Transcript
China Market TrendsJuly 23th 2010 T k
China Market TrendsJuly 23th 2010 T kJuly. 23th, 2010, TokyoJuly. 23th, 2010, Tokyo
Jason DongCountry Manager
ARC Advisory Groupy pjdong@arcweb.com
Outline - ChinaOutline - China
China’s Economy A t ti E dit i Chi Automation Expenditures in China Some Key Industries Analysis
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Economic Crisis Vs China EconomicsEconomic Crisis Vs China Economics
China’s economy recovered strongly from global economy crisisglobal economy crisis• GDP and Manufacturing PMI recovered by V-
shaped curvep• Manufacturing PMI stood over 50% again since
March, 2009
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Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
The Main Drivers of Economy GrowthThe Main Drivers of Economy Growth
Loose monetary policy is the major factor of economy recovery from crisiseconomy recovery from crisis• Real estate, automotive and enterprise asset
investment benefit directly from laxer lending y gstandards
The stimulus package (4 trillion RMB) is a big engine to promote infrastructure investment engine to promote infrastructure investment and related industries
Exports resumed to growth since March 2009 p g
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2010 Economy Trend2010 Economy Trend
Strong Economy Growth was maintained in H1, 20102010• Combination contribution from investment, exports
and Consumption But the signs of slowdown are emerging
• GDP Growth rate dropped to 10.3% from 11.9% in Q2M f t i PMI h d d f th 2 d th• Manufacturing PMI has dropped for the 2nd months
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China GDP Growth RateQ1, 2009‐Q2, 2010 55.8
52 55.1 55.7 53.9 52.150
60
H1, 2010 China Manufacturing PMI%
6.17.1 7.7
10.711.9
10.6
468101214
10
20
30
40
50
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Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 20100
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Jan/10 Feb/10 Mar/10 Apr/10 May/10 Jun/10
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
Outline - ChinaOutline - China
China’s Economy A t ti E dit i Chi Automation Expenditures in China Some Key Industries Analysis
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Automation Expenditures in 2009Automation Expenditures in 2009
Automation Expenditures firstly decline in 2009 T t l k t i t t d d 6% Total market size contracted around 6% However recovery was strong in Q4, about 2
months lagging behind economic recovery months lagging behind economic recovery
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Source: ARC Advisory Group
Automation Expenditures in 2010Automation Expenditures in 2010
Benefited by users’ inventory falling and economy recovery many automation economy recovery, many automation providers achieved sales growth by 25%-50% in H1, 2010
Yet uncertainties and risks are emerging. High market growth might not last the whole year
H2 will be moderately optimistic H2 will be moderately optimistic. We are expecting double-digits growth in
2010
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Process Vs DiscreteProcess Vs Discrete
Government Policies are key drivers in process growth; consumption and exports are process growth; consumption and exports are secondary factors
Discrete benefits more directly from economy y yrecovery
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Source: ARC Advisory Group
Outline - ChinaOutline - China
China’s Economy A t ti E dit i Chi Automation Expenditures in China Some Key Industries Analysis
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Electric PowerElectric Power
Investment in electric power keeps flat in 20102010• 660 billion RMB will be invested in electric power
in 2010 (Estimated by China Electric Council)( y )• Goes fifty-fifty in generation and grid (much
more investment in generation in past) • About 30% growth in power generation in H1,
2010
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Electric PowerElectric Power
Smart grid moves gather momentumTh Fi Y Pl (2011 2015) ill tli th • The Five Year Plan (2011-2015) will outline the detailed plan for setting up smart grids
• Smart Grid should be likely to be set up in the Smart Grid should be likely to be set up in the country by 2020
• China Smart Grid Standard was drafted by State Grid Corporation
• Some key issues will be encompassed in smart grid program such as non fossil fue energy grid program, such as non fossil fue energy, power storage, smart power meter and electric vehicles
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Electric PowerElectric Power
Clean Electric power has bright prospectsN l S l
Windpower, 13,000
Nuclearpower, 1,080
Solarpower, 200
2010 New Generation Capacities
2008 Power Source Segment 2030 Power Source Segment Planned
Thermalpower, 55,000
Hydropower, 15,000
g 2030 Power Source Segment PlannedNatural gas, Solar and Biomass
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Source: China Electric Power Association
AutomotiveAutomotive
The Biggest Auto marketChina became the biggest ehicle ma ket in the o ld• China became the biggest vehicle market in the world
• Vehicle sales topped on 13.64 million units in 2009• In H1 2010, vehicle sales reached 9 million units, and In H1 2010, vehicle sales reached 9 million units, and
targets 16 million units whole year’s sales in 2010 Alternative Energy Vehicle
d ll h f• Drives and Motors will the core components of vehicle, not only for production lines. It is a huge market opportunity for automation providers.
• By the end of 2010, more than 10 domestic carmakers will launch their E-Car.
• China government targets to sell 500 thousands E-car
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• China government targets to sell 500 thousands E-car in 2011. (According China Automotive Industry Development Outline)
Water & Waste WaterWater & Waste Water
Urbanization & Environmental Protection are two major drivers for Water & Waste Watertwo major drivers for Water & Waste Water
In coming decades, Water & Waste Water will In coming decades, Water & Waste Water will keep high speed growth, because China urbanization will last decades
Conventional PLC providers are major solution providers in this areaproviders in this area
Energy saving is getting a more crucial issue
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Energy saving is getting a more crucial issue
Glass & CementGlass & Cement
Recovered to pre-crisis levelO t f t f id ti l l • On account of strong recovery of residential real estate, Glass & Cement market recovered to pre-crisis level in H1 2010
• Many brown field projects aim at energy conservation
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Thank YouThank YouFor more information, contact the author at jdong@arcweb.com or visit our web pages at
www arcweb comwww.arcweb.com
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