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Chapter 10
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
MARKETING RESEARCH AND SALES FORECASTING
1
2© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Objectives
1. Describe the development of the marketing research function and its major activities.
2. Explain the steps in the marketing research process.
3. Distinguish between primary and secondary data, and identify the sources of each type.
4. Explain the different sampling techniques used by marketing researchers.
3© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Objectives
5. Identify the methods by which marketing researchers collect primary data.
6. Explain the challenges of conducting marketing research in global markets.
7. Outline the most important uses of computer technology in marketing research.
8. Identify the major types of forecasting methods.
4© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Introduction
▮ Marketing research - Collecting and using information for marketing decision making
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Development of the Marketing Research Function▮ Advertising pioneer N. W. Ayer conducted the first
organized marketing research project in 1879▮ Charles C. Parlin organized the nation’s first
commercial research department at Curtis Publishing
▮ Research methods grew more sophisticated in the 1930s with better sampling techniques and greater accuracy
▮ Computer technology has significantly advanced market research
6© 2014 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales ForecastingWho Conducts Marketing
Research?▮ Syndicated services - Organization that
provides standardized data on a periodic basis to its subscribers
▮ Full-service research suppliers - Marketing research organization that offers all aspects of the marketing research process
▮ Limited-service research suppliers - Firm that specializes in a limited number of activities, such as conducting field interviews or performing data processing
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Customer Satisfaction Measurement Programs▮ Firms focus on tracking satisfaction levels of
current customers▮ Analyze partial or complete dissatisfaction
to identify problem areas that need attention
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Figure 10.1 - The Marketing Research Process
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Define the Problem
▮ Defining the problem clearly increases the speed and accuracy of the research process
▮ Confusing symptoms of a problem with the problem itself should be avoided
▮ A logical starting point in identifying the problem – to evaluate the firm’s target market and marketing mix elements
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Conduct Exploratory Research
▮ Exploratory research - Process of discussing a marketing problem with informed sources both within and outside the firm and examining information from secondary sources
▮ Using internal data• Sources of internal data are sales records,
financial statements, and marketing cost analyses
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Conduct Exploratory Research
• Sales analysis can compare expected sales with actual sales and be analyzed in a variety of ways, such as by customer type and sales method
• Accounting data provides information about financial issues
• Marketing cost analysis evaluates expenses fora variety of costs
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Formulate a Hypothesis
▮ Hypothesis - A tentative explanation for some specific event
▮ Sets the stage for more in-depth research
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Create a Research Design
▮ Research design - A master plan or model for conducting research
▮ Important considerations• Marketers must be sure the study will measure
what they intend to measure• Selection of respondents
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Collect Data
▮ Primary data - Information collected for a specific investigation
▮ Secondary data - Previously published information• Less expensive• Less time consuming• Can become obsolete• May not be completely relevant
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales ForecastingInterpret and Present Research
Data▮ Present findings in a format that allows
managers to make effective judgments▮ Marketing researchers and research users
must cooperate at every stage in the research process
▮ Reports must be clear and concise
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Secondary Data Collection
▮ Comes from many sources• Internal data - Sales records, product
performance reviews• External data - Government records, syndicated
research services
▮ Government data• Nation’s most important source of marketing
data• Census data provide the most frequently used
government statistics
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Secondary Data Collection
▮ The 2010 U.S. Census - Contains a wealth of valuable information for marketers
▮ Private data - Variety of sources• Trade associations• Business and trade magazines• Electronic systems• Radio-frequency identification technology
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Secondary Data Collection
▮ Online sources of secondary data• Online databases• Research aggregators - Companies that acquire,
catalog, reformat, segment, and resell premium research reports• Examples: Datamonitor, eMarketer
• Social networking sites
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Sampling Techniques
▮ Sampling - Process of selecting survey respondents or research participants
▮ Population (universe) - Total group of people a researcher wants to study
▮ Classification of samples • Probability sample• Nonprobability sample
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Probability Sample
▮ Sample that gives every member of the population a chance of being selected• Simple random sample - Sample in which every
individual in the relevant universe has an equal opportunity to be sampled
• Stratified sample - Sample constructed to represent randomly selected subsamples of different groups within the total sample
• Cluster sample - Researchers select a sample of subgroups (or clusters) from which they draw respondents
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Nonprobability Sample
▮ Sample that involves personal judgment in the selection process• Convenience sample - Sample selected from
among readily available respondents• Quota sample - Sample divided to maintain the
proportion of certain characteristics among different segments or groups seen in the population as a whole
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Figure 10.2 - Types of Primary Research
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Observation Method
▮ Researchers view the overt actions of subjects being studied
▮ Increasingly sophisticated ways for observing behavior are being used
▮ Videotaping consumers is gaining acceptance
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Interpretative Research
▮ A researcher observes a customer or group of customers in their natural setting and interprets their behavior based on an understanding of the social and cultural characteristics of that setting
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮ Telephone interviews• Quick and inexpensive way of getting a small
quantity of relatively impersonal information• Many people refuse to take part or are reluctant
to give personal information over the phone• Not a viable option in international markets
where telephone ownership is rare
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮ Personal interviews• Allows researchers to obtain detailed
information and ask follow-up questions• Researchers can establish rapport with
respondents and explain confusing or vague questions
• Mall intercepts - Interviews conducted inside retail shopping centers
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮ Focus group - A small group of individuals brought together to discuss a specific topic• Valuable for exploratory research• Drawback is the potential lack of honesty due to
peer pressure• Researchers are experimenting with online
focus groups
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮ Mail surveys• Cost-effective and provides anonymity• Lower response rates than for personal
interviews • Time-consuming• May be subject to bias through self-selection• Long follow-up time
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮ Fax surveys• Limited households use fax machine• Securing a representative sample of respondents is a
difficult undertaking
• Federal Junk Fax Prevention Act limits fax transmissions for commercial purposes
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Survey Method
▮ Online surveys and other Internet-based methods• Allow researchers to: • Increase the speed of the survey process• Increase sample sizes• Ignore geographic boundaries• Reduce costs
• No industry wide standards define techniques for measuring Web use
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Experimental Method
▮ Least used method▮ Controlled experiment - Scientific
investigation in which a researcher manipulates a test group and compares the results with those of a control group
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Experimental Method
▮ Test marketing - Introducing a new product in a specific area and then observing its degree of success• Can be expensive • Competitors can learn about new products quickly• Some products are not well suited to
test marketing
▮ Alternatives include• Computer-modeling software• Regional product launches• Limiting a product to a single retail outlet
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Conducting International Marketing Research▮ Follow same basic steps as for domestic
marketing research▮ Researchers must be aware of cultural and
legal environments▮ May have to adapt research methods to local
conditions
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Interpretive Research
▮ Researcher spends time studying the culture
▮ Focus is on understanding the meaning of the product or consumption experience in the consumer’s life
▮ Captures what consumers actually do, not just what they say they do
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Computer Technology in Marketing Research▮ Marketing information systems (MIS)• A planned, computer-based system designed to
provide decision makers with a continuous flow of information relevant to their areas of responsibility
• Continually monitors marketing environment and provides instantaneous information
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Computer Technology in Marketing Research▮ Marketing decision support systems
(MDSSs) • Marketing information system component that
links a decision maker with relevant databases and analysis tools
• Develops raw data useful for decision making
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Data Mining
▮ Process of searching through computerized data files to detect patterns
▮ Focuses on identifying relationships that are not obvious to marketers
▮ Efficient way to sort through huge amounts of data and make sense of it
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Business Intelligence
▮ Process of gathering information and analyzing it to improve business strategy, tactics, and daily operations
▮ Can tell the firm how its own sales operation is doing or what its top competitors are up to
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Competitive Intelligence
▮ A form of business intelligence ▮ Focuses on finding information about
competitors using secondary sources▮ Aim is to uncover the specific advantages a
competitor has
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Sales Forecasting
▮ Estimate of a firm’s revenue for a specified time period• Qualitative forecasting - Use of subjective
techniques to forecast sales• The jury of executive opinion, Delphi technique, sales
force composite, and surveys of buyer intentions
• Quantitative forecasting - Use of statistical forecasting techniques • Test market, trend analysis, and exponential
smoothing
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Table 10.2 - Benefits and Limitations of Various Forecasting Techniques
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
Strategic Implications of Marketing in the 21st Century▮ Marketing research can help an
organization develop effective marketing strategies
▮ Marketing research ideally matches new products to potential customers
▮ Marketing researchers have a broad range of techniques to collect quantitative and qualitative data
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Chapter 10 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting
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