Conflict Assessments & Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management Matthew Waterfield University of Leicester 13 March 2014

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Conflict Assessments & Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Matthew WaterfieldUniversity of Leicester

13 March 2014

Contents• Approaches to conflict analysis

• Adaptive conflict programme management

• Resources

Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Traditional Approaches to Conflict Assessments

Causes Consequences

Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

• Linear• Tackle root causes• Mitigate spoilers

Prime Minister’s Office – Countries at Risk of Instability

Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

External:• GoS support for LRA• Border split• Acholiland • Ugandan & international

support to SPLA

Internal:• Politically disenfranchised• Lack of national identity• Conflict dynamic

State Capacity:• Multi-ethnic military• Strong economy• Local govt. reach

increased in North

Constraints on State Power:

• Limited military options• Poor political

representation in North

Civil Society:• Emergent Acholi

civil society

Social Contract:• Weak between

North and state

• UPDF (status quo)• GoU (Political will for peace

or military solution)• Acholi (Desire for peace)• Business interests (Divergent

interests)• LRA (Divergent interests and

apparent spit into factions)

Structural Causes of Conflict Stakeholder Means & MotivationLocal Capacity & Resilience

Triggers • Breakdown in peace talks / implementation• Ugandan Presidential election 2011• South Sudan Referendum 2011• Large ‘land grab’ by GoU

Feedback: Violent Conflict & Political Instability

Joint Analysis of Conflict and Stability (JACS)Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

PHASE 1 – Inception and Initiation: Developing a shared approach

What is already known?Review existing analysisIdentify gaps and baselinesDefine type and character of conflict

Establish the objectives and

scope of the analysis

Why is analysis needed?Characterising conflict and instabilityUK Objectives and interests?

PHASE 2 – Analysis

Structural and underlying factors

Actors

Conflict dynamics, the nature of violence & triggers

Institutional & organisational resilience factors

Key Judgements

Overview: Joint Analysis of Conflict and Stability

PHASE 3 – Utilisation

UK actions and priorities

HMG programmes and intervention priorities

Monitoring indicators of +/- changes Updating analysis

Theories of Change: What needs to change, and what is being done?

Challenge function –internal and/or external

Contents• Approaches to conflict analysis

• Adaptive conflict programme management

• Resources

Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Resilient PeaceConducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Resilient PeaceConducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Resilient PeaceConducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Contents• Approaches to conflict analysis

• Adaptive conflict programme management

• Resources and discussion

Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management

Resources and discussion

Matt hew Waterfield Director Aktis Strategy Ltd T: +44 (0) 207 873 2428 M: +44 (0) 7824 392 733 Skype: matthewwaterfield www.aktisstrategy.com

1. PCNA: www.undg.org/content/post-crisis_transition/post-conflict_needs_assessments_(pcna)

2. Conflict Sensitivity: www.conflictsensitivity.org 3. Updates on conflict analysis: www.conflictanalysis.org 4. World Bank conflict analysis:

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTSOCIALDEVELOPMENT/EXTCPR/0,,contentMDK:20486708~menuPK:1260893~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:407740,00.html

Conducting Conflict Assessments and Application in Adaptive Conflict Programme Management