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Bevorzugter Zitierstil für diesen Vortrag
Axhausen, K.W. (2015) Smart cards and social networks: Simulation and familiar strangers, presentation at the Excellence in data science, Politecnico di Torino, October 2015.
Smart cards and social networks: Results and familiar strangers
KW Axhausen IVT ETH Zürich October 2014
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Social networks: • Timo Ohnmacht • Andreas Frei • Matthias Kowald • Lijun Sun • Andreas Diekmann, ETH Zürich • Jonas Larsen, Roskilde/John Urry, Lancaster
Agent-based models • Thibaut Dubernet • Pieter Fourie
Social network generation
• Theo Arentze, TU EIndhoven
Acknowledgements
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Most of the materials and more will be in:
Kowald, M. and K.W. Axhausen (eds.) (2015) Social networks and travel behaviour, Ashgate
Further acknowledgements
5 5
Why the interest ?
6 6
An agent-based model of travel demand: e.g. Singapore
Road based – Switzerland 1950 and 2000 Sc
here
r, 20
04
8 8
Long distance journeys (100km+) in Germany, 2010‘s
Type Number/year km/journeyVacation (5 days plus) 1.0 1600Short vacation (2-4 days) 1.2 410Other journeys with overnight stays 0.3 410Day excursions 6.0 200Business trip with overnight stay 1.2 500Business trip without overnight stay 1.2 150Long-distance commuting and other trips 5.0 150
Fric
k un
d G
rimm
, 201
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Why social networks in transport/spatial planning ?
9
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Example: Number of accompanying travellers
Short vacationExcursion: nature
OtherExcursion: culture
Meeting friendsFurther education (leisure)
Garden/ cottageVoluntary work
Disco, pub, restaurant, cinemaMeeting relatives/family
Window shoppingPick up/drop off/attendance
Group/club meetingFamily duty
CemeteryActive sports
EducationLong-term shopping
Walk or strollDaily shopping
Private businessPrivate business (doctor,...
Work
3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0
Mean
Dog travelling alongOther persons travelling alongHousehold members travelling along
Axh
ause
n et
al.,
200
7
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Example: Heterogenity in choice
Location choice
• WTP • Taste • Joint choice with family, friends, persons to meet • Schedule constraints • Social constraints
For mode choice in addition
• Luggage • Company • Weather • Temperature
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Example: Residential location choice in Kt. Zürich
Variable Beta t-Test Rent/Income -5.51 *** log(m2/head) 0.98 *** Frequency weighted mean distance to friends -8.16 * Exponent (friends) 0.22 ** Mean distance to work/school -1.59 ** Exponent (distance to work) 0.37 ** Travel time to Bürkliplatz 0.02 ** log(transit accessibility) * "No car" 0.41 ** log(car accessibility) * “Car" -0.30 ** Share of equally sized HH within 1 km 0.02 * Population density within 1 km 0.01 ** Share of empty flats in municipality -0.11 N= 683, rho² = 0.2128; * > 0.1; ** > 0.05; *** > 0.01
Bel
art,
2011
Travel and social networks
13
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Benchmarking the current state
• Numbers of contacts • Distance distributions • Geographies • Frequency and mode of contact
• “Productivity” • Levels of local anomie • Levels of local trust • Level of place attachment
Empirical strategy
• Surveys of social geographies & mobility biographies • Egocentric • Snowball
• Travel diaries • One-Day • Multiple days
• With/without information about the presence of others • With/without named co-travellers, co-present persons
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Social network surveys @ IVT
• Ohnmacht: 50 egos qualitative/quantitative in Zürich
• Larsen/Urry: 24 egos qualitative/quantitative in NE England
• Frei: 300 egos quantitative in Zürich
• Kowald: snowball; 750 egos quantitative worldwide (starting with 40 egos in Kanton Zürich)(12000 alters in total) (8 day diary included)
• Kowald/Diekmann: 2000 respondents of the Swiss Environment Survey – 5 core alters
• Sun: Smart card use on busses in Singapore 16
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Biography of an architect, about thirty La
rsen
, Urr
y an
d A
xhau
sen,
200
6
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Number of contacts reported
Bars show percents
0 10 20 30 40 50
Number of contacts named
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Perc
ent
Frei
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
007
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Great circle distances between “leisure” contacts: Zürich Fr
ei a
nd A
xhau
sen,
200
7
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Great circle distances between “leisure” contacts: Snowball
log−transformed distances [km]
Freq
uenc
y
0.01 0.1 11 10 100 1000 10000
010
020
030
040
0
Dat
en: S
chne
ebal
lbef
ragu
ng IV
T, Si
ehe
Kow
ald
et a
l. 201
2
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Example of a social network geography
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Size of network geometries
95%-confidence ellipse of the social network geography
1.E10
1.E91.E81.E71.E61.E51.E41.E31.E21.E11.E0
Perc
ent
40
30
20
10
0
Frei
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
007
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Interactions by mode and distance between homes
10000.001000.00100.0010.001.000.001
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
SMS messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Email messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Phone calls/year Great circle distance [km]
Face-to-face visits/year Great circle distance [km]
Great circle distance (km)
10000.001000.00100.0010.001.000.001
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
SMS messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Email messages/year Great circle distance [km]
Phone calls/year Great circle distance [km]
Face-to-face visits/year Great circle distance [km]
Great circle distance (km)
Frei
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
007
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2010/11 Snowball survey
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Behind egos’ horizons: The connected ‘snowball’-graph
Vertices Edges Density Components Triangles
Without sociogram 6‘584 7‘349 0.000 19 0.017
With sociogram 6‘584 32‘671 0.002 19 0.518
Seed
Ego
Bridging alter
Kow
ald
and
Axh
ause
n, 2
011
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Comparisons
Transport motivated social network surveys
• East York, Ontario (Wellman, Carrasco et al.)
• Eindhoven, Netherlands (Arentze, Van der Berg)
• Concepcion, Chile (Carrasco)
• City of Zürich (Frei)
• Kanton Zürich snowball (Kowald)
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Contact “density” – shares by distance class
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Great circle distance [km]
Dens
ity
0 10 100 1000 10000
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
Great circle distance [km]
Dens
ity
0 20 40 60 80 100
00.
20.
6 ZurichEindhovenSwitzerlandConcepcionToronto
Kow
ald
et a
l., fo
rthc
omin
g
Shares of contact by mode
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●
●● ●
●
●
●
● ●
Great circle distance [km]0 1 10 100 1000 10000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●● ●
●
●●
●
Great circle distance [km]0 1 10 100 1000 10000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
●
● ● ●●
●
●●
●● ●
●●
●
●
●●
Great circle distance [km]0 1 10 100 1000 10000
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
●● ● ●
●● ●
●
●
●
Zurich
Eindhoven
Switzerland
Concepcion
Internet
Face-to-face Telephone
Kow
ald
et a
l., fo
rthc
omin
g
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Low level networks as a building block
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Smart card records as a source
Card ID,Passenger Type,Travel Mode,
BusService Numbe r,Ride Start T ime (Date),Bus Registration No.Direction
Bo arding S top ID
Alighting Stop ID,Ride Duration,Ride Distance,Fare Paid ,
MetroTransfer Numbe r,Boarding Station ID,Ride Start T ime (Date),Ö
Sun,
201
3
Arrival distribution along a line
Institutsseminar 2014
Sun,
201
3
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Number of contacts versus usage frequency Su
n et
al.,
201
3
34
Monday Su
n, 2
013
35
Tuesday Su
n, 2
013
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... Friday Su
n, 2
013
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... the weekly summary Su
n, 2
013
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A small world network in Singapore‘s busses Su
n, 2
013
• One component by Wednesday
• Diameter: 6
• Characteristic path length: 2.95 • (random: 2.63)
• Average clustering coefficient: 0.19 • (random: 4.5x10-4)
• Small-world • Watts DJ & Strogatz SH (1998) Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’networks. Nature 393:440-442.
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A small world network in Singapore‘s busses, but uneven Diagramm[degree50by50] /Users/axhausen/Desktop/ID_Home_degree/degree50by50.sav
Median of y coordinate390000.00380000.00370000.00360000.00350000.00340000.00
Med
ian
of x
coo
rdin
ate
165000.00
160000.00
155000.00
150000.00
145000.00
140000.00
135000.00
477.01+415.01 - 477.00350.51 - 415.00267.01 - 350.50<= 267.00
median degrees in quintiles
Page 2
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Integration
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Integration and future work
• Generation of artificial social networks (Arentze et al., 2012) (degree,
clustering, distances)
• Repeat of Switzerland Snowball
• Measurement of network size (leisure, work, civic engagement)
• Measurement of network dynamics (Timmerman’s ERC project, Carrasco’s Concepcion survey)
• Measurement of anomie, trust and social network geography
• Integration of network choice/decision making model (Dubernet)
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Integration, again
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Some hypotheses for travel behaviour and more
Wages Fleet comfort Housing consumption vtts et al.
Activities
Specialisation
k
vkm
pkm Tours + +
+ +
+
+ +
+ +
+ + +
+
-
- -
+
- Energy costs
+
+ -
Elasticity > 0 Elasticity < 0
+ -
Migration +
+
Professional and personal activity space
Network geography Number
of networks
Network overlap
Local anomie
-
+
+ -
- - - -
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www.ivt.ethz.ch www.matsim.org
www.futurecities.ethz.ch
Questions ?
45
Literature and references
Arentze, T.A., M. Kowald and K.W. Axhausen (2012) A method to model population-wide social networks for large scale activity-travel micro-simulations, paper presented at the 91th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., January 2012
Axhausen, K.W. (2000) Geographies of somewhere: A review of urban literature, Urban Studies, 37 (10) 1849-1864.
Axhausen, K.W. (2008) Social networks, mobility biographies and travel: survey challenges, Environment and Planning B, 35 (6) 981-996.
Axhausen, K.W. (2007) Activity spaces, biographies, social networks and their welfare gains and externalities: Some hypotheses and empirical results, Mobilities, 2 (1) 15-36.
Axhausen, K.W. and A. Frei (2007) Contacts in a shrunken world, Arbeitsbericht Verkehrs- und Raumplanung, 440, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Frei, A., K.W. Axhausen and T. Ohnmacht (2009) Mobilities and social network geography: Size and spatial dispersion – the Zürich case study results, in T. Ohnmacht, H. Maksim and M. Bergmann (eds.) Mobilities and Inequalities, 99-120, Ashgate, Farnham.
Frei, A. and K.W. Axhausen (2007) Size and structure of social netowork geographies, Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung, 439, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
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Literature and references
Dicken, P. (1998) Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy, Paul Chapman Publishing,
London. FCC (2001) Long distance telecommunication industry, FCC, Washington, D.C. Frick, R. and B. Grimm (2014) Long-distance Mobility Current Trends and Future Perspectives,
ifmo, München. Grannis, R. (1998) The importance of trivial streets: Residential streets and residential
segregation, American Journal of Sociology, 103 (6) 1530-1564. Kowald M. and K.W. Axhausen (2011) Surveying data on connected personal networks,
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung, 722, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich. Kowald, M. P. van den Berg, A. Frei, J.-A. Carrasco, T. Arentze, K.W. Axhausen, D. Mok, H.J.P.
Timmermans and B. Wellman (Forthcoming) The spatiality of personal networks in four countries: A comparative study, Journal of Transport Geography.
Larsen, J., J. Urry and K.W. Axhausen (2006) Mobilities, Networks, Geographies, Ashgate, Aldershot.
Putnam, R.D. (1999) Bowling Alone: The collapse and revival of American community, Schuster and Schuster, New York.
Schlich, R., B. Kluge, S. Lehmann und K.W. Axhausen (2002) Durchführung einer 12-wöchigen Langzeitbefragung, Stadt Region Land, 73, 141-154.
Sun, L., K.W. Axhausen, D.-H. Lee and X. Huang (2013) Understanding metropolitan patterns of daily encounters, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), 110 (34) 13774-9.
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