Transcript
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Bullseye Report
Weekly Overview
Authored by:
Juanis G. Barredo
VP; Chief Technical Analyst
COL Financial Group Inc.
(632) 636-5411
Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.comDisclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Dept as of
the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational
purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.
Philippine Equity Research
Oct 13, 2014
WEEKS HIGLIGHTS The Philippines PSEi lost 79-pts WoW (-1.1%) as resistance and
pressure from other markets weighed in
Average Daily Value for the week picked slowed to P8.9-B from
P11.1-B the week previous
Net foreign flows were negative showing outflows of P8.4-B
compared with P1.1-B inflows the week previous
The PSEi fell back to its Sept 15 low and has broken its 32-day
Moving Average in the process, consigned it to a short term
reactive phase. With other markets on a heavier corrective streak,
it may put added pressure into the PSEi and force it to back of
towards it 65-day (7,075) or even the 130-day (6,908) Moving
Average if the reactive drive intensifies. MACD readings concurwith these suggestions as it does point to ongoing momentum
weakness. This recommends some profit taking in stronger issues
breaking short term averages and lightening upon those whose
medium term support structures have been broken.
US and European markets showed heavy corrections last week
and could still earmark some reactive or consolidation movements
this week, hopefully showing some oversold rallies. We did notice
some key support breaks which could drive a more entrenched
corrective period into the short termforcing a sell into rallies
into these markets
Focus ItemsHighlight Page
Philippines : Weekly Stats 2
Philippines : PSEi & Peso 3
Tech Map: Some key stocks and trend calls 4
US and Europe: In review 5Asia: In review 6
Currencies & Commodities: In review 7
Issue Last Wk Current Wk Chg Wk Chg % YTD %
Philippines 7,247 7,167 (79.68) (1.10) 21.69
Peso-$ 44.420 44.760 0.340 0.77 0.82
DJIA 17,010 16,544 (465.59) (2.74) (0.20)
SP500 1,968 1,906 (61.77) (3.14) 3.13
Nasdaq 4,476 4,276 (199.38) (4.45) 2.39
England 6,528 6,340 (187.94) (2.88) (6.06)Nikkei 15,709 15,301 (408.10) (2.60) (6.08)
Hong Kong 23,065 23,089 23.98 0.10 (0.93)
China 2,364 2,375 10.67 0.45 12.22
US 30yr Bond 138.53 140.60 2.07 1.49 10.40
10-Yr Yield 24.470 23.070 (1.400) (5.72) (23.76)
Dollar Indx 86.810 86.060 (0.75) (0.86) 7.19
Gold 1,191.10 1,223.30 32.20 2.70 1.54
Oil 89.71 85.52 (4.19) (4.67) (13.35)
GTX 4,403.13 4,315.90 (87.23) (1.98) (10.63)
mailto:Juanis.barredo@citiseconline.commailto:Juanis.barredo@citiseconline.com8/10/2019 Bullseye Oct 13, 2014
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Philippines: Weekly Stats*Bullseye --- Page 2
*Source: PSE (PE Ratios are
estimated using four-quarter
trailing financial data)
Net Foreign Flows (in Billions PHP)
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Philippines: PSEi & PesoBullseye --- Page 3
Recommendation: Take some profits; watch stops
Support: 7,0876,936 Resistance: 7,403 - 7,550
The PSEi was down 79-pts WoW at 7,117 (-1.1%) pressured
by global corrections and the proximity of its previous high
A break in its short term up trendline may drive more
pressure and keep the corrective stance open
Medium term support is placed at 7,087 followed by 6,936
while resistance is adjusted to 7,4037,550; short term
support at 7,215 was broken MACDs in both daily and weekly charts show ongoing
weakness and should prepare us for more corrective
cascades
Recommendation: Short term buy/hold Dollar
Support: 44.40 - 44.00 Resistance: 44.75- 45.00 /45.50
The Peso-$ (at P44.76) was weaker given the underlyingstrength of the US Dollar
The Peso broke above an Inverted head and Shoulders
pattern with its neckline resistance at 44.13-44.25the
break heralded a swing closer to 45.00 (hitting this target)
and could even thereafter target 45.50
This raised a short term Buy on the Dollar (sell Peso) looking
to take some profits closer to estimated resistance zones Wait for pullbacks into the Dollar for buys
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Tech Map
BLOOM ABS AC ORE AEV ANI
FPH ANS AGI PCOR DAVIN BHI
GTCAP AP ALI PIP EMP COAL
BDO APC PSE FDC COSCO
BPI AT* RCB HOUSE CPG
CEB AUB ROCK LC DMPL
DNL BEL RWM MMI ELI
EDC CAL SCC* RRHI EW
FGEN CHIB SGI FOOD
JFC CNPF SM GLOLPZ DD SMC* OV
LR DIZ STI PGOLD
MCP DMC TA PNB
MEG EEI UBP PNX
RLC FLI VLL PX
SECB GERI PXP
SINO HLCM RFM
SMPH ICT TEL
URC JGS
LRI
LTG^
MA
MARC
MBT*
MER
MPI
MWC
MWIDE
NI
NIKL
3 (-3) 19 (-8) 45 (+9) 8 (-9) 18 (+11)
Bullseye --- Page 4
Some Key Stocks and Trend Calls
GREEN
RED
BLACK
-These issues improved their technical condition for the week
(moving to the left of their column category on the Tech Map)
-These issues regressed on their technical condition for the week
(moving to the right of their column category on the Tech Map)-These issues carried the same technical condition for the week
(standing on the same column category on the Tech Map)
Legend: (Note: Trends are cast in the short term)
Up trends:These issues show continuing if not strong up trends much of which
seem to be technically stable and open to trading buys if risk-reward
measures are appealing.
Up trends needy of reactions or are reacting:
These issues show continuing up trends but a recent up stretch could
show (or is now showing) vulnerability to some profit taking and
reactive adjustments. Wait for a pullback to short term support or a
rally from support to cast fresh buy trades.
Consolidations (Sideward trends):
These issues are running through consolidation phases await key
range breaks for new trend action. Stay sidelined for now but keep
watch of these potential range breaks [~-up/down, ^-up, *-down).
Down trends needy of rallies or are rallying:
These issues show continuing declines but a recent fall off could
inspire (or is engendering) a temporary rebound wave. Lighten or sell
into rebounds to resistance for now.
Down trends:These issues show continuing if not strong down trends much of
which seem to be technically stable. Stay out for now until a better
demand pattern appears.
Stock Code Color Guide:
Total Issues (change from last week)
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US and European MarketsBullseye --- Page 5
US and Europe take a plungemore
support breaks seen last week
It was a very volatile and red week afterthe US market succumbed to heavy selling
pressure dropping the three main indices
heavily for the week: Dow (-2.7%), SP500 (-
3.1%), Nasdaq (-4.4%)
The declines were so strong that it forced
the Dow and Nasdaq below the much
followed 200-day Moving Average and the
Sp500 right on its 200-day; we also saw keybreaks from their 1.5-yr long up trendlines
These indices are not yet oversold but are
close to them and still suggest a sell into
rallies
Next Support estimates for US indices are
the ff:
Dow: (S) 16,382 - 16,333
SP500: (S) 1,904 - 1,872
Nasdaq: (S) 4,244 - 4,217
European indices also showed heavy
corrections breaking 2014 lows and
proceeding with declining trends as
pointed out by lower-highs and lower-lows;
these markets are now oversold
The US 10-yr Bond Yield proceeded to slip
along its major downward channel, coming
close to the lower end of its estimatedrangeit too is close to being oversold
* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period
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Asian MarketsBullseye --- Page 6
Asia was knocked back after seeing the rout
in the US and Europe; support breaks seen
Many Asian markets fell over afterwitnessing the large scale pullbacks into the
US and Europe, with only but a few indices
showing gains like China (+0.45%), Hong
Kong (+0.10%) and Indonesia (+0.47%)
Japan (-2.6%), Australia (-2.4%) and
Malaysia (-2%) were the hardest hit for the
week followed by S. Korea (-1.7%), Thailand
(-1.1%), the Philippines (-1.1%), India (-1%),and Singapore (-0.9%)
We did see many support breaks unfold with
some strong indices falling below short term
moving averages (16 & 32-day) and a few
even break below 65 and 130-day moving
averagesthis paints a general shift from an
up trend to at least a large sideways trends
if not already short term declines
As such we would expect more correctivechoppiness moving forward as many of
these indices would have to rebuild new
support fronts before recovering stronger
trend patternsrallies may unfold especially
from some showing oversold readings, but
until clear reversal signals can surface
rallies may be temporary as large
consolidation patterns or corrective
channels may render control for the
meantime
* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period
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Currencies & CommoditiesBullseye --- Page 7
Dollar eases from its high stretch, allows
Gold, Euro & Yen to rally; Oil plunges
The US Dollar index (86.06 -0.86% WoW)reacted after breaking a short term trendline
as it was very needy of this adjustment due
to over bought conditions; the Dollar may
consolidate near its short term averages
(85.61-64.68), using these as support
The Euro index (126.24) rallied briefly but sill
shows weakness even in an oversold rally
a sell into rallies is still offered looking at
resistance closer to 127-128.50
The Yen index (92.88) [$-107.34] showed
some rally action after the Dollar easedwe
would expect next resistance closer to 93.13
93.71 followed by 94.60
Metals staged an oversold rally as well (as
allowed by the Dollar reaction) and
maintains a sell into next resistance with
Gold next at $1240, Copper at $3.07 andSilver at $18.20
Oil proceeds to be very bearish and has
broken through a number of support points
and maintain its down trendthe
commodity did come from oversold levels
and could use some rally space as the
spread to its short term averages is far; the
16-day MA is at $90.42 and the 32-day is at
$92thus prices cannot stay too far away
from these too long (sell into rallies)
* Simple Moving Averages: 20-Period 50-Period
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