C LIMATE C HANGE AND A RMED C ONFLICT : H OT AND C OLD W ARS Jim Lee, American University, 2009 jlee@american.edu Inventory of Conflict and Environment.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARMED CONFLICT: HOT AND COLD WARS

Jim Lee, American University, 2009jlee@american.edu

Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE)http://www.american.edu/ted/

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BORDER DISPUTES

“Italy and Switzerland are planning to redraw their shared alpine border, as global warming is melting the glaciers that originally guided the line.”

  Michael Marshall, “Climate changes

Europe's borders – and the world's”, New Scientist Online, March, 2009.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: STRUCTURES AND BEHAVIORSClimate Change Structures * Sustained patterns * Other variables * TriggersConflict Behaviors * Scarcity * Abundance * Sovereignty

IPCC CLIMATE MODEL REGIONS

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100

POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (SIPRI)

FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (DOD)

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: NEW AND OLD TENSION BELTS

HOT AND COLD WARSHot Wars

War of ContractionLivelihood conflict

Ancient ConflictDeveloping Countries

Cold WarsWar of Expansion

Militarized conflictNew Conflict

Developed Countries

SIX SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT

The End of the Ice AgeWhere Have the Tropical Forests

Gone?The Great World Desert and

Water WarsProtein and Livelihood Deficits in

AfricaCentral Asia is Heating UpRising Tides Don’t Lift All Ships

Why No Pessimism in Climate Change Forecasts?

Winners and Losers: Is Climate Change Good for Me?

The Climate as War: Environmental Modification Treaty Updates

The Political Dimensions of The Political Dimensions of Climate Change and EquityClimate Change and Equity

COMING RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT

James R. Lee, “Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars”, Routledge Press, August 2009

http://www.routledge.com/books/Climate-Change-and-Armed-Conflict-isbn9780415778695