Breaking Bad Equilibrium - Devops Connect 2017 RSAC
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“Breaking Bad” Equilibrium John Willis Twitter: botchagalupe GitHub: botchagalupe
• One of the founding members of “Devopsdays” • Co-author of the “Devops Handbook”. • Author of the “Introduction to Devops” on Linux Foundation edX. • Podcaster at devopscafe.org • Devops Enterprise Summit - Cofounder • Nine person in at Chef (VP of Customer Enablement) • Formally Director of Devops at Dell • Found of Socketplane (Acquired by Docker) • 10 Startups over 25 years
About Mehttps://github.com/botchagalupe/my-presentations
• Economics• Wealth• Markets• Thermodynamics
Equilibrium
• Techical Debt• Cooperation• Risk • Work Life Balance• Burnout
Equilibrium
It’s a strategy that all the players in the game can adopt and converge on, but it won’t produce a desirable outcome
for anyone.
Bad Equilibrium
False Equilibrium
False Analytics
http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps
False Analytics
http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps
Movie Fun
More Fun - Game Theory
Is a state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at
least one individual worse off.
Pareto Efficiency
A situation is inefficient if someone can be made better off even after
compensating those made worse off.
Pareto Inefficiency
A concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one
where no player has an incentive to deviate from his chosen strategy after
considering an opponent's choice.
Nash Equilibrium
Sarah
Steven
Split Steal
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Steal
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Steven
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Steal
50%
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Steven
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Nash Equilibrium
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Nick
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Why Michael Lewis?
Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original studies undoing our assumptions about the decision-making process. Their papers showed the ways in which the human mind erred, systematically,
when forced to make judgments in uncertain situations. Their work created the field of behavioral economics, revolutionized Big Data studies, advanced evidence-
based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own
work possible. Kahneman and Tversky are more responsible than anybody for the powerful trend to mistrust human intuition and defer to algorithms.
• Human Irrationality • Heuristics • System 1 (fast) • System 2 (slow) • Availability Bias • Regression to the Mean • Overconfidence • Illusion of Validity
That’s how it’s always been done
around here!
• Undesirable Outcomes• Pareto Inefficient • Nash Equilibrium• False Analytics
• Human Irrationality• Cognitive Bias• Overconfidence
Devops Bad Equilibrium
Good Opportunities…- Discontinuity- Dislocation
Breaking Bad Equilibrium
• Make work visible • Manage WIP• Manage Flow• Create high trust• Embrace failure
Devops Advanced
Good Better
Really Hard Stuff
Better Excellent
• Psychological Safety• Blamelessness • Rethink SLA’s• Increase Headcount• Increase Buffers
You are either building a learning organization…
or you will be losing to someone who is…
Andrew Clay Shafer
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