Dealing with Small Arms: Scope and Initiatives Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey, Geneva.
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Dealing with Small Arms: Dealing with Small Arms: Scope and InitiativesScope and Initiatives
Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey, Robert Muggah, Small Arms Survey, GenevaGeneva
OutlineOutline What are Small Arms and Light Weapons?What are Small Arms and Light Weapons?
A Global SnapshotA Global Snapshot
Direct Effects: Death and InjuryDirect Effects: Death and Injury
Indirect Effects and CostsIndirect Effects and Costs
Tackling the ProblemTackling the Problem
Unfinished Business and the Way ForwardUnfinished Business and the Way Forward
What are Small Arms and What are Small Arms and Light Weapons?Light Weapons?
Small Arms: handguns, rifles, carbines, assault rifles, machine guns
Light Weapons: heavy machine guns, RPGs, MANPADS over 100mm
Source: UN Group of Governmental Experts, 1997
A Global SnapshotA Global Snapshot
1,130 companies in 98 countries 1,130 companies in 98 countries involved in some aspect of production, involved in some aspect of production, components, repaircomponents, repair
Legal trade worth pproximately $4 Legal trade worth pproximately $4 billion/yearbillion/year
up to one-third is ammunitionup to one-third is ammunition
Illegal trade worth?? – perhaps $1 Illegal trade worth?? – perhaps $1 billionbillion
At least 875 At least 875 million weapons million weapons held worldwideheld worldwide
Who has the Who has the guns:guns:• Approximately Approximately 70% in civilian 70% in civilian handshands• one-quarter in one-quarter in armed forcesarmed forces• a few percent with a few percent with policepolice• … … and less than and less than one percent with one percent with non-state armed non-state armed groupsgroups
Global Distribution: A largelyGlobal Distribution: A largelycivilian arsenalcivilian arsenal
Direct EffectsDirect Effects
More than 300,000 More than 300,000 fatal injuries in 2003fatal injuries in 2003
80-100,000 of these 80-100,000 of these in conflict in conflict
200-270,000 from 200-270,000 from homicide, suicide homicide, suicide and accidentand accident
Young males at high Young males at high riskrisk
Direct Effects by RegionDirect Effects by Region Regional Distribution of Regional Distribution of
homicide/suicidehomicide/suicide(56 countries in 2003)(56 countries in 2003)
15.5
5.9
3.5 3.1
0.41.8 1.5
0.5
3.1
1.1 0.6
5.5
1.4 1.7
0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 Firearm Homicide (per 100,000)
Firearm Suicide (per 100,000)
Gendered Direct EffectsGendered Direct EffectsDistribution of homicide/suicideDistribution of homicide/suicide
(56 countries in 2003)(56 countries in 2003)
2310
37
12
7790
63
88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Homicide FirearmHomicide
Suicide FirearmSuicide
male
Female
Impact Distribution: Impact Distribution: Geography, age and genderGeography, age and gender
Impact Distribution: Urban Impact Distribution: Urban versus Ruralversus Rural
In Brazil:In Brazil:
violence is violence is concentrateconcentrated in large d in large urban urban areas, with areas, with great great inequality, inequality, drug drug trafficking, trafficking, gangs, and gangs, and criminal criminal opportunitieopportunitiess
Indirect EffectsIndirect Effects Excess mortality in Excess mortality in
conflict zones (the vast conflict zones (the vast majority of victims)majority of victims)
Criminal violence: Criminal violence: policing and securitypolicing and security
Costs to health systemCosts to health system
Delivery of basic Delivery of basic services or humanitarian services or humanitarian aid affectedaid affected
Economic opportunity Economic opportunity costscosts
Indirect Indirect deathsdeaths In most conflicts, In most conflicts, indirect deaths indirect deaths make up the make up the majority of victimsmajority of victims
… up to 90 percent of … up to 90 percent of the three million the three million deaths in DRC deaths in DRC between 1999-2003…between 1999-2003…
This “excess This “excess mortality” mortality” depends on access depends on access to food, water, to food, water, shelter and basic shelter and basic health carehealth care
Direct and indirect costs of armed Direct and indirect costs of armed violenceviolence
HumanHuman Social, economic, and other costsSocial, economic, and other costs
Direct Direct Death and injury
Hospital careLost productivity/income Life insurance pay-outInterrupted commerceImpaired tax collection Capital flight Damage to private propertyDamage to infrastructureDamage to agriculture
IndirectIndirect Death and sickness from treatable diseaseDeath and sickness from malnutritionDeath and injury from risk-taking
Lost quality of lifeCare providing (family)Out-patient careMigration/emigration Increased policing IncarcerationHigher insurance ratesHigher commodity pricesLegal servicesReduced GDPLong term productivity/income lossesRe-building property and infrastructureRe-planting/re-stocking agriculture
Cause or symptom?Cause or symptom?Escalatory cycles of armed Escalatory cycles of armed
violenceviolence
Escalating armed violenceEscalating armed violence
Arms racingArms racing Arms acquisitionArms acquisition
Force asymmetriesForce asymmetries
Symptom of Symptom of insecurityinsecurity
Cause of Cause of insecurityinsecurity
Four major sources:Four major sources:State collapse during warState collapse during warRe-cycling from past warsRe-cycling from past warsArming of civilians in response to threatsArming of civilians in response to threatsSupport to foreign armed groupsSupport to foreign armed groups
Key role of the State:Key role of the State:• States are the primary source of small arms States are the primary source of small arms
entering the illicit marketentering the illicit market• State transfers to non-state actors and militias State transfers to non-state actors and militias
feed armed group and criminal acquisitionsfeed armed group and criminal acquisitions• Loss and theft from national stockpiles Loss and theft from national stockpiles
remains a key source of arms and ammunition remains a key source of arms and ammunition in many regionsin many regions
Sources of ProliferationSources of Proliferation
Stemming Illicit Trafficking Stemming Illicit Trafficking and Useand Use
Arms production
legal sales to other
governments
legal transfers to domestic non-state actors (individuals,
brokers, etc.)
acquisitions by national
arsenals in producer states
Licensed arms
production
Improved export & border
controls, monitoring of
shipment routes,
re-exports to other regional
states
Legend:
Weapons production
points of interventio
n
legal acquisitions
major pipeline pipeline that could includelicit and/or illicit transfers
illicit pipeline
Codes of conduct, UN embargoes,
export policies
domestic "leakage":(theft, illicit sales) of
producers' arsenals to non-state actors
licit and/or illicit acquisitions
secondary "leakage":(theft, illicit sales) of
recipients' arsenals to non-state actors
acquisitions by non- national, non-state
actors: insurgent groups,
organized crime, private security forces,
private dealers, individuals
Marking & transparency
measures
re-exports to other non-state actors: insurgent groups organized crime
private security forces private dealers
individuals
Legislation regulating brokers
Marking &transparency measures
Regional accords, codes of conduct
Prohibit transfers to non-state
actors
Prohibit transfers to non-state
actors
Codes of conduct, UN embargoes,
export policies
Increased transpare
ncy
Increased transparency
Improved export & border
controls, monitoring of
shipment routes,
Improved export & border
controls, monitoring of
shipment routes,
Legislation regulating brokers
points of interventio
n
points of intervention
Tackling the Problem: Key Tackling the Problem: Key InitiativesInitiatives
UN Programme of Action (2001)UN Programme of Action (2001)
UN Firearms Protocol (2001, 2005)UN Firearms Protocol (2001, 2005)
UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcementand Firearms by Law Enforcement
OAS Firearms Convention/Model OAS Firearms Convention/Model RegulationsRegulations
European Union initiativesEuropean Union initiatives
OSCE Document on SALWOSCE Document on SALW
ECOWAS Convention, SADC and Nairobi ECOWAS Convention, SADC and Nairobi ProtocolsProtocols
““FirstFirst Generation”Generation”(Supply) (Supply) MeasuresMeasures
Marking, record-keeping and tracing of Marking, record-keeping and tracing of SALWSALW
Export control initiatives: TCI, ATT, etc.Export control initiatives: TCI, ATT, etc. Stockpile management and securityStockpile management and security Weapons destruction, both surplus and Weapons destruction, both surplus and
post-conflictpost-conflict Ammunition (in all its dimensions)Ammunition (in all its dimensions) MANPADSMANPADS End-user certificationEnd-user certification Brokering (including transport/financial Brokering (including transport/financial
agents)agents)
““SecondSecond Generation” (Generation” (Demand) Demand) MeasuresMeasures
Demand for small arms (state and non-Demand for small arms (state and non-state)state)
Small arms and developmentSmall arms and development Small arms and armed violence Small arms and armed violence
reductionreduction Disarmament, Demobilization and Disarmament, Demobilization and
Reintegration Reintegration Small arms and Security Sector ReformSmall arms and Security Sector Reform Victim assistanceVictim assistance
(and gender dimension of all of these topics)
““Unfinished Business”Unfinished Business”
Transparency in production, Transparency in production, transfers, stocks and holdingstransfers, stocks and holdings
Weapons transfers to non-state Weapons transfers to non-state armed groupsarmed groups
National regulation of civilian National regulation of civilian possessionpossession
The Way ForwardThe Way Forward
Develop instruments to deal with Develop instruments to deal with remaining first generation issuesremaining first generation issues
Synchronize processes and reportingSynchronize processes and reporting
Elaborate second generation measures Elaborate second generation measures and practical violence reduction and practical violence reduction programmesprogrammes
Set benchmarks or goals for progress to Set benchmarks or goals for progress to 20202020
Small Arms SurveySmall Arms Survey
www.smallarmssurvey.orgwww.smallarmssurvey.org
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