Budgets, Services, and Technology Driving Change: How Librarians, Publishers and Vendors are Moving Forward
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Charleston | 2014
Kittie HendersonVice President
Academic, Law & Public Library Markets
Budgets, Services and Technology
Driving Change: How Librarians,
Publishers and Vendors are
Moving Forward
EBSCO Overview
Table of Contents:
Library & Publisher Survey Results
Key Trends
Factors that Drive the Market
Focus on the Long Term
1…
2…
3…
4…
5…
EBSCO Overview
1
EBSCO Industries
• EBSCO was founded by the late
Elton B. Stephens in 1944
• EBSCO Industries is among Forbes Top
200 Privately Held Companies
• EBSCO generates over $2 billion in
annual sales
• J.T. Stephens is the Chairman of the Board
of EBSCO Industries, Inc.
• Tim Collins is the President of EBSCO
Industries, Inc.
EBSCO Overview
Collins is only the fourth President in
EBSCO's 70- year history
Library & Publisher
Survey Results
2
Libraries
EBSCO surveyed 200 major North A academic libraries
with whom we do business (24% responded)
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
EBSCO Survey
Libraries
Roles of those responding
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
EBSCO Survey
Director/Dean/UnivLibrarian
AUL/AssociateDirector
CollectionDevelopment
Serials or E-resource
Acquisitions
Other
34%
29%
26%
3% 5%
3%
Libraries
Number of end users per library respondent
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
EBSCO Survey
48%
23%
18%
11% > 25,000 users
15,000-25,000users
10,000-15,000users
5,000-10,000 users
Publishers
EBSCO surveyed the largest 100 publishers with whom
we do business (41% response)
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
EBSCO Survey
18%
42%
34%
6%
University Press
Society
Commercial STM
Other
Publishers
Roles of those responding
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
EBSCO Survey
47%
27%
21%
5%
Executive
Sales & Marketing
Operations
Other
Key Trends
3
The Landscape
The economic situation
Packaging content and the big deal
Usage: the key metric
Discovery
PDA/PPV
Open Access
eBooks
EBSCO’s initiatives
Economic situation improving but still tough
28%
17%
39%
17%
11%
24%
42%
24%
7%
24%
38%
31%
2%
20%
52%
26%
2%
16%
47%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Decreased more than10%
Decreased1-10%
Flat Up
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013 (Projected)
2013-2014
Past, Present, and Future
Overview of library budgets
Economic situation improving but still tough
Publishers:81% of respondents indicated their business was
beginning to recover from the economic downturn
Publisher cancellations moderating
Journal Pricing
Serials price increases vs. inflation
Annual EBSCO study of publisher prices
Annual Historical Price Analysis by Library Type (U.S. Libraries)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ARL 9.8% 8.4% 7.6% 8.5% 8.8% 8.3% 5.0% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9%
College and
University9.3% 7.9% 7.8% 8.6% 8.8% 9.9% 5.4% 5.1% 5.7% 5.5% 6.0%
Academic
Medical9.4% 8.6% 8.3% 8.8% 9.3% 9.9% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 6.1% 6.2%
Consumer Price
Index2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% 0.4% 1.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5%
Journal Pricing
Serials price increases vs. inflation
Annual EBSCO study of publisher prices
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Annual Inflation Price Increases for ARL Libraries
E-packages have smaller price increases
Evaluation of 3,000 e-packages
handled by EBSCO for 2014
EBSCO data for 2014
=6.6%
Average price increase
E-packages have smaller price increases
Average e-package price increase by publisher
EBSCO data for 2014
6.7%
6.1%
3.4%
9.6%
6.1%
5.0%
8.9%
10.6%
5.7%
6.5%
3.0%
15.2%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Publisher L (202 packages)
Publisher K (370 packages)
Publisher J (91 packages)
Publisher I (96 packages)
Publisher H (384 packages)
Publisher G (260 packages)
Publisher F (83 packages)
Publisher E (145 packages)
Publisher D (99 packages)
Publisher C (673 packages)
Publisher B (385 packages)
Publisher A (217 packages)
Expect continued pricing pressure
% of publishers likely to take the following actions
Publisher survey on pricing
91%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Increase content price Decrease content price
Expected average publisher
price increase for
2015 = 5-7%
Dealing with budget realities
% of librarians indicating they employed the
following strategies last year
Librarians’ strategies
86%
46%74%
67%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Moved to E-only (dropped P) Did not renew e-packages
Renegotiated multi-yeare-package deals
Sought alternative Open Accesscontent
Print continues to decline
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
Publishers’ print revenue this past year
28%
34%
28%
4% 3% 3%
> 10% decline
5-10% decline
1-5% decline
No change
> 1% increase
Not sure yet
EBSCO’s total revenue dispersion
by format2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Growth of e-only
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
EBSCO’s revenue dispersion by format
88%
8%
4%
16%
11%
73%
Print Print & Electronic Electronic
1999 2014
Growth of e-only
48% 52%52%College/
Univ.
48%ARL
Publishers’ e-only business this past year
22%
44%
25%
6% 3%
Individual e-journals
>10% increase
5-10% increase
1-5% increase
No change
1-5% decrease
13%
32%
28%
16%
11%
E-packages
>10% increase
5-10% increase
1-5% increase
No change
Don't know yet
Factors that Drive
the Market
4
86%
46%74%
67%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Moved to E-only (dropped P) Did not renewe-packages
Renegotiated multi-yeare-package deals
Sought alternative OpenAccess content
% of librarians indicating they employed
the following strategies last year
Librarians’ strategies
Dealing with budget realities
56% 44% 31% 27% 25%17% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
IndividualeBooks
Individuale-journal
subscriptions
eBookpackages
E-journalpackages
Full-textdatabases
Discoverysolutions
Print books(includingapprovalplans)
% of librarians indicating they are likely to
increase expenditures in the following areas
Where librarians envision spending a greater % of their budget
Planned future spending
In 2014 EBSCO handled more than 17,000
e-packages for over 4,000 customers
EBSCO’s e-package growth
E-packages and the future of the Big Deal
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
56%
Packaged
44%
Remainder
Packaged Content
as a % of EBSCO’s business
2014
The Big Deal
Publishers’ view of the future of Big Deals
Will the big deal be around in five years?
38%
44%
6% 9%
3%
Very Likely
Somewhat Likely
Unsure
Somewhat Unlikely
Very Unlikely
E-packages
Publishers’ plans
% of publishers likely to take actions in each category next year
74%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Offer smaller subset… Offer larger e-packages
E-packagesPublishers’ plans
23% 6%39%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Move to standard tieredpricing model for e-
packages
Reduce cost per unit ofe-packages
Increase cost per unit ofe-packages
% of publishers likely to take actions in each category next year
More ContentPublishers’ Content Plans
82%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Start titles Acquire titles
% of publishers likely to take the following actions next year
26%64%
2009
Serials Books
Databases10%
OU University Libraries Materials Budget
15%70%
15%
2013
Databases
Serials Books
R, Luce & K. Rupp-Serrano. “University Libraries and Big Deals”, UO, 2014
Concern over publisher
concentration
Percentage of serials budget consumed by Big Deals
25-50% of Serials Budget
> 50% of Serials Budget
< 25% of Serials Budget
39%
19%
42%
Concern over publisher
concentration
Percentage of serials budget consumed by Big Deals
St. Johns University Libraries:
11 Big Deals accounted for
70% of serials budget
Unbundling the Big Deal with Patron Driven Acquisition of eJournals, IFLA 2011
- Maureen Weicher & Tian Xiao Zhang
Gap between content included in
packages and use
20%
80%
Title Usage
Titles Used
Titles Not Used
Awash in eJournal Data: What it is, where it is, and what
can be done with it.” D. Brennan & N. Butkovich, Penn State Univ., Charleston Conf. 2013
Recent surveys show
that almost all
academic librarians
use usage statistics
to make purchasing
decisions.
EBSCO Library Collections
and Budgeting Trends Survey 2014,
EBSCO Information Services,
MPS Librarian Survey: Usage Statistics,
MPS Limited, 2010; and Renewals
2007-2011
Usage is key
Librarians’ view
% of librarians indicating a metric as important
when making content decisions
100%
57% 45% 25%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Usage Statistics CostPer Use
FacultyRecommendation
Historical PriceIncreases
Value Metrics(Ex. Impact Factor)
A key influencer of use –
discoverability
Librarians and discovery services
76%
20%
5% 10%Have a discovery service
Will purchase a discovery servicewithin a year
Currently have a plan for evaluating adiscovery service
Are planning to re-evaluate currentdiscovery service
Publishers appear to get it
Importance of initiatives to publishers over the
next 12 months
100% 98%
26%
41%
1%1% 3%
71%
60%
97%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Increasing Usage Growing Sales Improve HostingSolutions
ImplementationMobile Device
Strategies
ImplementationPDA/PPV
More Important
Less Important
43Source: Canadian Association of Research Libraries, Altmetrics in Context
http://www.carl-abrc.ca/uploads/SCC/CARL2013-altmetrics-EN-FA.pdf
AltmetricsCategories
USAGE(views, downloads)
CAPTURES(bookmarks, favorites, readers)
MENTIONS(Wikipedia, comments, blogs)
SOCIAL MEDIA(Facebook likes, shares,
tweets)
CITATIONS(Scopus, patents)
Changing the focus
COUNTERhow much your university uses the collection
Article-level metrics and
PlumX
how much the world uses your research
on metrics
Patron driven acquisition/
pay per viewLibrarians’ view
% of librarians who agree
69%
50%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
PDA/PPV in combo with journalpurchases will replace big deal
Worry PDA/PPV budget will get"eaten up" too quickly by users
Patron driven acquisition/
pay per view
45%
55% Yes
No
NoYes
Librarians’ view
Does your library currently have a PDA/PPV arrangement
where the library pays all or a portion of the cost of content
on behalf of its users?
Open Access
Librarians’ strategies
% of librarians indicating they employed the following
strategies this year
86% 46%74%
67%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Moved to E-only(dropped P)
Did not renewe-packages
Renegotiatedmulti-year
e-package deals
Sought alternativeOpen Access
content
What about Open Access?
Publishers’ plans
Yes
28%No
72%
Publishers likely to add OA titles
this year
Open Access Statistics
1 Directory of Open Access Journals
Large publishers with OA initiatives
Over 10,000 OA titles1
New titles added at the rate of 4 per day in 20131
eBooks expected to grow
Where librarians envision spending a greater % of their budgets next
year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Individual
eBooks
Individual e-
journal subscriptions
eBook
packages
E-journal
packages
Full-text
databases
Discovery
solutions
Print books
(including approval plans)
56% 44% 31%27% 25%
17% 6%
% of librarians indicating they
are likely to increase
expenditures in the following
areas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ownership(1 book/
unlimited users)
Ownership(1 book/3 users)
Ownership(1 book/1 user)
Subscription Short-term lease
100%
90%
69%74% 57%
eBooks
Librarians’ view – preferred eBook models
Which of the following purchasing
methods would you be willing to use?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ownership(Unlimited users)
Ownership(1 book/1 user)
Ownership(1 book/1 user)
Short term lease/rental
69%
66%
69%
24%
10% 6% 7%
55%
21% 27% 24% 21%
Likely
Unlikely
Not sure
eBooksModels publishers would consider
Likelihood of eBook publishers participating in
the following pricing models
Ownership(1 book/3 users)
Focus on the
Long Term
5
Financial stability with
intermediaries
Allows prompt payment for orders to be
sent to publishers according to terms
Publishers rate as important
100%
How is EBSCO navigating the
landscape?
• Focus on the long term
– A benefit of being a private family-owned company
• We believe we must provide value in the
information supply chain in three areas:
– Search, discovery and access
– Content
– Acquisition, management and evaluation
– Analytics
How is EBSCO navigating the
landscape?
• Intermediary services
• EBSCONET
– E-package Renewals
– ERM Essentials
– Usage Consolidation
– Usage Analytics (summer 2012)
• AccessNow – institutional PPV product
Acquisition, management and evaluation:
How is EBSCO navigating the
landscape?
EBSCOhost – full-text databases
eBooks on EBSCOhost
Content:
How is EBSCO navigating the
landscape?
• Search, discovery and access:
• EBSCOhost – abstract/indexing databases
(ex: CINAHL, America: History and Life, SocINDEX)
• EBSCOhost – full-text databases
(ex: Academic Search, Business Source)
• EBSCO Discovery Service
• Smartlinks technology
Charleston | 2014
Thank Youkhenderson@ebsco.com
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