Contribution Analysis Toolkit Release Launch!...Contribution Analysis Toolkit Release Launch! July 18, 2018 Housekeeping • Webinar is Being Recorded –Will Be Posted with Other

Contribution Analysis Toolkit

Release Launch!

July 18, 2018

Housekeeping

• Webinar is Being Recorded

– Will Be Posted with Other Toolkit Materials

• Q&A

– Use the Question Panel, we’ll have 20 min for

Q&A at the end.

– Written answers to questions will also be

posted

Department of Energy Cities-LEAPCities Leading through Energy Analysis and

Planning

Agenda

• Overview of the problem

• What the tool does, and what you need to use it

• Results from Project Steering Committee

• How to get the toolkit

• Not Discussing the details of how it works today

The Challenge of Inventory Progress

Tracking

What’s Influencing Changes

What is the “Contribution” of Each

Factor?

• Inventory Inputs– Emissions Factors, Fuel Economy

• Operating Conditions– Weather, Economic Environment

• What is in the community– Population, Building Area

• Local Action

Steering Committee:– King County, WA– Bellevue, WA– Santa Monica, CA– Aspen, CO– Metro Washington Council of Governments– Delaware Valley Regional Planning Council

Additional Pilot Communities– Hayward, CA– Nashville TN– Cleveland, OH– Denver, CO– Miami-Dade County, FL

– Durham, NC– Olympia, WA– Shoreline, WA– Ashland, OR

The Project: Develop Methods & Test

Spreadsheet Tool

Contribution Analysis Accounts for:

• Change to Inventory Inputs– Separates the relative impact of Emissions Factor and

Total Activity

• Change to Operating Conditions– Determine relationship between weather and city

performance to account for change

• Change to what’s in the Community– Simple “per-capita”, “per-employment” differences

• Local Action– Subtract the remainder

Basic Data Needs

• Two inventories

– Consistent Methods

• Demographic data (federal sources):– # of Households,

– Commercial floor area or employment,

– GDP/person

Data Needs to Account for Weather

• Develop relationship between weather and community energy use with regression techniques– Similar to what you may have done with building

weather normalization

• Need monthly electricity, natural gas usage– DOE Developing Data Source

• Daily weather—available from National Climate Data Center

Local Programs

• Need to have already performed an

evaluation of the action

• Limit the analysis to the time period

between inventories

• The tool puts the reductions in the overall

framework

Current Limitations

• Designed to work with the data that is typically available for practitioners

• Factors where needed data are not generally available– GDP & Energy Use

– Detailed building characteristics

– Changing plug loads and EVs

• These factors need qualitative interpretations

Steering Committee Results

Jennifer Ewing, Environmental Stewardship Program ManagerCity of Bellevue, WA

Analyzing Drivers of Change in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories

Bellevue, Washington

• Population = 140,000

• Jobs = 140,000

Bellevue Environmental Stewardship Program

Mobility & Land Use

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Energy & Water

Materials Management & Waste

Ecosystems & Open Spaces

Plan includes:• 17 Sustainability Indicators• 57 Actions

Bellevue Emissions by Sector

Community and Per Capita Emissions: What is Driving the Changes?

Page

2006 – 2017 Trends:• -7% total emissions• -23% per capita• 20% Population growth14.7

14.0

12.711.9

13.112.8

11.1

11.4

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500

1000

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2006 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Emis

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Tho

usa

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Other

Industrial Energy

Residential Energy

Commercial Energy

Transportation

Solid Waste

MTCO2e per capita

Bellevue Contribution Analysis, 2011-2017

Bellevue Contribution Analysis, 2011-2017Detailed Chart

23

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Regional GHG Goals and Trends

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Metropolitan Washington GHG Trends

10% reduction in GHG emissions, 2005 - 2015

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Metro Washington Drivers of Change

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Sub-Region A Drivers of Change

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Sub-Region B Drivers of Change

Better GHG data for targeted

Climate Action Plans

Chris Menges – Climate Action Office 7/18/18

Historical Context

20041st GHG Inventory

20061st Vulnerability

Assessment

20071st Climate Action

Plan

GHG Planning Sectors:

Progress, Forecast, Needed Reductions

New Climate Action Plan for 2018-2020

• 1.5 year process

• Guided by ‘Advisory Committee’

• Data as foundation

CAP: 46 actionsToolkit: 250 actions

Identifying Strategies

Data Used: GHG Sources, Trends, Forecast, Carbon intensity

Evaluating & Selecting Strategies

Data used: GHG Reduction potential, qualitative data (e.g. feasibility).

Programmatic & policy anecdotes

Data needed:

How much did

each of these

reduce GHGs?

Existing data insights: supply and demand

Supply-side changes, e.g. – Electric portfolio

– Vehicle fuel economy

Demand-side changes, e.g.– MMBtu (kWh, therms)

– Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT)

Demand change

drivers?

Most effective

programs?

Other drivers?

Insights: Contribution Analysis

Future use: Contribution Analysis2

01

7

-GHG Inventory

-Contribution Analysis (CA)

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18

-20

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-CAP Implementation

-Gathering programmatic data

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20

-GHG Inventory

-Contribution Analysis (CA)

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21

CAP Update

w/ CA data

Takeaways: Contribution Analysis

• Better insights = better planning

• = More reductions

• = Better chance of achieving goals

• An emerging best practice

• Where we need to go

Many Applications of This Type of

Analysis

• Communicating Progress & Putting Results in Context

• Raising the role of Advocacy for State & Federal Policies

• Tailoring action to address headwinds

• Identify unreliable data sources

Summary of 14 Demonstration Cities

Toolkit Overview

• Downloadable Zip File

– Excel workbook tool

– Full Guide Book

– Quick Start Guide

– Data request templates

– Data collection checklist

Accessing Toolkit

• www.icleiusa.org/ghg-contribution-analysis

– On-Demand Walkthrough Training

– Recorded Webinars

• Related DOE & C-LEAP Resources at:

https://www.energy.gov/eere/analysis/drivers-

change-local-greenhouse-gas-emissions-toolkit

Upcoming Training

• Thursday August 9th

– Details of data collection

– Entering data into the tool

– Working with outputs

• Training on Interpretation

– September

Questions

Thank You!

Jennifer Ewing JEwing@bellevuewa.gov

Maia Davis mdavis@mwcog.org

Chris Menges Chris.Menges@cityofaspen.com

Ookie Ma seungwook.ma@ee.doe.gov

Mike Steinhoff Michael.Steinhoff@iclei.org

Emma Johnson; Bellevue, WA Hoi-Fei Mok, ICLEI-USA

Ashley Perl; Aspen CO Eli Yewdall, ICLEI-USA

Garrett Wong; Santa Monica, CA Angie Fyfe, ICLEI-USA

Jonathan Dickinson, WSP Consulting Jeffrey King, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Kendra White, Cascadia Consulting Timothy Masters, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Andrea Martin, Cascadia Consulting Robert Graff, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission

Carrie Lee;King County, WA Shawn Legendre, Delaware Valley Regional Planning

Rachel Brombaugh; King County, WA Roel Hammerschlag, Hammerschlag & Co. LLC

Matt Kuharic; King County, WA Megan Day, NREL

David Bielin, NREL

Full Project Team

Contribution Analysis Launch 7/18/18 - Webinar Written Responses to Questions

Question Answer

Are per capita emissions {for Bellevue} reported relative to residential population or service population (residents + jobs)? Thanks!

A: residential population

Bellevue: can you elaborate on how you assess the impact of hotter summers and warmer winters with variability of annual weather and a relatively short assesmment period (6 years)?

A: The key is in obtaining monthly utility data to supplement the annual figure in the inventory. With this information an regression model of the community-scale response to changes in heating and cooling degree days can be developed to use in this step of the process

Can you go over the emissions sectors included in the tool (e.g., energy, agriculture, wastewater)?

A: The tool does not have any explicit support for evaluating contributions to the changes in performance of these sectors, but the overall change up or down can be illustrated in the waterfall chart produced by the tool

Do you anticipate that the Interpretation Training in September will cover best practice for explaining the results of the analysis to lay audiences?

A: Yes, that will be a primary focus

For those of us that don't have multiple GHG inventories available to input into the tool, the broader lessons learned from across the 14 cities in the pilot is incredibly useful for helping make the case. Will ICLEI or DOE be developing messaging materials to support a broader dissemination of lessons learned through C-LEAP?

A: Yes, ICLEI will be continuing to explore applications of the tool and promote the work at least through the end of the year through the grant and ultimately will be worked into our core programing

How do you quantify the impact of some of these contributions? E.g., clean electricity grid seems reasonably easier to understand (because you typically know where elec is sourced from). But how do you quantify decreased driving per person? Thanks!

A: Some factors like VMT per person are simply imputed from the inventory inputs (total VMT and population from each inventory) as opposed to modeled from the bottom up.

I am not using a mic - Is ICLEI membership requried to access the toolkit?

A: ICLEI Membership not required to access the tool as it was a funded from the federal government

Is monthly data something we should request from the utilities as we ask them for updated info for our new inventory?

A: Yes, it would be convenient to make those requests at the same time, though it should be noted that monthly data is not required for every inventory year.

Is the low solid waste emissions for Bellevue due to no local landfill? Or does that account t for your total solid waste stream?

A: the landfill and composting emissions are Scope 3 methane and CO2 emissions, and occur outside of our boundaries. We used the GPC to calculate these emissions based on the total tonnage collected in Bellevue from residents and businesses.

Is there room in the toolkit to add emissions sectors that might not already be included? (e.g., high GWP gases, special stationary sources)

A: ICLEI may look to make additions to the toolkit however the excel workbook is not password protected and users are encouraged to extend the methodology to additional sectors where data supports it

Is three ghg inventories adequate sample size for using this tool?

A: Two inventories in the minimum and the toolkit can be applied to any two pairs; for example Year 1 to Year 2 AND Year 2 to Year 3

It's great that you do a GHG inventory year. How often do you report on the implementation status of actions in the Strategic Plan? Thanks!

A: We do a bi-annual update to city council and a 5-year update to the current plan. We are currently moving towards an annual inventory cycle.

Under the contribution analysis (namely for the City of Aspen), are the contributions from the change in energy use disaggregated from the contributions from changes in weather?

The analysis takes place in a stepwise fashion such that changes due to weather are disaggregated from changes in emissions factor and changes in energy use are further disaggregated from the weather.