CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist

CANSAC Products tour

From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist

36-km domain

Strong ridgeof high pressurealoft – at 500 mb.

21-hr forecast,valid last

Tuesday night

36-km domain

700 mb (~10K ft) humidityand wind

36-hr forecast,valid last

Wednesday afternoon

36-km domain

850 mb (~5000 ft level) Temps –colorsPressure –lines and Wind- barbs

60-hr forecast,valid last Thursday afternoon

12-km domain

700 mb (~10,000 ft level) Temps – colorsPressure – lines

and Wind- barbs

36-hr forecast,valid two

afternoons ago

12-km domain

700 mb (~10,000 ft level)

RH – colorsVert Vel. – lines & Wind- barbs

18-hr forecast,valid this past Mon. evening

Blue in ID/east OR is lift ahead

of an upper-level trough

Above is a comparison of what we call Thickness (1000-500mb). We use it to gaugeoverall airmass temperature. The mild airmass of Monday morning is on left, and

a much colder airmass (Wed. morning) following recent weather change is on the right.

12-km domain

Surface level

Temps – colorsPressure – lines

Wind- barbs

15-hr forecast,valid back on

Monday, when CA was still in warm airmass

12-km domain

This is a map of the high-level Haines

Index. It is a 48-hour forecast valid

yesterday morning.

This Index is meant todepict the potential for

large fire growth, given an existing wild-

fire. But it doesn’ttake wind into

account. It’s best use is to predict plume-dominated vs wind-driven fire behavior.

12-km domain

Pressure – blue linesWind speed – colors

Important to remem-ber on these upper airmaps: Wind is shown

in meters/sec. Youcan approximate mph

speeds by doubling thevalue shown here.

In other words, the southern UT windsare over 50 mph!

54-hr fcst, validyesterday morning.

12-km domain

Same idea as previousframe, except at a

higher level – this time500 mb, about 18000’.

Winds over Bay Area and Tahoe exceed

80 mph!

48 hour forecast valid 4am yesterday

morning

12-km domain

Map of 24-hr total predicted

precipitation, for the period 4 pm PST Tuesday to 4pm Wed.

Scale is in inches. Each

level up is double the amount of

predicted rain.

Some other useful informationfound on the main Products

matrix page

The first highlighted here is the“MM5 Notices and Problems Log”

Other useful information,continued….

This is where you click to lookat Air Quality Products. It is a

relatively new section of the page.

Evan Shipp will cover some ofthese shortly

Air Quality Products

Other useful information, continued ….

This is where you click to lookat NFDRS Products. This page Requires a login and password.

Experimental NFDRS 1-day Forecasts National Fire Danger Rating System

When you click onone of these imagesyou get a full screen

of that image.For example, EnergyRelease Component

(ERC) here

Energy Release Component Forecast Initialization: 20060214 00Z -- Valid for 20060214

Other useful information, continued ….

This is where you click to findVerification products forour CANSAC MM5 model.

300 mb Heights, Winds – Analysis etc. 300 mb Heights, Winds -- Model 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- AnalysisAnalysis 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- ModelModel 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis etc. 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds – Model850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model

In the verification example above, the MM5 model’s 48-hour forecast of 500mb temperatures, pressure (height) lines, and winds are on the right. The forecast was made at 12z (4am PST) on Feb. 10th, so it predicts for the time of 12z on Feb. 12th. What actually happened at 12z on Feb. 12th (i.e. the verification) is shown on the left.

Verification from 12-km domain. One can also look at 36-km and 4-km domains

Other useful information, continued ….

This is where you can provide feedback to the CEFA/DRI folks

who run the MM5 model

This frame shows most of the products from the 4-km domain, i.e, themodel domain with the best resolution

Surface 10m Wind Speed (NW Quadrant) 12-Hr fcst valid Tues. 4pm PST on 2/14

Surface 10m Wind Speed (SE Quadrant) 33-Hr fcst valid 1pm this afternoon (2/16)

4-km domain

Predicted surfacetemperatures

in the current cold airmass.

In CANSAC graphics, surface temp maps are in Fahrenheit, while upper maps are in

in ºC.

This is a 57-hour projection, valid

1300 PST Friday.

4-km domain

Predicted surfaceRelative Humidity

This is a 33-hour projection, valid 1300

PST today.

In the MM5’s 4-km Domain section,You can click on ‘Soundings’. Thiswill bring you to the map on the left. Placing your cursor over a Sounding point will bring a smallpop-up with the Site name.

When you click you will see the first (zero forecast hr) Sounding, with a top menu bar containing the other 20 choices at 3-hour intervals out through 60 hours.

Sounding at Sonora CA

valid 4am PST2/8/06