Centre report of KMA 29 th WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 2014
Post on 15-Jan-2016
24 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Transcript
CentreCentre report of KMAreport of KMA2929thth WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 20142014
CentreCentre report of KMAreport of KMA2929thth WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. WGNE meeting Melbourne 10-13 MAR. 20142014
Hoon ParkNumerical Model Management Office KMA
2
Outlines
• Current status & update strategy of KMA NWP system
• Upgrade NWP system in 2014 and upcoming plans
• Research activities in NWP at KMA
Status & upgrade strategyStatus & upgrade strategy
4
KMA’s 3KMA’s 3ndnd Supercomputer (current) Supercomputer (current)
RefRef HaeOnHaeOn HaeDamHaeDam TotalTotal
Installation YearInstallation Year 2010. 122010. 12
Core NumberCore Number 45,12045,120 45,120 45,120 90,24090,240
Core TypeCore Type AMD 2.1 GHz, 12 coreAMD 2.1 GHz, 12 core
Peak performancePeak performance 379 TF379 TF 379 TF379 TF 758TF758TF
Main MemoryMain Memory 60 TB60 TB 60 TB60 TB 120TB120TB
Capacity of DiskCapacity of Disk 4 PB4 PB
Capacity of Tape driveCapacity of Tape drive 8 PB8 PB
OSOS Suse Linux 11Suse Linux 11
HaeOn
HaeDam
Computing System for Operation(20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s)
Computing System for R&D and backup(20 Cabinets, 379Tflop/s)
HaeOn, HaeDam was ranked the 110th, 111th fastest supercomputer in the world (Nov. 2013)
Ref. ( http://www.top500.org )
5
E-ASIA•UM 12kmL70 / WRF 10kmL40• Target Length 87hrs/72hrs (6 hourly)• Initialization : 4DVAR / 3DVAR
GLOBAL• Resolution N512L70 (UM) (~25km / top = 80km)• Target Length 288hrs (00/12UTC) 87hrs (06/18UTC)• Initialization : Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR
Global EPS• Resolution N320L70 (UM) (~40km/ top =80km)• Target Length 288hrs• IC : GDAPS• # of Members : 24• Perturbation : ETKF, RP, SKEB2
LOCAL• Resolution 1.5kmL70 (UM) (744928 / top =39km)• Target Length 36hrs• Initialization : 3DVAR
Operational NWP SystemsOperational NWP Systems
6
ModelModel ResolutionResolution Target Target LengthLength Main targetMain target
UM (Global)N512(25km) L70
12 days87hours(06,18)
Medium-range
N320 L70 M24 12 days Medium-range (EPS)
UM (E.Asia) 12km L70 87 hours Short-range
WRF (E.Asia) 10km L40 87 hours Short-range
UM (Korea) 1.5km L70 36 hours Very short-range
KLAPS (Korea) 5km 12 hours Very short-range
Wave Watch III
55km 12days Global
8km 87 hours Northeast Asia
1km 72 hours Coastal
ADAM (Dust & Aerosol)
30km 72 hours Asia dust
DBAR (Typhoon) 35km 72 hours Track
Tide/Storm Surge 9km 87 hours Northeast Asia
GlobalGlobalGlobalGlobal
E-AsiaE-AsiaE-AsiaE-Asia
LocalLocalLocalLocal
App.App.& &
Stat.Stat.
App.App.& &
Stat.Stat.
Operational NWP Models (’13.6~)Operational NWP Models (’13.6~)
7
Update plans for NWP systemUpdate plans for NWP system
Year 2014 2015 2016 2017
computer 3rd 3rd to 4th 4th
Global
Deterministic
25km 70L Hybrid 4dVar
60km inner loop
17km70L Hybrid 4dVar
40km DA inner loop
Global
Ensemble
40km 70L 24M 6 hour cycle
25km 70L 24M6 hour cycle
Local
(LDAPS)
Deterministic
1.5km 70L 3dVar(3hr)
3km inner loop
1.5km 70L 4dVar(1hr)
3km inner loop
1.5km 70L Hybrid
4dVar(1hr)3km inner loop
1km 70L Hybrid
4dvar(1hr) 2km inner loop
Local
(LDAPS)
Ensemble
3km 70L 12M(Semi operation run)
3km 70L 12M(Official operation
run)
3km 70L 12M 1.5km 70L 24M
UndeterminedCoupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global modelUndeterminedCoupling with ocean wave, Asian dust model with global model
Update NWP system in 2013Update NWP system in 2013
9
NWP Changes in 2013NWP Changes in 2013
Global Data Assimilation and Prediction Syste (N512L70) Version changes
UM : vn7.7 → vn7.9 VAR/OPS : vn27.2 →vn29.2 SURF: vn18.2 → vn18.5
Major change 4dVar → Hybrid Ensemble 4dVar Physics package upgrade (PS26 → PS28)
Use Climatological Aerosols Data Set Add COMS CSR data
10
NWP Changes in 2013NWP Changes in 2013
Regional(East Asia) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(12kmL70) UM : vn7.7 → vn7.9 Physics package: PS27 → PS28 SURF: vn18.5 Ancillary Data Set update (CAP6.6 → CAP7.7)
New soil hydraulic properties – wilting and critical points New soil thermal conductivity
Local(Korea) Data Assimilation and Prediction System(1.5kmL70) UM : vn7.9 (1.5km L70 ) Physics package : PS27 → PS28 OPS : vn27.2 / VAR : vn27.2 → vn29.2 SURF: vn18.3 → vn18.5 Use Aerosol effect for Visibility with domestic emission data Latent heat nudging using Radar Data
11
Global Hybrid Ensemble 4DVARGlobal Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR
9h 9h 288h288h
BERR
ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE
ERLY ERLY(12d)
ERLY ERLY(12d)
GDAPS
EPS
06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC
Initial T+0Obs
• Changes in EPS : 2 times daily (00/12UTC) → 4 times daily (9 hours forecast at
06/18UTC)
• Use Hybrid background-error covariance (Climatological covariance :
Ensemble covariance = 1.0 : 0.3) to reflect “Error of the day”
Background
12
AVG
Verification against Observation / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%]
PositiveImpact
Verification Domain
Impact of Hybrid Ensemble 4DVARImpact of Hybrid Ensemble 4DVAR
July~August 2012
AVG
Verification Domain
December 2012
Verification against ECMWF Analysis (Z500) / Improvement over Non-hybrid D.A. [%]
July~August 2012 December 2012
NH TR SH NML ASIA EASIA AVG NH TR SH NML ASIA EASIA AVG
PositiveImpact
Verification Domain Verification Domain
13
Radiative Effect of Aerosol (Climatology)Radiative Effect of Aerosol (Climatology)
Summer Continental Warm Bias
14
GSM T213GSM T106 GSM T426 UM N320Model : UM N512
3DOI 3dVar1dVar(TOVS)
FGAT 4dVarD. A. : Hybrid 4dVar
Operational Global Model PerformanceOperational Global Model Performance
15
The effect of New soil hydraulic propertiesThe effect of New soil hydraulic properties
• The corrected soil hydraulic properties data set added to RDAPS(12kmL70).
• The new soil properties shows
wilting, critical point ↑ → soil moisture ↑ → surface temperature ↓
• Decreased the warm bias in the RDAPS for winter time
OLD
NEW
Comparison of the soil properties
local time
New soil properties
Old soil properties
Day Night
16
Visibility withVisibility with Murk Aerosols (LDAPS)Murk Aerosols (LDAPS)
• Aerosol emission of CAPSS1 at NIER2
Resolution : 1km X 1km [ kg/year/km2 ] Type : NOx, SOx, VOC Coverage : South Korea1 CAPSS : Clean Air Policy Support System2 NIER : National Institute of Environmental Research
• INTEX-B (NASA/2006) Resolution : 0.5o0.5o
Type : NOx, SOx, VOC Coverage : East Aisa
• Improved underestimation visibility for 1~5km
NEW
Relative Humidity
2
00*
)31(
000
ln
p
mm
rr
p
mm
Nair
vis
• : visual contrast(=0.05)• air : scattering coefficient of clear air(=1.0E-5)• r* : radius of total water concentration• m : concentration of murk aerosol - L_MURK=F : 10 [g/kg] - L_MURK=T : 0.1~200 [g/kg]
Aerosols effect
OLD
VisibilityMurk Aerosols
17
Plan for the new HPC introductionPlan for the new HPC introduction
HPC Plans
- Installation of 1st stage system : ‘14 Q4
- Installation of final stage system : ‘15 Q4
- Expacted Rpeak : ~10PFlops (current HPC : 0.75PFlops)
NWP PlansNWP system ‘15~’16 ‘17~’18
Global (Deterministic) ~17km ~12km
Global (EPS) ~25km ~17km
Local (Deterministic/EPS) 1.5~4km ~1km
18
Future Plans on NWP systemFuture Plans on NWP system
Model
Data assimilation
• Implementation of New Dynamical Core (ENDGame) (’15)
• Increasing resolution of the global model(Ocean wave, dust)
• Development of Probabilistic (Ensemble) NWP Systems
• A-O coupling for NWP (extended medium-range prediction)
• Development / Implementation of new D.A. technique
- Approach to use Ensemble information in D.A.
• Use of additional observation data
- CSR, Ground GPS, observation from new satellites
• Ocean D.A ( For Seasonal and extended range (30 days)).
19
Seamless Prediction ApproachSeamless Prediction Approach
Complexity
1day 3days 10days 1month 3months >year
1km
10km
100kmAtmos.(+Sfc.)
A-O Coupling
Earth System
Resolution
Target LengthNWP
GAP
Seasonal PredictionClimate Research
LDAPSRDAPS
GDAPS
Global EPS
Joint Seasonal Prediction System
20
Complexity
1day 3days 10days 1month 3months >year
1km
10km
100kmAtmos.(+Sfc.)
A-O Coupling
Earth System
Resolution
Target LengthNWP
Climate ResearchSeasonal Prediction
Extension of target length using coupled NWP system and ensemble approach
Spatio-temporally higher resolution prediction
Seamless Prediction ApproachSeamless Prediction Approach
N320(~40km) UM (M24 EPS) + NEMO(0.25deg)30-day prediction trial
21
Regional & Convective Scale ModellingRegional & Convective Scale Modelling
Incheon Seoul
IncheonInt’l AirportUM 1kmL70 for 17th Asian Game (Incheon, 2014)
- UM vn7.9 → vn8.2 / 360(E-W)x324(N-S) - Hourly 3DVAR (2km inner loop) cycle / FGAT → 4DVAR? - LBC from LDAPS model - T+12H
Local Ensemble & DA research
23
LENSLENS
2,013 km2,013 km
1,8
69
1,8
69
kmkm
• The integration area covers the Korean peninsula including oceans and parts of adjacent countries such as China and Japan.
• About 3km horizontal grid spacing and 70 vertical levels of top 40km altitude are employed.
• Simple downscaling of global Ensemble prediction system (N400L70, ~32km) will be adapted for IC and BC.
24
Resolution & Num. of membersResolution & Num. of members
Preliminary FSS score(Le Duc et al., 2013) result from 3 rainfall cases.
[1.0mm][0.1mm]
Spatial scale (neighborhood size)
3km 16 member shows best 3km 12 member selected to trial accounting
computer resources and stable performance
(3km 16) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 16) > (2km 8) > (3km 8) > (1.5km 16) ~ (1.5km 12) > (1.5km 8)
(3km 8) > (3km 12) > (2km 12) ~ (2km 8) ~ (3km 16) > (2km 16) > (1.5km 12) ~ (1.5km 16) > (1.5km 8)
Spatial scale (neighborhood size)
25
T+48
Trial schedule of LENSTrial schedule of LENS
9h 9h288h288h
BG_ERRBG_ERRss
ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE ERLY LATELATE
ERLY(12d)
ERLYERLY(12d)
ERLY
GDAPSGDAPS
EPSGEPSG
00 00 UTCUTC
06 06 UTCUTC
12 12 UTCUTC
18 18 UTCUTC
InitialInitial T+0T+0Obs.Obs.
BackgroundBackground
• Global ensemble prediction system(EPSG) provides perturbed initial and boundary conditions for LENS at T+3 forecast.
03UTC
Pert. IC (T+3)Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. BCPert. BC
T+4815UTC
Pert. IC (T+3)Pert. IC (T+3) Pert. BCPert. BC
12~24 members12~24 membersfor 2 days forecastfor 2 days forecast
LENSLENS
Hybrid Hybrid Ensemble Ensemble and 4dVarand 4dVar
DownscalingDownscaling
26
Application of Ensemble DA Application of Ensemble DA LENS observation sensitivity using LETKF
Sonde Surface Aircraft
N. OBS 8192 15415 1390
Sensitivity 4616.63 145.3896 37740.66
Sensitivity/number
0.5634 0.009432 2.715155
Forecast error contribution
18428.88 18188.11 257.9684
1 ( )
nObs
n n
J
0v
J 0v
1
( )( )
nObs
nn n
J
0
0
vv
2012080612
:Forecast error contribution:N Obs:Sensitivity
Spin-up 2012. 08. 03. 12 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 04. 12 UTC
experiment 2012. 08. 05. 00 UTC ~ 2012. 08. 06. 12 UTC(8 cases)
Ocean DA and forecasting
28
Short-range global ocean forecasting
Seasonal prediction in KMA (GloSea-5) ocean initial fields
Improvement of regional ocean forecasting in KMA lateral condition
Objective (application in KMA)
History
Introduction of NEMO-CICE and NEMOVAR from UK Met Office (2012.7)
- Pre-operational version of codes
• Short-range hindcast simulation
- start from 2010/06/10 (currently, running at 2010/08/ )
- using QCed obs. and NWP fluxes of UKMO
•Development of pre-processing system (2013.1~12.)
- Observations: gathering observations and quality control (NEMOQC)
- Fluxes: extraction from KMA NWP and interpolation to model
(ORCA025)
Purpose and statusPurpose and status
29
Hindcast ResultsHindcast Results
29
10/Jun/2010 ~ 15/Jun/2010 Comparison: SSH
30
Implementation of NEMO/NEMOVAR at KMA is on going. Next year, works on the post-processing will be conducted we will move a pre-operational this Year.
The assessment will also include inter-comparison with other reanalysis data, and comparison to independent data (e.g., surface drifter) The work on diagnosis of the NEMO/NEMOVAR will be started.
KMA has a plan to replace a current regional ocean model (ROMS) by regional-NEMO/NEMOVAR system. (northwestern Pacific Ocean with 1/12 deg.)
Summary & PlanSummary & Plan
Development at KIAPS
32
3D global hydrostatic model3D global hydrostatic modelCubed Sphere horizontal grid (CAM-SE) Lorenz grid hybrid / Finite difference in vertical(70 layers)ne30np4(~ 1o×1o)Plug-in Selected physics modules & dynamic core in own model frameworkDevelop suitable physics(convection, PBL) around 10 km resolution
Jan. 2012 mean zonal wind
Jan. 2012 mean precipitation
33
Developing Non-hydrostatic dynamic coreDeveloping Non-hydrostatic dynamic core
• Develop 2-D slice model to test compressible non-hydrostatic equations
• Develop 3-D in 2014(IMEX, CG in horizontal, FE in vertical)
34
Data assimilationData assimilation• Develop basic components for DA
– Ensemble DA using LETKF on cubed sphere grid– Minimization & variable conversion using spectral element method for
variation method– Developing 4DEnVar following 5 years using developed components– Surface, sonde, AMSU-A, IASI, AIRS data processing developed
U V
T q
Result from OSSE exp. Using Ensemble DA
No DA
Sonde
Sonde+AIRS
top related