China Mobile Phone Market Dashboard Dec/09
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CHINA MOBILE PHONE MARKET MONTHLY
RETAIL AUDIT UPDATE
Dec/09
Room1102, Building C, Ocean International Center, No. 60 East 4th Ring Road, Chaoyang District , 100026Beijing, P.R China0086-10-5908-1099
joe@thinkbankchina.com
Table of Contents
Size Share Product Price Subscriber
Key Indicators in Dec/09Market Size | Subscribers | AV. Selling Price | Products | 3G
176Million
2009 YTD M-size (Altogether 5M 3G subscribers, added 1.2M in Dec/09)726Million
56Dec/09 M-size
Subscribers
Mobile Phone Penetration
Million
16.8Million 11
Models
56pct
Dec/09 M-size
Dec/09 ASP
141USD
# of new 3G Products
Subscriber by CarrierAs the end of Dec/09, China registered 726 million mobile phone subscribes with monthly new additions of 8.9 million. Number of total 3G subscribers reached 11 million.
Total: 148 million (20.4%)
726 millionmobile phone subscribers as the end of Dec/09, representing mobile phone penetration rate of 56%.
Total: 56 million (7.7%)
• 2G: 51.2Total: 148 million (20.4%)
• 2G: 144.8
• 3G: 2.7
New additions: 1.6
10.9 millionof 3G subscribers, i.e. 1.5% of China total mobile subscribers.
Total: 522 million (71.9%)
• 2G: 518.6
• 3G: 3.4
New additions: 4.2
• 2G: 51.2
• 3G: 4.8
New additions: 3.1
Data source: operator websites, January, 2010
Market Size Summary / YTD175.6 million sold, representing +31% Y/Y growth through the entire 2009.
2009 Year to Date Market Size
YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology
175.6Million units
+31% Year-on-year
China Mobile Phone Market Summary
• China mobile phone market size reached 175.6 million (CTA market) in 2009, representing y/y growth of 31% in spite of the economic downturn particularly the 2nd
half of 2009.
• Altogether 3.7 million of 3G mobile phones sold in 2009, accounting for only 2% of total CTA market size.YTD Market Size Breakdown by Technology
YTD Market Size Breakdown by Market Type
2G Device Market (Million) 3G Device Market (Million)
GSM 21.2 TD-SCDMA 1.9
GPRS/EDGE 122.4 WCDMA 1.1
CDMA1X 28.3 EVDO 0.7
Market Type Sales (M) Percentage
Phones with CTA* 175.6 73%
White brands market 42.2 17%
Grey market** 22.9 10%
*CTA: Certification of Type Approval by Ministry of Industry & Information Technology**Grey market: mainly smuggling phones from overseas.
• CDMA market witnessed recorded high with 29 million units sale out in 2009, but still under China Telecom’s expectation of the beginning of the year. [China Telecom aims at 50M phone sales and 30M new user addition in 2010.]
• Combined sales volume of white brands reached 42 million units, standing for 17% of China TOTAL market, plus another 10% grey market, namely 22.9 million units in full year of 2009.
Market Size Development+14.7% M/M growth due to new year promotions in December. In addition, 9.1% of Y/Y growth is probably indicating a full recovery from economic downturn starting from June 2009.
17.0
14.215.1 14.7
15.716.8
15.6 15.1 15.414.715.3
1414.8 14.9
16.314.4
13.815
20In million units
China Total Mobile Phone Market Size Development (2G + 3G)
2009
15.6
13.114.2
13.5
15.1 15.414.715.3
13.713.213.2
12.1
5
10
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Dec/09 size M/M growth % Y/Y growth% Dec/09 3G Sales 3G M/M growth % ASP (US$)
16.8 M +14.7 +9.1 1.2 M +34.6 141
2008
Brand Market Shares / Dec/09The fragmented 2G device market is ruled by Nokia with 28.4% m-share in Dec/09, while 3G device market is dominated by Samsung with 34.1%, followed by China Local vendor Coolpad with 23.5%.
28.4%
2G Market(GSM/GPRS/EDGE/CDMA1X)
16.8 million units in Dec/09
3G Market(TD/WCDMA/EVDO)
1.2 million units in Dec/09
28.4%
15.2%
5.2%5.1%
4.2%
4.0%
2.6%
28.5%
4.5%
2.3%
Nokia
Samsung
Huawei
ZTE
Tianyu
LG
Lenovo
Motorola
OPPO
Others
23.5%10.0%
6.9%
6.5%
19.0%
34.1%Samsung
Coolpad
ZTE
SonyE
LG
Others
Brand Market Share Development-1In CTA market, combined m-share of int’l vendors increased by 0.4 percent in Dec/09.
62.3%61.9%62.2%59.7%64.5%65.0%64.2%63.7%62.3%63.5%64.8%65.9%
70%
80%
90%
100% Int'l Vendors Local Vendors
Brand Market Shave Development: Int’l Vendors VS. Local Vendors
37.7%38.1%37.8%40.3%35.5%35.0%35.8%36.3%37.7%36.5%35.3%34.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Brand Market Share Development-2Nokia still is leading China Market with 26.5% m-share after two month’s sequentially decline since Nov-09. Meanwhile, Samsung did not benefit form Nokia setback.
29.6%31.5%
29.8%30.4%31.1%31.4%31.3%28.5%28.1%28.5%
32.3%
40%
50%
Brand Market Shave Development (2G + 3G) / Top2 Brands
Nokia
26.5%29.6%29.8%28.5%28.1%28.5%
16.5%16.7%16.3%16.4%16.1%16.6%17.8%17.8%18.0%18.7%17.4%18.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Samsung
Brand Market Share Development-3Tianyu experienced a decline 2009 and closed the year with 4.4% m-share. ZTE & Huawei gained continuous m-share growth due to sales surge in <400RMB price tier in CDMA market.
Brand Market Shave Development (2G + 3G) / Top 3-5 Brands
5.1%
5.8%6.2% 6.2% 6.2%
5.5%5.3%
4.9% 5.0% 4.9%4.4% 4.4%
6%
8%Tianyu
Huawei
ZTE
1.8%
3.5%4.0% 4.1%
2.8% 2.9% 3.1%3.3%
4.2%
2.8%
3.6%3.8%
4.4% 4.4%
0%
2%
4%
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Price Band Development67% of mobile phones are sold under 1,000RMB in Dec/09.
20.0%18.0%
17.1% 15.8% 15.7%15.4%
16.7% 16.2% 16.5%15.8% 15.0% 13.4%
14.6% 13.2% 12.2% 12.7% 13.2% 12.4%13.0% 12.9% 12.0%
13.3% 12.8%13.5%
6.4% 5.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.9% 5.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.8%6.3% 7.0% 7.7%
3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% 3.5% 3.3% 4.5% 4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.3% 4.8%
2.6% 3.4% 3.1% 3.9% 4.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.5% 4.4% 5.7% 5.8% 5.8%>=3000
2500-2999
2000-2499
Price Tier Percentage Development (2G + 3G)
30.1% 32.7% 35.1% 34.0% 32.7% 32.8% 30.3% 29.3% 32.1% 29.1% 33.3% 33.1%
20.1%21.7%
22.2% 23.2% 22.5% 25.1%24.0% 25.3% 23.9%
23.4%21.1% 20.1%
20.0%18.0% 15.7% 16.7% 16.2%
15.8% 15.0% 13.4%
Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
1500-1999
1000-1499
700-999
400-699
<400
Product Category10.6% total sale out is smart phone in the whole year of 2009.
Product Category Year-To-Date (M) This Month (M)
Smart phone 18.5 10.6% 2.0 12.1%
Feature phone 136.5 77.7% 13.4 79.9%
Mobile Phone Sale-out by Product Category in million units
Ultra low end 20.6 11.7% 1.3 8.0%
Total 175.6 100% 16.8 100%
Definition of Product Category
• Smart Phone: phones with open operating systems, including iPhone OS, Symbian, Windows Mobile, Android, RIM OS, etc.
• Feature Phone: phones with various of multimedia functions, such as audio/video playback,
• Ultra low end phone: phones with only telephony and SMS functions.
YTD Top 10 BrandsNokia is the biggest loser during the past three months, m-share decreased by -3.4 points in the period.
BrandYTD Sales (M)
YTD MSDec/09MS
3-monthsGrowth %
Dec/09 ASP(USD)
Dec/09 Price tier structure
Nokia 52.48 29.9% 26.5% ê-3.4 172
Samsung 30.25 17.2% 16.5% é+0.1 180
Tianyu 9.18 5.2% 4.4% ê-0.5 92 34%
30%
32%
30%
6%
20%
22%
12%
8%
14%
23%
11%
0%
5%
13%
1%
11%
5%
0%
7%
10%
Lenovo 6.37 3.6% 3.7% ê-0.3 119
Huawei 6.02 3.4% 5.1% é0.9 48
Motorola 5.76 3.3% 2.5% ê-0.3 164
LG 5.60 3.2% 4.4% é+0.6 106
ZTE 5.25 3.0% 5.4% é+2.5 58
SonyEri. 3.43 2.0% 2.0% é+0.4 234
Gionee 3.33 1.9% 1.5% ê-0.1 119 8%
5%
84%
53%
19%
89%
13%
27%
6%
2%
4%
20%
1%
31%
47%
9%
1%
13%
6%
7%
28%
15%
21%
5%
11%
27%
2%
20%
2%
42%
3%
11%
17%
1%
7%
0%
6%
0%
2%
6%
0%
0%
0%
8%
4%
5%
1%
0%
0%
3G Market Comparison / Dec/09TD-SCDMA operated by China Mobile seems leading China’s 3G market with bigger devices sales volume, cheaper devices and larger device vendor base as the end of 2009.
TD-SCDMARun by China Mobile
CDMA1x EV-DORun by China Telecom
W-CDMARun by China Unicom
Market Size (K)
ASP (USD)
707 227 233 1,167
224 421 340 286
CHINA Total
ASP (USD)
New Products
Accu. Users(M)
224 421 340 286
4 7 0 11
22 17 14 29
3.4 4.8 2.7 10.9
YTD # of Device Vendors
China Mobile Phone Market Dashboard
17.0
14.215.1 14.7
15.7
12.113.2 13.2 13.7
15.314.7
16.8
Market Size by Technology (M)Technology Size Percentage
GSM 12.1 72.0%
CDMA1X 3.5 20.8%
TD-SCDMA 0.7 4.2%
EVDO 0.2 1.5%
WCDMA 0.2 1.5%
Total 16.8 100%China Mobile Phone Monthly Market Size Development (M)
Market Size by Market Type (M)
Technology Size Percentage
CTA Market 16.8 73.4%
White Brand 3.8 16.6%
Grey Market 2.3 10.0%
Top5 Brands Market Share Development
Market Size by Price Tier (RMB)
Brand Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
Nokia 32.3% 28.5% 28.1% 28.5% 31.3% 31.3% 31.1% 30.4% 29.8% 31.5% 29.6% 26.5%
Samsung 18.2% 17.4% 18.7% 18.0% 17.8% 17.8% 16.6% 16.1% 16.4% 16.3% 16.7% 16.5%
Tianyu 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 3.8% 4.4% 4.4%
Motorola 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7%
LG 1.8% 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 4.2% 2.8% 3.6% 5.1%
Key Market Indicators (M)Technology This Month Y-T-D
2G M-size 15.6 171.9
3G-M-size 1.2 3.7
Int’l Vendors 8.9 99.5
Local Vendors 76.1 7.9
ASP (USD) 141 124
Net User Addition 8.8 106.1
3G Users 1.5 10.9
New 3G Devices 11 140
CHN Total Users NA 726
Penetration % NA 54.3
Year2009
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mobile Subscriber by Operator(M)Operator Users Percentage
China Mobile 522 71.9
China Unicom 148 20.4
China Telecom 56 7.7
Market Size by Category (M)Product Cate. Size Percentage
Smart Phone 2.0 12.1%
Feature Phone 13.4 79.9%
Ultra Low End 1.3 8.0%
Indicator Total Market 2G Market 3G Market Nokia Samsung ZTE Huawei Tianyu LG Lenovo Coolpad Motorola OPPO
Dec/09 Sales (M) 16.8 15.6 1.2 4.4 2.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4
YTD Sales (M) 175.6 171.9 3.7 52.5 30.2 5.2 6.0 9.2 5.6 6.4 2.0 5.8 2.5
Dec/09 Share NA NA NA 26.5% 16.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.4% 4.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2%
Dec/09 ASP (US$) 141 130 286 172 180 58 48 92 106 119 218 164 188
Market Size by Price Tier (RMB)Technology This Month Y-T-D
>3,000 5.8% 4.3%
2500-2999 1.5% 2.0%
2000-2499 4.8% 3.8%
1500-1999 7.7% 5.9%
1000-1499 13.5% 13.0%
700-999 13.4% 16.3%
400-699 20.1% 22.6%
<400 33.1% 32.1%
Total 100% 100%
Year-to-Date Market Size (M) Dec/09 Market Size (M)
175.6, +31% MoM 16.8, +9.1% YoY
Year2008
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joe@thinkbankchina.com
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