Transcript
CIMA Research Founda2on
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The Founda+on
A few minutes on the organiza+on
• it was founded as the development of a previous university research center in 2007
• the founders were the Civil Protec+on Department of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers (2 106 €), the regional government of Liguria (0.2 106 €) and the University of Genoa (use without charges of the ac+vity of some researchers for a few of years)
• no annual monetary support from the founding bodies. The Founda+on supports itself on the basis of contracts of na+onal and interna+onal research and consul+ng
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RESEARCH THEMES • Hydro-‐met applica+ons in Civil
Protec+on
• Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduc+on: Targe+ng Extremes
• Marine Biology and Ecosystem Monitoring
• Liability, Responsibility & Governance
of risk • EO assisted applica+ons • ICT Tools in support of research
• Capacity building and Educa+on from the interna+onal to the local dimension
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the numbers of the Foundation
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Chairmanship
Administration Training Management
Project Leaders
Researchers
Ph.D and Post Doc Students
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Staff composi2on (71)
Research staff
Administrative staffPost-DocPh.D. Students
Occasional Staff
External Consultants
Personnel Appointed on
Project
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how we map the Foundation on basic sciences
env.eng.
biologists
physicists
ICT peoplesocial scientists
Research staff composi2on
env.eng.
biologists
physicists
ICT people
social scientists
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How we map Foundation on peer review Int.Journals
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JMEPS
JMS
AWR
CSDAIIN
ME
QJRMS
JGR
JMB
JHM
AMS
NHESS
WRR
ESIJA
SJM
BA EFEMS
Ph.Lett
ers
Fres
enius
B.
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External ConsultantsOccasional StaffPersonnel
Appointed on Project
Ph.D. Students
Post-DocStaff
Research staff costs (2014:1.8 M€)
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Personnel
Travels
Third Institutions
Operational costs
Training Goods
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Total Founda2on costs (2014: 4.2 M€)
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our new goal for the second
decade of the third millennium
environment disasters food and
poverty
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a few historical notes: Mr. Zamberle? in Italy and Mr.Tazieff in France at the same -me appoint at the na-onal scale three Research Groups on hydrological and meterological hazards, on eartquake hazard and on volcano hazard. To assist the Government to build up policies to manage the risk. In Italy a Dept. of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers is named as Protezione Civile. The Head of Civil Protec-on is in charge of coordina-ng the country resources for assessing the risk, diffusing in real -me proper alert messages, rescue vic-ms and support affected people. The Presidency of the Council of Ministers is assisted by a network of research Centers. CIMA Research Founda-on deals with the floods, landslides, drougts and forest fires risks. Understanding the climate change impact on the extreme phenomena is a key issue for predic-ng and planning.
1985 1987 1987 1999 2000 2015
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hydro-‐meteo risk; earthquake risk, volcanic risk
CIMA Res. Founda-on Univ. Of Genoa Dept. Prot. Civile
Fond.EUCENTRE Univ. of Pavia
Dept. Prot. Civile
Observatory of Mount Vesuvius
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opera-onal room
room staff
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the Italian Civil Protec+on Department
of the Presidency of the Council of
Ministers
Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on, ROME
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re-‐building
preven7on
mi7ga7on
emergency
back to life
Disaster Disaster Risk Reduc-on
Cycle
preparedness
PROPER CIVIL PROTECTION ACTIONS
WHERE DOES THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL PROTECTION WORKS IN THE CYCLE
OF THE RISK REDUCTION
..Pre-‐disaster ac2vi2es that are undertaken within the context of disaster risk management and are based on sound risk analysis. This includes the development/enhancement of an overall preparedness strategy, policy, ins2tu2onal structure, warning and forecas2ng capabili2es, and plans that define measures geared to helping at-‐risk communi2es safeguard their lives and assets by being alert to hazards and taking appropriate ac2on in the face of an imminent threat or an actual disaster (ISDR’s defini2on)…
UN-‐ISDR
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Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
Steps for the prepara2on
1. KNOW THE VULNERABILITY AND RISK SCENARIOS
2. IMPLEMENTING RISK PREDICTION AND EARLY WARNING
3. BUILDING A GOOD PERFORMANCE IN BACK TO LIFE ACTIVITY
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Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
PREPARE A RISK SCENARIO
…figures dendent on space and 2me….
q Iden2fying, zoning, quan2fying the DANGER (P)
q Loca-on and evalua-on of the numbers (N) and the value, social and economic, for different categories of exposed en--es(E)
q Determina2on of the overall vulnerability(V)
q Defini2on of the expected damage (D) given the event. D= E x V
R = P x E x V = P x D Uff. Previsione e Prevenzione
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Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
An example of residual risk
the effect of ac-ons can be considered in the defini-on of risk through indices (Iv) of effec-veness of specific interven-ons:example
q IV interven-ons to reduce vulnerability
Uff. Previsione e Prevenzione
T=50anni
T=200 years
rischio residuo
difesa domes-ca da inondazione riduce la frequenza dei danni
inondazione molto frequente, T=5-‐10 anni elevata vulnerabilità
the low probability events remain unchanged – PROCIV early warnings Insurance
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Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
They say, in Rome, that the Early Warning System of Italian Civil Protec-on is among the most advanced in the world:
Understanding and mapping the danger
Monitoring physical processes and predict upcoming events
Dissemina-ng clear alerts by poli-cal authori-es Popula-on undertaking appropriate -mely ac-on as a result of warnings
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Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
Strategy: integra-ng the tools for real -me and the tools for mi-ga-on -me
Policy of Early Warning
Previsioni modellis2che Inondazioni storiche -‐ AGGIORNAMENTO
Espos2 – Centri abita2
Strategy: public and private sector coopera-ng in the collec-ng observa-ons and informa-ons to build scenarios
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Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
early warning systems are much more than a technological tool, are a whole technological system, social, even cultural. The civil protec-on system includes ci-zens and their consciousness of the risk as ac-ve component: ci-zens must believe on the effec-veness of an early warning system and should know how to behave once alerted.
Civil Protec2on System for Early Warning INSURANCE
“Empowering the ci-zens” airaverso l’interoperabilità fra sistemi, necessità di una determinazione del rischio sul territorio condivisa (pubblico, privato, ciiadini)
the biggest barrier to the penetra-on of insurance is the lack of risk percep-on
CICLO VIRTUOSO
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The NP-‐HFA is ( or beier should be) an en-ty that promotes a more open and effec-ve dialogue between stakeholders in a shared interna-onally. It promotes the development of financial mechanisms and risk transfer, in par-cular insurance and re-‐insurance against disasters It encourages the forma-on of partnerships to increase public-‐private partnerships involving the private sector in the ac-vi-es of risk reduc-on: Sponsors of a risk culture Allocates of resources in the pre-‐event for risk assessment and for the implementa-on of early warning systems Develops and promotes alterna-ve and innova-ve financial instruments to deal with disasters.
Na2onal Plagorm of Hyogo Framework for Ac2on (NP-‐HFA)
DPC è il coordinatore della piaiaforma
Presidency of the Council of Ministers -‐ Department of Civil Protec2on
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The Founda+on ac+vity
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Predictability of meteorological extremes Modeling and predic-on of floods and droughts Observa-on of hydro-‐meteorological variables
Data fusion and data assimila-on
Modeling and predic-on of forest fires
Modeling and predic-on of pollutants dispersion in water, s soil and atmosphere
CIMA Research Founda-on ac-vity is financed by research and technological innova-on contracts with the Italian Civil Protec-on and regional governments, with UNDP, UN-‐ISDR, UE, NGO and public and private companies.
Predictive ability of severe
rainfall events over Catalonia
for year 2008
master thesis reportDirectors: Dra. Maria Carme Llasat Botija
(UB)Dr. Antonio Parodi (CIMA Res.
Foundation)Albert Comellas Prat
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1-‐Climate change impacts on the organiza-on of the date base of events severity, which is a cri-cal issue for predic-ng and planning
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2-‐Climate change impacts on the rate of transforma-on of the territory, which is a cri-cal issue for adapta-on
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3-‐Climate change impacts on the legisla-on for risk mi-ga-on, which is a cri-cal issue for social responsibility
Italian direc-ve 2004 European direc-ve 2008
1992 Italian Civil Protec-on legisla-on
1993-‐98 Regional Civil Protec-on regula-ons
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modern predic-on and communica-on of the ground effects greatly improves the social response
tradi-onal modeling
DEWETRA – Real Time fields of rain intensity, Temperature, …..
RT- Rain Intensity mapTime range
distributed complex modeling
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The Founda+on and the role of remote sensing
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new modelling with up to date DEM and data observed by sensors on board of satellites do deserve for improving ground processes predic-on
DEWETRA – Risk AssessmentAn example .
RISICO model gives a Wildfire risk index which represents the potential fire linear intensity (kW/m). It also estimate the wildfire risk index forecast for the next 72 hours.
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december 30 2009 – inunda-on of Massaciuccoli area, reclaimed by Medici family, 1570, Pisa-‐Italy Elabora-on from the SAR data flying on the Cosmo SkyMed fleet of the Italian Space Agency with the system DEWETRA of the Civil Protec-on-‐Cima Research Founda-on.
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January 9 2010 – inunda-on of Skutari area, reclaimed by Venice, 1550, Skutari-‐Albania Elabora-on from the SAR data flying on the Cosmo SkyMed fleet of the Italian Space Agency with the system DEWETRA of the Civil Protec-on-‐Cima Research Founda-on.
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July 2010, Indo river flooding, water depth near Peshawuar Elabora-on from the SAR data flying on the Cosmo SkyMed fleet of the Italian Space Agency with the system DEWETRA of the Civil Protec-on-‐Cima Research Founda-on.
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Cosmo/Skymed images acquired near Scutari (Albania) in Stripmap mode (pixel resampling at 10 meters), in descending configura7on with right look angle Delle Piane et al., FR4.L07.5, Fr. 17:00 Pierdicca et al., FR4.L07.1, Fr. 15:40
CIMA RESEARCH FOUNDATION
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2007-‐2012 Demonstra-ve pilot project of ASI (Italian Space Agency) and DPC (Department for Civil Protec-on) for EO-‐based applica-ons
Mul--‐mission, focus on COSMO-‐Skymed
Elena Angiati3, Giorgio Boni2, Laura Candela1, Fabio Castelli4, Silvana Dellepiane3, Fabio Delogu2, Fabio Pintus5, Roberto Rudari2, Sebastiano B. Serpico3, Stefania Traverso2, Cosimo Versace6. 1Italian Space Agency, Unità Osservazione Della Terra, CGS, Contrada Terlecchia, 75100 Matera (Italy) 2CIMA Research Founda-on, Savona University Campus,Via Armando Maglioio 2, I-‐17100 Savona (Italy) 3University of Genoa, Dept. of Biophysical and Electronic Eng. (DIBE),Via Opera Pia 11a, I-‐16145, Genoa (Italy) 4University of Florence, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Eng. (DICEA), via S. Marta, 3 -‐ 50139 Firenze (Italy) 5ACROTEC S.r.L., Via Armando Maglioio, 2 17100 Savona (Italy) 6CONSORZIO COS (OT), Via Casalnuovo, 86, 75100 Matera (Italy)
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And now the NASA puzzle (courtesy of NASA-‐restricted circula-on):why NASA distributes such a trick? At the Founda-on we feel there is a basic misunderstanding.
§ The Founda-on unit dealing with satellite sensors for environmental monitoring shares the interest on satellites images but our paradigm is slightly different then NASA
§ Not from data to images, but from data to models and possibly, when needed for communica-on purposes, from models to images: in the analysis of environmental transforma-ons and environmental disasters, images are not enough.
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The Founda+on and the new paradigms in modelling
Con+nuous chains from
meteorology to hydrology and hydraulics
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hip://www.drihm.eu/
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NASA EARTH Observatory. Image acquired December 30 2004 by the European Space Agency astronaut Alexander Gerst. On upper les corner, the orography
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9 October 2014. Mean sea level pressure (Pa) at 00UTC from ECMWF re-‐analysis on October 9 2014 run at 00UTC. A pressure gradient of the order of 4%0 in a space not exceeding 100 km is established between the western Po floodplain and the Ligurian sea.
9 October 2014. Daily mean T2m temperature provided by the Italian Civil Protec-on Department ground network. Sea Surface Temperature provided by the Global 1-‐km Sea Surface Temperature data set produced by the JPL Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). A temperature gradient of 8-‐9 C is established between the western Po floodplain and the Ligurian sea.
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observed reflec-vity field evolu-on at eleva-on z= 3000 m amsl (Seiepani meteo radar) from 01:30UTC to 07:00UTC
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The Founda+on and the uncertainty in predic+ng
understanding the uncertainty is a ques-on of
swans I’ll open this part of the lecture with a quite exhaus-ve example. The example is aimed to introduce, without lengthy use of the concept of probability, a discussion on the uncertainty in the hydrometeorogical predic-ons and its social relevance. In fact the decision maker of Civil Protec-on, in any of his levels, from municipal to suprana-onal agencies, is confronted with uncertainty.
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Taleb's thesis "Simply, we cannot predict" is the -tle of the second part of his book The Black Swan. The impact of the highly improbable Mediocristan: a world in which the experts are able to measure the uncertainty of future observa-ons from the observa-ons of the past Extremistan: a world where in some cases the future eludes the measurements of the experts and catches them Where we live? How we learn from the past? Which errors are possible? Which is our responsibility when we do wrong? The society is equipped to respond to the impact of the highly improbable?
supponiamo che esistano diecimila universi tu? uguali
each of them with identical Thirrenian seas, with the same topography and hydrography of the coastal area
Genoa
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the stream
the soccer stadium
with ten thousand identical cities of Genoa with the same urban planning developed in the same way
the stream covered
the stream mouth
the stream
the soccer stadium
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with ten thousand iden-cal streams covered by an en-re monumental district designed by the archistar of the fascist period
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the urban development from 1400 to 1937, five years aser the stream was covered
the event theater
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full bank level
flooding level
when an extreme flood is carried to the sea the space under the cover is not enough. The water level rises and touches the inner surface of the cover. The flow under the cover is suddenly reduced and a wave of reflux propagates back. Suddenly the excess discharge inundates the streets on the two enbankments.
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Sunday it will rain for at least twelve hours, and the rain depth will possibly be equal or exceeding 200 mm
now let us suppose that out of the ten thousand universes a fall extreme storm is announced in, say, three hundred of them
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Sunday, october xx 199y
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let us choose now, at random, the universe A, one out of the three hundred universes in which Sunday it will rain a lot. Describe the event. It starts raining at noon and it rains until midnight, but more than two third of the total depth fall continuously at the beginning of the event.
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teams had to play their first league match in the soccer stadium near the stream
capacity of 40,000. Heavy rains. Only 10,000 soaked fans under their umbrellas waiting to see if the match will start. Three o’ clock sharp. The referee comes out and throws the ball to see if it bounces over the green. SPLASH. Again SPLASH and again SPLASH.
. the referee whistles: game postponed. Ten thousand people leaving, walking along the streets on the embankments. The stream exceeds the full bank flow. The water touches the cover.The reflux wave explodes back. The river inundates the two roads. The water drags pedestrians and cars
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Sunday, xx oiobre 199y
B
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let us continue to examine the three hundred universes. Call B the second one. It starts raining at noon and it rains until midnight. More than 200 mm. Less than half in the three hours at the beginning of the event and the most at the end.
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teams had to play their first league match in the soccer stadium near the stream
capacity of 40,000. Heavy rains. Only 10,000 soaked fans under their umbrellas waiting to see if the match will start. Three o’ clock sharp. The referee comes out and throws the ball to see if it bounces over the green. SPLASH. Again SPLASH and again SPLASH.
. the referee whistles: game postponed. Ten thousand people leaving, walking along the streets on the embankments. The stream does not exceed the full bank flow. 10000 fans reached back their destinations soaked under their umbrellas.
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about nine o'clock in the evening it starts again to rain hard. It rains for three hours continuously. The stream exceeds the level of full bank flow. Same scenario that we've seen in the universe A. The difference is that in the universe B it happens shortly after midnight. Subways are closed. No one in the streets. Only parked cars. The buses are in the night garages. Many damages. No victims.
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The event in the universe B, that did happen late in the night, when the Genoeses were all home, is almost as unlikely-‐or likely-‐ as that of the Universe A. And so, among others, two professors of Civil Engineering are s-ll teaching at the University of Genoa. They went to watch the match between Sampdoria and Milan, and survived. Why? Because they were in the universe B, so we discovered aser the event. Do you perceive how thin is the physical role of the uncertainty and how large is the social one?
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A few weeks aser the presenta-on of such an example in Rome an extreme event hit the area I just described. Very similar flooding, around one o’ clock in the asernoon, with pupils leaving the schools. Six casual-es. Warnings were issued the day before. I had to explain to newspaper and tv people that’s impossible to predict weeks before the event. That my tale at the conference was not a forecast. Because to predict where and how it’s easy, but to forecast when and how much is quite another maier. That’s the reason why the 2011 event in Genoa was chosen as a study case for Founda-on.
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Why e-‐infrastructures for Civil Protec-on? Thirty years ago I began, with a few friends, the construc-on of the system of Italian Civil Protec-on. We put every effort in so-‐called non-‐structural measures, those useful measures to alert the authori-es and ci-zens when a paroxysm of meteorology could bring water to their homes, and kill and destroy proper-es and means of produc-on. So they could be ready to accept resctric-ons on the use of the land and proper-es, but also so that they could take simple temporary protec-ve measures. Because we can -‐ it always has been -‐ live in flood prone areas. The paroxysmal events are rare and do not strike in the same place.
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Dealing with uncertainty. By the use of ensemble predic-on in meteorology and by the use of disaggrega-on of predicted rainfall fields from meteo to hydro scales. The Italian system for predic-ons is now distributed into a number of technical groups of meteo and hydro experts at the local scale and a coordina-ng group at the na-onal scale. More than one hundred skilled people. The procedures are extending to the whole Europe as a best prac-ce for the European Civil Protec-on, presently under transforma-on and strengthening. That’s the reason why I think that DRIHM e-‐infrastructure is a very promising hot spot in hydrometeorological research.
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S-ll research needs? Oh, yes. Nassim N. Taleb, published in 2007 "The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable". The book created intense controversy in mathema-cal circles. It deeply revises the paradigms of the forecast of future states of a system, based on the observa-on of past states. The Taleb thesis, in essence, is that the human condi-on, which learns from experience, forces into a mental tunnel the predic-ons of what might happen. The predic-on tunnel is formed by the experience of past events, among which the highly unlikely event almost never appears because it is very rare and therefore almost never belonged to the experience.
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I did try to offer the example in a way that I hope is readable. I did it in order to avoid that e-‐infrastructures are perceived as the saving solu-on to all the problems of dealing with uncertainty. e-‐infrastructures allow the operators to operate repeated simula-ons of reality much faster than before and so give the operators -me to think. The basic problems, why we have to think the members of the ensembles, true ensambles or poor man ensembles, equiprobable, or why we have to think members of the rainfall field disaggrega-on indipendent on the terrain orography, are s-ll there as food for the minds of young researchers.
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Why e-‐infrastructures for DRR? For climate change applica-ons the Taleb’s effect stays upstream of the future meteorological possible states. The uncertainty is absorbed into the construc-on of future clima-c systems. Their effects are highly unlikely events per se. Contrary DHIHM e-‐infrastructure plays the essen-al role of a specific tool, a quite powerful tool, to inves-gate the effects at small scale, i.e. the scale of the impacts, condi-onal on possible meteorological states. It’s the tool for evalua-ng the effects of disaster scenarios through repeated simula-on experiments that the e-‐infrastructure easily allows.
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Why DRIHM, in essence? There is no doubt that the e-‐infrastructure is the most appropriate tool to facilitate the work of forecasters in the field of civil protec-on and simplify the role of risk managers or planners in the field of disaster risk reduc-on. However, as I hinted, here and there, there is s-ll a lot of food for the mind. I wish you a long career of reflec-ons and successes. Like I had. Thanks for your aien-on.
Monitoring the effec2veness of the Italian Civil Protec2on System: Decision making in a overcau2ous jurispruden2al environment
A few word more on trial environment
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20 mm
July 2nd, 2006
200 mm
July 3rd, 2006
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Our Observatory
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Observed cri-cali-es
Civil Protec-on effec-veness
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Performance paradox in CP
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Soios-ma -‐ Mancate Allerte Sovras-ma -‐ False Allerte Correie
6% 10% 84 % 1% 60% 39 %
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Underes-ma-on – missed alerts Overes-ma-on – false alerts Correct
Observed cri-cali-es
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• Increased number of alerts; • Increased level of alerts; • Adop-on of restric-ve measures (i.e. evacua-ons, mobility limita-ons…);
• Preven-ve shutdown of public, private produc-ve buildings.
Ac-ve “defensive behaviour”:
• Resigna-on from appointments (lowered professional level of CP operators);
• Fragmenta-on of mandates (nobody wants to take decisions in an uncertain world);
• Suppression of services.
Passive “defensive behaviour”:
• Fears of dutyholders; • Inflexibility of the system.
Impossibility of valorising mistakes:
Observed Cri-cali-es
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Access to informa2on
Consulta2on of available documenta2on
Par2cipatory approaches for emergency planning
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One (out of many) possible way foreward
CIMA Research Founda2on thank you for your pa7ence
on behalf of
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