Climate Change – The Physical Science … · 2014. 4. 22. · Climate Change – The Physical Science Basis Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. 2 CO
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Climate Change – The Physical Science BasisStefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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CO2 Concentration is Rising
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Radiative Forcing
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NASA announces: 2005 warmest year on record
Increase in global mean surface temperature: ~0.8oC since 1900Similar increase in sea surface temperatures
Global land temperature (NASA GISS)
Observed Warming
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IPCC
NASA GISS
Hadley Centre1998 2005
Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (Science 2007)
Observed Warming
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Red range: Models Black curve: ObservationsBlue range: Models with only natural forcings
Warming on Continental Scale
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Projected Future Warming
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Regional Warming Patterns
ºC
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Precipitation Changes
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Tropical Cyclones
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Observed data:Hurricane energy closely linked to SST, and increasing (Emanuel, Nature 2005)
Hurricane Power (PDI)
Sea Surface Temperature (August-October)
Global Mean Temperature
Atlantic
Tropical Cyclones
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9 cm
88 cm
21 cm
70 cm
Tide Gauges
IPCC Sea Level Projections
IPCC 2007: 18 - 59 cm“these ranges do not include uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks or ice flow processes”
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Sea Level Rise
Tide Gauges
IPCC
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Sea Level Rise
Tide Gauges
Satellite Altim
eter
IPCC
IPCC 2007: for 1961–2003:Models 1.2 mm/yearData 1.8 mm/year
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Ice sheet response time “is of the order of centuries, not millennia”.Hansen (2005)
Volume: 2.8x1015 m3 = 7 meters of sea level
Long-term Sea Level: Ice Sheets
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