Connecting Air Pollution, Climate Change, Energy and Health

Connecting Air Pollution, Climate Change, Energy and Health

J. Jason WestDepartment of Environmental

Sciences & EngineeringUniversity of North Carolina,

Chapel Hill

Beijing – January 14, 2013Some stations reported >500 µg m-3 24-hr avg.

PM2.5 (>20 times the WHO guideline)

• Air pollution is underappreciated for global health.• Air pollution and its health impacts are changing globally, and

will change in ways interrelated with climate change.• Air pollution science offers new possibilities: new

measurement methods measuring more chemical components, cheap sensors that can be widely deployed, satellites, and models.

• There is a need for the communities of air pollution science and air pollution health effects science to work together better.

Meteorology

Emissions

Typical horizontal resolutions:Global model – 5 to 0.5 degreesRegional model (continental) – 50 to 10 km

Concentrations

Chemical Mechanism

Modeling Global Air Pollution & Health

Health Function

Incidence Data

Health Impacts

7

Health impact function

∆Mort = y0 x AF x Pop

β = Concentration-response factor

Baseline mortality rate

Exposed Population

- Respiratory diseases (RESP)(inc. COPD – chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)

- Cardiovascular diseases (inc. IHD – ischemic heart disease,STROKE – cerebrovascular disease)

- Lung Cancer (LC)

(≈ CPD)

∆Mort = y0 x (1-exp-βΔX) x Pop

ΔX = Change in concentration

8

Population and Baseline Mortality Rates

Total Population, persons(Landscan 2011 at 30”x30”gridded to 0.67°x0.5°)

Baseline Mortality Rates, deaths per year per 100,000(GBD 2010, country level, AllAges > gridded to 0.67°x0.5°)

IHD

COPD

Stroke

LC

3,839 million

Population 25+, persons(Landscan 2011 at 30”x30”gridded to 0.67°x0.5°)

6,946 million

-20% Global Anthrop. Methane Emissions:30,200 avoided premature deaths in 2030

due to reduced ozone

West et al., PNAS, 2006

Ozone from N. American and

European emissions causes more deaths

outside of those regions than within

Avoided deaths (hundreds) from 20% regional ozone precursor reductions, based on HTAP simulations, Anenberg et al. (EST, 2009)

11

Global mortality burden – ACCMIP ensemble

Ozone-related mortality PM2.5-related mortality(*)

470,000 (95% CI: 140,000 - 900,000) 2.1 million (95% CI: 1.3 - 3.0 million)

(*) PM2.5 calculated as a sum of species (dark blue)PM2.5 as reported by 4 models (dark green) Light-colored bars - low-concentration threshold (5.8 µg m-3)

Silva et al. (ERL, 2013)

12

Global Burden: Ozone-related mortality

Respiratory mortality , deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1, multi-model mean in each grid cell , 14 models

Global and regional mortality per year

Regions Total deaths

Deaths per

million people (*)

North America 34,400 121

Europe 32,800 96

Former Soviet Union 10,600 66

Middle East 16,200 68

India 118,000 212

East Asia 203,000 230

Southeast Asia 33,300 119

South America 6,970 38

Africa 17,300 73

Australia 469 29

Global 472,000 149

(*) Exposed population (age 30 and older)

Silva et al. (ERL 2013)

13

Global Burden: PM2.5-related mortality

CPD+LC mortality , deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1, multi-model mean in each grid cell , 6 models

Global and regional mortality per year

Regions Total deaths

Deaths per

million people (*)

North America 43,000 152

Europe 154,000 448Former Soviet Union

128,000 793

Middle East 88,700 371

India 397,000 715

East Asia 1,049,000 1,191

Southeast Asia 158,000 564

South America 16,800 92

Africa 77,500 327

Australia 1,250 78

Global 2,110,000 665

1

(*) Exposed population (age 30 and older)

Silva et al. (ERL 2013)

Global burden of disease of air pollution (2013)

Forouanzafar et al., 2015

5.5 million deaths per year(95% CI: 5.1 – 5.9 million)

Global Deaths per Year

Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 2.9 (2.7 – 3.1) million

Household air pollution from solid fuels: 2.9 (2.5 – 3.3) million

Ambient ozone pollution: 0.22 (0.16 – 0.27) million

~10% of all deaths globally!

GBD: Global Deaths per Year (2013)

Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 2.9 (2.7 – 3.1) million-> 7th most important risk factor for deaths, 5th in East Asia.

Household air pollution from solid fuels: 2.9 (2.5 – 3.3) million-> 8th most important risk factor for deaths, 2nd in South Asia.

Ambient ozone pollution: 0.22 (0.16 – 0.27) million

GBD: US Deaths per Year (2013)

Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 79,000 (70,000 – 89,000)

Household air pollution from solid fuels: 0

Ambient ozone pollution: 12,000 (4,000 – 21,000)

Other US estimates

Ambient PM2.5 pollution: 66,000 (39,000 – 85,000) (Punger & West, 2013)130,000 (Fann et al., 2012)

Ambient ozone pollution: 21,000 (6,000 – 34,000) (Punger & West, 2013)4,700 (Fann et al., 2012)

~3% of all US deaths!

17

Ozone-related mortality (sectors zeroed-out)

Contributions of each sector to total ozone respiratory mortality, fraction of total burden in each cell

Land Transportation

Energy Industry

Residential & Commercial

Silva et al. (EHP, submitted)

Global total: 45,600 deaths/yearGlobal total: 65,200 deaths/year

Global total: 80,900 deaths/year Global total: 53,700 deaths/year

18

PM2.5-related mortality (sectors zeroed-out)

Contributions of each sector to total PM2.5 mortality (IHD+Stroke+COPD+LC), fraction of total burden in each cell

Land Transportation

Energy Industry

Residential & Commercial

Global total: 290,000 deaths/year Global total: 323,000 deaths/year

Global total: 212,000 deaths/year Global total: 675,000 deaths/year

Silva et al. (EHP, submitted)

19

Future ozone-related mortality - ACCMIP

Global Respiratory Premature Ozone Mortality: 2030, 2050 and 2100 vs. 2000 conc.- Uncertainty for the ensemble mean is a 95% CI including uncertainty in RR and across models. -

Silva et al. (ACPD, 2016)

20

Future PM2.5-related mortality - ACCMIP

Global CPD+LC Premature PM2.5 Mortality: 2030, 2050 and 2100 vs. 2000 conc.-Uncertainty for the ensemble mean is a 95% CI including uncertainty in the RR and across models. –

Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)

21

Future PM2.5-related mortality - ACCMIP

RCP2.6 6 models RCP8.5 6 models

deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1-1000 -100 -10 -1 -0.1 -0.01 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

IHD+Stroke+COPD+LC Premature PM2.5 Mortality –2100 (two scenarios)

IHD+Stroke+ COPD+LC Premature PM2.5 Mortality

Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)

22

Concentrations Population Baseline MR2000 minus 1850 Present-day Present-day2000 minus 1850 Future FutureFuture minus 1850 Future Future

Global air pollution burden on mortality

Ozone PM2.5Respiratory mortality (million deaths/year)

IHD+Stroke+COPD+LC mortality (million deaths/year)

RCPs

Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)

Climate Change – What’s certain

1) Greenhouse gases cause warming by absorbing infrared radiation.

John Tyndall (1820-1893) –

Conducted lab experiments in 1860s and discovered that CO2, CH4, H2O are greenhouse gases, but N2, O2, Ar are not.

Climate Change – What’s certain2) Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing, caused by human emissions.

3) Global temperatures are increasing

Climate Change - What’s certain

NASA GISS

IPCC, 2013

Climate Change Attribution:High Confidence

“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed

warming since the mid-20th century.”

IPCC, 2013

Climate Change – Uncertain Future

Year 2100 under no climate policy: 4 (3-5.5) °C = 7 (5-10) °F.

Paris climate agreement: historical backdrop

• 1992 – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change

• 1997 – Kyoto Protocol• 2001 – US pulls out of the Kyoto Protocol• 2010 – Copenhagen pledges• Summer 2015 – US & China announce pledges• 2015 – Paris Accords

Paris Accords (Dec. 2015)

• Not legally binding.• Ambitious targets to reduce emissions by

2030 by most nations globally.• Plan to meet every 5 years to renew pledges.• Aspirational goal of limiting temperature

change to 1.5°C – implies ZERO emissions by roughly 2070.

** Paris requires countries to follow through on their commitments. In US, that is the Clean Power Plan.

Consequences of Paris agreement

Fawcett et al., 2015

Impact of RCP8.5 Climate Change on Global Air Pollution Mortality: ACCMIP Models

Mean (95% CI)(thousands deaths . yr-1)

203011 (-30, 86)

2100127 (-193, 1,070)

Million deaths yr-1OZONE

Million deaths yr-1

PM2.5

Mean (95% CI)(thousand deaths . yr-1)

203056 (-34 , 164)

2100215 (-76 , 595)

Silva et al., in prep.

Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation for Air Quality

Sources & Policies

Air pollutants

GHGs

Air pollution

ClimateChange

Objective: Analyze global co-benefits for air quality and human health to 2100 via both mechanisms.

1) Immediate and Local

2) Long-Term and Global

HumanHealth

Approach

• Use the GCAM reference for emissions rather than RCP8.5, for consistency with RCP4.5.

• Simulations conducted in MOZART-4. - 2° x 2.5° horizontal resolution. - 5 meteorology years for each case.- Fixed methane concentrations.- Compares well with ACCMIP RCP4.5.

Years EmissionsGCAM

MeteorologyGFDL AM3

Name

2000 2000 2000 2000

2030, 2050,2100

GCAMReference

RCP8.5 REF

RCP4.5 RCP4.5 RCP4.5

GCAMReference

RCP4.5 eREFm45

Co-benefits – PM2.5 Concentration

Global population-weighted, annual average PM2.5

West et al. NCC 2013

Co-benefits – Global Premature Mortality

PM2.5 co-benefits (CPD + lung cancer mortality)

2030: 0.4±0.2 million yr-1

2050: 1.1±0.52100: 1.5±0.6

Ozone co-benefits (respiratory mortality)

2030: 0.09±0.062050: 0.2±0.12100: 0.7±0.5

Projection of global population and baseline mortality rates from International Futures.

West et al. NCC 2013

Co-benefits – Valuation of Avoided Mortality

Red: High valuation (2030 global mean $3.6 million)Blue: Low valuation (2030 global mean $1.2 million)Green: Median and range of global C price (13 models)

West et al. NCC 2013

Downscaling Co-benefits to USA (2050)

Zhang et al. ACPD, 2016

PM2.5 (annual avg.) US mean = 0.47 µg/m3

Ozone (May-Oct MDA8) US mean = 3.55 ppbv

RCP4.5 - REF

(b)(a)

Downscaling Co-benefits to USA (2050)

Zhang et al. ACPD, 2016

Dom

estic

Ozone

Most PM2.5 co-benefits from

domesticreductions.

Most ozone co-benefits

from foreignand methane

reductions.

PM2.5

0.35 µg/m3

0.12 µg/m3

Fore

ign

0.86 ppb

2.69 ppb

Domestic vs. Foreign Co-benefits: PM2.5

Zhang et al. in prep

Domestic (20800 deaths/yr) Foreign (4600 deaths/yr)

Ø Domestic GHG mitigation accounts for 85% of the total avoided PM2.5 mortality.

Domestic vs. Foreign Co-benefits: O3

Zhang et al. in prep

Domestic (4600 deaths/yr) Foreign (7600 deaths/yr)

Ø Foreign countries’ GHG mitigation accounts for 62% of the total avoided deaths of O3.

US Co-benefits in 2050• Avoided premature deaths from GHG mitigation: 24500 (CI:

17800-31100) from PM2.5, and 12200 (CI: 5400-18900) from O3.

• Avoided heat stress mortality from RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5:2340 (CI: 1370-3320) (Ying Li).

• Monetized co-benefits in 2050 are $74 (46-101) per ton CO2reduced at low VSL, $220 (140-304) at high VSL.

• Foreign GHG mitigation accounts for 62% of the total avoideddeaths from O3, and 15% for PM2.5.

• Previous regional or national co-benefits studies mayunderestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

• U.S. can gain significantly greater co-benefits, especially forozone, by collaborating with other countries to combat climatechange.

Zhang et al. in preparation

Thank you

Contributions from:Students/Postdocs: Raquel Silva, Yuqiang Zhang, Yasuyuki Akita,

Zac Adelman, Meridith Fry, Susan Anenberg, CiaoKai Liang Collaborators: Steve Smith, Vaishali Naik, Larry Horowitz, Drew

Shindell Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jared Bowden, Arlene Fiore, ACCMIP modelers, HTAP modelers

Funding Sources:• EPA STAR Grant #834285• NIEHS Grant #1 R21 ES022600-01 • EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards• Portugal Foundation for Science and Technology Fellowship • EPA STAR Fellowship• UNC Dissertation Completion Fellowship• US Department of Energy, Office of Science• NOAA GFDL for computing resources

834285

UNC Climate Health and Air Quality Labwww.unc.edu/~jjwest

Projecting Baseline Health

2010 from WHO GBDFuture from International Futures

(mortality rates are at country level)

12-km CMAQ

Global model 2.8º resolution

Bias in US Deaths from PM2.5

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

0 100 200 300 400

Deat

hs/Y

ear

Grid Resolution (km)

CMAQ Model Output(12km-grid)

Punger and West (AQAH, 2013)

30~40% lower than 12km grid estimate

46

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 100 200 300 400 500

PWC

(µg/

m3 )

Grid Resolution (km)

CMAQ

Satellite

Akita et al. in prep.

US Bias is different for Satellite PM2.5!

48

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2030 2050 2100

CO2 concentration (ppmv)

100

400

700

1000

2000 2030 2050 2100

CH4 emissions (TgCH4.yr-1)

40

80

120

160

2000 2030 2050 2100

NOx emissions (TgNO2.yr-1)

10

50

90

130

2000 2030 2050 2100

Sulfur emissions (TgSO2.yr-1)

Source: RCP Database - http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=compare

49

Respiratory premature ozone mortality - 2030, 2050, 2100 vs. 2000

deaths yr-1 (1000 km2)-1

-1000 -100 -10 -1 -0.1 -0.01 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

RCP2.6 11 models RCP8.5 13 models

Future ozone-related mortality (II)

Respiratory premature ozone mortality - 2100 (two scenarios)

Silva et al. (ACPD 2016)

Our co-benefits approach: advantages

• First co-benefits study to use a global atmospheric model.– Capture effects of long-range transport and methane.

• First to estimate co-benefits by two mechanisms.• Use consistent future scenarios built on RCP4.5:

emissions, population, economics (valuation).• By embedding the US study within a prior global study,

we capture US co-benefits from foreign reductions.

Results – PM2.5 Concentration

2050

2100

Annual average PM2.5Total changeRCP4.5 - REF

MeteorologyeREFm45 - REF

EmissionsRCP4.5 – eREFm45

West et al. NCC 2013

Results – Ozone Concentration

Global population-weighted, max. 6 month average of 1 hr. daily max ozone West et al. NCC 2013

Results – Ozone Concentration

2050

2100

Max. 6 month average of 1 hr. daily max ozone

Total co-benefit #2 Meteorology #1 Emissions

MeteorologyeREFm45 - REF

Total changeRCP4.5 - REF

EmissionsRCP4.5 - eREFm45

West et al. NCC 2013

Results – Global Premature Mortality

West et al. NCC 2013

Co-benefits: conclusions

• Global abatement of GHG emissions brings substantial air quality and human health co-benefits.

• Global GHG mitigation (RCP4.5 relative to REF) causes 0.5±0.2 million avoided deaths in 2030, 1.3±0.5 in 2050, and 2.2±0.8 in 2100

• Global average monetized co-benefits are $50-380 / ton CO2

– Greater than previous estimates

– Greater than abatement costs in 2030 and 2050.

• The direct co-benefits from air pollutant emission reductions exceed those via slowing climate change.

West et al. NCC 2013