Transcript
Cape Cod Targeted Heating and Cooling
AssistanceOverview for Cape Cod Commission – Ad Hoc Working Group
March 6, 2015DPU / DOER / MassCEC / Cape Light Compact / National Grid
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Cape Cod Situation• 5-7 year moratorium on new natural gas
interconnections for parts of Cape Cod• Parts of Cape Cod & Islands have no access
to natural gas• Increased electricity prices• Residents seeking cost-effective alternatives
for space and water heating
Approach: DPU convened relevant agencies, utilities, and organizations to develop a coordinated strategy to meet customer needs for alternatives during moratorium
Natural Gas Moratorium Towns
Additional Cape & Islands Towns
Background & Approach
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Alternative Heating Strategy1. Outreach: immediately engage with Cape Cod customers, organizations, and
trade groups• First phase targets residential customers, commercial customers in second phase
2. Informational resources: create and offer consumers neutral data on alternative heating options
3. Existing incentives: promote existing efficiency and renewables rebates and financing options
4. Renewable heating: MassCEC promotes deployment of renewable heating technologies, including
Timeframe: Throughout duration of moratorium
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TechnologiesOptions for space heating, cooling and Domestic Hot Water
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Natural GasSpace heating and Domestic Hot Water
• Standard technology• Not currently available to most Cape Cod customers• Conversion moratorium projected to be in place for 5-7 years (National Grid)
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Electric ResistanceSpace heating and Domestic Hot Water
• Standard technology• Easy and cheap install and maintenance, but highest energy cost of all
technologies due to low efficiency
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Fuel OilSpace heating and Domestic Hot Water
• Standard technology• Requires ongoing oil delivery, but available Cape-wide
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Propane, then Natural GasSpace heating and Domestic Hot Water
• Specific scenario in which residence first converts to propane and then to natural gas when moratorium is lifted (assumed 7 years)• Cheap and easy conversion from Propane to Natural Gas ($300)
• Only relevant for towns where natural gas distribution is available
Air Source Heat PumpSpace heating and cooling
• Mini-split systems are easy and quick to install (no ductwork)• Lowest upfront cost of the renewable heating options• Also provides A/C
• Effectiveness depends on building lay-out (number and size of rooms)
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Ground Source Heat PumpSpace heating and cooling
• Very high installation cost, though significant incentives available• Need for expert installer (limited installer pool locally), right underground
conditions for well drilling
• Also provides A/C
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Pellet BoilerSpace heating and Domestic Hot Water
• Boiler and heat distribution technology is similar to Natural Gas and Fuel Oil, making it a good retrofit candidate• Central heating system with automated pellet feed• Requires bulk pellet delivery (~3x per year) - currently limited on the Cape • Need to have space for fuel storage
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Heat Pump Water Heater Domestic Hot Water
• Very efficient electric water heater• Mass Save rebate available• Best when it can be placed in basement or garage
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Solar Thermal and PVSpace heating, Domestic Hot Water and electricity
• Solar PV: offsetting electric consumption, making it a good combination with heat pumps• Solar thermal: supplemental source of heating for domestic hot water
and/or space heating• High upfront cost, very low operational costs, and incentives available
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DataCost scenario’s and Greenhouse Gas emissions
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Analysis of Residential Customer CostsFinancial analysis conducted for alternative technologies• Typical existing home on Cape Cod• Installation costs as Cape Cod specific as possible• Operational costs (20 years) based on current energy rates and EIA projections
• Available state and federal incentives• Sensitivity scenarios • Electric and gas rates and heat pump costs• Duration of moratorium
Disclaimer: the analysis included here is generic and
for illustration purposes only. Actual costs will vary based on project specifics.
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Customer Scenarios• Comparisons• Upfront and Lifetime costs• Greenhouse Gas emissions
New Build: type of heating/cooling system needs to be decided
Retrofit: existing heating system needs to replaced
With/Without cooling With/Without cooling
Heating distribution system needed Heating distribution system already exists
Include Domestic Hot Water heater Replace existing Domestic Hot Water heater
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Upfront cost for heating, hot water and cooling New home, including A/C, including incentives
Ground Source
Heat P
ump/Solar P
V
Biomass/Solar C
ombi
Fuel O
il/Solar C
ombi
Ground Source
Heat Pump
Air Source
Heat P
ump/Solar PV
Biomass/Solar H
ot Water
Fuel O
il/Solar H
ot Water
Biomass Pelle
ts
Fuel O
il
Propane/N
atural Gas
Natural Gas
Air Source
Heat Pump
Electr
ic Resis
tance $-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
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Upfront cost for heating, hot waterRetrofit of existing home, no A/C, including incentives
Ground Source
Heat P
ump/Solar P
V
Air Source
Heat Pump/So
lar PV
Ground So
urce Heat
Pump
Biomass/Solar C
ombi
Fuel
Oil/Solar C
ombi
Air Source
Heat Pump
Biomass/Solar H
ot Water
Fuel O
il/Solar H
ot Water
Biomass Pelle
ts
Fuel O
il
Propane/N
atural
Gas
Natural Gas
Electr
ic Resis
tance $-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
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Lifetime cost for heating, hot water and coolingNew home, including A/C, including incentives
Electr
ic Resi
stance
Fuel
Oil
Fuel
Oil / So
lar Hot W
ater
Fuel
Oil / So
lar Combi
Ground Source
Heat P
ump
Biomass / S
olar Hot W
ater
Biomass / S
olar Combi
Biomass
Propane /
Natural
Gas
Natural
Gas
Ground Source
Heat P
ump / Solar
PV
Air Source
Heat P
ump
Air Source
Heat P
ump / Solar
PV $-
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
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Electric ResistanceFuel OilFuel Oil/Solar Hot WaterFuel Oil/Solar CombiGround Source Heat PumpBiomass/Solar Hot WaterBiomass/Solar CombiBiomass PelletsPropane/Natural GasNatural GasGround Source Heat Pump/Solar PVAir Source Heat PumpAir Source Heat Pump/Solar PV
-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Lifetime cost compared to Electric ResistanceNew home, including A/C, including incentives
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Electric ResistanceFuel OilFuel Oil/Solar Hot WaterFuel Oil/Solar CombiGround Source Heat PumpBiomass/Solar Hot WaterBiomass/Solar CombiBiomass PelletsPropane/Natural GasNatural GasGround Source Heat Pump/Solar PVAir Source Heat PumpAir Source Heat Pump/Solar PV
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Lifetime cost compared to Fuel OilNew home, including A/C, including incentives
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Electric Resistance
Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water
Ground Source Heat Pump
Biomass/Solar Combi
Propane/Natural Gas
Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV
Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lifetime cost compared to Natural GasNew home, including A/C, including incentives
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Lifetime cost for heating, hot waterRetrofit of existing home, no A/C, including incentives
Electr
ic Resi
stance
Ground Source
Heat P
ump
Fuel
Oil
Fuel
Oil/Solar
Hot Wate
r
Fuel
Oil/Solar
Combi
Air Source
Heat P
ump
Biomass/So
lar Hot W
ater
Biomass/So
lar Combi
Biomass Pell
ets
Propane/N
atural
Gas
Ground Source
Heat P
ump/Solar
PV
Air Source
Heat P
ump/Solar
PV
Natural
Gas $-
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000
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Lifetime cost compared to Electric ResistanceRetrofit, no A/C, including incentives
Electric ResistanceGround Source Heat PumpFuel OilFuel Oil/Solar Hot WaterFuel Oil/Solar CombiAir Source Heat PumpBiomass/Solar Hot WaterBiomass/Solar CombiBiomass PelletsPropane/Natural GasGround Source Heat Pump/Solar PVAir Source Heat Pump/Solar PVNatural Gas
-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
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Lifetime cost compared to Fuel OilRetrofit, no A/C, including incentives
Electric Resistance
Fuel Oil
Fuel Oil/Solar Combi
Biomass/Solar Hot Water
Biomass Pellets
Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV
Natural Gas
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
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Lifetime cost compared to Natural GasRetrofit, no A/C, including incentives
Electric ResistanceGround Source Heat PumpFuel OilFuel Oil/Solar Hot WaterFuel Oil/Solar CombiAir Source Heat PumpBiomass/Solar Hot WaterBiomass/Solar CombiBiomass PelletsPropane/Natural GasGround Source Heat Pump/Solar PVAir Source Heat Pump/Solar PVNatural Gas
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%
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Annual Greenhouse Gas emissionsSpace heating and Domestic Hot Water
Biomass Pell
ets/So
lar Combi
Biomass Pell
ets/So
lar Hot W
ater
Biomass Pell
ets
Ground Source
Heat P
ump
Air Source
Heat P
ump
Fuel
Oil/Solar
Combi
Natural
Gas
Propane
Fuel
Oil/Solar
Hot Wate
r
Fuel
Oil
Electr
ic Resi
stance
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Tons
CO
2/ye
ar
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Customer outreachStrategies
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Alternative Heating Strategy1. Outreach: immediately engage with Cape Cod customers, organizations, and trade groups:
• Cape Cod Commission ad-hoc committee, • building contractors/realtors associations, • municipal officials, etc.
2. Informational resources: create and offer consumers neutral data on alternative heating options• Central web landing page and customer triage (Cape Light Compact) - http://www.capelightcompact.org/ccoptions/ • Informational handout (Cape Light Compact, National Grid)• Renewable heating concierge service (MassCEC)
3. Existing incentives: promote existing efficiency and renewables rebates and financing options4. Renewable heating: MassCEC promotes deployment of renewable heating technologies, including
• Coordinating with local groups organizing bulk purchasing • Supporting targeted marketing • Identifying industry gaps and supporting workforce training efforts
Timeframe: Throughout duration of moratorium
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Additional SlidesBackground information
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Acronym
ER Electric Resistance
FO Fuel Oil
NG Natural Gas
LP-NG Propane converted to Natural Gas after 7 years
FO/SHW Fuel Oil with additional Solar Hot Water
FO/SolCombi Fuel Oil with Solar Combi for space heating and domestic hot water
BIO Biomass pellet boiler
BIO/SHW Biomass pellet boiler with Solar Hot Water
BIO/SolCombi Biomass pellet boiler with Solar Combi for space heating and domestic hot water
GSHP Ground Source Heat Pump
GSHP/PV Ground Source Heat Pump with Solar PV
ASHP Air Source Heat Pump
ASHP/PV Air Source Heat Pump with Solar PV
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Customer ScenariosHVAC technologies modeled for new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings
Note: policy may need to be clear on fuel switching and/or savings adjustments from eventually switching fuels
Space heating Domestic Hot Water
Natural Gas Secondary heater
Fuel Oil Secondary heater
Electric resistance Electric Storage Water Heater
Temporary shift to Propane and then to Natural Gas in 7 years Secondary heater
Air Source Heat Pump Heat Pump Water Heater
Ground Source Heat Pump Heat Pump Water Heater
Biomass Pellet boiler Secondary heater
Additional to Fuel Oil, Biomass
Solar Combi System Solar Hot Water
Additional to Air Source and Ground Source Heat Pumps
Solar PV
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Calculation details• Sensitivity scenarios• High electricity rate: 30% higher than EIA long term outlook• High natural gas rate: 30% higher than EIA long term outlook• High ASHP install cost: 50% higher than average cost of $4,000/unit• Low ASHP install cost: 25% lower than average cost of $4,000/unit• NG moratorium duration: 5 and 9 years versus assumed 7 years
• Solar Installation assumptions• Solar domestic hot water: serves 60% of annual DHW load• Solar combi system: serves 40% of annual heating and DHW load• Solar PV system: 7kW financed with low interest loan
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Source: DOER Markets Division, data as of 1/31/2015 looking out to 2026
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Base CaseNew Construction – incl. A/C
Technology Net Present Cost Capital Cost
20-yr Operating
Cost
Electric Resistance $ 83,867 $ 11,250 $ 115,696
Fuel Oil $ 66,319 $ 23,250 $ 73,263
Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water $ 66,087 $ 26,470 $ 67,781
Fuel Oil/Solar Heating $ 62,461 $ 36,900 $ 45,243
Ground-Source HP $ 58,815 $ 36,150 $ 38,569
Biomass/Solar Hot Wat. $ 58,669 $ 28,970 $ 51,338
Biomass/Solar Heating $ 58,464 $ 39,400 $ 34,540
Biomass Boiler $ 58,069 $ 25,750 $ 55,424
Propane to Natural Gas $ 56,967 $ 22,750 $ 53,311
Natural Gas $ 45,768 $ 21,750 $ 41,095
Ground-Source HP w/ PV $ 44,085 $ 36,150 $ 14,102
Air-Source HP $ 43,750 $ 12,650 $ 50,139
Air-Source HP w/ PV $ 29,019 $ 12,650 $ 25,672
Retrofit – excl. A/C
Technology Net Present Cost
Upfront Cost
20-yr Operating
Cost
Electric Resistance $ 75,407 $ 4,500 $ 112,483
Ground-Source HP $ 48,421 $ 26,150 $ 37,192
Fuel Oil $ 48,334 $ 6,500 $ 70,049
Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water $ 48,103 $ 9,720 $ 64,567
Fuel Oil/Solar Heating $ 44,477 $ 20,150 $ 42,029
Air-Source HP $ 42,531 $ 12,650 $ 48,211
Biomass/Solar Hot Wat. $ 40,685 $ 12,220 $ 48,124
Biomass/Solar Heating $ 40,479 $ 22,650 $ 31,326
Biomass Boiler $ 40,084 $ 9,000 $ 52,210
Propane to Natural Gas $ 38,983 $ 6,000 $ 70,049
Ground-Source HP w/ PV $ 33,690 $ 26,150 $ 12,725
Air-Source HP w/ PV $ 27,800 $ 12,650 $ 23,744
Natural Gas $ 27,783 $ 5,000 $ 37,881
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Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRelative to NG
Electric Resistance 54%Fuel Oil 40%Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water 29%Propane to Natural Gas 24%Natural Gas 0%Fuel Oil/Solar Heating -16%Air-Source Heat Pump -34%Ground-Source Heat Pump -49%Biomass Boiler -50%Biomass/Solar Hot Water -54%Biomass/Solar Heating -70%ASHP/GSHP & PV -100%
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/PV
GSHP/PV
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction
Base Case, incl. A/C Base Case, excl. A/C
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/P
V
GSHP/PV
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit
Base Case, incl. A/C Base Case, excl. A/C
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Sensitivity scenariosTesting sensitivity to electric and natural gas rates, as well as ASHP install cost
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/PV
GSHP/PV
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction
Base Case, incl. A/C High electricity - incl. A/C High natural gas - incl. A/C
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/PV
GSHP/PV
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction
Base Case, incl. A/C High ASHP - incl. A/C Low ASHP - incl. A/C
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/P
V
GSHP/PV
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit
Base Case, incl. A/C High ASHP - incl. A/C Low ASHP - incl. A/C
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/P
V
GSHP/PV
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit
Base Case, incl. A/C High electricity - incl. A/C High natural gas - incl. A/C
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/P
V
GSHP/PV
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
$100,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit
Base Case, excl. A/C High electricity - excl. A/C High natural gas - excl. A/C
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/P
V
GSHP/PV
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit
Base Case, excl. A/C High ASHP - excl. A/C Low ASHP - excl. A/C
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Moratorium Length SensitivityLP-NG / Net Present Cost
incl. A/C excl. A/C incl. A/C excl. A/CNew Construction Base Case $ 56,967 $ 48,507 Longer Moratorium $ 58,828 $ 50,368 103% 104%Shorter Moratorium $ 55,092 $ 46,631 97% 96%Retrofit Base Case $ 47,444 $ 38,983 Longer Moratorium $ 49,304 $ 40,844 104% 105%Shorter Moratorium $ 45,384 $ 36,923 96% 95%
Longer Moratorium = Moratorium is 9 years instead of 7 yearsShorter Moratorium = Moratorium is 5 years instead of 7 years
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ERLP
-NG FO NG
ASHP
GSHP
BIO
BIO/SH
W
BIO/So
lCombi
FO/SH
W
FO/So
lCombi
ASHP/P
V
GSHP/PV
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction
Base Case, incl. A/C Longer Moratorium, incl. A/CShorter Moratorium, incl. A/C
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Air Source Heat Pump with Solar PV – Upfront Investment
• Ideal combination of PV with efficient electric heating/cooling option• Revenue from SRECs not included
Solar Installed Cost: $31,500 7 kW System @$4.50/wattHeat Pump Installed Cost: $11,000 3 – 1 Ton Systems
Total Installed Cost: $42,500Cool Smart® Rebates: ($1,500) (3 - $500 rebates)
CEC ASHP Rebates: ($2,250) (3 - $750 rebates)MA Personal Income Tax Credit: ($1,000) (15% Solar Installed Cost, up to $1000)
Federal Investment Tax Credit: ($7,875) (30% Solar Installed Cost)Net Owner Investment: $29,875
Heat Pump Net Investment: $7,250 (Financed through Mass Save HEAT loan)Solar PV Net Investment: $22,625 (Financed with DOER Solar Loan?)
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Technology SummariesAdditional discussion of alternatives
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Natural Gas• Standard technology• Low install cost, easy/low cost maintenance• Natural gas prices currently low and predicted to remain low• Cooling requires additional A/C installed• New construction requires distribution system to be installed• Not currently available to most Cape Cod customers• Conversion moratorium projected to be in place for 5-7 years (National Grid)
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Electric Resistance• Standard technology• Easy and cheap install and maintenance, not location sensitive• Highest energy cost of all technologies due to low efficiency• Cooling requires additional A/C installed
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Propane, then Natural Gas• Specific scenario in which residence first converts to propane and
then to natural gas when moratorium is lifted (assumed 7 years)• Lifetime cost savings compared to Fuel Oil (15-20%) or Electric
Resistance (35-50%)• New construction requires distribution system to be installed• Cheap and easy conversion from Propane to Natural Gas ($300)• Requires installation and rental of propane tank ($100 per year)• Cleaner burning fuel than Fuel Oil• Cooling requires additional A/C installed
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Air Source Heat Pump• Mini-split systems are easy and quick to install (no ductwork)• Lowest upfront cost of the renewable heating options• Energy bill impact: • Compared to Electric Resistance: lowers electricity use by X2, X3• Compared to fossil fuels: increases electricity use, but heating cost savings
compared to Fuel Oil/Propane, not compared to Natural Gas
• Effectiveness depends on building lay-out (number and size of rooms)• Also provides A/C• Does not require installation of distribution system for new construction
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Ground Source Heat Pump• Very high installation cost, though significant incentives available• Need for expert installer, right underground conditions for well drilling• Limited installer pool locally
• Energy bill impact: • Compared to Electric Resistance: lowers electricity use by X3, X4• Compared to fossil fuels: increases electricity use, but lowest operational
heating costs of all technologies
• Also provides A/C
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Pellet Boiler• Boiler and heat distribution technology is similar to Natural Gas and
Fuel Oil, making it a good retrofit candidate• Need to have space for fuel storage• Relatively high upfront cost, though significant incentives available• Maintenance required, but limited• Bulk pellet delivery on the Cape currently limited• Cooling requires additional A/C installed• New construction requires distribution system to be installed
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