule and the
2014 M8.2 Iquique earthquakes in Chile
have all caused extensive damage. The AIR
models provide the most up-to-date viewof seismicity based on the latest historical
catalogs and active fault databases from
several global, regional, and local sources.
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
4/16
Maximum inundation height (in meters) caused by the 2010 Maule tsunami event. (Source: AIR)
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
5/16
TSUN
AMI
The 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake
was a reminder of the risk of tsunamis
to those living along the Pacific coast of
South America. The tsunami spawnedby this earthquake ravaged the coastline
and destroyed more than 75% of the
town of Dichato. The AIR models feature
fully probabilistic tsunami modeling that
has been validated against all available
historical events, with a particular focus onthe well-recorded tsunami produced by the
Maule quake.
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
6/16
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
7/16
LIQUE
FAC
TION
When an area saturated with groundwater
experiences strong ground shaking, the
soil can lose its ability to support structures
in a phenomenon called liquefaction. As aresult, buildings can suddenly tilt or even
topple, and buried utility lines can break.
Recent temblors around the world have
shown that damage due to liquefaction
can increase total losses significantly. The
AIR models explicitly capture liquefaction
risk in the major cities of Chile, Colombia,
Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
8/16
Quito, Ecuador: panoramic view of the historic center (Source: Claude Meisch, Wikimedia)
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
9/16
EX
POS
URE
The greatest concentrations of exposure
are the densely populated cities of Bogot,
Cali, Lima, Caracas, Medelln, Quito, and
Santiago. The AIR models incorporate
highly detailed industry exposure databases
(IED) at 1-km grid resolution containinginformation on risk counts, replacement
values, occupancies, and construction types
of insurable structures. Industrial facilities
are among the highest value risks in South
America and account for a significant
portion of the insured value in these
countries. The AIR models have separate
damage functions for these facilities and
their individual components.
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
10/16
The 2010 Maule, Chile, quake caused major building damage in Concepcin. (Source: Claudio Nez, Wikimedia)
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
11/16
VULNE
RAB
ILITY
The AIR models estimate losses to
residential, commercial, and industrialassets, and to automobiles. These
calculations have been tailored to each
countrys unique building practices and
have been peer-reviewed by local experts
at leading South American institutions.
The models also incorporate findings from
damage surveys, studies of local building
codes, detailed claims data analysis, and
structural engineering research.
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
12/16
M8.01530 Cumana
M8.31797 Riobamba
M8.71730 Valparaiso
M8.51822 Valparaiso
M8.51687 Lima Callao
M7.71812 Caracas
CHILE
COLOMBIA
ECUADOR
PERU
VENEZUELA
180017001500 1750 18
SIGNIFICANT HISTORICAL EART
2000900
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
13/16
M7.71868 Ibarra
M8.61906 Esmeraldas
M7.91942 Guayaquil
M7.21998 Bahia
M8.51868 Arica
M8.71922 Vallenar
M8.0
1985 SantiagoM8.2
2014 Iquique
M8.82010 Maule
M7.51875 Cucuta
M7.61958 Frontera con Ecuador
M7.71979 Narino (Cauca)
M6.22001 Armenia
M7.22004Pizarro
M5.61983 Popoyan
M7.41992 Murindo
M8.21940 Lima Callao
M8.11974 Lima
M8.11966 Callao
M8.42001 Arequipa
M7.91970 Chimbote
M8.02007 Pisco
M6.91929 Cumana
M6.61967 Caracas
M7.01997 Cariaco
200019000 1950
HQUAKES IN SOUTH AMERICA
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
14/16
regulators are revising the countrys set ofrequirements in the spirit of Europes Solvency II. As
these new regulatory regimes take hold, regulators
and capital markets can gain confidence that
companies are well-positioned to survive the next
major earthquake.
The AIR models can be used to manage risk and
satisfy regulatory requirements that base capital
reserves on probabilistic loss estimates.
South Americas insurance markets are experiencingstrong growth. To safeguard this progress,
regulators are looking to establish model-
based capital requirementsa vastly preferable
alternative to standard formulae that can mandate
reserves that are either too large or insufficient
to reflect the actual risk. In Peru, for example,
the Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros (SBS)
requires domestic insurers to assess their risk by
using catastrophe models. In Chile and Colombia,
SUPPORT FOR COMPLIANCE WITH CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
15/16
view of shake, liquefaction, and tsunami risk inChile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
Combined with AIRs Touchstone catastrophe risk
management platform, the new AIR Earthquake
Models for South America are the most advanced
tools the insurance market will use for assessing
earthquake risk in the region.
Where are your concentrations of exposuresrelative to areas of high hazard? Based on detailed
modeling of your portfolio, how likely are different
levels of loss?
To help you answer these questions and truly
own your risk, AIR is releasing new earthquake
models for South America in the summer of 2015.
The models will provide insurers and industry
stakeholders with the most advanced and current
WHATS YOUR RISK?
7/25/2019 Diego Sudamerica
16/16
ABOUT AIR WORLDWIDE
AIR Worldwide (AIR) is the scientific leader and most respected provider
of risk modeling software and consulting services. AIR founded the
catastrophe modeling industry in 1987 and today models the risk from
natural catastrophes and terrorism in more than 90 countries. More than400 insurance, reinsurance, financial, corporate, and government clients rely
on AIR software and services for catastrophe risk management, insurance-
linked securities, detailed site-specific wind and seismic engineering analyses,
and agricultural risk management. AIR, a Verisk Analytics (Nasdaq:VRSK)
business, is headquartered in Boston with additional offices in North
America, Europe, and Asia. Visit us at www.air-worldwide.com.
2014 AIR Worldwide
top related