Calyon Securities US Airline Conference 2007
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United Air Lines Inc.United Air Lines Inc.
December 4, 2007December 4, 2007
Calyon Securities2007 Airline Conference
Calyon Securities2007 Airline Conference
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Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation
Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation
The information included in this presentation contains certain statements that are “Forward-Looking Statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties related to the Company’s operations and the business environment in which it operates. Actual results may differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such Forward-Looking Statements due to numerous factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, including factors set forth in the Company’s Form 10-K for 2006 and other subsequent Company reports filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Persons reviewing this presentation are cautioned that the Forward-Looking Statements speak only as of the date made and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any Forward-Looking Statements.
Information regarding reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures is available on the company’s website at www.united.com/ir.
The information included in this presentation contains certain statements that are “Forward-Looking Statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties related to the Company’s operations and the business environment in which it operates. Actual results may differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such Forward-Looking Statements due to numerous factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, including factors set forth in the Company’s Form 10-K for 2006 and other subsequent Company reports filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Persons reviewing this presentation are cautioned that the Forward-Looking Statements speak only as of the date made and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any Forward-Looking Statements.
Information regarding reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures is available on the company’s website at www.united.com/ir.
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Core business is performing well
United’s financial results are fully competitive
Well positioned to compete in a changing global marketplace
– Best network
– Star Alliance
– Leading international premium product
Disaggregating businesses
– Clear line of sight to core airline business
– Eliminate cross subsidies and unlock value
Core business is performing well
United’s financial results are fully competitive
Well positioned to compete in a changing global marketplace
– Best network
– Star Alliance
– Leading international premium product
Disaggregating businesses
– Clear line of sight to core airline business
– Eliminate cross subsidies and unlock value
We Are Driving Shareholder Value…We Are Driving Shareholder Value…
..By Thinking And Working Differently
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Performance Highlights - Year to Date September 30, 2007
Strong revenue performance driven by capacity and pricing discipline, network optimization and introduction of new products and services
– Mainline PRASM up 5.1% year over year
– Consolidated PRASM up 4.6% year over year
Continued focus on controlling costs through continuous improvement regimen
– Consolidated CASM, excluding fuel, up only 1.1% year over year
Pre-tax earnings of $700 million
– Pre-tax margin - 4.7%; nearly 15 times higher than YTD 9/30/2006
Generated operating cash flow of $2 billion
– Free cash flow of $1.6 billion, up 55% from YTD 9/30/2006
Performance Highlights - Year to Date September 30, 2007
Strong revenue performance driven by capacity and pricing discipline, network optimization and introduction of new products and services
– Mainline PRASM up 5.1% year over year
– Consolidated PRASM up 4.6% year over year
Continued focus on controlling costs through continuous improvement regimen
– Consolidated CASM, excluding fuel, up only 1.1% year over year
Pre-tax earnings of $700 million
– Pre-tax margin - 4.7%; nearly 15 times higher than YTD 9/30/2006
Generated operating cash flow of $2 billion
– Free cash flow of $1.6 billion, up 55% from YTD 9/30/2006
The Core Business Is Performing WellThe Core Business Is Performing Well
Note: Pre-tax earnings, PRASM and CASM numbers exclude special items and severance.
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Operating Discipline Is Key To Recouping Higher Fuel Costs
Operating Discipline Is Key To Recouping Higher Fuel Costs
• Capacity – First carrier to begin process of
moving capacity to int’l markets in 2004
– Quick to take additional action this year
– Expect 2008 mainline domestic capacity to be down 3% -4%
• Pricing– Led 5 system wide fare increases in
the last 6 months– Have initiated over 50 other tactical
domestic increases in the same time period
• Results – Continuing trend of strong quarterly
PRASM growth
• Capacity – First carrier to begin process of
moving capacity to int’l markets in 2004
– Quick to take additional action this year
– Expect 2008 mainline domestic capacity to be down 3% -4%
• Pricing– Led 5 system wide fare increases in
the last 6 months– Have initiated over 50 other tactical
domestic increases in the same time period
• Results – Continuing trend of strong quarterly
PRASM growth
Mainline RASM* Vs. Mainline Capacity Twelve Months Ended
*Excludes UAFC and Special items
Cents Billion ASMs
Cents Billion ASMs
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Our Progress Is Reflected In Our Competitive Unit Earnings Performance…
Our Progress Is Reflected In Our Competitive Unit Earnings Performance…
3.32
3.91
4.234.43
4.104.13
3.94
4.174.244.45
NWA DAL UAUA AMR LCC CAL LUV
Mainline Unit Earnings excluding Fuel Costs (RASM minus CASM ex Fuel)
Twelve Months Ended 9/30/2007¢/ASM
Sources: Company press releases. All results also exclude special items, regional affiliates and any applicable non-cash fresh-start and exit-related impacts. YOY results reflect Fresh-Start adjustments, where applicable.
TME 3Q07 B/(W) than TME 3Q06 19.4% 28.4% 13.0% 8.7% 12.8% 6.6% 4.3%
UAUA Fresh Start AdjustedUAUA Unadjusted OA Unadjusted
OA Fresh Start Adjusted
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… As Well As Our Competitive Margin Performance… As Well As Our Competitive Margin Performance
Sources: Company press releases. *All results also exclude special items and any applicable non-cash fresh-start impacts.
Pre-Tax Margin* (%)Twelve Months Ended 9/30/2007
3.7%
2.7%2.8%
3.7%4.7%
5.6%
6.9%
LUV NWA LCC UAUA CAL AMR DAL
8.1%
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Free Cash Flow Metrics Are Not Obscured By Exit Accounting; United Leads Peers
Free Cash Flow Metrics Are Not Obscured By Exit Accounting; United Leads Peers
1.2%
3.8%
5.6%5.8%6.4%
8.9%
UAUA AMR LUV CAL NWA LCC DAL
1.2%
3.8%
5.6%5.8%6.4%
8.9%
UAUA AMR LUV CAL NWA LCC DAL
Sources: Company press releases. FCF or Free Cash Flow defined as cash flows from operations less capital expenditures. UAUA revenue includes fresh start revenue adjustment.
Free Cash Flow/Total Revenue
Twelve Months Ended 9/30/2007
$0.30$1.86
$5.07$5.70
$6.98$7.96
$11.08
UAUA AMR CAL LUV NWA LCC DAL
$0.30$1.86
$5.07$5.70
$6.98$7.96
$11.08
UAUA AMR CAL LUV NWA LCC DAL
Free Cash Flow/Consolidated ASMs$/1,000 ASMs
0.2%
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Our Strategic Plan Is A 5-Year Roadmap To Create Value For All Stakeholders
Our Strategic Plan Is A 5-Year Roadmap To Create Value For All Stakeholders
We will be the global airline of choice for premium customers, employees
and investors
Customers Investors
Employees
SafetySafety
Balancing the needs of all stakeholders and strengthening the
core business
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We Are Charting Our Own Course To Create Value For Shareholders
We Are Charting Our Own Course To Create Value For Shareholders
•Strengthen the core airline–Consistently delivering superior
service–Delivering differentiated products
and services–Building employees’ connection and
commitment to United–Developing new sources of revenue
and controlling costs•Disaggregating business units•Participate in consolidation given the right opportunity
5 Year Plan
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Our Safety Roadmap: Increase Focus On Standard Work, Lost-Time Injuries and Aircraft Damage
Our Safety Roadmap: Increase Focus On Standard Work, Lost-Time Injuries and Aircraft Damage
• Safety will always be our No. 1 priority. United is committed to ensuring the safety of our customers and employees and to maintaining our leadership position in the industry.
• Will improve performance to keep employees safe and reduce aircraft damage– Investing in additional training– Using standard work practices
Safety
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Our Customer Roadmap: Build Lifelong Relationships Through Commitment to Products, Service and ActionOur Customer Roadmap: Build Lifelong Relationships Through Commitment to Products, Service and Action
• Attracting distinctive customer segments by providing unique, differentiated products and services
• Consistently delivering superior service means excelling on the basics
Customers
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Our Employee Roadmap: Provide Resources, Support To Enable Employees and Rebuild Commitment
Our Employee Roadmap: Provide Resources, Support To Enable Employees and Rebuild Commitment
• Providing the resources, work environment and training for employees to be successful
Employees
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Our Investor Roadmap: To Deliver Returns To Shareholders
Our Investor Roadmap: To Deliver Returns To Shareholders
• Strengthening core business• Driving revenue premiums by
– Strengthening network while exercising capacity and pricing discipline− Providing unique differentiated products and services− Improving customer service− Unbundling products and services, allowing customer to tailor their
experience• Leveraging continuous improvement across the company to improve
processes, efficiency, and control costs– Transforming Strategic Sourcing to drive cost savings from vendor
relationships– Continuing to shift toward lower cost distribution channels
• Disaggregating business units• Participate in consolidation given the right opportunity
Investors
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Going Forward, We Will Continue to Focus on Generating Value for All Our Stakeholders
Going Forward, We Will Continue to Focus on Generating Value for All Our Stakeholders
Modest capex helps fuel strong free cash flow
– Non-aircraft capex of $550MM in 2007 and $650M in 2008 focused on customer, infrastructure and IT needs
– No planned capital expenditure for new aircraft
Limited fixed obligations results in strong cash position
– Limited debt maturities; approximately $700M in 2008
– No material defined benefit pension funding
Primary use of free cash flow is to pay down debt
Considering using portion of free cash flow for shareholder initiatives
– Currently seeking amendment to credit agreement to create flexibility for dividends / stock repurchases
– Convertibles also an option
Modest capex helps fuel strong free cash flow
– Non-aircraft capex of $550MM in 2007 and $650M in 2008 focused on customer, infrastructure and IT needs
– No planned capital expenditure for new aircraft
Limited fixed obligations results in strong cash position
– Limited debt maturities; approximately $700M in 2008
– No material defined benefit pension funding
Primary use of free cash flow is to pay down debt
Considering using portion of free cash flow for shareholder initiatives
– Currently seeking amendment to credit agreement to create flexibility for dividends / stock repurchases
– Convertibles also an option
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Core business is performing well
United’s financial results are fully competitive
Well positioned to compete in a changing global marketplace
– Best network
– Star Alliance
– Leading international premium product
Disaggregating businesses
– Clear line of sight to core airline business
– Eliminate cross subsidies and unlock value
Core business is performing well
United’s financial results are fully competitive
Well positioned to compete in a changing global marketplace
– Best network
– Star Alliance
– Leading international premium product
Disaggregating businesses
– Clear line of sight to core airline business
– Eliminate cross subsidies and unlock value
We Are Driving Shareholder Value…We Are Driving Shareholder Value…
..By Thinking And Working Differently
Non-GAAP To GAAP ReconciliationNon-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliation
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Non-GAAP To GAAP ReconciliationsNon-GAAP To GAAP Reconciliations
The Company believes that the reported non-GAAP financial results provide management and investors a better perspective of the Company’s core business and on-going financial performance and trends by excluding special items, severance, fresh-start items and fuel for comparative purposes.
The Company believes that the reported non-GAAP financial results provide management and investors a better perspective of the Company’s core business and on-going financial performance and trends by excluding special items, severance, fresh-start items and fuel for comparative purposes.
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PRASMPRASM%
(in millions, unless stated) IncreaseMainline 2007 2006 (Decrease)
11,457$ 10,978$ 4.4 37 - -
11,494$ 10,978$ 4.7 Mainline available seat miles 106,941 107,780 (0.8) Adjusted Mainline PRASM (in cents) 10.71 10.19 5.1 Mainline PRASM (in cents) 10.75 10.19 5.5
Consolidated13,755$ 13,181$ 4.4
45 - -13,800$ 13,181$ 4.7
Consolidated available seat miles 119,243 119,547 (0.3) Adjusted Consolidated PRASM (in cents) 11.54 11.03 4.6 Consolidated PRASM (in cents) 11.57 11.03 4.9
Nine months ended September 30,
Passenger - United AirlinesAdd: Income from special itemMainline passenger revenue
Consolidated passenger revenuesAdd: Income from special itemConsolidated passenger revenue
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Mainline Unit EarningsMainline Unit Earnings
%($ and ASMs in Millions; Rates in cents) 2007 2006 Change
Total operating earnings 1,124$ 242$
Less: Regional Affiliates 128 (4)Mainline operating earnings 996$ 246$ Fuel 4,710 4,851UAFC (10) (9)Special items (a) (87) (8)
Mainline operating earnings excl. fuel & special 5,609$ 5,080$ Available seat miles (ASM) 142,256 142,572Mainline Unit Earnings excl. fuel & special 3.94 3.56 10.7%
Mainline Unit Earnings Excl. Fuel & Special
(a) For TME 9/30/07, special items excludes the impact of $50 million in gains related to Airport Municipal bonds and otherbankruptcy-related items. TME 9/30/06 adjusted CASM also excludes a $22 million charge for severance and a $30 million gainrelated to SFO Airport Municipal Bonds.
September 30,Twelve months ending
Mainline operating earnings excl. fuel & special 5,609$ $ 5,080
Adjusted for Fresh Start
Adjusted mainline earnings
Adjusted available seat miles (ASM)
Adjusted Mainline Unit Earnings
332 174
5,941 $ 5,254$
142,256 142,572
4.17 3.69 13.0%
Mainline Unit Earnings Excl. Fuel, Special & Fresh-start
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Free Cash Flow MetricsFree Cash Flow Metrics
Twelve Months Ended, September 2007
Cash Flow from Operations 2,295$ Less: Capital Expenditures 538Free Cash Flow 1,757$
Total Revenue $19,699
Consolidated ASM 158,531
FCF / Total Revenue 8.9%FCF / 1,000 ASM 11.08
($ and ASM in millions)
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Pre-Tax Income, Free Cash Flow, CASM ex FuelPre-Tax Income, Free Cash Flow, CASM ex Fuel%
(in millions) IncreasePre-tax income 2007 2006 (Decrease)Earnings before income taxes 793$ 22,988$ (96.6) Less: Reorganization income, net - (22,934) (100.0) Adjusted pre-tax income 793 54 NMLess: Income from special revenue items (45) - -Less: Income from special expense items (44) (30) 46.7 Less: Gain from debt retirement (22) - -Add: Severance - 22 (100.0) Add: Credit facility amendment financing costs 23 - -Adjusted pre-tax income $ 705 $ 46 NMConsolidated operating revenues $ 15,113 $ 14,721 2.4 Adjusted pre-tax margin (percent) 4.7 0.3 4.4 pt.
Free cash flow Operating cash flow 2,002$ 1,269$ 57.8Less: Capital Expenditures 428 252 69.8Free Cash Flow 1,574$ 1,017$ 54.8
Consolidated CASM excluding fuelConsolidated operating expenses 14,012$ 14,330$ (2.2) Less: Fuel and UAFC 4,258 4,614 (7.7) Adjusted consolidated operating expenses 9,754$ 9,716$ 0.4 Consolidated available seat miles 119,243 119,547 (0.3) Adjusted consolidated CASM (in cents) 8.18 8.13 0.6
Consolidated operating expenses excluding fuel and UAFC 9,754$ 9,716$ 0.4 Add: Income from special items 44 30 46.7 Less: Severance - (22) (100.0) Adjusted consolidated CASM (in cents) 9,798$ 9,724$ 0.8
8.22 8.13 1.1
Nine months EndedSeptember 30,
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Pre-Tax MarginPre-Tax Margin
TME 3Q07
Total Revenue 19,699Less: Special Revenue (45)Plus: Fresh Start Adj. 186
Total Adjusted Revenue 19,840
Total Expenses 18,575Plus: Special Expenses 50Less: Fresh Start Adj. (174)
Total Adjusted Expenses 18,451
Operating Earnings 1,389
Non-Operating Expenses 430Less: Special Non-Operating Gain 22
Total Adj. Non-Operating Expenses 452
Adjusted Pre-Tax Earnings 937
Pre-Tax Earning Margin 4.7%
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