Beyond The Great Recession: 2020

Beyond The Great Recession: 2020

A Regional Summitfor the Communities of

South Central Pennsylvania

June 13, 2012 York Holiday Inn, York, PA

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania

Legislative sevice agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Rural Revitalization Act of 1987, amended Act 52, 2009)

Mandates•Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions.

•Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.

Population Density, 2010 (Number of Persons Per Square Land Mile)

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

1960PopulationDistribution

2010 PopulationDistributio

n

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

South Central Region is Growing

Population in South Central Pennsylvania , 1900-2030 (projected)

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

609,929671,860

712,897788,469

847,409

956,284

1,119,279

1,260,622

1,413,472

1,549,738

1,702,415

1,888,485 1,920,584

2,029,094

South Central Region’s Municipal Population 1960 to 2010

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Cities

Boroughs

Townships 1st Class

Townships 2nd Class

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Out-of-State In-Migration to andOut-Migration from South Central Pennsylvania 1991-92 to 2009-10

Data source: IRS

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

35,000

37,500

40,000

In-Migration

Out-Migration

Birth and Death Rates in South Central Pennsylvania, 1970-2010

Rate = Deaths/live births per 1,000 population Data source: PA Dept Health and U.S. Census Bureau

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Deaths

Births

2010 Death Rate = 8.8

2010 Live Birth Rate =

12.2

Municipalities with Population Decline, 2000 - 2010

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

South Central Region is Aging & Becoming More Diverse

Children & Youth and Senior Citizens in South Central Region, 1950 to 2030

(projected)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

316,628

418,891

466,400439,908 429,056

467,570494,843 482,934

519,844

87,047109,731

130,231165,145

209,836

243,598

282,079

356,626

456,893

Under 20

65 and Older

Actual Projected

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center

Minorities, 2010

White/Non-Hispanic85%

Other Races2%

Two or More Races9%

Asian12%

Black35%

Hispanic (Any Race)

42%

White/Non-Hispanic79%

Other

Races1%

Two or More

Races7%

Asian

13%

Hispanic (Any Race)

28%

Black51%

South Central Region

Pennsylvania

PennsylvaniaWhite/Non-Hispanics = 10,094,652Minorities = 2,607,727

South Central RegionWhite/Non-Hispanics = 1,600,935Minorities = 287,550

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Non-Whites

Non-Whites as Percent of Population, 1960-2010 Non-Whites by Municipality, 2010

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

7.6%9.0%

10.2%11.5%

14.6%

18.1%

3.1%3.7%

5.1%6.4%

9.1%

12.5%

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

1 Dot = 10 People

Hispanics/Latinos

Hispanics/Latinos by Municipality, 2010Hispanics/Latinos as Percent of

Population, 1980-2010

Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau

1980 1990 2000 2010

1.3%

2.0%

3.2%

5.7%

1.3%

2.2%

3.7%

6.4%

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

1 Dot = 10 People

Economic Stability and Growth

Employers and Employees in South Central Pennsylvania, 1980 to 2010

Employees Employers

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

02,5005,0007,500

10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,00027,50030,00032,50035,00037,50040,00042,50045,00047,500

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000900,000950,000

Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2001 and 2011

2nd Qt. 2001(818,034 Employees)

2nd Qt. 2011(833,413 Employees)

Retail & Wholesale

Trades17%

Health Care & Social Assistance

11%Manufacturing

20%

Finance, Real Estate, & Management

11%

Accommodation, Food Services & Entertainment

8%

Educational Services

7%

Professional & Other Services

7%

Public Admin-istration

6%

Transportation & Warehousing

5%

Construction5%

Other3%

Retail & Wholesale

Trades16%

Health Care & Social Assistance

15%

Manufacturing14%

Finance, Real Estate, & Management

11%

Accommodation, Food Services & Entertainment

9%

Educational Services

8%

Professional & Other Services

8%

Public Admin-istration

7%

Transportation & Warehousing

5%

Construction4%

Other3%

Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Percent Change in Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2nd Qt. 2001 to 2nd Qt. 2011

Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Health Care & Social

Assistance

Accommodation, Food

Services & Enter-tainment

Public Administration

EducationalServices

Transportation & Warehousing

Professional & Other

Services

Finance, Real

Estate, & Management

Retail & Wholesale

Trades

Construction Manufacturing Other-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

32.8%

16.4% 15.6% 16.0% 14.6% 13.6%

9.0%

-2.5%

-11.8%

-27.2%

-31.7%

Unemployment

First Quarter 2012 Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Average Annual Unemployment Rates, 1970-2011

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20110.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2011Pennsylvania

7.9%

2011South Central

Region7.1%

PennsylvaniaSouth Central

Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Average Wages and Salaries

Inflation Adjusted Average Wages and Salaries, 1970-2010 Average Wages and Salaries, 2010

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$25,000

$26,500

$28,000

$29,500

$31,000

$32,500

$34,000

$35,500

$37,000

$38,500

$40,000

$41,500

$43,000

$44,500

$46,000

2010Pennsylvania

$44,834

2010South Central

Region$40,646

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100

Bank Deposits, 1995-2011

Bank Deposits per Capita, June 2011

Inflation Adjusted Bank Deposits per Capita, 1995-2011

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011$5,000

$7,500

$10,000

$12,500

$15,000

$17,500

$20,000

$22,500

$25,000

$27,500

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

Data sources: FDIC and U.S. Census Bureau

Labor Force Participation(Persons 16+ Years Old)

Labor Force Participation Rate, 1970-2010

Employment: Full-/Part-Time, Year Round/Seasonal, 2010

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

57.6%59.3%

62.0% 62.8% 62.3%63.3%

65.9%

69.6%68.4%

65.3%

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

Full-Time, Year Round

(35+ Hour Week, 50+ Week Year)

61%

Full-Time, Less than

Year Round(35+ Hours Week, <50

Weeks Year)13%

Part-time, Year Round(<35 Hours Week, 50+

Weeks Year) 12%

Part-time, Less than

Year Round(<35 Hours Week, <50

Weeks Year)14%

Data sources: PA Dept. Labor & Industry and U.S. Census Bureau Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

Getting To Work

Average Commute Time to Work (in Minutes), 1990-2010

Percent of Persons Working in the Municipality Where They Live, 2006-10

1990 2000 2010

21.6 min.

25.2 min. 26.0 min.

19.4 min.

22.6 min.23.7 min.

PennsylvaniaSouth Central

Data source: 2006-2010 ACS, U.S. Census BureauData source: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

Sources of Personal Income in South Central Region, 1970 and 2010

1970$5.23 Billion ($29.41 Billion Inflation Adjusted)

2010$69.78 Billion

Wages &

Salaries80%

Divi-dends,

Interest, &

Rent12%

Transfer Pay-

ments8%

Wages & Salaries

65%

Divi-dends,

Interest, & Rent

16%

Transfer Pay-

ments19%

Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100

Slow Housing Market

New Housing Permits Issued in South Central Region

Permits Issued, 1990-2011 Permits Issued, 2011

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices),

2008-2011

Act 91 Notices per 1,000 South Central Region Homeowners *, 2008-2011

Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices) per 1,000 Homeowners* By County, 1st Quarter, 20114th Qt.

20081st Qt. 2009

2nd Qt.

2009

3rd Qt.

2009

4th Qt. 2009

1st Qt. 2010

2nd Qt.

2010

3rd Qt.

2010

4th Qt. 2010

1st Qt. 2011

5.8

10.2

9.1 9.0

10.3

8.99.7

11.1

8.08.6

*2010 Census Owner-occupied data was used in the dominator Data source: Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency

Housing Affordability: Ratio of Household Income Housing Payments, 2010

Mortgage Payer Homeowners Renters

30% or less 31% to 49% 50% or Higher

54%

20%

26%

51%

21%

27%

30% or less 31% to 49% 50% or Higher

68%

22%

10%

68%

19%

12%

South Central Pennsylvania

Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS U.S. Census Bureau

Strong Agricultural Sector

Ag sales, 2010

Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Number of Acres of Farmland, 1930-2007

1930 1935 1945 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 20070

1,500,000

3,000,000

4,500,000

6,000,000

7,500,000

9,000,000

10,500,000

12,000,000

13,500,000

15,000,000

16,500,000

18,000,000

20077,809,244

Acres

20071,639,854

Acres

Pennsylvania

South Central Region

Data sources: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Municipal Revenues

Number of South Central Municipalities with a Deficit,

2005-2010

Municipalities with Deficits, 2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

99

8475

111124

142

Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services

Municipal Tax Revenues

Inflation Adjusted Municipal Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2005-2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$251

$255$260

$250

$247

$244

$298

$307$318

$301

$303$306

South CentralPennsylvania Municipal Tax

Revenues Per capita, 2010

Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services

Adult (25+) Educational Attainment in South Central Region

% Adults with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 1990-2010

Highest Level of Adult Educational Attainment in South Central Region, 2010

High School Diploma or GED; 39.9%

No High School

Diploma; 13.0%

Some College, No Degree; 16.3%

Associate's Degree;

7.3%

Bachelor's Degree or

Higher; 23.5%

Data sources: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

1990 2000 20100.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

17.9%

22.4%

26.9%

16.1%

20.2%

23.5%

PennsylvaniaSouth Central Region

Conclusions• South Center region came through the Great

Recession less bruised than the rest of the state• Recovery from the Great Recession has been slow• Demographically South Central region is growing,

it is also young and becoming more diverse• The South Central region is not homogeneous in

terms of economy, population change, income, etc.

• South Central region does not reflect statewide conditions – good or bad.

625 Forster St, Room 902

Health and Welfare Building

Harrisburg, PA 17120(717) 787-9555

www.rural.palegislature.usBarry L. DenkDirector