Transcript
The black hole election
Queensland Government borrowings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90$ billion
General Government Public Non-financial Corporations Total
The Government’s strongest and smartest choice?
Quiggin’s analysis of the Government’s plans
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
$ billion
Income forgone Interest saved Net impact
Labor’s fiscal strategyMost of the debt pay down occurs outside of the forward estimates
Queensland Budget forward estimatesMid Year Fiscal and Economic Review 2014-15
40
45
50
55
60
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
$ billion
Revenue
Expenses
Queensland Budget forward estimatesMid Year Fiscal and Economic Review 2014-15
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
$ billion
Net operating balance
Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Fiscal balance
Productivity Commission (2013) evidence
AER estimates of 2014 average annual power billsCustomer using 6,500 kilowatt hours of electricity per year
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000
ACT - ActewAGL
Vic - Citipower
NSW - Endeavour Energy
Tas - Aurora Energy
NSW - Ausgrid
Vic - United Energy
Qld - Energex & Ergon Energy
Vic - Jemena
Vic - Powercor
Vic - AusNet Services
NSW - Essential Energy
SA - ETSA Utilities
EY estimates of annual power bills
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
SA
Vic
Qld
NSW
EY estimates of long-run changes in power prices
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Retail Network Non-network + other
NSW (96-97 to 12-13) Qld (96-97 to 12-13) Vic (96 to 13) SA (98-99 to 10-11)
Thank youPlease feel free to get in touch and read my blog
e. gene.tunny@adepteconomics.com.au
Personal blog: queenslandeconomywatch.com
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