David molden sikkim 2

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Can mountains deliver enough water for the future?Climate change, and the supply and demand of a scarce resource for food, energy and environmental security

David Molden

Importance of Mountain Regions

Mountains occupy 24% of global land surface; home to 12% population; About 10% of world’s population directly depend on the mountains for their livelihoods; 40% indirectly depend on water, hydroelectricity, timber, biodiversity and niche products, mineral resources, recreation, and flood control

• How much more water is needed for food, drinking, energy and environment?

How much water do you consume?

Drinking water

Household Use

1 kg rice

1 kg beef

Daily Diet

– 2 to 5 liters per day– 20 to 2,000 liters per day– 500 to 3,000 liters– 5,000 to 20,000 liters– 2,000 to 5,000 liters per day

depending on diets and how food is produced

Limits – Reached or Breached

Land degradation – limits productivityRiver basins closed –Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya

……… no additional water leftGroundwater overdraft – in breadbaskets and rice

bowls Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit,

aquaculture will become more prevalentLivestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will

come based on feed

Overexploitation, -but also opportunities for use

Groundwater

Global map of groundwater depletion, where 1000 on the legend is equal to one cubic kilometer of depletion per year. Source: Wada, Y., van Beek, L.P.H., van Kempen, C.M., Reckman, J.W.T.M., Vasak, S. and Bierkens, M.F.P. (2010) Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 37, L20402, doi:10.1029/2010GL044571

Breadbasket Areas dependent on GW

Water Scarcity 2000

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Other Water Pressures

Population & Diet – food grain production projected to increase by over 70% by 2050

Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025, encroach on ag land

Agriculture – Increased water use and land expansion behind production increases

Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land

Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability

Drivers of Land & Water Use

Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

Today

Without Water Productivity Gains,

Crop ET doubles by 2050

2050

More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050More calories & more meat, fish, milkMore food production –grain productionincrease 70 to 100% by 2050

Water Use – Today and 2050

No Water Productivity

Gains

Source: IWMI

1505

1692

164

2860

3215

312

Agriculture ET in 2000 and 2050no water productivity gains

South Asia

East Asia Central Asia

Need to produce more food, but minimize extra water use –Change is needed

Source: IWMI

Installed and potential hydropower potential in the Himalayan region

Country Potential (MW)

Installed (MW) % contribution to total supply

Bhutan 23,760 1,465 100

China 272,000 NA 16.4

India 114,398 24,530 17.4

Nepal 42,630 658 92

Pakistan 46,000 6,608 33.4

Water Use – Today and 2050

Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA by IWMI

Today

CA Scenario

No Water Productivity

Gains

CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can

further reduce water needs

2050

Conclusion

• The demand is growing, yet water is already scarce in the region.

• There is scope for management improvement.

With Climate Change,Can Mountains Deliver Enough Water?

• Changes in glaciers and snow

• More natural disasters• Impact on water, food,

and energy• Species migration &

biodiversity loss• Changes in vegetation

cover• Women and children at

front line

Impacts of Climate Change

How Much Water Will be Available?

www.icimod.org

1.2 Billion People Downstream

Liu and Chen, 2000

Elevation-temperature trend relationship (Tibetan Plateau)

Impact of Climate Change - Imja Glacier, Nepal

2006 photograph of Imja

glacier(Photo: Giovanni Kappenberger

courtesy of Alton C Byers)

1956 photograph of Imja glacier (Photo: Fritz

Muller; courtesy of Jack Ives)

Glaciers are shrinkingaccording to many studies

Note: Brackets include name of glacier or region with associated number/area (km2) of glaciers studied if more than one single glacier; U=Uttarakhand, HP=Himachal Pradesh

Source: Miller et al. (2011)

56 GLOF events in HKH region:Bhutan 4, China 29, Nepal 14, Pakistan 9, 10 transboundary

Importance of melt water

Amu Darya River Source Walter Immerzeel

Black Carbon

• Brick kilns

• Cook-stoves

• Open burning

• Diesel vehicles

• Forest fires

Black Carbon MitigationMultiple Benefits

Multiple Benefits of Mitigation:• Less temperature rise• Reduced glacial and snow melt• Health benefits

Nov to AprilSkies

Mountains and Water Supply

• Glaciers are retreating, with some exceptions, like Karakorum.

• Flow depends on glacier, snow and permafrost melt; but rain is often dominant.

• Dry areas and mountains areas close to source are more vulnerable to glacier melt.

• Changes in timing and variability – a major concern – floods and droughts

Flood events in the HKH

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Num

ber o

f eve

nts

Source: EMDAT OFDA CRED Database

Mountain Solutions for Water

1. Reduce vulnerabilities to floods and droughts

• Increase monitoring and early warning

• Increased attention to glacial lakes

• Invest in water storage – including conservation of natural storage

• Work across borders to share information and experience

2. Find solutions in the water-food-energy nexus

• Hydropower-food-livelihoods-environment: increase synergies, deal with tradeoffs

• Clean energy to reduce black carbon and glacier melt

3. Improved Landscape Management

• Watershed management

• Address shifting cultivation

• Local and regional (US/DS) payoffs

Source: Robert Yoder, IWMI

Community Management

4. Value services provided by mountain people and ecosystems

• Compensate for them• Provide economic incentives to

communities• Work across borders

5. Reduce scientific uncertainties

• About the cryosphere• Indigenous and local knowledge• Address data gaps

Himalayas: A blank spot in

IPCC AR4

6. Put mountains on the global agenda

• Mountains are a global resource for food, energy, biodiversity

• Global and regional activities put mountains and mountain people under pressure

• National, regional and global attention must go to mountains

Thank you