Climate change adaptation initiatives in Kerala (India ... · Climate change adaptation initiatives in Kerala (India) under the humid tropics G. S. L. H. V. Prasada Rao ... Floods

Climate change adaptation initiatives in Kerala (India) under the humid tropics

G. S. L. H. V. Prasada Rao Associate Director of Research

Centre for Climate Change ResearchKerala Agricultural University

Thrissur- 680656kauagmet@yahoo.co.in

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

Background

Climate Change Impacts

Climate Change Adaptation

Awareness

Integrated Agromet Advisory Services based on weather forewarning

Human Resources Development

Future directions

Temperature increase by 2100 AD will be around 3°C

Wheat and rice production are likely to decline

The adverse impact of drought is more significant on food grainswhen compared to that of floods

Area under agriculture is declining

Crop productivity is stagnated sincelast one decade

Attributed to frequent occurrences of weather extremes

Climate change/variability impacts onAgriculture in India

50

75100

125

150

175200225

250

1950

-51

54-5

5

58-5

9

62-6

3

66-6

7

70-7

1

74-7

5

78-7

9

82-8

3

86-8

7

90-9

1

94-9

5

98-9

9

2002

-03

2006

-07

Year

Food

grai

ns p

rodu

ctio

n(m

illio

n to

nnes

)

Droughts(1965-66-67)

Drought(1979-80)

Droughts(1972-73-74-75)

Drought(1987-88)

Drought(2002-03)

Drought 2004-05

Impact of droughts on Indian food grains production from 1950-51 to 2008-’09

National action plan on climate change in India

Eight missions, for sustainable development.1. Solar energy2. Enhanced energy efficiency3. Sustainable habitat4. Conserving water5. Sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem6. Creating a “Green India”7. Sustainable agriculture, and 8. Establishing a strategic knowledge platform for

climate change

The Green India mission will enhance ecosystem services including carbon sinks to be called Green India

Sustainable agriculture mission intends making agriculture more resilient to climate change by identifying and developing new varieties of crops.

Price rise – Food crisis – Food security

Kerala is popularly known as “Gateway of monsoon”

Latitude: 8°15’N to 12°50’NLongitude: 74°50’E to 77°30’EMSL: Below MSL to 1500mRivers: 44, 41flows from east to west Forest cover: 24%Average annual rainfall: 3000 mmMean annual temp. : 20-27°C

Thrissur CentreThrissur Centre

Overview of biophysical resources over Kerala

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Monthly normal rainfall over Kerala (1871Monthly normal rainfall over Kerala (1871--2008)2008)

Altitudinal sequence of crops in Kerala

Decline in forest area

Forest fires

Declining in wetlands

Indiscriminate sand mining

Indiscriminate land filling

Groundwater depletion

Floods and droughts

Landslides

Rainfall decline

Temperature rise

Rice, cashew, cocoa, coffee, tea, cardamom and black pepper are under threat

Climate related issues over Kerala and impacts on crops

0.040.04Tea

51.3155.24Index in Food grains

105.24103.69Index in Non –food grains

0.080.08Coffee

0.040.04Cardamom

0.900.90Coconut

0.240.22Black pepper

0.490.48Rubber

0.080.09Cashew

0.280.29Rice

2005-062003-04

Area in million haCrops

Shift in major crops over Kerala

(1870-2009)

8-Jun

10-May

15-May

20-May

25-May

30-May

4-Jun

9-Jun

14-Jun

19-Jun

1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Year

Dat

e of

ons

etOnset of Indian summer monsoon from 1870 to 2009

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

Normal: 2833 mm

Annual rainfall (mm) over Kerala from 1871 to 2008

88.283.6

69.0

53.7

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

1901-30 1931-60 1961-90 1991-2008

Im (%

)

B1

B2

B3

B4

Decadal shifts in climate over Kerala

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Se

p

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

2003-04 1982-83

Early drought-2003-04

Late drought-1982-83

Water deficit from September to May over Kerala during 1982-83 and 2003-04

mm

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

1/2/2004 9/2/2004 17/02/04 25/02/04 4/3/2004 12/3/2004 20/03/04 28/03/04

Max

. tem

p(°C

)

Mean maximum temperature

2004

March of maximum temperature (°C) at Vellanikkara duringFebruary and March 2004

Climate projections at selected stations over Kerala

Warming with decline in rainfall

Ambalavayal (coffee, tea and

black pepper)

Warm days with cool nights and increase in rainfall except during southwest monsoon. Increase in temperature range is also expected.

Pampadumpara(cardamom, tea and black pepper)

Cool days with warm nights (except in summer) and decline in rainfall. Decline in temperature range is also expected.

Vellanikkara

Cooling with decline in rainfall

Pilicode

ProjectionsLocations

1.1. Kasaragod2. Kannur3. Wayanad4. Kozhikode5. Malappuram6. Palakkad7. Thrissur8. Earnakulam9. Idukki10. Kottayam11. Alappuzha12. Pathanamthitta13. Kollam14. Thiruvanathapuram

KERALAKERALA

y = 49.588x + 2379.5

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1949

-50

53-5

4

57-5

8

61-6

2

65-6

6

69-7

0

73-7

4

77-7

8

81-8

2

85-8

6

89-9

0

93-9

4

97-9

8

2001

-02

2005

-06

Prod

uctio

n (m

illio

n nu

ts)

Coconut production over Kerala from 1949-50 to 2007-2008

Source:CPCRI,ICAR,Kasaragod

Impact of climate change on coconut over India

Awareness

Deforestation reduction

Conservation and protection of Wetlands

Judicious use of natural resources

Demarcation of landslide zonation

Integrated Agromet Advisory Service based on Weather Forewarning

Protected cultivation (Olericulture and floriculture)

Biotic and abiotic stress tolerant varieties (Biotechnology tools)

The green economy and development

Human resources development

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation(Action Plan)

Integrated Agromet Advisory Service – A Multi – institutional programme

India Meteorological Department (IMD)Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)Kerala State Planning BoardCochin University of Science and TechnologyDepartment of AgricultureKerala Agricultural University (Nodal Agency)

Integrated Agromet Advisory Service

Weather forewarning Dissemination

Short RangeMedium Range

Long Range

Seasonal/Climate forecast

Agroclimatic Analysis

Direct delivery

Print media

e media

Village Resource Centers

(Space tools)

Climate variability/ change – projections

Crop growth stimulation models

Future crop projections

SPACE & GIS Tools

Awareness programmes on climate change adaptation

Mathrubhoomi dated 21.3.2008

Mathrubhoomi dated 22.3.2008

New Indian Express dated 21.3.2008

New Indian Express dated 21.3.2008

Future Directions

Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.

Future Directions

Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.

Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.

Future Directions

Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.

Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.

Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).

Future Directions

Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.

Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.

Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).

Screen crop varieties and species for potential adaptation to climate change.

Future Directions

Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.

Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.

Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).

Screen crop varieties and species for potential adaptation to climate change.

Use of Biotechnology tools in breeding programs to develop improved cultivars adapted to climate change.

Future Directions

Delineating the climatic risk zones based on historical weatherdata, land capability and employing GIS techniques.

Meso-scale weather forewarning at district level using Weather Research Forecast model as a part of weekly agromet advisory services.

Development of climate based farming systems and decision support systems (DSS).

Screen crop varieties and species for potential adaptation to climate change.

Use of Biotechnology tools in breeding programs to develop improved cultivars adapted to climate change.

Strengthening climate studies teaching and research at KAU through international collaboration.

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