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DecisionsFaster

Better

Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy

June 2020Mark Zandi Chief EconomistCris deRitis Deputy Chief Economist

Moodys Analytics operates independently of the credit ratings activities of Moodys Investors Service We do not comment on credit ratings or potential rating changes and no opinion or

analysis you hear during this presentation can be assumed to reflect those of the ratings agency

2

1 Why Economics MatterCataclysmic Economic Shockhellip

June 2020 4

Pandemic Upends Global EconomyBusiness cycle status as of May 2020

Sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

Expansion

In recessionAt riskRecovery

June 2020 5

02468

101214161820

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

USCanadaGermanyAustraliaJapan

US corrected unemployment rate

US Economy Struggles MostUnemployment rate through Apr 2020

Sources National statistical bureaus NBER Moodyrsquos Analytics

June 2020 6

y=00009x-0116Rsup2=029

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Sources WHO Government sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

US

ChilePeru

Change in unemployment rate Apr 2020 to 2019Q4

Canada

SwitzerlandSweden

NetherlandsRussia

BrazilGermany

Denmark

Hong Kong

Poland

Japan

Taiwan

South Korea

Hungary

More Infections Worse DownturnConfirmed infections per mil inhabitants For countries with unemployment rate data available for Apr 2020

Infections per million inhabitants

2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

June 2020 8

Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

01020

March April May

USUKHong KongBrazil

Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

June 2020 9

US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

June 2020 10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

June 2020 11

Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

0 5 10 15 20 25

JapanUS

AustraliaSouth Korea

IndiaCanada

BrazilGermany

UKFranceChina

MexicoRussia

ItalySpain

June 2020 12

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

June 2020 14

Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

CF Consensus Forecast

CS Constant Severity

The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

Updated each month

June 2020 15

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

20 21 22 23 24

Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

US Real GDP change from start of recession

June 2020 16

Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

US Commercial property price index yr ago

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

June 2020 18

US EPI Assumptions

Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

June 2020 20

Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

0102030405060708090

03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

InvestingHiringRaising prices

Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

June 2020 21

Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

19 20 21 22 23

With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

6 How Much Structural Damage

June 2020 23

US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

Total 1509354 294 75

454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

B2B Spending

Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

Table 1

Sheet5

Table 2

Sheet3

Sheet4

June 2020 24

US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

June 2020 25

Running Out of Fiscal Space

Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

-500

50100150200250300350400450

0 50 100 150 200 250

NorwaySweden

Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

Italy

Argentina

GreeceJapan

Russia

Mexico

Spain

France

Turkey S AfricaEgypt

India BrazilGermany

ChinaUS

June 2020 26

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

Data through Mar 2020

Globalization Will Be Diminished

June 2020 27

Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

MORE INFORMATION

DecisionsFaster

Better

West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

New York Corporate-HQ+121255316537 World Trade Center 14th Floor250 Greenwich StreetNew York NY 10007USA

London+442077725454One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FAUnited Kingdom

Toronto4166812133200 Wellington Street West 15th FloorToronto ON M5V 3C7Canada

Prague+420224222929Washingtonova 17110 00 Prague 1Czech Republic

Sydney+61292708111Level 101 OConnell StreetSydney NSW 2000Australia

Singapore+65651144006 Shenton Way14-08 OUE Downtown 2Singapore 068809

Shanghai+862161010172Unit 2306 Citigroup Tower33 Huayuanshiqiao RoadPudong New Area 200120China

Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

June 2020 29

copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

  • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
  • Slide Number 2
  • 1
  • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
  • US Economy Struggles Most
  • More Infections Worse Downturn
  • 2
  • Global Businesses Re-Open
  • US Lockdown Winds Down
  • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
  • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
  • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
  • 3
  • Alternative Scenarios
  • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
  • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
  • 4
  • US EPI Assumptions
  • 5
  • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
  • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
  • 6
  • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
  • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
  • Running Out of Fiscal Space
  • Globalization Will Be Diminished
  • Slide Number 27
  • Slide Number 28
  • Slide Number 29
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    111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
    StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
    AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
    AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
    AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
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    VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
    WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
    WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
    WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
    WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
    First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
    Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
    Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
    Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
    Share of loans701249288
    Active loan count mil279121130530
    Monthly payments $ bil31202878
    Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
    First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
    Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
    Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
    Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
    Share of loans701249288
    Active loan count mil279121130530
    Monthly payments $ bil31202878
    Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
    Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
    EmploymentB2B Spending
    NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
    721Accommodation20774690445
    512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
    711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
    722Food services and drinking places120687476227
    712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
    448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
    315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
    323Printing and related support activities424738895
    482Rail transportation174538223
    481Air Transportation503337696
    Total150935429475
    454Nonstore retailers562726082
    522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
    425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
    452General merchandise stores3037824152
    321Wood product manufacturing409023420
    811Repair and maintenance1352222136
    444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
    524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
    623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
    441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
    Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
    EmploymentB2B Spending
    NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
    721Accommodation20774690445
    512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
    711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
    722Food services and drinking places120687476227
    712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
    448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
    315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
    323Printing and related support activities424738895
    482Rail transportation174538223
    481Air Transportation503337696
    Total150935429475
    454Nonstore retailers562726082
    522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
    425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
    452General merchandise stores3037824152
    321Wood product manufacturing409023420
    811Repair and maintenance1352222136
    444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
    524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
    623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
    441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

    Moodys Analytics operates independently of the credit ratings activities of Moodys Investors Service We do not comment on credit ratings or potential rating changes and no opinion or

    analysis you hear during this presentation can be assumed to reflect those of the ratings agency

    2

    1 Why Economics MatterCataclysmic Economic Shockhellip

    June 2020 4

    Pandemic Upends Global EconomyBusiness cycle status as of May 2020

    Sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

    Expansion

    In recessionAt riskRecovery

    June 2020 5

    02468

    101214161820

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    USCanadaGermanyAustraliaJapan

    US corrected unemployment rate

    US Economy Struggles MostUnemployment rate through Apr 2020

    Sources National statistical bureaus NBER Moodyrsquos Analytics

    June 2020 6

    y=00009x-0116Rsup2=029

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

    Sources WHO Government sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

    US

    ChilePeru

    Change in unemployment rate Apr 2020 to 2019Q4

    Canada

    SwitzerlandSweden

    NetherlandsRussia

    BrazilGermany

    Denmark

    Hong Kong

    Poland

    Japan

    Taiwan

    South Korea

    Hungary

    More Infections Worse DownturnConfirmed infections per mil inhabitants For countries with unemployment rate data available for Apr 2020

    Infections per million inhabitants

    2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

    June 2020 8

    Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

    -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

    01020

    March April May

    USUKHong KongBrazil

    Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

    June 2020 9

    US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

    Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

    0

    400

    800

    1200

    1600

    2000

    2400

    2800

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

    of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

    June 2020 10

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

    Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

    Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

    Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

    June 2020 11

    Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

    Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    JapanUS

    AustraliaSouth Korea

    IndiaCanada

    BrazilGermany

    UKFranceChina

    MexicoRussia

    ItalySpain

    June 2020 12

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

    Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

    hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

    Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

    3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

    June 2020 14

    Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

    S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

    S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

    S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

    S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

    S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

    S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

    S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

    S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

    CF Consensus Forecast

    CS Constant Severity

    The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

    We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

    Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

    Updated each month

    June 2020 15

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    20 21 22 23 24

    Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

    V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

    US Real GDP change from start of recession

    June 2020 16

    Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

    Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

    US Commercial property price index yr ago

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

    BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

    4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

    June 2020 18

    US EPI Assumptions

    Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

    EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

    18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

    Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

    Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

    Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

    Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

    ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

    Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

    5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

    June 2020 20

    Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

    0102030405060708090

    03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

    InvestingHiringRaising prices

    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

    June 2020 21

    Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

    17000

    18000

    19000

    20000

    21000

    19 20 21 22 23

    With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

    Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

    6 How Much Structural Damage

    June 2020 23

    US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

    NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

    721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

    Total 1509354 294 75

    454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

    B2B Spending

    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

    Table 1

    Sheet5

    Table 2

    Sheet3

    Sheet4

    June 2020 24

    US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

    Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

    hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

    June 2020 25

    Running Out of Fiscal Space

    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

    Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

    -500

    50100150200250300350400450

    0 50 100 150 200 250

    NorwaySweden

    Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

    Italy

    Argentina

    GreeceJapan

    Russia

    Mexico

    Spain

    France

    Turkey S AfricaEgypt

    India BrazilGermany

    ChinaUS

    June 2020 26

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

    Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

    Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

    Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

    Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

    Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

    Data through Mar 2020

    Globalization Will Be Diminished

    June 2020 27

    Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

    QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

    Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

    moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

    Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

    MORE INFORMATION

    DecisionsFaster

    Better

    West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

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    Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

    helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

    June 2020 29

    copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

    CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

    MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

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    CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

    All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

    NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

    Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

    securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

    Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

    Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

    MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

    MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

    • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
    • Slide Number 2
    • 1
    • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
    • US Economy Struggles Most
    • More Infections Worse Downturn
    • 2
    • Global Businesses Re-Open
    • US Lockdown Winds Down
    • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
    • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
    • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
    • 3
    • Alternative Scenarios
    • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
    • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
    • 4
    • US EPI Assumptions
    • 5
    • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
    • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
    • 6
    • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
    • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
    • Running Out of Fiscal Space
    • Globalization Will Be Diminished
    • Slide Number 27
    • Slide Number 28
    • Slide Number 29
      179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
      111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
      StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
      AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
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      WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
      WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
      WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
      WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
      First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
      Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
      Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
      Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
      Share of loans701249288
      Active loan count mil279121130530
      Monthly payments $ bil31202878
      Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
      First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
      Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
      Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
      Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
      Share of loans701249288
      Active loan count mil279121130530
      Monthly payments $ bil31202878
      Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
      Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
      EmploymentB2B Spending
      NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
      721Accommodation20774690445
      512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
      711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
      722Food services and drinking places120687476227
      712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
      448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
      315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
      323Printing and related support activities424738895
      482Rail transportation174538223
      481Air Transportation503337696
      Total150935429475
      454Nonstore retailers562726082
      522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
      425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
      452General merchandise stores3037824152
      321Wood product manufacturing409023420
      811Repair and maintenance1352222136
      444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
      524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
      623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
      441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
      Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
      EmploymentB2B Spending
      NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
      721Accommodation20774690445
      512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
      711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
      722Food services and drinking places120687476227
      712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
      448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
      315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
      323Printing and related support activities424738895
      482Rail transportation174538223
      481Air Transportation503337696
      Total150935429475
      454Nonstore retailers562726082
      522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
      425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
      452General merchandise stores3037824152
      321Wood product manufacturing409023420
      811Repair and maintenance1352222136
      444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
      524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
      623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
      441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

      1 Why Economics MatterCataclysmic Economic Shockhellip

      June 2020 4

      Pandemic Upends Global EconomyBusiness cycle status as of May 2020

      Sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

      Expansion

      In recessionAt riskRecovery

      June 2020 5

      02468

      101214161820

      07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

      USCanadaGermanyAustraliaJapan

      US corrected unemployment rate

      US Economy Struggles MostUnemployment rate through Apr 2020

      Sources National statistical bureaus NBER Moodyrsquos Analytics

      June 2020 6

      y=00009x-0116Rsup2=029

      0

      2

      4

      6

      8

      10

      12

      0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

      Sources WHO Government sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

      US

      ChilePeru

      Change in unemployment rate Apr 2020 to 2019Q4

      Canada

      SwitzerlandSweden

      NetherlandsRussia

      BrazilGermany

      Denmark

      Hong Kong

      Poland

      Japan

      Taiwan

      South Korea

      Hungary

      More Infections Worse DownturnConfirmed infections per mil inhabitants For countries with unemployment rate data available for Apr 2020

      Infections per million inhabitants

      2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

      June 2020 8

      Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

      -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

      01020

      March April May

      USUKHong KongBrazil

      Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

      June 2020 9

      US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

      Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

      0

      400

      800

      1200

      1600

      2000

      2400

      2800

      0

      5

      10

      15

      20

      25

      30

      17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

      of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

      June 2020 10

      0

      1

      2

      3

      4

      5

      6

      7

      06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

      Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

      Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

      Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

      June 2020 11

      Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

      Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

      0 5 10 15 20 25

      JapanUS

      AustraliaSouth Korea

      IndiaCanada

      BrazilGermany

      UKFranceChina

      MexicoRussia

      ItalySpain

      June 2020 12

      -2

      -1

      0

      1

      2

      3

      4

      20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

      Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

      hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

      Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

      3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

      June 2020 14

      Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

      S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

      S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

      S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

      S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

      S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

      S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

      S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

      S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

      CF Consensus Forecast

      CS Constant Severity

      The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

      We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

      Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

      Updated each month

      June 2020 15

      -15

      -10

      -5

      0

      5

      10

      15

      20

      20 21 22 23 24

      Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

      V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

      US Real GDP change from start of recession

      June 2020 16

      Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

      Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

      US Commercial property price index yr ago

      -40

      -30

      -20

      -10

      0

      10

      20

      06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

      BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

      4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

      June 2020 18

      US EPI Assumptions

      Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

      EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

      18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

      Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

      Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

      Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

      Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

      ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

      Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

      5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

      June 2020 20

      Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

      0102030405060708090

      03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

      InvestingHiringRaising prices

      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

      June 2020 21

      Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

      17000

      18000

      19000

      20000

      21000

      19 20 21 22 23

      With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

      Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

      6 How Much Structural Damage

      June 2020 23

      US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

      NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

      721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

      Total 1509354 294 75

      454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

      B2B Spending

      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

      Table 1

      Sheet5

      Table 2

      Sheet3

      Sheet4

      June 2020 24

      US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

      Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

      hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

      0

      5

      10

      15

      20

      25

      30

      35

      07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

      Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

      June 2020 25

      Running Out of Fiscal Space

      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

      Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

      -500

      50100150200250300350400450

      0 50 100 150 200 250

      NorwaySweden

      Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

      Italy

      Argentina

      GreeceJapan

      Russia

      Mexico

      Spain

      France

      Turkey S AfricaEgypt

      India BrazilGermany

      ChinaUS

      June 2020 26

      -20

      -10

      0

      10

      20

      30

      01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

      Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

      Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

      Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

      Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

      Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

      Data through Mar 2020

      Globalization Will Be Diminished

      June 2020 27

      Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

      QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

      Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

      moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

      Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

      MORE INFORMATION

      DecisionsFaster

      Better

      West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

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      Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

      helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

      June 2020 29

      copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

      CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

      MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

      ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

      CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

      All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

      NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

      Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

      securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

      Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

      Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

      MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

      MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

      • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
      • Slide Number 2
      • 1
      • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
      • US Economy Struggles Most
      • More Infections Worse Downturn
      • 2
      • Global Businesses Re-Open
      • US Lockdown Winds Down
      • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
      • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
      • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
      • 3
      • Alternative Scenarios
      • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
      • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
      • 4
      • US EPI Assumptions
      • 5
      • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
      • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
      • 6
      • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
      • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
      • Running Out of Fiscal Space
      • Globalization Will Be Diminished
      • Slide Number 27
      • Slide Number 28
      • Slide Number 29
        179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
        111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
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        TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
        UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
        VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
        VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
        WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
        WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
        WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
        WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
        First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
        Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
        Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
        Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
        Share of loans701249288
        Active loan count mil279121130530
        Monthly payments $ bil31202878
        Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
        First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
        Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
        Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
        Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
        Share of loans701249288
        Active loan count mil279121130530
        Monthly payments $ bil31202878
        Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
        Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
        EmploymentB2B Spending
        NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
        721Accommodation20774690445
        512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
        711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
        722Food services and drinking places120687476227
        712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
        448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
        315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
        323Printing and related support activities424738895
        482Rail transportation174538223
        481Air Transportation503337696
        Total150935429475
        454Nonstore retailers562726082
        522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
        425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
        452General merchandise stores3037824152
        321Wood product manufacturing409023420
        811Repair and maintenance1352222136
        444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
        524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
        623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
        441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
        Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
        EmploymentB2B Spending
        NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
        721Accommodation20774690445
        512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
        711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
        722Food services and drinking places120687476227
        712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
        448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
        315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
        323Printing and related support activities424738895
        482Rail transportation174538223
        481Air Transportation503337696
        Total150935429475
        454Nonstore retailers562726082
        522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
        425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
        452General merchandise stores3037824152
        321Wood product manufacturing409023420
        811Repair and maintenance1352222136
        444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
        524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
        623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
        441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

        June 2020 4

        Pandemic Upends Global EconomyBusiness cycle status as of May 2020

        Sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

        Expansion

        In recessionAt riskRecovery

        June 2020 5

        02468

        101214161820

        07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

        USCanadaGermanyAustraliaJapan

        US corrected unemployment rate

        US Economy Struggles MostUnemployment rate through Apr 2020

        Sources National statistical bureaus NBER Moodyrsquos Analytics

        June 2020 6

        y=00009x-0116Rsup2=029

        0

        2

        4

        6

        8

        10

        12

        0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

        Sources WHO Government sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

        US

        ChilePeru

        Change in unemployment rate Apr 2020 to 2019Q4

        Canada

        SwitzerlandSweden

        NetherlandsRussia

        BrazilGermany

        Denmark

        Hong Kong

        Poland

        Japan

        Taiwan

        South Korea

        Hungary

        More Infections Worse DownturnConfirmed infections per mil inhabitants For countries with unemployment rate data available for Apr 2020

        Infections per million inhabitants

        2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

        June 2020 8

        Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

        -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

        01020

        March April May

        USUKHong KongBrazil

        Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

        June 2020 9

        US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

        Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

        0

        400

        800

        1200

        1600

        2000

        2400

        2800

        0

        5

        10

        15

        20

        25

        30

        17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

        of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

        June 2020 10

        0

        1

        2

        3

        4

        5

        6

        7

        06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

        Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

        Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

        Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

        June 2020 11

        Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

        Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

        0 5 10 15 20 25

        JapanUS

        AustraliaSouth Korea

        IndiaCanada

        BrazilGermany

        UKFranceChina

        MexicoRussia

        ItalySpain

        June 2020 12

        -2

        -1

        0

        1

        2

        3

        4

        20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

        Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

        hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

        Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

        3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

        June 2020 14

        Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

        S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

        S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

        S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

        S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

        S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

        S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

        S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

        S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

        CF Consensus Forecast

        CS Constant Severity

        The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

        We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

        Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

        Updated each month

        June 2020 15

        -15

        -10

        -5

        0

        5

        10

        15

        20

        20 21 22 23 24

        Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

        V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

        US Real GDP change from start of recession

        June 2020 16

        Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

        Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

        US Commercial property price index yr ago

        -40

        -30

        -20

        -10

        0

        10

        20

        06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

        BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

        4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

        June 2020 18

        US EPI Assumptions

        Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

        EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

        18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

        Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

        Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

        Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

        Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

        ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

        Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

        5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

        June 2020 20

        Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

        0102030405060708090

        03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

        InvestingHiringRaising prices

        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

        June 2020 21

        Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

        17000

        18000

        19000

        20000

        21000

        19 20 21 22 23

        With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

        Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

        6 How Much Structural Damage

        June 2020 23

        US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

        NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

        721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

        Total 1509354 294 75

        454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

        B2B Spending

        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

        Table 1

        Sheet5

        Table 2

        Sheet3

        Sheet4

        June 2020 24

        US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

        Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

        hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

        0

        5

        10

        15

        20

        25

        30

        35

        07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

        Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

        June 2020 25

        Running Out of Fiscal Space

        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

        Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

        -500

        50100150200250300350400450

        0 50 100 150 200 250

        NorwaySweden

        Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

        Italy

        Argentina

        GreeceJapan

        Russia

        Mexico

        Spain

        France

        Turkey S AfricaEgypt

        India BrazilGermany

        ChinaUS

        June 2020 26

        -20

        -10

        0

        10

        20

        30

        01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

        Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

        Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

        Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

        Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

        Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

        Data through Mar 2020

        Globalization Will Be Diminished

        June 2020 27

        Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

        QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

        Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

        moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

        Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

        MORE INFORMATION

        DecisionsFaster

        Better

        West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

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        Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

        helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

        June 2020 29

        copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

        CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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        ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

        CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

        All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

        NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

        Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

        securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

        Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

        Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

        MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

        MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

        • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
        • Slide Number 2
        • 1
        • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
        • US Economy Struggles Most
        • More Infections Worse Downturn
        • 2
        • Global Businesses Re-Open
        • US Lockdown Winds Down
        • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
        • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
        • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
        • 3
        • Alternative Scenarios
        • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
        • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
        • 4
        • US EPI Assumptions
        • 5
        • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
        • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
        • 6
        • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
        • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
        • Running Out of Fiscal Space
        • Globalization Will Be Diminished
        • Slide Number 27
        • Slide Number 28
        • Slide Number 29
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          RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
          SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
          SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
          TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
          TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
          UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
          VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
          VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
          WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
          WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
          WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
          WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
          First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
          Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
          Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
          Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
          Share of loans701249288
          Active loan count mil279121130530
          Monthly payments $ bil31202878
          Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
          First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
          Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
          Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
          Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
          Share of loans701249288
          Active loan count mil279121130530
          Monthly payments $ bil31202878
          Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
          Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
          EmploymentB2B Spending
          NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
          721Accommodation20774690445
          512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
          711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
          722Food services and drinking places120687476227
          712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
          448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
          315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
          323Printing and related support activities424738895
          482Rail transportation174538223
          481Air Transportation503337696
          Total150935429475
          454Nonstore retailers562726082
          522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
          425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
          452General merchandise stores3037824152
          321Wood product manufacturing409023420
          811Repair and maintenance1352222136
          444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
          524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
          623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
          441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
          Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
          EmploymentB2B Spending
          NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
          721Accommodation20774690445
          512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
          711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
          722Food services and drinking places120687476227
          712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
          448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
          315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
          323Printing and related support activities424738895
          482Rail transportation174538223
          481Air Transportation503337696
          Total150935429475
          454Nonstore retailers562726082
          522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
          425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
          452General merchandise stores3037824152
          321Wood product manufacturing409023420
          811Repair and maintenance1352222136
          444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
          524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
          623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
          441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

          June 2020 5

          02468

          101214161820

          07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

          USCanadaGermanyAustraliaJapan

          US corrected unemployment rate

          US Economy Struggles MostUnemployment rate through Apr 2020

          Sources National statistical bureaus NBER Moodyrsquos Analytics

          June 2020 6

          y=00009x-0116Rsup2=029

          0

          2

          4

          6

          8

          10

          12

          0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

          Sources WHO Government sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

          US

          ChilePeru

          Change in unemployment rate Apr 2020 to 2019Q4

          Canada

          SwitzerlandSweden

          NetherlandsRussia

          BrazilGermany

          Denmark

          Hong Kong

          Poland

          Japan

          Taiwan

          South Korea

          Hungary

          More Infections Worse DownturnConfirmed infections per mil inhabitants For countries with unemployment rate data available for Apr 2020

          Infections per million inhabitants

          2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

          June 2020 8

          Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

          -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

          01020

          March April May

          USUKHong KongBrazil

          Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

          June 2020 9

          US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

          Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

          0

          400

          800

          1200

          1600

          2000

          2400

          2800

          0

          5

          10

          15

          20

          25

          30

          17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

          of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

          June 2020 10

          0

          1

          2

          3

          4

          5

          6

          7

          06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

          Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

          Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

          Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

          June 2020 11

          Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

          Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

          0 5 10 15 20 25

          JapanUS

          AustraliaSouth Korea

          IndiaCanada

          BrazilGermany

          UKFranceChina

          MexicoRussia

          ItalySpain

          June 2020 12

          -2

          -1

          0

          1

          2

          3

          4

          20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

          Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

          hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

          Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

          3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

          June 2020 14

          Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

          S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

          S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

          S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

          S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

          S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

          S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

          S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

          S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

          CF Consensus Forecast

          CS Constant Severity

          The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

          We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

          Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

          Updated each month

          June 2020 15

          -15

          -10

          -5

          0

          5

          10

          15

          20

          20 21 22 23 24

          Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

          V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

          US Real GDP change from start of recession

          June 2020 16

          Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

          Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

          US Commercial property price index yr ago

          -40

          -30

          -20

          -10

          0

          10

          20

          06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

          BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

          4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

          June 2020 18

          US EPI Assumptions

          Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

          EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

          18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

          Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

          Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

          Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

          Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

          ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

          Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

          5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

          June 2020 20

          Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

          0102030405060708090

          03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

          InvestingHiringRaising prices

          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

          June 2020 21

          Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

          17000

          18000

          19000

          20000

          21000

          19 20 21 22 23

          With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

          Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

          6 How Much Structural Damage

          June 2020 23

          US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

          NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

          721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

          Total 1509354 294 75

          454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

          B2B Spending

          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

          Table 1

          Sheet5

          Table 2

          Sheet3

          Sheet4

          June 2020 24

          US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

          Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

          hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

          0

          5

          10

          15

          20

          25

          30

          35

          07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

          Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

          June 2020 25

          Running Out of Fiscal Space

          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

          Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

          -500

          50100150200250300350400450

          0 50 100 150 200 250

          NorwaySweden

          Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

          Italy

          Argentina

          GreeceJapan

          Russia

          Mexico

          Spain

          France

          Turkey S AfricaEgypt

          India BrazilGermany

          ChinaUS

          June 2020 26

          -20

          -10

          0

          10

          20

          30

          01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

          Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

          Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

          Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

          Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

          Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

          Data through Mar 2020

          Globalization Will Be Diminished

          June 2020 27

          Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

          QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

          Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

          moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

          Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

          MORE INFORMATION

          DecisionsFaster

          Better

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          Prague+420224222929Washingtonova 17110 00 Prague 1Czech Republic

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          Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

          helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

          June 2020 29

          copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

          CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

          MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

          ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

          CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

          All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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          Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

          securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

          Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

          Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

          MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

          MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

          • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
          • Slide Number 2
          • 1
          • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
          • US Economy Struggles Most
          • More Infections Worse Downturn
          • 2
          • Global Businesses Re-Open
          • US Lockdown Winds Down
          • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
          • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
          • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
          • 3
          • Alternative Scenarios
          • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
          • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
          • 4
          • US EPI Assumptions
          • 5
          • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
          • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
          • 6
          • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
          • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
          • Running Out of Fiscal Space
          • Globalization Will Be Diminished
          • Slide Number 27
          • Slide Number 28
          • Slide Number 29
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            OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
            PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
            RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
            SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
            SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
            TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
            TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
            UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
            VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
            VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
            WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
            WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
            WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
            WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
            First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
            Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
            Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
            Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
            Share of loans701249288
            Active loan count mil279121130530
            Monthly payments $ bil31202878
            Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
            First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
            Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
            Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
            Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
            Share of loans701249288
            Active loan count mil279121130530
            Monthly payments $ bil31202878
            Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
            Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
            EmploymentB2B Spending
            NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
            721Accommodation20774690445
            512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
            711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
            722Food services and drinking places120687476227
            712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
            448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
            315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
            323Printing and related support activities424738895
            482Rail transportation174538223
            481Air Transportation503337696
            Total150935429475
            454Nonstore retailers562726082
            522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
            425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
            452General merchandise stores3037824152
            321Wood product manufacturing409023420
            811Repair and maintenance1352222136
            444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
            524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
            623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
            441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
            Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
            EmploymentB2B Spending
            NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
            721Accommodation20774690445
            512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
            711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
            722Food services and drinking places120687476227
            712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
            448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
            315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
            323Printing and related support activities424738895
            482Rail transportation174538223
            481Air Transportation503337696
            Total150935429475
            454Nonstore retailers562726082
            522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
            425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
            452General merchandise stores3037824152
            321Wood product manufacturing409023420
            811Repair and maintenance1352222136
            444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
            524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
            623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
            441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

            June 2020 6

            y=00009x-0116Rsup2=029

            0

            2

            4

            6

            8

            10

            12

            0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

            Sources WHO Government sources Moodyrsquos Analytics

            US

            ChilePeru

            Change in unemployment rate Apr 2020 to 2019Q4

            Canada

            SwitzerlandSweden

            NetherlandsRussia

            BrazilGermany

            Denmark

            Hong Kong

            Poland

            Japan

            Taiwan

            South Korea

            Hungary

            More Infections Worse DownturnConfirmed infections per mil inhabitants For countries with unemployment rate data available for Apr 2020

            Infections per million inhabitants

            2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

            June 2020 8

            Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

            -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

            01020

            March April May

            USUKHong KongBrazil

            Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

            June 2020 9

            US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

            Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

            0

            400

            800

            1200

            1600

            2000

            2400

            2800

            0

            5

            10

            15

            20

            25

            30

            17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

            of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

            June 2020 10

            0

            1

            2

            3

            4

            5

            6

            7

            06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

            Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

            Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

            Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

            June 2020 11

            Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

            Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

            0 5 10 15 20 25

            JapanUS

            AustraliaSouth Korea

            IndiaCanada

            BrazilGermany

            UKFranceChina

            MexicoRussia

            ItalySpain

            June 2020 12

            -2

            -1

            0

            1

            2

            3

            4

            20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

            Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

            hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

            Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

            3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

            June 2020 14

            Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

            S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

            S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

            S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

            S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

            S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

            S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

            S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

            S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

            CF Consensus Forecast

            CS Constant Severity

            The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

            We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

            Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

            Updated each month

            June 2020 15

            -15

            -10

            -5

            0

            5

            10

            15

            20

            20 21 22 23 24

            Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

            V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

            US Real GDP change from start of recession

            June 2020 16

            Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

            Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

            US Commercial property price index yr ago

            -40

            -30

            -20

            -10

            0

            10

            20

            06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

            BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

            4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

            June 2020 18

            US EPI Assumptions

            Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

            EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

            18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

            Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

            Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

            Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

            Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

            ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

            Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

            5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

            June 2020 20

            Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

            0102030405060708090

            03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

            InvestingHiringRaising prices

            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

            June 2020 21

            Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

            17000

            18000

            19000

            20000

            21000

            19 20 21 22 23

            With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

            Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

            6 How Much Structural Damage

            June 2020 23

            US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

            NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

            721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

            Total 1509354 294 75

            454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

            B2B Spending

            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

            Table 1

            Sheet5

            Table 2

            Sheet3

            Sheet4

            June 2020 24

            US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

            Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

            hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

            0

            5

            10

            15

            20

            25

            30

            35

            07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

            Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

            June 2020 25

            Running Out of Fiscal Space

            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

            Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

            -500

            50100150200250300350400450

            0 50 100 150 200 250

            NorwaySweden

            Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

            Italy

            Argentina

            GreeceJapan

            Russia

            Mexico

            Spain

            France

            Turkey S AfricaEgypt

            India BrazilGermany

            ChinaUS

            June 2020 26

            -20

            -10

            0

            10

            20

            30

            01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

            Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

            Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

            Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

            Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

            Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

            Data through Mar 2020

            Globalization Will Be Diminished

            June 2020 27

            Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

            QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

            Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

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            June 2020 29

            copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

            CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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            All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

            To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

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            Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

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            Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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            MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

            MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

            • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
            • Slide Number 2
            • 1
            • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
            • US Economy Struggles Most
            • More Infections Worse Downturn
            • 2
            • Global Businesses Re-Open
            • US Lockdown Winds Down
            • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
            • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
            • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
            • 3
            • Alternative Scenarios
            • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
            • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
            • 4
            • US EPI Assumptions
            • 5
            • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
            • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
            • 6
            • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
            • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
            • Running Out of Fiscal Space
            • Globalization Will Be Diminished
            • Slide Number 27
            • Slide Number 28
            • Slide Number 29
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              111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
              StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
              AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
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              AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
              CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
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              NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
              NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
              OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
              OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
              OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
              PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
              RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
              SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
              SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
              TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
              TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
              UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
              VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
              VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
              WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
              WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
              WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
              WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
              First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
              Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
              Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
              Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
              Share of loans701249288
              Active loan count mil279121130530
              Monthly payments $ bil31202878
              Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
              First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
              Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
              Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
              Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
              Share of loans701249288
              Active loan count mil279121130530
              Monthly payments $ bil31202878
              Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
              Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
              EmploymentB2B Spending
              NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
              721Accommodation20774690445
              512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
              711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
              722Food services and drinking places120687476227
              712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
              448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
              315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
              323Printing and related support activities424738895
              482Rail transportation174538223
              481Air Transportation503337696
              Total150935429475
              454Nonstore retailers562726082
              522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
              425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
              452General merchandise stores3037824152
              321Wood product manufacturing409023420
              811Repair and maintenance1352222136
              444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
              524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
              623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
              441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
              Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
              EmploymentB2B Spending
              NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
              721Accommodation20774690445
              512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
              711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
              722Food services and drinking places120687476227
              712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
              448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
              315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
              323Printing and related support activities424738895
              482Rail transportation174538223
              481Air Transportation503337696
              Total150935429475
              454Nonstore retailers562726082
              522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
              425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
              452General merchandise stores3037824152
              321Wood product manufacturing409023420
              811Repair and maintenance1352222136
              444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
              524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
              623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
              441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

              2 Why Economics MatterhellipBut the Recession Is Over

              June 2020 8

              Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

              -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

              01020

              March April May

              USUKHong KongBrazil

              Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

              June 2020 9

              US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

              Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

              0

              400

              800

              1200

              1600

              2000

              2400

              2800

              0

              5

              10

              15

              20

              25

              30

              17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

              of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

              June 2020 10

              0

              1

              2

              3

              4

              5

              6

              7

              06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

              Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

              Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

              Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

              June 2020 11

              Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

              Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

              0 5 10 15 20 25

              JapanUS

              AustraliaSouth Korea

              IndiaCanada

              BrazilGermany

              UKFranceChina

              MexicoRussia

              ItalySpain

              June 2020 12

              -2

              -1

              0

              1

              2

              3

              4

              20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

              Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

              hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

              Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

              3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

              June 2020 14

              Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

              S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

              S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

              S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

              S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

              S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

              S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

              S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

              S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

              CF Consensus Forecast

              CS Constant Severity

              The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

              We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

              Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

              Updated each month

              June 2020 15

              -15

              -10

              -5

              0

              5

              10

              15

              20

              20 21 22 23 24

              Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

              V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

              US Real GDP change from start of recession

              June 2020 16

              Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

              Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

              US Commercial property price index yr ago

              -40

              -30

              -20

              -10

              0

              10

              20

              06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

              BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

              4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

              June 2020 18

              US EPI Assumptions

              Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

              EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

              18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

              Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

              Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

              Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

              Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

              ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

              Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

              5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

              June 2020 20

              Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

              0102030405060708090

              03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

              InvestingHiringRaising prices

              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

              June 2020 21

              Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

              17000

              18000

              19000

              20000

              21000

              19 20 21 22 23

              With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

              Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

              6 How Much Structural Damage

              June 2020 23

              US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

              NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

              721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

              Total 1509354 294 75

              454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

              B2B Spending

              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

              Table 1

              Sheet5

              Table 2

              Sheet3

              Sheet4

              June 2020 24

              US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

              Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

              hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

              0

              5

              10

              15

              20

              25

              30

              35

              07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

              Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

              June 2020 25

              Running Out of Fiscal Space

              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

              Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

              -500

              50100150200250300350400450

              0 50 100 150 200 250

              NorwaySweden

              Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

              Italy

              Argentina

              GreeceJapan

              Russia

              Mexico

              Spain

              France

              Turkey S AfricaEgypt

              India BrazilGermany

              ChinaUS

              June 2020 26

              -20

              -10

              0

              10

              20

              30

              01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

              Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

              Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

              Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

              Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

              Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

              Data through Mar 2020

              Globalization Will Be Diminished

              June 2020 27

              Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

              QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

              Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

              moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

              Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

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              June 2020 29

              copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

              CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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              All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

              To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

              To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

              NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

              Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

              securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

              Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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              MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

              MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

              • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
              • Slide Number 2
              • 1
              • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
              • US Economy Struggles Most
              • More Infections Worse Downturn
              • 2
              • Global Businesses Re-Open
              • US Lockdown Winds Down
              • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
              • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
              • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
              • 3
              • Alternative Scenarios
              • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
              • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
              • 4
              • US EPI Assumptions
              • 5
              • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
              • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
              • 6
              • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
              • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
              • Running Out of Fiscal Space
              • Globalization Will Be Diminished
              • Slide Number 27
              • Slide Number 28
              • Slide Number 29
                179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
                NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                Share of loans701249288
                Active loan count mil279121130530
                Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                Share of loans701249288
                Active loan count mil279121130530
                Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                EmploymentB2B Spending
                NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                721Accommodation20774690445
                512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                323Printing and related support activities424738895
                482Rail transportation174538223
                481Air Transportation503337696
                Total150935429475
                454Nonstore retailers562726082
                522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                452General merchandise stores3037824152
                321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                EmploymentB2B Spending
                NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                721Accommodation20774690445
                512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                323Printing and related support activities424738895
                482Rail transportation174538223
                481Air Transportation503337696
                Total150935429475
                454Nonstore retailers562726082
                522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                452General merchandise stores3037824152
                321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                June 2020 8

                Global Businesses Re-OpenGoogle mobility for the workplace 7-day moving average 0 = pre-COVID

                -80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

                01020

                March April May

                USUKHong KongBrazil

                Sources Google Moodyrsquos Analytics

                June 2020 9

                US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

                Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

                0

                400

                800

                1200

                1600

                2000

                2400

                2800

                0

                5

                10

                15

                20

                25

                30

                17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

                of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

                June 2020 10

                0

                1

                2

                3

                4

                5

                6

                7

                06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

                Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

                Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

                Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

                June 2020 11

                Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

                0 5 10 15 20 25

                JapanUS

                AustraliaSouth Korea

                IndiaCanada

                BrazilGermany

                UKFranceChina

                MexicoRussia

                ItalySpain

                June 2020 12

                -2

                -1

                0

                1

                2

                3

                4

                20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

                Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

                hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

                Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

                3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

                June 2020 14

                Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                CF Consensus Forecast

                CS Constant Severity

                The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                Updated each month

                June 2020 15

                -15

                -10

                -5

                0

                5

                10

                15

                20

                20 21 22 23 24

                Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                US Real GDP change from start of recession

                June 2020 16

                Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                US Commercial property price index yr ago

                -40

                -30

                -20

                -10

                0

                10

                20

                06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                June 2020 18

                US EPI Assumptions

                Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                June 2020 20

                Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                0102030405060708090

                03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                InvestingHiringRaising prices

                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                June 2020 21

                Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                17000

                18000

                19000

                20000

                21000

                19 20 21 22 23

                With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                6 How Much Structural Damage

                June 2020 23

                US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                Total 1509354 294 75

                454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                B2B Spending

                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                Table 1

                Sheet5

                Table 2

                Sheet3

                Sheet4

                June 2020 24

                US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                0

                5

                10

                15

                20

                25

                30

                35

                07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                June 2020 25

                Running Out of Fiscal Space

                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                -500

                50100150200250300350400450

                0 50 100 150 200 250

                NorwaySweden

                Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                Italy

                Argentina

                GreeceJapan

                Russia

                Mexico

                Spain

                France

                Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                India BrazilGermany

                ChinaUS

                June 2020 26

                -20

                -10

                0

                10

                20

                30

                01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                Data through Mar 2020

                Globalization Will Be Diminished

                June 2020 27

                Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

                MORE INFORMATION

                DecisionsFaster

                Better

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                Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

                helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

                June 2020 29

                copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                • Slide Number 2
                • 1
                • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                • US Economy Struggles Most
                • More Infections Worse Downturn
                • 2
                • Global Businesses Re-Open
                • US Lockdown Winds Down
                • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                • 3
                • Alternative Scenarios
                • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                • 4
                • US EPI Assumptions
                • 5
                • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                • 6
                • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                • Slide Number 27
                • Slide Number 28
                • Slide Number 29
                  179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                  111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                  StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                  AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                  AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                  AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                  AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                  CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                  CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                  CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                  DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                  NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                  OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                  OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                  OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                  PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                  RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                  SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                  SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                  TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                  TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                  UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                  VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                  VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                  WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                  WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                  WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                  WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                  First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                  Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                  Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                  Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                  Share of loans701249288
                  Active loan count mil279121130530
                  Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                  Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                  First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                  Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                  Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                  Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                  Share of loans701249288
                  Active loan count mil279121130530
                  Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                  Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                  Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                  Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                  EmploymentB2B Spending
                  NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                  721Accommodation20774690445
                  512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                  711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                  722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                  712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                  448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                  315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                  323Printing and related support activities424738895
                  482Rail transportation174538223
                  481Air Transportation503337696
                  Total150935429475
                  454Nonstore retailers562726082
                  522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                  425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                  452General merchandise stores3037824152
                  321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                  811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                  444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                  524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                  623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                  441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                  Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                  Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                  Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                  Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                  EmploymentB2B Spending
                  NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                  721Accommodation20774690445
                  512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                  711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                  722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                  712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                  448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                  315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                  323Printing and related support activities424738895
                  482Rail transportation174538223
                  481Air Transportation503337696
                  Total150935429475
                  454Nonstore retailers562726082
                  522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                  425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                  452General merchandise stores3037824152
                  321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                  811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                  444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                  524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                  623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                  441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                  Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                  Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                  June 2020 9

                  US Lockdown Winds DownShare of GDP and of counties shutdown

                  Sources BEA NY Times Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  0

                  400

                  800

                  1200

                  1600

                  2000

                  2400

                  2800

                  0

                  5

                  10

                  15

                  20

                  25

                  30

                  17-Mar 24-Mar 31-Mar 7-Apr 14-Apr 21-Apr 28-Apr 5-May 12-May 19-May 26-May

                  of counties shutdown (R )Share of GDP shutdown (L)

                  June 2020 10

                  0

                  1

                  2

                  3

                  4

                  5

                  6

                  7

                  06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

                  Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

                  Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

                  Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  June 2020 11

                  Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

                  0 5 10 15 20 25

                  JapanUS

                  AustraliaSouth Korea

                  IndiaCanada

                  BrazilGermany

                  UKFranceChina

                  MexicoRussia

                  ItalySpain

                  June 2020 12

                  -2

                  -1

                  0

                  1

                  2

                  3

                  4

                  20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

                  Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

                  hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

                  Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

                  June 2020 14

                  Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                  S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                  S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                  S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                  S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                  S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                  S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                  S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                  S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                  CF Consensus Forecast

                  CS Constant Severity

                  The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                  We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                  Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                  Updated each month

                  June 2020 15

                  -15

                  -10

                  -5

                  0

                  5

                  10

                  15

                  20

                  20 21 22 23 24

                  Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                  V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  US Real GDP change from start of recession

                  June 2020 16

                  Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                  Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  US Commercial property price index yr ago

                  -40

                  -30

                  -20

                  -10

                  0

                  10

                  20

                  06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                  BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                  4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                  June 2020 18

                  US EPI Assumptions

                  Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                  EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                  18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                  Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                  Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                  Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                  Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                  ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                  Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                  5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                  June 2020 20

                  Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                  0102030405060708090

                  03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                  InvestingHiringRaising prices

                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  June 2020 21

                  Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                  17000

                  18000

                  19000

                  20000

                  21000

                  19 20 21 22 23

                  With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                  Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  6 How Much Structural Damage

                  June 2020 23

                  US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                  NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                  721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                  Total 1509354 294 75

                  454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                  Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                  B2B Spending

                  Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                  Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                  Table 1

                  Sheet5

                  Table 2

                  Sheet3

                  Sheet4

                  June 2020 24

                  US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                  Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                  0

                  5

                  10

                  15

                  20

                  25

                  30

                  35

                  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                  Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                  June 2020 25

                  Running Out of Fiscal Space

                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                  -500

                  50100150200250300350400450

                  0 50 100 150 200 250

                  NorwaySweden

                  Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                  Italy

                  Argentina

                  GreeceJapan

                  Russia

                  Mexico

                  Spain

                  France

                  Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                  India BrazilGermany

                  ChinaUS

                  June 2020 26

                  -20

                  -10

                  0

                  10

                  20

                  30

                  01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                  Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                  Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                  Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                  Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                  Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                  Data through Mar 2020

                  Globalization Will Be Diminished

                  June 2020 27

                  Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                  QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                  Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                  moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                  Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

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                  June 2020 29

                  copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                  CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                  All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                  To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                  To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                  NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                  Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                  securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                  Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                  Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                  MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                  MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                  • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                  • Slide Number 2
                  • 1
                  • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                  • US Economy Struggles Most
                  • More Infections Worse Downturn
                  • 2
                  • Global Businesses Re-Open
                  • US Lockdown Winds Down
                  • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                  • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                  • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                  • 3
                  • Alternative Scenarios
                  • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                  • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                  • 4
                  • US EPI Assumptions
                  • 5
                  • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                  • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                  • 6
                  • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                  • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                  • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                  • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                  • Slide Number 27
                  • Slide Number 28
                  • Slide Number 29
                    179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                    111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                    StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                    AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                    AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                    AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                    AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                    CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                    CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                    CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                    DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                    NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                    OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                    OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                    OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                    PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                    RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                    SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                    SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                    TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                    TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                    UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                    VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                    VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                    WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                    WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                    WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                    WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                    First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                    Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                    Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                    Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                    Share of loans701249288
                    Active loan count mil279121130530
                    Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                    Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                    First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                    Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                    Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                    Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                    Share of loans701249288
                    Active loan count mil279121130530
                    Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                    Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                    Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                    EmploymentB2B Spending
                    NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                    721Accommodation20774690445
                    512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                    711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                    722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                    712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                    448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                    315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                    323Printing and related support activities424738895
                    482Rail transportation174538223
                    481Air Transportation503337696
                    Total150935429475
                    454Nonstore retailers562726082
                    522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                    425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                    452General merchandise stores3037824152
                    321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                    811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                    444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                    524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                    623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                    441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                    Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                    EmploymentB2B Spending
                    NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                    721Accommodation20774690445
                    512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                    711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                    722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                    712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                    448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                    315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                    323Printing and related support activities424738895
                    482Rail transportation174538223
                    481Air Transportation503337696
                    Total150935429475
                    454Nonstore retailers562726082
                    522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                    425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                    452General merchandise stores3037824152
                    321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                    811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                    444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                    524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                    623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                    441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                    June 2020 10

                    0

                    1

                    2

                    3

                    4

                    5

                    6

                    7

                    06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

                    Credit facilities Repos MBS and Agency Treasuries Other

                    Central Banks Erect a FirewallAssets held outright on the Federal Reserversquos balance sheet $ tril

                    Sources Federal Reserve Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    June 2020 11

                    Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

                    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

                    0 5 10 15 20 25

                    JapanUS

                    AustraliaSouth Korea

                    IndiaCanada

                    BrazilGermany

                    UKFranceChina

                    MexicoRussia

                    ItalySpain

                    June 2020 12

                    -2

                    -1

                    0

                    1

                    2

                    3

                    4

                    20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

                    Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

                    hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

                    Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

                    June 2020 14

                    Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                    S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                    S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                    S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                    S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                    S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                    S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                    S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                    S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                    CF Consensus Forecast

                    CS Constant Severity

                    The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                    We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                    Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                    Updated each month

                    June 2020 15

                    -15

                    -10

                    -5

                    0

                    5

                    10

                    15

                    20

                    20 21 22 23 24

                    Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                    V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    US Real GDP change from start of recession

                    June 2020 16

                    Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                    Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    US Commercial property price index yr ago

                    -40

                    -30

                    -20

                    -10

                    0

                    10

                    20

                    06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                    BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                    4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                    June 2020 18

                    US EPI Assumptions

                    Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                    EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                    18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                    Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                    Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                    Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                    Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                    ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                    Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                    5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                    June 2020 20

                    Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                    0102030405060708090

                    03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                    InvestingHiringRaising prices

                    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    June 2020 21

                    Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                    17000

                    18000

                    19000

                    20000

                    21000

                    19 20 21 22 23

                    With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                    Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    6 How Much Structural Damage

                    June 2020 23

                    US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                    NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                    721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                    Total 1509354 294 75

                    454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                    B2B Spending

                    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                    Table 1

                    Sheet5

                    Table 2

                    Sheet3

                    Sheet4

                    June 2020 24

                    US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                    Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                    0

                    5

                    10

                    15

                    20

                    25

                    30

                    35

                    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                    Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                    June 2020 25

                    Running Out of Fiscal Space

                    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                    -500

                    50100150200250300350400450

                    0 50 100 150 200 250

                    NorwaySweden

                    Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                    Italy

                    Argentina

                    GreeceJapan

                    Russia

                    Mexico

                    Spain

                    France

                    Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                    India BrazilGermany

                    ChinaUS

                    June 2020 26

                    -20

                    -10

                    0

                    10

                    20

                    30

                    01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                    Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                    Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                    Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                    Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                    Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                    Data through Mar 2020

                    Globalization Will Be Diminished

                    June 2020 27

                    Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                    QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                    Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                    moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                    Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

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                    June 2020 29

                    copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                    CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                    All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                    Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                    securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                    Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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                    MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                    MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                    • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                    • Slide Number 2
                    • 1
                    • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                    • US Economy Struggles Most
                    • More Infections Worse Downturn
                    • 2
                    • Global Businesses Re-Open
                    • US Lockdown Winds Down
                    • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                    • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                    • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                    • 3
                    • Alternative Scenarios
                    • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                    • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                    • 4
                    • US EPI Assumptions
                    • 5
                    • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                    • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                    • 6
                    • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                    • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                    • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                    • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                    • Slide Number 27
                    • Slide Number 28
                    • Slide Number 29
                      179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                      111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                      StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                      AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                      AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                      AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                      AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                      CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                      CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                      CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                      DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                      NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                      OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                      OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                      OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                      PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                      RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                      SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                      SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                      TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                      TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                      UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                      VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                      VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                      WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                      WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                      WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                      WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                      First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                      Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                      Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                      Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                      Share of loans701249288
                      Active loan count mil279121130530
                      Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                      Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                      First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                      Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                      Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                      Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                      Share of loans701249288
                      Active loan count mil279121130530
                      Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                      Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                      Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                      EmploymentB2B Spending
                      NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                      721Accommodation20774690445
                      512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                      711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                      722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                      712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                      448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                      315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                      323Printing and related support activities424738895
                      482Rail transportation174538223
                      481Air Transportation503337696
                      Total150935429475
                      454Nonstore retailers562726082
                      522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                      425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                      452General merchandise stores3037824152
                      321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                      811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                      444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                      524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                      623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                      441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                      Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                      EmploymentB2B Spending
                      NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                      721Accommodation20774690445
                      512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                      711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                      722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                      712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                      448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                      315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                      323Printing and related support activities424738895
                      482Rail transportation174538223
                      481Air Transportation503337696
                      Total150935429475
                      454Nonstore retailers562726082
                      522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                      425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                      452General merchandise stores3037824152
                      321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                      811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                      444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                      524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                      623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                      441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                      June 2020 11

                      Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip

                      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      Fiscal support as of Apr 2020 of 2019 GDP

                      0 5 10 15 20 25

                      JapanUS

                      AustraliaSouth Korea

                      IndiaCanada

                      BrazilGermany

                      UKFranceChina

                      MexicoRussia

                      ItalySpain

                      June 2020 12

                      -2

                      -1

                      0

                      1

                      2

                      3

                      4

                      20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

                      Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

                      hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

                      Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

                      June 2020 14

                      Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                      S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                      S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                      S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                      S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                      S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                      S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                      S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                      S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                      CF Consensus Forecast

                      CS Constant Severity

                      The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                      We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                      Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                      Updated each month

                      June 2020 15

                      -15

                      -10

                      -5

                      0

                      5

                      10

                      15

                      20

                      20 21 22 23 24

                      Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                      V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      US Real GDP change from start of recession

                      June 2020 16

                      Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                      Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      US Commercial property price index yr ago

                      -40

                      -30

                      -20

                      -10

                      0

                      10

                      20

                      06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                      BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                      4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                      June 2020 18

                      US EPI Assumptions

                      Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                      EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                      18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                      Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                      Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                      Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                      Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                      ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                      Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                      5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                      June 2020 20

                      Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                      0102030405060708090

                      03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                      InvestingHiringRaising prices

                      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      June 2020 21

                      Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                      17000

                      18000

                      19000

                      20000

                      21000

                      19 20 21 22 23

                      With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                      Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      6 How Much Structural Damage

                      June 2020 23

                      US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                      NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                      721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                      Total 1509354 294 75

                      454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                      B2B Spending

                      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                      Table 1

                      Sheet5

                      Table 2

                      Sheet3

                      Sheet4

                      June 2020 24

                      US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                      Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                      0

                      5

                      10

                      15

                      20

                      25

                      30

                      35

                      07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                      Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                      June 2020 25

                      Running Out of Fiscal Space

                      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                      -500

                      50100150200250300350400450

                      0 50 100 150 200 250

                      NorwaySweden

                      Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                      Italy

                      Argentina

                      GreeceJapan

                      Russia

                      Mexico

                      Spain

                      France

                      Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                      India BrazilGermany

                      ChinaUS

                      June 2020 26

                      -20

                      -10

                      0

                      10

                      20

                      30

                      01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                      Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                      Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                      Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                      Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                      Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                      Data through Mar 2020

                      Globalization Will Be Diminished

                      June 2020 27

                      Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                      QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                      Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                      moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

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                      June 2020 29

                      copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                      CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                      All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                      NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                      Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                      securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                      Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                      Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                      MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                      MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                      • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                      • Slide Number 2
                      • 1
                      • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                      • US Economy Struggles Most
                      • More Infections Worse Downturn
                      • 2
                      • Global Businesses Re-Open
                      • US Lockdown Winds Down
                      • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                      • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                      • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                      • 3
                      • Alternative Scenarios
                      • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                      • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                      • 4
                      • US EPI Assumptions
                      • 5
                      • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                      • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                      • 6
                      • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                      • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                      • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                      • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                      • Slide Number 27
                      • Slide Number 28
                      • Slide Number 29
                        179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                        111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                        StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                        AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                        AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                        AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                        AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                        CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                        CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                        CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                        DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
                        DE158347704073776100501793804291888602866791775945163153363137221113039331170003070878292305848130936115532934959739633168553424447116281218626461264542126333933736110120718850095989198942450887027054807102887337788184248493215617341084972588714894273211698522435757229811543319631387454107543404691058991335435063692012207207134438613543004691485338856519532434335593661419851097768740286159119581349660401857575162573413295025254619677755769032716778386037558083718925368831775001668954104080730286917643814884016378319275600143908163890378571260337964042494633414462054950420804290336514354358826962213026002268
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                        NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                        OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                        OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                        OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                        PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                        RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                        SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                        SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                        TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                        TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                        UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                        VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                        VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                        WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                        WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                        WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                        WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                        First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                        Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                        Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                        Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                        Share of loans701249288
                        Active loan count mil279121130530
                        Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                        Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                        First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                        Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                        Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                        Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                        Share of loans701249288
                        Active loan count mil279121130530
                        Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                        Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                        Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                        EmploymentB2B Spending
                        NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                        721Accommodation20774690445
                        512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                        711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                        722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                        712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                        448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                        315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                        323Printing and related support activities424738895
                        482Rail transportation174538223
                        481Air Transportation503337696
                        Total150935429475
                        454Nonstore retailers562726082
                        522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                        425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                        452General merchandise stores3037824152
                        321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                        811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                        444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                        524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                        623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                        441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                        Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                        EmploymentB2B Spending
                        NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                        721Accommodation20774690445
                        512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                        711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                        722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                        712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                        448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                        315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                        323Printing and related support activities424738895
                        482Rail transportation174538223
                        481Air Transportation503337696
                        Total150935429475
                        454Nonstore retailers562726082
                        522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                        425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                        452General merchandise stores3037824152
                        321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                        811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                        444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                        524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                        623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                        441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                        June 2020 12

                        -2

                        -1

                        0

                        1

                        2

                        3

                        4

                        20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4

                        Rental and interest income Dividend Income Proprietors incomeWage income Pass-through limitation easing Expanded UI benefitsEconomic Impact Payments Automatic stabilizers Disposable income

                        hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)US Personal income $ tril SAAR change from 2019Q4

                        Sources BEA CBO Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

                        June 2020 14

                        Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                        S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                        S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                        S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                        S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                        S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                        S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                        S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                        S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                        CF Consensus Forecast

                        CS Constant Severity

                        The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                        We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                        Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                        Updated each month

                        June 2020 15

                        -15

                        -10

                        -5

                        0

                        5

                        10

                        15

                        20

                        20 21 22 23 24

                        Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                        V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        US Real GDP change from start of recession

                        June 2020 16

                        Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                        Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        US Commercial property price index yr ago

                        -40

                        -30

                        -20

                        -10

                        0

                        10

                        20

                        06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                        BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                        4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                        June 2020 18

                        US EPI Assumptions

                        Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                        EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                        18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                        Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                        Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                        Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                        Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                        ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                        Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                        5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                        June 2020 20

                        Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                        0102030405060708090

                        03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                        InvestingHiringRaising prices

                        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        June 2020 21

                        Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                        17000

                        18000

                        19000

                        20000

                        21000

                        19 20 21 22 23

                        With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                        Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        6 How Much Structural Damage

                        June 2020 23

                        US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                        NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                        721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                        Total 1509354 294 75

                        454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                        B2B Spending

                        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                        Table 1

                        Sheet5

                        Table 2

                        Sheet3

                        Sheet4

                        June 2020 24

                        US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                        Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                        0

                        5

                        10

                        15

                        20

                        25

                        30

                        35

                        07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                        Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                        June 2020 25

                        Running Out of Fiscal Space

                        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                        -500

                        50100150200250300350400450

                        0 50 100 150 200 250

                        NorwaySweden

                        Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                        Italy

                        Argentina

                        GreeceJapan

                        Russia

                        Mexico

                        Spain

                        France

                        Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                        India BrazilGermany

                        ChinaUS

                        June 2020 26

                        -20

                        -10

                        0

                        10

                        20

                        30

                        01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                        Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                        Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                        Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                        Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                        Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                        Data through Mar 2020

                        Globalization Will Be Diminished

                        June 2020 27

                        Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                        QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                        Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                        moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                        Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

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                        June 2020 29

                        copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                        CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                        All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

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                        Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

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                        Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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                        MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                        MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                        • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                        • Slide Number 2
                        • 1
                        • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                        • US Economy Struggles Most
                        • More Infections Worse Downturn
                        • 2
                        • Global Businesses Re-Open
                        • US Lockdown Winds Down
                        • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                        • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                        • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                        • 3
                        • Alternative Scenarios
                        • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                        • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                        • 4
                        • US EPI Assumptions
                        • 5
                        • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                        • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                        • 6
                        • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                        • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                        • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                        • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                        • Slide Number 27
                        • Slide Number 28
                        • Slide Number 29
                          179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                          111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                          StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                          AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                          AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                          AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                          AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                          CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                          CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                          CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                          DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
                          DE158347704073776100501793804291888602866791775945163153363137221113039331170003070878292305848130936115532934959739633168553424447116281218626461264542126333933736110120718850095989198942450887027054807102887337788184248493215617341084972588714894273211698522435757229811543319631387454107543404691058991335435063692012207207134438613543004691485338856519532434335593661419851097768740286159119581349660401857575162573413295025254619677755769032716778386037558083718925368831775001668954104080730286917643814884016378319275600143908163890378571260337964042494633414462054950420804290336514354358826962213026002268
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                          GA24340381037267593264350284317445004923749767650551424388185533408496215785484939381411835058411012285445179332188119091282030117194241098120875645190039124173373782986821389288147000415324077600503615499258126105177659996655120751554144217230905119754135288176157107712436634290455014941819611289461634894419162916135432941291711804145953267254082353495855185712501167681248693741527246035258377850557001862946597709267273609481756322605942291351366821542958742407316945444273362989692332791317770202189158148590996244436539592501411499729140830633621230129608279158383061288537512996461060021146102043671676755959337894234107521141656851403576503176261085950336361023983781176402524092776137265087810312593551308353463210938881034856360781997407447885001432766211286262428713049912463890147495105307652867629147191836068683
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                          NM7376761091235352443373089936313159826576413547671511067102782413464701324308478473494368833270137632408133227834051789774558758793214117065305403122531536575320730515720625179519062484679302313971668912193866799124657604199561311671592286387348638186618213818661601524069317619293279688902911581248176293114826356529201354810982717177351715291445775961342155213894298673681855487404236037235410015915376434934273616323368519301196101090147126558220100434548181720704749145015342476102123739835296164600590121926338113601483632546203690612739251883641333511201236929416810902622483137731187100972117700290156393115434014094851223349534724143969004115800710139
                          NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
                          NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                          OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                          OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                          OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                          PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                          RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                          SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                          SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                          TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                          TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                          UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                          VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                          VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                          WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                          WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                          WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                          WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                          First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                          Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                          Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                          Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                          Share of loans701249288
                          Active loan count mil279121130530
                          Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                          Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                          First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                          Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                          Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                          Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                          Share of loans701249288
                          Active loan count mil279121130530
                          Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                          Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                          Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                          EmploymentB2B Spending
                          NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                          721Accommodation20774690445
                          512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                          711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                          722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                          712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                          448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                          315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                          323Printing and related support activities424738895
                          482Rail transportation174538223
                          481Air Transportation503337696
                          Total150935429475
                          454Nonstore retailers562726082
                          522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                          425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                          452General merchandise stores3037824152
                          321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                          811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                          444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                          524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                          623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                          441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                          Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                          EmploymentB2B Spending
                          NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                          721Accommodation20774690445
                          512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                          711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                          722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                          712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                          448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                          315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                          323Printing and related support activities424738895
                          482Rail transportation174538223
                          481Air Transportation503337696
                          Total150935429475
                          454Nonstore retailers562726082
                          522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                          425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                          452General merchandise stores3037824152
                          321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                          811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                          444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                          524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                          623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                          441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                          3 Why Economics MatterAlternative Paths

                          June 2020 14

                          Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                          S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                          S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                          S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                          S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                          S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                          S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                          S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                          S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                          CF Consensus Forecast

                          CS Constant Severity

                          The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                          We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                          Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                          Updated each month

                          June 2020 15

                          -15

                          -10

                          -5

                          0

                          5

                          10

                          15

                          20

                          20 21 22 23 24

                          Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                          V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          US Real GDP change from start of recession

                          June 2020 16

                          Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                          Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          US Commercial property price index yr ago

                          -40

                          -30

                          -20

                          -10

                          0

                          10

                          20

                          06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                          BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                          4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                          June 2020 18

                          US EPI Assumptions

                          Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                          EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                          18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                          Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                          Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                          Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                          Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                          ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                          Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                          5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                          June 2020 20

                          Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                          0102030405060708090

                          03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                          InvestingHiringRaising prices

                          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          June 2020 21

                          Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                          17000

                          18000

                          19000

                          20000

                          21000

                          19 20 21 22 23

                          With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                          Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          6 How Much Structural Damage

                          June 2020 23

                          US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                          NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                          721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                          Total 1509354 294 75

                          454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                          B2B Spending

                          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                          Table 1

                          Sheet5

                          Table 2

                          Sheet3

                          Sheet4

                          June 2020 24

                          US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                          Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                          0

                          5

                          10

                          15

                          20

                          25

                          30

                          35

                          07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                          Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                          June 2020 25

                          Running Out of Fiscal Space

                          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                          -500

                          50100150200250300350400450

                          0 50 100 150 200 250

                          NorwaySweden

                          Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                          Italy

                          Argentina

                          GreeceJapan

                          Russia

                          Mexico

                          Spain

                          France

                          Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                          India BrazilGermany

                          ChinaUS

                          June 2020 26

                          -20

                          -10

                          0

                          10

                          20

                          30

                          01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                          Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                          Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                          Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                          Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                          Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                          Data through Mar 2020

                          Globalization Will Be Diminished

                          June 2020 27

                          Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                          June 2020 29

                          copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                          CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                          Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                          securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                          Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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                          MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                          MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                          • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                          • Slide Number 2
                          • 1
                          • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                          • US Economy Struggles Most
                          • More Infections Worse Downturn
                          • 2
                          • Global Businesses Re-Open
                          • US Lockdown Winds Down
                          • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                          • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                          • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                          • 3
                          • Alternative Scenarios
                          • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                          • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                          • 4
                          • US EPI Assumptions
                          • 5
                          • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                          • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                          • 6
                          • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                          • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                          • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                          • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                          • Slide Number 27
                          • Slide Number 28
                          • Slide Number 29
                            179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                            111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                            StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                            AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                            AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                            AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                            AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                            CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                            CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                            CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                            DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                            NM7376761091235352443373089936313159826576413547671511067102782413464701324308478473494368833270137632408133227834051789774558758793214117065305403122531536575320730515720625179519062484679302313971668912193866799124657604199561311671592286387348638186618213818661601524069317619293279688902911581248176293114826356529201354810982717177351715291445775961342155213894298673681855487404236037235410015915376434934273616323368519301196101090147126558220100434548181720704749145015342476102123739835296164600590121926338113601483632546203690612739251883641333511201236929416810902622483137731187100972117700290156393115434014094851223349534724143969004115800710139
                            NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
                            NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                            OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                            OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                            OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                            PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                            RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                            SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                            SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                            TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                            TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                            UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                            VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                            VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                            WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                            WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                            WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                            WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                            First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                            Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                            Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                            Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                            Share of loans701249288
                            Active loan count mil279121130530
                            Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                            Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                            First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                            Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                            Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                            Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                            Share of loans701249288
                            Active loan count mil279121130530
                            Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                            Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                            Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                            EmploymentB2B Spending
                            NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                            721Accommodation20774690445
                            512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                            711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                            722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                            712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                            448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                            315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                            323Printing and related support activities424738895
                            482Rail transportation174538223
                            481Air Transportation503337696
                            Total150935429475
                            454Nonstore retailers562726082
                            522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                            425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                            452General merchandise stores3037824152
                            321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                            811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                            444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                            524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                            623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                            441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                            Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                            EmploymentB2B Spending
                            NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                            721Accommodation20774690445
                            512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                            711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                            722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                            712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                            448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                            315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                            323Printing and related support activities424738895
                            482Rail transportation174538223
                            481Air Transportation503337696
                            Total150935429475
                            454Nonstore retailers562726082
                            522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                            425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                            452General merchandise stores3037824152
                            321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                            811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                            444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                            524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                            623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                            441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                            June 2020 14

                            Alternative ScenariosS0 Upside (4th Percentile)

                            S1 Upside (10th Percentile)

                            S2 Downside (75th Percentile)

                            S3 Downside (90th Percentile)

                            S4 Downside (96th Percentile)

                            S5 Slower-Trend (Narrative)

                            S6 Stagflation (Narrative)

                            S7 Next Cycle Recession (Narrative US Only)

                            S8 Low Oil Price (Narrative)

                            CF Consensus Forecast

                            CS Constant Severity

                            The baseline forecast (5050 probability) is the ldquomost likely outcomerdquo based on current conditions and our view of where the economy is headed

                            We run multiple simulations to develop a probability distribution of outcomes ranking by unemployment and identifying percentiles

                            Scenario Assumptions and Narratives are fully documented

                            Updated each month

                            June 2020 15

                            -15

                            -10

                            -5

                            0

                            5

                            10

                            15

                            20

                            20 21 22 23 24

                            Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                            V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            US Real GDP change from start of recession

                            June 2020 16

                            Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                            Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            US Commercial property price index yr ago

                            -40

                            -30

                            -20

                            -10

                            0

                            10

                            20

                            06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                            BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                            4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                            June 2020 18

                            US EPI Assumptions

                            Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                            EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                            18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                            Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                            Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                            Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                            Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                            ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                            Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                            5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                            June 2020 20

                            Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                            0102030405060708090

                            03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                            InvestingHiringRaising prices

                            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            June 2020 21

                            Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                            17000

                            18000

                            19000

                            20000

                            21000

                            19 20 21 22 23

                            With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                            Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            6 How Much Structural Damage

                            June 2020 23

                            US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                            NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                            721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                            Total 1509354 294 75

                            454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                            B2B Spending

                            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                            Table 1

                            Sheet5

                            Table 2

                            Sheet3

                            Sheet4

                            June 2020 24

                            US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                            Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                            0

                            5

                            10

                            15

                            20

                            25

                            30

                            35

                            07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                            Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                            June 2020 25

                            Running Out of Fiscal Space

                            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                            -500

                            50100150200250300350400450

                            0 50 100 150 200 250

                            NorwaySweden

                            Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                            Italy

                            Argentina

                            GreeceJapan

                            Russia

                            Mexico

                            Spain

                            France

                            Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                            India BrazilGermany

                            ChinaUS

                            June 2020 26

                            -20

                            -10

                            0

                            10

                            20

                            30

                            01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                            Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                            Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                            Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                            Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                            Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                            Data through Mar 2020

                            Globalization Will Be Diminished

                            June 2020 27

                            Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                            June 2020 29

                            copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                            CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                            All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                            To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                            To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                            Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                            securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                            Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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                            MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                            MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                            • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                            • Slide Number 2
                            • 1
                            • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                            • US Economy Struggles Most
                            • More Infections Worse Downturn
                            • 2
                            • Global Businesses Re-Open
                            • US Lockdown Winds Down
                            • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                            • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                            • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                            • 3
                            • Alternative Scenarios
                            • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                            • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                            • 4
                            • US EPI Assumptions
                            • 5
                            • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                            • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                            • 6
                            • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                            • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                            • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                            • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                            • Slide Number 27
                            • Slide Number 28
                            • Slide Number 29
                              179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                              111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                              StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                              AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                              AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                              AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                              AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                              CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                              CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                              CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                              DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                              NM7376761091235352443373089936313159826576413547671511067102782413464701324308478473494368833270137632408133227834051789774558758793214117065305403122531536575320730515720625179519062484679302313971668912193866799124657604199561311671592286387348638186618213818661601524069317619293279688902911581248176293114826356529201354810982717177351715291445775961342155213894298673681855487404236037235410015915376434934273616323368519301196101090147126558220100434548181720704749145015342476102123739835296164600590121926338113601483632546203690612739251883641333511201236929416810902622483137731187100972117700290156393115434014094851223349534724143969004115800710139
                              NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
                              NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                              OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                              OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                              OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                              PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                              RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                              SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                              SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                              TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                              TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                              UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                              VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                              VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                              WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                              WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                              WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                              WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                              First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                              Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                              Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                              Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                              Share of loans701249288
                              Active loan count mil279121130530
                              Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                              Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                              First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                              Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                              Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                              Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                              Share of loans701249288
                              Active loan count mil279121130530
                              Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                              Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                              Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                              EmploymentB2B Spending
                              NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                              721Accommodation20774690445
                              512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                              711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                              722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                              712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                              448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                              315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                              323Printing and related support activities424738895
                              482Rail transportation174538223
                              481Air Transportation503337696
                              Total150935429475
                              454Nonstore retailers562726082
                              522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                              425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                              452General merchandise stores3037824152
                              321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                              811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                              444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                              524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                              623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                              441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                              Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                              EmploymentB2B Spending
                              NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                              721Accommodation20774690445
                              512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                              711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                              722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                              712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                              448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                              315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                              323Printing and related support activities424738895
                              482Rail transportation174538223
                              481Air Transportation503337696
                              Total150935429475
                              454Nonstore retailers562726082
                              522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                              425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                              452General merchandise stores3037824152
                              321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                              811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                              444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                              524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                              623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                              441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                              June 2020 15

                              -15

                              -10

                              -5

                              0

                              5

                              10

                              15

                              20

                              20 21 22 23 24

                              Baseline (50ile) S0 (4ile)S1 (10ile) S2 (75ile)S3 (90ile) S4 (96ile)

                              V W U L A Swoosh Recovery

                              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              US Real GDP change from start of recession

                              June 2020 16

                              Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                              Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              US Commercial property price index yr ago

                              -40

                              -30

                              -20

                              -10

                              0

                              10

                              20

                              06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                              BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                              4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                              June 2020 18

                              US EPI Assumptions

                              Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                              EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                              18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                              Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                              Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                              Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                              Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                              ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                              Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                              5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                              June 2020 20

                              Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                              0102030405060708090

                              03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                              InvestingHiringRaising prices

                              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              June 2020 21

                              Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                              17000

                              18000

                              19000

                              20000

                              21000

                              19 20 21 22 23

                              With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                              Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              6 How Much Structural Damage

                              June 2020 23

                              US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                              NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                              721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                              Total 1509354 294 75

                              454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                              B2B Spending

                              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                              Table 1

                              Sheet5

                              Table 2

                              Sheet3

                              Sheet4

                              June 2020 24

                              US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                              Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                              0

                              5

                              10

                              15

                              20

                              25

                              30

                              35

                              07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                              Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                              June 2020 25

                              Running Out of Fiscal Space

                              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                              -500

                              50100150200250300350400450

                              0 50 100 150 200 250

                              NorwaySweden

                              Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                              Italy

                              Argentina

                              GreeceJapan

                              Russia

                              Mexico

                              Spain

                              France

                              Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                              India BrazilGermany

                              ChinaUS

                              June 2020 26

                              -20

                              -10

                              0

                              10

                              20

                              30

                              01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                              Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                              Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                              Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                              Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                              Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                              Data through Mar 2020

                              Globalization Will Be Diminished

                              June 2020 27

                              Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                              June 2020 29

                              copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                              CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                              All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                              To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                              To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                              Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                              securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                              Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                              Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                              MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                              MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                              • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                              • Slide Number 2
                              • 1
                              • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                              • US Economy Struggles Most
                              • More Infections Worse Downturn
                              • 2
                              • Global Businesses Re-Open
                              • US Lockdown Winds Down
                              • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                              • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                              • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                              • 3
                              • Alternative Scenarios
                              • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                              • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                              • 4
                              • US EPI Assumptions
                              • 5
                              • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                              • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                              • 6
                              • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                              • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                              • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                              • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                              • Slide Number 27
                              • Slide Number 28
                              • Slide Number 29
                                179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                                AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                                AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                                AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                                AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                                CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                                CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                                CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                                DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
                                DE158347704073776100501793804291888602866791775945163153363137221113039331170003070878292305848130936115532934959739633168553424447116281218626461264542126333933736110120718850095989198942450887027054807102887337788184248493215617341084972588714894273211698522435757229811543319631387454107543404691058991335435063692012207207134438613543004691485338856519532434335593661419851097768740286159119581349660401857575162573413295025254619677755769032716778386037558083718925368831775001668954104080730286917643814884016378319275600143908163890378571260337964042494633414462054950420804290336514354358826962213026002268
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                                NM7376761091235352443373089936313159826576413547671511067102782413464701324308478473494368833270137632408133227834051789774558758793214117065305403122531536575320730515720625179519062484679302313971668912193866799124657604199561311671592286387348638186618213818661601524069317619293279688902911581248176293114826356529201354810982717177351715291445775961342155213894298673681855487404236037235410015915376434934273616323368519301196101090147126558220100434548181720704749145015342476102123739835296164600590121926338113601483632546203690612739251883641333511201236929416810902622483137731187100972117700290156393115434014094851223349534724143969004115800710139
                                NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
                                NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                                OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                                OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                                OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                                RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                                SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                Share of loans701249288
                                Active loan count mil279121130530
                                Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                Share of loans701249288
                                Active loan count mil279121130530
                                Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                EmploymentB2B Spending
                                NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                721Accommodation20774690445
                                512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                482Rail transportation174538223
                                481Air Transportation503337696
                                Total150935429475
                                454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                EmploymentB2B Spending
                                NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                721Accommodation20774690445
                                512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                482Rail transportation174538223
                                481Air Transportation503337696
                                Total150935429475
                                454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                June 2020 16

                                Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed

                                Sources Reis Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                US Commercial property price index yr ago

                                -40

                                -30

                                -20

                                -10

                                0

                                10

                                20

                                06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

                                BaselineScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4

                                4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                                June 2020 18

                                US EPI Assumptions

                                Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                                EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                                18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                                Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                                Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                                Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                                Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                                ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                                Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                                5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                                June 2020 20

                                Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                                0102030405060708090

                                03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                                InvestingHiringRaising prices

                                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                June 2020 21

                                Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                                17000

                                18000

                                19000

                                20000

                                21000

                                19 20 21 22 23

                                With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                                Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                6 How Much Structural Damage

                                June 2020 23

                                US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                Total 1509354 294 75

                                454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                B2B Spending

                                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                Table 1

                                Sheet5

                                Table 2

                                Sheet3

                                Sheet4

                                June 2020 24

                                US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                0

                                5

                                10

                                15

                                20

                                25

                                30

                                35

                                07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                June 2020 25

                                Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                -500

                                50100150200250300350400450

                                0 50 100 150 200 250

                                NorwaySweden

                                Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                Italy

                                Argentina

                                GreeceJapan

                                Russia

                                Mexico

                                Spain

                                France

                                Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                India BrazilGermany

                                ChinaUS

                                June 2020 26

                                -20

                                -10

                                0

                                10

                                20

                                30

                                01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                Data through Mar 2020

                                Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                June 2020 27

                                Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                June 2020 29

                                copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                                All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                                Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                • Slide Number 2
                                • 1
                                • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                • US Economy Struggles Most
                                • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                • 2
                                • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                • 3
                                • Alternative Scenarios
                                • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                • 4
                                • US EPI Assumptions
                                • 5
                                • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                • 6
                                • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                • Slide Number 27
                                • Slide Number 28
                                • Slide Number 29
                                  179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                  111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                  StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                                  AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
                                  AL119118453102234802014510501670371271404619179826708809851368132455713780940994832642528541257976041369934072607683602900905622808032428164361433440189771846762718219640443645510246162711151730112698851222895311723870711818846674890811590818416808395201454236774958467153189291323201701984915010199711891151664653693120351230441274915146167328223506087312983917869036273192641542186176833652091591579997136281239010112676102860231958044533601651138035622612949124530315157523949916795845529383368827566667755067020479770311905046981438216231918989417198804370515739228423641609404915099570994479154547512029618875771620276281077292166982458223399872589139234531763993716131392386912332290538710092842997661029024172022865397566270386726014889930162025279
                                  AR209152638407312199199742411458378652165004180910945165438927833235612707037649771032776538193167354831607547181486210052230986240512520472534122886536545225619450967632568860211730328230071675083126734469616639654622427716161202677719896571807117753608812511414862492156879019912194526516826024633429120045882015971645318391243152439958377116196291805569120441848180457643838875916207517979945931954532372105181664994072604008201607270811468366738812809616187366311030879510116929309895613647992702422235710197151176000322268143736804551177195627356075192404962831136267761333286829390861502869582834535882163839564601513799115871915309495913845158766714120944645813179434167330961436510891760017888841625977606792389276634669247501132
                                  AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                                  CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                                  CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                                  CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                                  DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
                                  DE158347704073776100501793804291888602866791775945163153363137221113039331170003070878292305848130936115532934959739633168553424447116281218626461264542126333933736110120718850095989198942450887027054807102887337788184248493215617341084972588714894273211698522435757229811543319631387454107543404691058991335435063692012207207134438613543004691485338856519532434335593661419851097768740286159119581349660401857575162573413295025254619677755769032716778386037558083718925368831775001668954104080730286917643814884016378319275600143908163890378571260337964042494633414462054950420804290336514354358826962213026002268
                                  FL889012962927614725611800891308319316355868507324365540943813470417460543318589306817533074067191319616408653303808396346569923731439567134744614123795460291043925408987593692254917340944518894291445563409122418993630111515231421679619201684216759283557808037588111768486327333436665726576582255504607921669225935051741200674156304948001461773527838172010265911736902085586131847601489991175552165267161965285975795260383993468887293287223487926513881391484959264189282501352991263337983587309171831097453247267330815908810426251753115278277196371431431775671321275700103742225576456439651211171802464421659066711849740424014133052203789108375455813731240692331744744221857209026381044371184460844081982851783507646937714121214782577850615736919356764221693159133759727212220798839781750175646511441990410674985097663043792430408845090135555
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                                  NV2885031951284897729190414795742043105765528996202471317792156313409134519983606899392545121713150634164920007450727057126748667413510872305735532414864813991956327416634320385431027668919822922435378109081918025242140491920114318557512956933437364922642800914411955291789485891857826200978130236610590482725731008181012289116020883291665770413621071033377462526941328044465541610075864011056631442072710951817998533522384332593862074049118355045282021912731386610149689410323745993361005730665429973262066568264824849809678831029146610148278143188505956544941839725501071290319007865712587733410834812211841160519833452327067185825313853411080643648480798145621976100792244879877136082434203063
                                  NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                                  OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                                  OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                                  OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                  PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                                  RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                                  SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                  SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                  TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                  TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                  UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                  VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                  VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                  WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                  WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                  WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                  WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                  First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                  Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                  Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                  Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                  Share of loans701249288
                                  Active loan count mil279121130530
                                  Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                  Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                  First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                  Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                  Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                  Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                  Share of loans701249288
                                  Active loan count mil279121130530
                                  Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                  Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                  Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                  Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                  EmploymentB2B Spending
                                  NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                  721Accommodation20774690445
                                  512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                  711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                  722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                  712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                  448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                  315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                  323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                  482Rail transportation174538223
                                  481Air Transportation503337696
                                  Total150935429475
                                  454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                  522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                  425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                  452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                  321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                  811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                  444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                  524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                  623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                  441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                  Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                  Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                  Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                  Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                  EmploymentB2B Spending
                                  NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                  721Accommodation20774690445
                                  512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                  711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                  722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                  712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                  448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                  315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                  323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                  482Rail transportation174538223
                                  481Air Transportation503337696
                                  Total150935429475
                                  454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                  522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                  425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                  452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                  321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                  811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                  444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                  524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                  623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                  441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                  Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                  Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                  4 Why Economics MatterEpidemiological Assumptions

                                  June 2020 18

                                  US EPI Assumptions

                                  Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                                  EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                                  18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                                  Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                                  Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                                  Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                                  Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                                  ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                                  Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                                  5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                                  June 2020 20

                                  Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                                  0102030405060708090

                                  03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                                  InvestingHiringRaising prices

                                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                  June 2020 21

                                  Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                                  17000

                                  18000

                                  19000

                                  20000

                                  21000

                                  19 20 21 22 23

                                  With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                                  Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                  6 How Much Structural Damage

                                  June 2020 23

                                  US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                  NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                  721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                  Total 1509354 294 75

                                  454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                  Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                  B2B Spending

                                  Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                  Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                  Table 1

                                  Sheet5

                                  Table 2

                                  Sheet3

                                  Sheet4

                                  June 2020 24

                                  US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                  Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                  hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                  0

                                  5

                                  10

                                  15

                                  20

                                  25

                                  30

                                  35

                                  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                  Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                  June 2020 25

                                  Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                  Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                  -500

                                  50100150200250300350400450

                                  0 50 100 150 200 250

                                  NorwaySweden

                                  Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                  Italy

                                  Argentina

                                  GreeceJapan

                                  Russia

                                  Mexico

                                  Spain

                                  France

                                  Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                  India BrazilGermany

                                  ChinaUS

                                  June 2020 26

                                  -20

                                  -10

                                  0

                                  10

                                  20

                                  30

                                  01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                  Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                  Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                  Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                  Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                  Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                  Data through Mar 2020

                                  Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                  June 2020 27

                                  Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                  helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

                                  June 2020 29

                                  copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                  CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                                  All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                  To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                  To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                                  Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                  securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                  Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                  Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                  MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                  MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                  • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                  • Slide Number 2
                                  • 1
                                  • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                  • US Economy Struggles Most
                                  • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                  • 2
                                  • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                  • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                  • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                  • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                  • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                  • 3
                                  • Alternative Scenarios
                                  • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                  • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                  • 4
                                  • US EPI Assumptions
                                  • 5
                                  • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                  • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                  • 6
                                  • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                  • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                  • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                  • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                  • Slide Number 27
                                  • Slide Number 28
                                  • Slide Number 29
                                    179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                    111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                    StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                                    AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
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                                    AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                                    CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                                    CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
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                                    NY242348354529813580733699205971495954766953421620220466834608370026878364346314041110811605161486302767912682958511841380092146361023910201634126337302786327508125602519414836065571017294404549995666492188070010848288656204321041368212049985565856584709981481418626387161165024618293361566542036113419233297234613064181324441764655746329688487683589351879247644347965290041425802977769023443848523700114413737468233493916502289071357336219853611141889663091153867326713713105301331614728221928656731699203182275464271801928506793759222726242806004710733201081664432188455368516541706852787701917636335477163635089867551967135383902052062425177659555719155073682523752976205571063417596300914726143402654563827391966145562178526553753562481318996467056971454511502975602452331813422795440779178468055328970025212108527711
                                    OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                                    OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                                    OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                    PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                                    RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                                    SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                    SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                    TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                    TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                    UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                    VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                    VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                    WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                    WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                    WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                    WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                    First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                    Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                    Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                    Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                    Share of loans701249288
                                    Active loan count mil279121130530
                                    Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                    Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                    First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                    Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                    Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                    Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                    Share of loans701249288
                                    Active loan count mil279121130530
                                    Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                    Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                    Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                    EmploymentB2B Spending
                                    NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                    721Accommodation20774690445
                                    512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                    711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                    722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                    712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                    448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                    315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                    323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                    482Rail transportation174538223
                                    481Air Transportation503337696
                                    Total150935429475
                                    454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                    522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                    425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                    452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                    321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                    811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                    444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                    524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                    623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                    441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                    Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                    EmploymentB2B Spending
                                    NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                    721Accommodation20774690445
                                    512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                    711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                    722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                    712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                    448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                    315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                    323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                    482Rail transportation174538223
                                    481Air Transportation503337696
                                    Total150935429475
                                    454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                    522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                    425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                    452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                    321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                    811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                    444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                    524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                    623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                    441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                    June 2020 18

                                    US EPI Assumptions

                                    Paths Current S0 S1 BASELINE S3 S4

                                    EPIDEMIOLOGICALTotal Infections (Confirmed)

                                    18 mil(22Kday) 19 mil 22 mil 24 mil 33 mil 41 mil

                                    Peak Infections Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in April Peak in June Peak in June

                                    Case Fatality 55 54 56 63 80 93

                                    Hospitalization Rate 12 10 11 12 15 20Abatement Date (lt1000 infectionsday) Abate by June Abate by June Abate by July Abate by August Abate by August

                                    Hospital Beds Large Surplus Large Surplus Surplus Small Deficit Deficit

                                    ICU Beds Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                                    Ventilators Large Surplus Surplus Small Surplus Small Deficit Large Deficit

                                    5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                                    June 2020 20

                                    Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                                    0102030405060708090

                                    03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                                    InvestingHiringRaising prices

                                    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                    June 2020 21

                                    Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                                    17000

                                    18000

                                    19000

                                    20000

                                    21000

                                    19 20 21 22 23

                                    With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                                    Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                    6 How Much Structural Damage

                                    June 2020 23

                                    US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                    NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                    721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                    Total 1509354 294 75

                                    454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                    Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                    B2B Spending

                                    Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                    Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                    Table 1

                                    Sheet5

                                    Table 2

                                    Sheet3

                                    Sheet4

                                    June 2020 24

                                    US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                    Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                    hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                    0

                                    5

                                    10

                                    15

                                    20

                                    25

                                    30

                                    35

                                    07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                    Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                    June 2020 25

                                    Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                    Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                    Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                    -500

                                    50100150200250300350400450

                                    0 50 100 150 200 250

                                    NorwaySweden

                                    Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                    Italy

                                    Argentina

                                    GreeceJapan

                                    Russia

                                    Mexico

                                    Spain

                                    France

                                    Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                    India BrazilGermany

                                    ChinaUS

                                    June 2020 26

                                    -20

                                    -10

                                    0

                                    10

                                    20

                                    30

                                    01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                    Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                    Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                    Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                    Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                    Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                    Data through Mar 2020

                                    Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                    June 2020 27

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                                    June 2020 29

                                    copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                    CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                                    CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                    All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                                    Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                    securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                    Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                    Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                    MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                    MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                    • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                    • Slide Number 2
                                    • 1
                                    • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                    • US Economy Struggles Most
                                    • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                    • 2
                                    • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                    • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                    • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                    • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                    • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                    • 3
                                    • Alternative Scenarios
                                    • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                    • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                    • 4
                                    • US EPI Assumptions
                                    • 5
                                    • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                    • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                    • 6
                                    • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                    • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                    • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                    • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                    • Slide Number 27
                                    • Slide Number 28
                                    • Slide Number 29
                                      179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                      111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                      StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                                      AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
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                                      AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                                      CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                                      CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
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                                      OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                                      OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                                      OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                      PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                                      RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                                      SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                      SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                      TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                      TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                      UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                      VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                      VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                      WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                      WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                      WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                      WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                      First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                      Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                      Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                      Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                      Share of loans701249288
                                      Active loan count mil279121130530
                                      Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                      Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                      First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                      Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                      Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                      Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                      Share of loans701249288
                                      Active loan count mil279121130530
                                      Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                      Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                      Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                      EmploymentB2B Spending
                                      NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                      721Accommodation20774690445
                                      512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                      711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                      722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                      712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                      448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                      315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                      323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                      482Rail transportation174538223
                                      481Air Transportation503337696
                                      Total150935429475
                                      454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                      522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                      425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                      452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                      321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                      811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                      444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                      524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                      623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                      441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                      Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                      EmploymentB2B Spending
                                      NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                      721Accommodation20774690445
                                      512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                      711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                      722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                      712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                      448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                      315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                      323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                      482Rail transportation174538223
                                      481Air Transportation503337696
                                      Total150935429475
                                      454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                      522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                      425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                      452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                      321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                      811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                      444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                      524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                      623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                      441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                      5 Why Economics MatterDemand-Side Cross-Currents

                                      June 2020 20

                                      Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                                      0102030405060708090

                                      03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                                      InvestingHiringRaising prices

                                      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                      June 2020 21

                                      Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                                      17000

                                      18000

                                      19000

                                      20000

                                      21000

                                      19 20 21 22 23

                                      With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                                      Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                      6 How Much Structural Damage

                                      June 2020 23

                                      US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                      NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                      721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                      Total 1509354 294 75

                                      454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                      Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                      B2B Spending

                                      Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                      Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                      Table 1

                                      Sheet5

                                      Table 2

                                      Sheet3

                                      Sheet4

                                      June 2020 24

                                      US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                      Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                      hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                      0

                                      5

                                      10

                                      15

                                      20

                                      25

                                      30

                                      35

                                      07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                      Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                      June 2020 25

                                      Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                      Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                      Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                      -500

                                      50100150200250300350400450

                                      0 50 100 150 200 250

                                      NorwaySweden

                                      Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                      Italy

                                      Argentina

                                      GreeceJapan

                                      Russia

                                      Mexico

                                      Spain

                                      France

                                      Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                      India BrazilGermany

                                      ChinaUS

                                      June 2020 26

                                      -20

                                      -10

                                      0

                                      10

                                      20

                                      30

                                      01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                      Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                      Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                      Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                      Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                      Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                      Data through Mar 2020

                                      Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                      June 2020 27

                                      Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                      June 2020 29

                                      copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                      CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                      MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                      ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                      CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                      All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                      NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                      Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                      securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                      Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                      Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                      MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                      MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                      • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                      • Slide Number 2
                                      • 1
                                      • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                      • US Economy Struggles Most
                                      • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                      • 2
                                      • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                      • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                      • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                      • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                      • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                      • 3
                                      • Alternative Scenarios
                                      • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                      • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                      • 4
                                      • US EPI Assumptions
                                      • 5
                                      • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                      • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                      • 6
                                      • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                      • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                      • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                      • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                      • Slide Number 27
                                      • Slide Number 28
                                      • Slide Number 29
                                        179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                        111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                        StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
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                                        CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
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                                        OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                                        OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                                        OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                        PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                                        RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                                        SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                        SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                        TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                        TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                        UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                        VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                        VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                        WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                        WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                        WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                        WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                        First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                        Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                        Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                        Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                        Share of loans701249288
                                        Active loan count mil279121130530
                                        Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                        Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                        First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                        Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                        Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                        Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                        Share of loans701249288
                                        Active loan count mil279121130530
                                        Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                        Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                        Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                        EmploymentB2B Spending
                                        NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                        721Accommodation20774690445
                                        512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                        711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                        722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                        712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                        448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                        315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                        323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                        482Rail transportation174538223
                                        481Air Transportation503337696
                                        Total150935429475
                                        454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                        522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                        425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                        452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                        321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                        811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                        444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                        524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                        623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                        441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                        Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                        EmploymentB2B Spending
                                        NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                        721Accommodation20774690445
                                        512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                        711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                        722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                        712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                        448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                        315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                        323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                        482Rail transportation174538223
                                        481Air Transportation503337696
                                        Total150935429475
                                        454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                        522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                        425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                        452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                        321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                        811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                        444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                        524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                        623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                        441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                        June 2020 20

                                        Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked of Moodyrsquos Analytics global bus survey respondents that arehellip

                                        0102030405060708090

                                        03 05 07 09 10 12 14 16 18

                                        InvestingHiringRaising prices

                                        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                        June 2020 21

                                        Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                                        17000

                                        18000

                                        19000

                                        20000

                                        21000

                                        19 20 21 22 23

                                        With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                                        Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                        6 How Much Structural Damage

                                        June 2020 23

                                        US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                        NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                        721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                        Total 1509354 294 75

                                        454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                        Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                        B2B Spending

                                        Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                        Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                        Table 1

                                        Sheet5

                                        Table 2

                                        Sheet3

                                        Sheet4

                                        June 2020 24

                                        US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                        Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                        hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                        0

                                        5

                                        10

                                        15

                                        20

                                        25

                                        30

                                        35

                                        07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                        Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                        June 2020 25

                                        Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                        Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                        Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                        -500

                                        50100150200250300350400450

                                        0 50 100 150 200 250

                                        NorwaySweden

                                        Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                        Italy

                                        Argentina

                                        GreeceJapan

                                        Russia

                                        Mexico

                                        Spain

                                        France

                                        Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                        India BrazilGermany

                                        ChinaUS

                                        June 2020 26

                                        -20

                                        -10

                                        0

                                        10

                                        20

                                        30

                                        01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                        Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                        Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                        Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                        Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                        Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                        Data through Mar 2020

                                        Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                        June 2020 27

                                        Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                        June 2020 29

                                        copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                        CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                        MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                        ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                        CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                        All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                        NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                        Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                        securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                        Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                        Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                        MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                        MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                        • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                        • Slide Number 2
                                        • 1
                                        • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                        • US Economy Struggles Most
                                        • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                        • 2
                                        • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                        • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                        • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                        • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                        • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                        • 3
                                        • Alternative Scenarios
                                        • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                        • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                        • 4
                                        • US EPI Assumptions
                                        • 5
                                        • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                        • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                        • 6
                                        • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                        • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                        • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                        • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                        • Slide Number 27
                                        • Slide Number 28
                                        • Slide Number 29
                                          179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                          111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                          StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
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                                          OH409233018055841890661226202923370542877885521285772134793451548571829657862272716490255670566555426807988258757709144817460171468790988500171440243870963571862612227531274599812664409195311942645076273455147562440441645566072028652946489739323838841250314797710641883529330112642127568720194180314681616954851071274563135604314133838111967514641938331443924156244338495309813350552137979266236502402982350995208813015230813196182474730664242373907667751935364919880111351461691350354431138070813083324668381209425252459240879744755435318456747827129588075917442104972396451582772167103687664553419562351853298355965442986604318986245481207144562010525006092508088178441098850251513750130001228562351757851174034679581515859630591617150861344081272453675862897312824384724222417699297375177653783511813782902174272612903165091
                                          OK86979236636624707511150762451251191155158133001338535964398747406728982059319493414706962431642956544635095767284502508881352994533242675240720821357836434424135653311402135178403748030230202020084390354943653695756682673780797823152185221333631869022626449219166934479729537262353803642729812373936113566649479749915032054328321100709953235594469711304539248015082913785588519815727344501188865723054018934023512122031018309515909310986954922361179246227301114076472284693418254115199452274204478643685673281864107341119908814187710569642473719822222234514840098141571156829834587007425246466823216930667087483552005731013219680111460794112463817440795023141845232685374677025822124020274771245986395464141792924910791326590101248
                                          OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                          PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
                                          RI13413911766577658062142415316717342232971032226354320694611257712981081783067125017073534119674724953439999277597909363692147850654093751579100064466504160009433655507534686958114888842645054834631807326721537246319069532434224924100572172490520728711626932016454426077958941536552364501152514936843712806891167219629444858924121242668816715093283293606327260004395624701026373269658124871304871529058928208100481742134027509539183374829377183324862219688621773608890663183721017124071248031905972224058151807017386845820473916105618886612825839271207161617510454160151236733442252299530209914167204290397562212831334750373
                                          SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                          SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                          TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                          TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                          UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                          VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                          VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                          WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                          WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                          WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                          WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                          First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                          Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                          Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                          Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                          Share of loans701249288
                                          Active loan count mil279121130530
                                          Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                          Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                          First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                          Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                          Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                          Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                          Share of loans701249288
                                          Active loan count mil279121130530
                                          Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                          Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                          Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                          EmploymentB2B Spending
                                          NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                          721Accommodation20774690445
                                          512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                          711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                          722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                          712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                          448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                          315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                          323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                          482Rail transportation174538223
                                          481Air Transportation503337696
                                          Total150935429475
                                          454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                          522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                          425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                          452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                          321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                          811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                          444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                          524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                          623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                          441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                          Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                          EmploymentB2B Spending
                                          NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                          721Accommodation20774690445
                                          512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                          711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                          722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                          712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                          448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                          315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                          323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                          482Rail transportation174538223
                                          481Air Transportation503337696
                                          Total150935429475
                                          454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                          522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                          425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                          452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                          321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                          811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                          444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                          524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                          623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                          441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                          June 2020 21

                                          Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal SupportUS real GDP 2012$ bil

                                          17000

                                          18000

                                          19000

                                          20000

                                          21000

                                          19 20 21 22 23

                                          With anticipated fiscal rescueWithout anticipated fiscal rescue

                                          Sources BEA Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                          6 How Much Structural Damage

                                          June 2020 23

                                          US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                          NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                          721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                          Total 1509354 294 75

                                          454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                          Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                          B2B Spending

                                          Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                          Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                          Table 1

                                          Sheet5

                                          Table 2

                                          Sheet3

                                          Sheet4

                                          June 2020 24

                                          US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                          Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                          hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                          0

                                          5

                                          10

                                          15

                                          20

                                          25

                                          30

                                          35

                                          07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                          Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                          June 2020 25

                                          Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                          Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                          Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                          -500

                                          50100150200250300350400450

                                          0 50 100 150 200 250

                                          NorwaySweden

                                          Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                          Italy

                                          Argentina

                                          GreeceJapan

                                          Russia

                                          Mexico

                                          Spain

                                          France

                                          Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                          India BrazilGermany

                                          ChinaUS

                                          June 2020 26

                                          -20

                                          -10

                                          0

                                          10

                                          20

                                          30

                                          01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                          Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                          Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                          Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                          Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                          Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                          Data through Mar 2020

                                          Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                          June 2020 27

                                          Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                          June 2020 29

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                                          CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                          MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                          ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                          CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                          All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                                          Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                          securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                          Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                          Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                          MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                          MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                          • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                          • Slide Number 2
                                          • 1
                                          • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                          • US Economy Struggles Most
                                          • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                          • 2
                                          • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                          • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                          • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                          • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                          • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                          • 3
                                          • Alternative Scenarios
                                          • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                          • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                          • 4
                                          • US EPI Assumptions
                                          • 5
                                          • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                          • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                          • 6
                                          • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                          • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                          • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                          • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                          • Slide Number 27
                                          • Slide Number 28
                                          • Slide Number 29
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                                            111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                            StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
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                                            CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
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                                            OR374754813368301075727402210383192895062948402498388904125154590217733939152052611394328173793022073015379393886679021394746346597246131518328972354330169817178405168864588005741772148356433122379218618617830602447690988807005931520016695578106422972494525578397623476154278674630062325124170333073883626886037859793023982282699484461623101647531009231835467093713229166432051415381159815166618133219102636015859739017579239138988241843985480747269051020026668785988585013087979691209893537252895179166295740260211206671417922744034576539912402568691142254908402776286089715921520127230073198513298175493101615669860249282864983849763571458911533196796833771328711113246121546533342578323001552012928411310233260217804661611161163312264232224998706436
                                            PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
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
                                            SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                            SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                            TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                            TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                            UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                            VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                            VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                            WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                            WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                            WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                            WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                            First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                            Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                            Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                            Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                            Share of loans701249288
                                            Active loan count mil279121130530
                                            Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                            Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                            First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                            Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                            Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                            Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                            Share of loans701249288
                                            Active loan count mil279121130530
                                            Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                            Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                            Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                            EmploymentB2B Spending
                                            NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                            721Accommodation20774690445
                                            512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                            711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                            722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                            712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                            448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                            315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                            323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                            482Rail transportation174538223
                                            481Air Transportation503337696
                                            Total150935429475
                                            454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                            522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                            425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                            452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                            321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                            811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                            444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                            524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                            623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                            441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                            Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                            EmploymentB2B Spending
                                            NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                            721Accommodation20774690445
                                            512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                            711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                            722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                            712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                            448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                            315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                            323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                            482Rail transportation174538223
                                            481Air Transportation503337696
                                            Total150935429475
                                            454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                            522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                            425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                            452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                            321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                            811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                            444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                            524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                            623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                            441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                            6 How Much Structural Damage

                                            June 2020 23

                                            US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                            NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                            721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                            Total 1509354 294 75

                                            454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                            Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                            B2B Spending

                                            Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                            Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                            Table 1

                                            Sheet5

                                            Table 2

                                            Sheet3

                                            Sheet4

                                            June 2020 24

                                            US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                            Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                            hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                            0

                                            5

                                            10

                                            15

                                            20

                                            25

                                            30

                                            35

                                            07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                            Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                            June 2020 25

                                            Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                            Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                            Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                            -500

                                            50100150200250300350400450

                                            0 50 100 150 200 250

                                            NorwaySweden

                                            Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                            Italy

                                            Argentina

                                            GreeceJapan

                                            Russia

                                            Mexico

                                            Spain

                                            France

                                            Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                            India BrazilGermany

                                            ChinaUS

                                            June 2020 26

                                            -20

                                            -10

                                            0

                                            10

                                            20

                                            30

                                            01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                            Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                            Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                            Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                            Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                            Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                            Data through Mar 2020

                                            Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                            June 2020 27

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                                            All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

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                                            Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                            securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                            Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

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                                            MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                            MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                            • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                            • Slide Number 2
                                            • 1
                                            • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                            • US Economy Struggles Most
                                            • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                            • 2
                                            • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                            • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                            • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                            • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                            • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                            • 3
                                            • Alternative Scenarios
                                            • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                            • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                            • 4
                                            • US EPI Assumptions
                                            • 5
                                            • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                            • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                            • 6
                                            • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                            • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                            • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                            • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                            • Slide Number 27
                                            • Slide Number 28
                                            • Slide Number 29
                                              179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                              111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                              StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
                                              AK66215560926546214701228730341846281440132220742953706723176047444602208750564770197094075633268933865179016916460191571313409742507789422617672154167321038198420234923809213521122412196355325106628201636416659623094694093342314616037085865962897617160911217065209902190436131185532027343833291212247792419130586233062223536182971681284479570268540212344643792276263991736666474053274753490076101622480247901214371602102997196862223109708001293324410249131012574123397606215423789870164086396556140167297044108755818038330452274283030249243718705597489463230362896296919508941673025296638761011969
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
                                              AZ746365943810367604851969127262975240120296935922300480531363279698711018609141461083996505247759955165220265216282829738491482883119909139456255490121371751644441149580816143281154832013330232741371410346083063465814158074567004015484665646482979581248119215483850282230430741346861070347026932226595703248448661225098022076827532319829599201947442096275609660065876401130534217272463752058649872674388214581668096932488519683615514585265945815116748310563939111089212262471176124912814965248069110807418357709391320416880695422578926588733738045291135309266913090157051161374435047144535243999212274461413162733372409528327900311842918021864755801272667613822587411854114097324527465356985937982782797124562258438896050219344226970133966623143194003151940005904
                                              CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
                                              CO22605176350409686393798310618845323602063631022962256319106621883890789322573179441548737995626404249159203789276837158311910422123640142045455974291132741836131841058676509504160511138499113747684419963066752426072418840089768229345724451210684133409911188703301803105799319451990056052613674178298854053216495449173010766268381161988037611096433636001365774412430377524412742978903071184455120182492382021040671456474629258232525193727820934729179186929417765534191213497277046195120872815361326560091984918791714487402890661908519551200961281672551236854130729105586013781221696747155883652344753209646052019776576684018945501678980110574668422502914370275530771049205765873030994230920591106580131401097724416430013252555513987288026811412207213156210290361482613318248463012075
                                              CT2418735103121230157317916541220839638613905560110624723979261919997146202902692805217040068279651032298911346653461715938321639539162962537385150260957472247020129904211264168742687125211863233182370764164501175195404554510933752427303637627085312758874781529165458775816585669796802196611382261040274928451109659214133641125755686745592559469392061103929684032152634645152663145532552838760189085005046143731197157259651844412452359982812018468659137256238905033166500729382592735359800480608184656523708612490501432220853233463198585215384436373151846312300450116586856417659402641299161969998813488533169323480997159090574102100556249017808093620191418790340925128347693235322509500126092811459584482414226194871244027506573
                                              DC74576634823000495004952727543288364481640091943871483216722419974800002840508221126150158476052251712020123622143197215171829231496251035777104411693455610956004963072841480116196517624332318881253889701224154072268601420888847567069581477068033024003353120051891984780188761533130617726146270201693311955849274312201763727489811522440149709341308467261521261297224012991411111267193125910780867730871123807459406181165153293329943441481337611176098626144589893240352658121565843196004111512980115572421121953342398103625845672129430181177
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                                              GA24340381037267593264350284317445004923749767650551424388185533408496215785484939381411835058411012285445179332188119091282030117194241098120875645190039124173373782986821389288147000415324077600503615499258126105177659996655120751554144217230905119754135288176157107712436634290455014941819611289461634894419162916135432941291711804145953267254082353495855185712501167681248693741527246035258377850557001862946597709267273609481756322605942291351366821542958742407316945444273362989692332791317770202189158148590996244436539592501411499729140830633621230129608279158383061288537512996461060021146102043671676755959337894234107521141656851403576503176261085950336361023983781176402524092776137265087810312593551308353463210938881034856360781997407447885001432766211286262428713049912463890147495105307652867629147191836068683
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
                                              PA1545795018900751314405465358914163954884752231055519088436653547761165762158021754959744349515423125451258722413345782887856746334388138583076871048165871209286749622244725336155616798263665047975090115831932141558037262347645226291910259433571766115198213424127711245422766790126264745718203887256602804205780421247015903597469662677999645851077499426584140266237494929815125818123570941011080884479478132949141653883137475013903382303322415369815137621236156244749017766183205305195125919581044898216112443351726276419022279482198556443283758827365182699002646693920890090244460420253572066912424876851818143902241090612421754577066445250684551997995499113376743811983755599741074645196321752322030561728181212331909005191378102136621892414891523166424097147279712554220669105818898064224375440859154723947295003680232
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
                                              SC1792019720192705641196726369616576498151384452460975760144378496606733801397299352591394144124882730204574876557715586176566738194671640799393290313191685165202771438075431538920368178577026860735965059823039837127822101726362013772319389561426559014935842210304321210312080483111047192269008335025864093615662105635823630693581682679315694961590378049951877990712323642330820145774516392723523028559358305280417032474599172264799491314244343884376174090239899193628329682828544481266411315366422533546644128782050396181139384714287291601130261772262390763659128568812997545623020449223310716893782749475997916358038821760888136115410532397367085795110311668446952916393428559488366957819713101243257455011048834963607303894196141366272134898376465051277
                                              SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                              TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                              TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                              UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                              VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                              VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                              WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                              WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                              WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                              WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                              First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                              Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                              Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                              Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                              Share of loans701249288
                                              Active loan count mil279121130530
                                              Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                              Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                              First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                              Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                              Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                              Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                              Share of loans701249288
                                              Active loan count mil279121130530
                                              Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                              Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                              Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                              EmploymentB2B Spending
                                              NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                              721Accommodation20774690445
                                              512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                              711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                              722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                              712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                              448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                              315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                              323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                              482Rail transportation174538223
                                              481Air Transportation503337696
                                              Total150935429475
                                              454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                              522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                              425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                              452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                              321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                              811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                              444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                              524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                              623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                              441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                              Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                              EmploymentB2B Spending
                                              NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                              721Accommodation20774690445
                                              512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                              711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                              722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                              712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                              448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                              315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                              323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                              482Rail transportation174538223
                                              481Air Transportation503337696
                                              Total150935429475
                                              454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                              522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                              425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                              452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                              321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                              811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                              444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                              524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                              623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                              441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                              June 2020 23

                                              US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly LatehellipEmployment

                                              NAIC Industry 2019 ths Late Change yr ago

                                              721 Accommodation 20774 690 445512 Motion picture and sound recording 4428 540 328711 Performing arts spectator sports and related 5167 492 241722 Food services and drinking places 120687 476 227712 Museums historical sites and similar 1730 464 241448 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 12992 453 191315 Apparel manufacturing 1104 447 180323 Printing and related support activities 4247 388 95482 Rail transportation 1745 382 23481 Air Transportation 5033 376 96

                                              Total 1509354 294 75

                                              454 Nonstore retailers 5627 260 82522 Credit intermediation and related activities 26512 259 62425 Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers 5309 258 37452 General merchandise stores 30378 241 52321 Wood product manufacturing 4090 234 20811 Repair and maintenance 13522 221 36444 Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers 12964 207 23524 Insurance carriers and related activities 27901 206 40623 Nursing and residential care facilities 33786 201 19441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 20349 189 45

                                              Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture

                                              B2B Spending

                                              Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                              Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS April 2020

                                              Table 1

                                              Sheet5

                                              Table 2

                                              Sheet3

                                              Sheet4

                                              June 2020 24

                                              US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                              Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                              hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                              0

                                              5

                                              10

                                              15

                                              20

                                              25

                                              30

                                              35

                                              07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                              Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                              June 2020 25

                                              Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                              Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                              Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                              -500

                                              50100150200250300350400450

                                              0 50 100 150 200 250

                                              NorwaySweden

                                              Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                              Italy

                                              Argentina

                                              GreeceJapan

                                              Russia

                                              Mexico

                                              Spain

                                              France

                                              Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                              India BrazilGermany

                                              ChinaUS

                                              June 2020 26

                                              -20

                                              -10

                                              0

                                              10

                                              20

                                              30

                                              01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                              Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                              Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                              Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                              Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                              Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                              Data through Mar 2020

                                              Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                              June 2020 27

                                              Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                              June 2020 29

                                              copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                              CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                                              All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                              To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                              To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                              NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                              Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                              securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                              Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                              Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                              MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                              MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                              • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                              • Slide Number 2
                                              • 1
                                              • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                              • US Economy Struggles Most
                                              • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                              • 2
                                              • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                              • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                              • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                              • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                              • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                              • 3
                                              • Alternative Scenarios
                                              • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                              • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                              • 4
                                              • US EPI Assumptions
                                              • 5
                                              • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                              • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                              • 6
                                              • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                              • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                              • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                              • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                              • Slide Number 27
                                              • Slide Number 28
                                              • Slide Number 29
                                                179993374805849067570945647189826474971833253337980511816323456210875631110781424536773943933163264856713457753105848252334395885203337786416151891283020985561507011235544043516276671384835829171952001348967144627382141049754812703917771354207720424797913165187381339559706323199243458840011880411859462097540823553867760705284391276135216242854517241273832702465891846961822552043274150020218764162389275565144178857559108205969813163932823345096787673941912173304944215014019352896132382177162978289017919258231612303254169246636336548615055797355294246622378074419709738015077633621123026924037627522173860717121204164282706545711822757039981225032221213059132029170640383448100521297969913123642037779633082863627781550516922769222470622596153952541311708781133249552868109214009090141295376340105532674103198424768523859463968367186000675685655794998923852770530509035242572754342290315151230216669604134842698328778810197435680412051979010906528868271426500167546633221187251193912336923492022476212719558187542753364
                                                111111121131141152121121221322232362372383131131231331431531632321322323324325326327333313323333343353363373394242342442544441442443444445446447448454514524534544848148248348448548648748849491492493515115125155175185195252152252352452553531532533545556561562616262162262362471711712713727217228181181281381492921922923924925926927928
                                                StateAgricultureCrop ProductionAnimal Production and AquacultureForestry and LoggingFishing Hunting and TrappingSupport Activities for Agriculture and ForestryMining Quarrying and Oil and Gas ExtractionOil and Gas ExtractionMining (except Oil and Gas)Support Activities for MiningUtilitiesConstructionConstruction of BuildingsHeavy and Civil Engineering ConstructionSpecialty Trade ContractorsManufacturing - 31Food ManufacturingBeverage and Tobacco Product ManufacturingTextile MillsTextile Product MillsApparel ManufacturingLeather and Allied Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 32Wood Product ManufacturingPaper ManufacturingPrinting and Related Support ActivitiesPetroleum and Coal Products ManufacturingChemical ManufacturingPlastics and Rubber Products ManufacturingNonmetallic Mineral Product ManufacturingManufacturing - 33Primary Metal ManufacturingFabricated Metal Product ManufacturingMachinery ManufacturingComputer and Electronic Product ManufacturingElectrical Equipment Appliance and Component ManufacturingTransportation Equipment ManufacturingFurniture and Related Product ManufacturingMiscellaneous ManufacturingWholesale TradeMerchant Wholesalers Durable GoodsMerchant Wholesalers Nondurable GoodsWholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and BrokersRetail Trade - 44Motor Vehicle and Parts DealersFurniture and Home Furnishings StoresElectronics and Appliance StoresBuilding Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies DealersFood and Beverage StoresHealth and Personal Care StoresGasoline StationsClothing and Clothing Accessories StoresRetail Trade - 45Sporting Goods Hobby Musical Instrument and Book StoresGeneral Merchandise StoresMiscellaneous Store RetailersNonstore RetailersTransportation and Warehousing - 48Air TransportationRail TransportationWater TransportationTruck TransportationTransit and Ground Passenger TransportationPipeline TransportationScenic and Sightseeing TransportationSupport Activities for TransportationTransportation and Warehousing - 49Postal ServiceCouriers and MessengersWarehousing and StorageInformationPublishing Industries (except Internet)Motion Picture and Sound Recording IndustriesBroadcasting (except Internet)TelecommunicationsData Processing Hosting and Related ServicesOther Information ServicesFinance and InsuranceMonetary Authorities-Central BankCredit Intermediation and Related ActivitiesSecurities Commodity Contracts and Other Financial Investments and Related ActivitiesInsurance Carriers and Related ActivitiesFunds Trusts and Other Financial VehiclesReal Estate and Rental and LeasingReal EstateRental and Leasing ServicesLessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works)Professional Scientific and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAdministrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation ServicesAdministrative and Support ServicesWaste Management and Remediation ServicesEducational ServicesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAmbulatory Health Care ServicesHospitalsNursing and Residential Care FacilitiesSocial AssistanceArts Entertainment and RecreationPerforming Arts Spectator Sports and Related IndustriesMuseums Historical Sites and Similar InstitutionsAmusement Gambling and Recreation IndustriesAccommodation and Food ServicesAccommodationFood Services and Drinking PlacesOther Services (except Public Administration)Repair and MaintenancePersonal and Laundry ServicesReligious Grantmaking Civic Professional and Similar OrganizationsPrivate HouseholdsPublic AdministrationExecutive Legislative and Other General Government SupportJustice Public Order and Safety ActivitiesAdministration of Human Resource ProgramsAdministration of Environmental Quality ProgramsAdministration of Housing Programs Urban Planning and Community DevelopmentAdministration of Economic ProgramsSpace Research and TechnologyNational Security and International Affairs
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                                                CA35317241181058961439160822892099414249140355022922390491139186817199331178316632584952063321257273176942352105691395153007834449455178984357174930735350546111984521689630101951075742449131430543559462416071819516648214193850372528457827524020364103613229775290828889156158314869261066567781481954154524355843099093911130194729506722068865482980672626492424123341431521732087720966165569134012959147450976961037979939304428606073656529964737833803132283629299634862371528732177238056249087390154056070814971286122911544743139267858315838016238797107143214379011866225720669512106463719521600479380956530072975522887305121141344758599313505503498487658590317265362011981625811381094260053161262236888676017598374281942098159300473487561457853679987940383833748191289795787113312026824351311582136457878846335881947030790948223114952263145802084801456135127320873326311266277
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                                                SD63062186230179470651784001113444524824061389721314664551219957846445266391996082058417785088773599446979059815170501542615708118496469039163842530711139780165944666262051146261382129284238457876832075134001810277994475024598730118096071273146257661108577054811474133278626843925922421073100376708335060678961467889505210233590179929549160150437200083397017600162750636527677657030299647358935521251011899378939241820663316180019029359843994288460334896812442536520294791850032341018384087694141448201241658468937783447893217747550451958186501513018003815848897801487081063312796739203535630380939280725584570401278168941975597705036
                                                TN138576379889743612020172106132244421099339266570548348284421950277275944818111710052515940622578733831096332977358195851235979427145111499171593931120876701736658840329175611897149313104708163910708598434042013325296662151133549742736012825176022131058608620807216155776649743201229305808008218425537859173105371595834833339681450075912245413285232310426138620913945943775378478718174825985791416851452611868760507059544428029830429055412748282390104200903895228682521683252773398959702588041179332840949751239281184086320443209143654213320869174883350121682012930164326963671715382731821205511571596135171141129861870731135418123346698867482371298051226819651240993359738961979336231880081961090249128438600923155526016061413946465619440408045971376382521802153660134496530111139124026821548944509053664
                                                TX7402289304771424263871253695139996604941569643431030502371184959942064507595425203816517259135954349908488240383694272028079193206932689819393597153270420560364860542530227745846082972187233736075409911472911008612334462553285258793827187802392663853267421589019101060342371162850097974120721198823773966375176605185187560188768503122054220933551634311754215156926065540368957189380809647079829023867300686759952581208437261320402516004752990007812987867020297891348593187267672700734924168331251088624846369863189551128997332188535646286279247161314163303338389349997795597241023539313474212823562313135661939425850032764115326977992756272119390464248077891534792321463159073282131206457278668258810184645749404297281915226832329050430847853399858616115201002258274112715027849546118654812194935615518366339793030301572903308475631292262521163291306580727386670342589928276911114912
                                                UT5898441132463576696706965454531567519672736361868855377192034932603231191585312528683904160160466843344605962139321613739614598675156326618167677337191951221973474544107271175900363255027243424727069850147011485387723525698269348274413019952365969103213331524439497165761927659757203548377909211632573566267810826565523869178065651434834309979015479561413160312875478697944320026382608615694119491596118301022477522247105711986649238811050150500771060278590368344890585247344084451465458482999593826372757244215454298436042110276839914202941348105089457671836753223036972181700548669214920481036212773089222689755223630139820315016540671325424769541152251598359924380205017695123621181670420025441831777180629911821818985347146597909196
                                                VA1924931138857297346100816654382727594009332117731287628360397338789291156710452203873766416598699064918519342147547283287081145232890502302821296929200851212812211084371133205913173337108007402611622048433660959918960027218733670210345761572124148698669455024871603275737377714273319530922632819441755383131507464171148506691131285434461982739792307624473869384046883623293950665721216128557588993564852732979912105126494881059126999145180271752862385929411636156119461125072137348937473095653431450764514461304591152657112819611214627888277803794326938275471674682261365186648537227122609175045171366965362704763514882811216481835676299997571490604244855701806431880171427579469010319180264866327545111819127935384671368145587336868871468061016653929321573910116304195112984850392199523011727286
                                                VT378329199635622781162590157205410197038385656028159438672542102101738479169432714556777780010349854381220039714177895740420623456670102032671249524156700366745128463259986540259716584793524653067102041542288821879767552598142861041072670030147003527081366938290985137371603091753851981942233783142431431545121060115581250491691058235993920564035117836103627755353436752917670813192353291284529745549590601109354802434570098618417745684401099491783111585507126576631974121599133324779519336764813043239974573161754271252850619331787144062125960598308137579930204957164290289735562357232898401248
                                                WA6871369246649118456313343671841022064705164139444747962670689954837635658348672116389813797366429123252662729823424864267224482951889212412549172031266260762850112002102129443767473758602581655325215090067733896554775013278104669615611220516721203261612632114582199432279974028478982653186848720727633344065385120132132063763736060494779481720058607015369340578898509167138509145943609922335334354544442571972719503510341827286593013455286016531059631524719013494584079918484426895291001362674403485769316353770324043518212315073348036733040345295231491483404129365224927118800940133721931300461196345681813108915034791583575144739568203528263595827403708941007692744969970807648768103210463469389974108798882229951605640154429647038908543316953144069933703564345951155474099394
                                                WI11791774166080095393709133110250017127531441685462312122272476216336691026403571597710691120827755116998988577846949231095522711882320223061151201082178108482512237632036949930143348542770564230328362479112742268811492830814729845354459905323426227434125831880814209032190543940055801106286136235394848204235704301267498444921197863748403609433887760427603570774290133892622076934703894211614631956564315426052476923149903916139636955101313143706939421261250261517454872399406394993171819089114176334890638579089025555629832549668942074561204047151609900442295061238747330087735353959473024086210101834014351309242704536808556154124782251844459197195314896009285274712549867113410653117319915511521638191387333580448540394877287551036243056618222661354214343929307521898223251211055301907
                                                WV1591043274825095892740119871014137375628391327247182322093725192496355719837564304611186092113796597780011225129334611352798261490012579533994399984491144770231697664797925037819721546138941268176227057699122882552091021183887789145482593959330370379828185647989319912231393182100194618123339763262379303070417873748334818966564719632236506039954971388857117811329997049690510412753661154424371162593066865851496325611031449880277203445960916115915203495302174631320670967511147228360122635108959033116991536146312354740102988513717592831290102498817002834143583532006321577211276964742575201861332528031367418716840965186153062815980195500768
                                                WY36331434849325235732065661433383353446592939486998207540030021511958155122212294115125263504505620252900180822137473468170825067976298282516914402905595973709741000232861523571810429212742854342860187515114413773975873618746357392852438445318352051078674163948172601296629930236385866811039189676361103707312144141050569926107332642387047001760174802294157880728842505807391123121487259425077702706216981853897011390610414103492068340912121422674312225247421848330613317806049185468491530472696656131638115525730173260504123986342917187227274642803029711981095156539797244471102240761
                                                First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                                Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                                Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                                Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                                Share of loans701249288
                                                Active loan count mil279121130530
                                                Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                                Sources Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                                First Mortgage Loans in Forbearance
                                                Fannie amp FreddieFHA amp VAOtherTotal
                                                Loans in forbearance1964000149500012020004661000
                                                Principal balance $ bil4142563551026
                                                Share of loans701249288
                                                Active loan count mil279121130530
                                                Monthly payments $ bil31202878
                                                Source Black Knight Moodys Analytics
                                                Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                                EmploymentB2B Spending
                                                NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                                721Accommodation20774690445
                                                512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                                711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                                722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                                712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                                448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                                315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                                323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                                482Rail transportation174538223
                                                481Air Transportation503337696
                                                Total150935429475
                                                454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                                522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                                425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                                452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                                321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                                811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                                444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                                524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                                623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                                441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics
                                                Percent of Business-to-Business Payments Late
                                                Top 10 weakest and strongest 3-digit NAICS industries April 2020
                                                EmploymentB2B Spending
                                                NAICIndustry2019 thsLateChange yr ago
                                                721Accommodation20774690445
                                                512Motion picture and sound recording4428540328
                                                711Performing arts spectator sports and related5167492241
                                                722Food services and drinking places120687476227
                                                712Museums historical sites and similar1730464241
                                                448Clothing and clothing accessories stores12992453191
                                                315Apparel manufacturing1104447180
                                                323Printing and related support activities424738895
                                                482Rail transportation174538223
                                                481Air Transportation503337696
                                                Total150935429475
                                                454Nonstore retailers562726082
                                                522Credit intermediation and related activities2651225962
                                                425Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers530925837
                                                452General merchandise stores3037824152
                                                321Wood product manufacturing409023420
                                                811Repair and maintenance1352222136
                                                444Building material and garden equip and supplies dealers1296420723
                                                524Insurance carriers and related activities2790120640
                                                623Nursing and residential care facilities3378620119
                                                441Motor vehicle and parts dealers2034918945
                                                Note Excludes NAICs with fewer than 25000 employees in 2019 and in public administration and agriculture
                                                Sources Cortera Moodys Analytics

                                                June 2020 24

                                                US monthly Chapter 11 filings as of May 27

                                                Sources Bloomberg Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                                hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge

                                                0

                                                5

                                                10

                                                15

                                                20

                                                25

                                                30

                                                35

                                                07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                                Businesses with over $50 mil in liabilities

                                                June 2020 25

                                                Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                                Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                                Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                                -500

                                                50100150200250300350400450

                                                0 50 100 150 200 250

                                                NorwaySweden

                                                Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                                Italy

                                                Argentina

                                                GreeceJapan

                                                Russia

                                                Mexico

                                                Spain

                                                France

                                                Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                                India BrazilGermany

                                                ChinaUS

                                                June 2020 26

                                                -20

                                                -10

                                                0

                                                10

                                                20

                                                30

                                                01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                                Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                                Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                                Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                                Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                                Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                                Data through Mar 2020

                                                Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                                June 2020 27

                                                Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

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                                                June 2020 29

                                                copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                                CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

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                                                All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                                To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                                To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

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                                                Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                                securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                                Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                                Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                                MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                                MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                                • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                                • Slide Number 2
                                                • 1
                                                • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                                • US Economy Struggles Most
                                                • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                                • 2
                                                • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                                • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                                • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                                • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                                • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                                • 3
                                                • Alternative Scenarios
                                                • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                                • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                                • 4
                                                • US EPI Assumptions
                                                • 5
                                                • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                                • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                                • 6
                                                • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                                • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                                • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                                • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                                • Slide Number 27
                                                • Slide Number 28
                                                • Slide Number 29

                                                  June 2020 25

                                                  Running Out of Fiscal Space

                                                  Source Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                                  Sovereign borrowing capacity given current yields

                                                  -500

                                                  50100150200250300350400450

                                                  0 50 100 150 200 250

                                                  NorwaySweden

                                                  Circle size=Real GDP $Y-axis Fiscal spaceX-axis Debt-to-GDP ratio

                                                  Italy

                                                  Argentina

                                                  GreeceJapan

                                                  Russia

                                                  Mexico

                                                  Spain

                                                  France

                                                  Turkey S AfricaEgypt

                                                  India BrazilGermany

                                                  ChinaUS

                                                  June 2020 26

                                                  -20

                                                  -10

                                                  0

                                                  10

                                                  20

                                                  30

                                                  01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                                  Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                                  Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                                  Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                                  Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                                  Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                                  Data through Mar 2020

                                                  Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                                  June 2020 27

                                                  Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                                                  QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                                                  Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                                                  moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                                                  Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

                                                  MORE INFORMATION

                                                  DecisionsFaster

                                                  Better

                                                  West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

                                                  New York Corporate-HQ+121255316537 World Trade Center 14th Floor250 Greenwich StreetNew York NY 10007USA

                                                  London+442077725454One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FAUnited Kingdom

                                                  Toronto4166812133200 Wellington Street West 15th FloorToronto ON M5V 3C7Canada

                                                  Prague+420224222929Washingtonova 17110 00 Prague 1Czech Republic

                                                  Sydney+61292708111Level 101 OConnell StreetSydney NSW 2000Australia

                                                  Singapore+65651144006 Shenton Way14-08 OUE Downtown 2Singapore 068809

                                                  Shanghai+862161010172Unit 2306 Citigroup Tower33 Huayuanshiqiao RoadPudong New Area 200120China

                                                  Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

                                                  helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

                                                  June 2020 29

                                                  copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                                  CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                                  MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                                  ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                                  CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                                  All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                                  To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                                  To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                                  NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                                  Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                                  securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                                  Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                                  Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                                  MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                                  MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                                  • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                                  • Slide Number 2
                                                  • 1
                                                  • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                                  • US Economy Struggles Most
                                                  • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                                  • 2
                                                  • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                                  • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                                  • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                                  • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                                  • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                                  • 3
                                                  • Alternative Scenarios
                                                  • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                                  • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                                  • 4
                                                  • US EPI Assumptions
                                                  • 5
                                                  • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                                  • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                                  • 6
                                                  • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                                  • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                                  • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                                  • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                                  • Slide Number 27
                                                  • Slide Number 28
                                                  • Slide Number 29

                                                    June 2020 26

                                                    -20

                                                    -10

                                                    0

                                                    10

                                                    20

                                                    30

                                                    01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

                                                    Merchandise world trade 2010 US$ Industrial production

                                                    Sources CPB World Trade Monitor Moodyrsquos Analytics

                                                    Global trade and industrial production change yr ago

                                                    Nov 2018 ndash Trade War

                                                    Jan 2020 ndash Covid-19

                                                    Data through Mar 2020

                                                    Globalization Will Be Diminished

                                                    June 2020 27

                                                    Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                                                    QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                                                    Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                                                    moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                                                    Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

                                                    MORE INFORMATION

                                                    DecisionsFaster

                                                    Better

                                                    West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

                                                    New York Corporate-HQ+121255316537 World Trade Center 14th Floor250 Greenwich StreetNew York NY 10007USA

                                                    London+442077725454One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FAUnited Kingdom

                                                    Toronto4166812133200 Wellington Street West 15th FloorToronto ON M5V 3C7Canada

                                                    Prague+420224222929Washingtonova 17110 00 Prague 1Czech Republic

                                                    Sydney+61292708111Level 101 OConnell StreetSydney NSW 2000Australia

                                                    Singapore+65651144006 Shenton Way14-08 OUE Downtown 2Singapore 068809

                                                    Shanghai+862161010172Unit 2306 Citigroup Tower33 Huayuanshiqiao RoadPudong New Area 200120China

                                                    Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

                                                    helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

                                                    June 2020 29

                                                    copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                                    CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                                    MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                                    ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                                    CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                                    All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                                    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                                    To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                                    NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                                    Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                                    securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                                    Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                                    Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                                    MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                                    MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                                    • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                                    • Slide Number 2
                                                    • 1
                                                    • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                                    • US Economy Struggles Most
                                                    • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                                    • 2
                                                    • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                                    • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                                    • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                                    • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                                    • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                                    • 3
                                                    • Alternative Scenarios
                                                    • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                                    • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                                    • 4
                                                    • US EPI Assumptions
                                                    • 5
                                                    • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                                    • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                                    • 6
                                                    • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                                    • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                                    • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                                    • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                                    • Slide Number 27
                                                    • Slide Number 28
                                                    • Slide Number 29

                                                      June 2020 27

                                                      Further Questions Contact us at helpeconomycom

                                                      QampAmoodysanalyticscomcovid19scenarios

                                                      Forecasts for 100+ countries are available for download through our Data Buffet service via our Excel Add-in or API

                                                      moodysanalyticscomscenariostudioUsers can also create their own scenarios based off our Global

                                                      Macroeconomic Forecast Model using our Scenario Studio platform

                                                      MORE INFORMATION

                                                      DecisionsFaster

                                                      Better

                                                      West Chester EBA-HQ+16102355299121 North Walnut Street Suite 500West Chester PA 19380USA

                                                      New York Corporate-HQ+121255316537 World Trade Center 14th Floor250 Greenwich StreetNew York NY 10007USA

                                                      London+442077725454One Canada Square Canary Wharf London E14 5FAUnited Kingdom

                                                      Toronto4166812133200 Wellington Street West 15th FloorToronto ON M5V 3C7Canada

                                                      Prague+420224222929Washingtonova 17110 00 Prague 1Czech Republic

                                                      Sydney+61292708111Level 101 OConnell StreetSydney NSW 2000Australia

                                                      Singapore+65651144006 Shenton Way14-08 OUE Downtown 2Singapore 068809

                                                      Shanghai+862161010172Unit 2306 Citigroup Tower33 Huayuanshiqiao RoadPudong New Area 200120China

                                                      Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

                                                      helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

                                                      June 2020 29

                                                      copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                                      CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                                      MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                                      ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                                      CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                                      All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                                      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                                      To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                                      NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                                      Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                                      securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                                      Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                                      Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                                      MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                                      MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                                      • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                                      • Slide Number 2
                                                      • 1
                                                      • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                                      • US Economy Struggles Most
                                                      • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                                      • 2
                                                      • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                                      • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                                      • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                                      • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                                      • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                                      • 3
                                                      • Alternative Scenarios
                                                      • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                                      • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                                      • 4
                                                      • US EPI Assumptions
                                                      • 5
                                                      • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                                      • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                                      • 6
                                                      • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                                      • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                                      • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                                      • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                                      • Slide Number 27
                                                      • Slide Number 28
                                                      • Slide Number 29

                                                        DecisionsFaster

                                                        Better

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                                                        Contact Us Economics amp Business Analytics Offices

                                                        helpeconomycom moodysanalyticscom

                                                        June 2020 29

                                                        copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                                        CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                                        MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                                        ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                                        CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                                        All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                                        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                                        To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                                        NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                                        Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                                        securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                                        Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                                        Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                                        MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                                        MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                                        • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                                        • Slide Number 2
                                                        • 1
                                                        • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                                        • US Economy Struggles Most
                                                        • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                                        • 2
                                                        • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                                        • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                                        • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                                        • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                                        • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                                        • 3
                                                        • Alternative Scenarios
                                                        • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                                        • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                                        • 4
                                                        • US EPI Assumptions
                                                        • 5
                                                        • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                                        • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                                        • 6
                                                        • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                                        • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                                        • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                                        • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                                        • Slide Number 27
                                                        • Slide Number 28
                                                        • Slide Number 29

                                                          June 2020 29

                                                          copy 2020 Moodyrsquos Corporation Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc Moodyrsquos Analytics Inc andor their licensors and affiliates (collectively ldquoMOODYrsquoSrdquo) All rights reserved

                                                          CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE INC AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES (ldquoMISrdquo) ARE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY INCLUDE MOODYrsquoS CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES CREDIT COMMITMENTS OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES MOODYrsquoS DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT OR IMPAIRMENT SEE MOODYrsquoS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYrsquoS RATINGS CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LIQUIDITY RISK MARKET VALUE RISK OR PRICE VOLATILITY CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYrsquoS ANALYTICS INC CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE SELL OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR MOODYrsquoS ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL WITH DUE CARE MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE HOLDING OR SALE

                                                          MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODYrsquoS CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER

                                                          ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED REPACKAGED FURTHER TRANSMITTED TRANSFERRED DISSEMINATED REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODYrsquoS PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT

                                                          CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODYrsquoS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT COULD RESULT IN THEM BEING CONSIDERED A BENCHMARK

                                                          All information contained herein is obtained by MOODYrsquoS from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors however all information contained herein is provided ldquoAS ISrdquo without warranty of any kind MOODYS adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODYS considers to be reliable including when appropriate independent third-party sources However MOODYrsquoS is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moodyrsquos publications

                                                          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect special consequential or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information even if MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages including but not limited to (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYrsquoS

                                                          To the extent permitted by law MOODYrsquoS and its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud willful misconduct or any other type of liability that for the avoidance of doubt by law cannot be excluded) on the part of or any contingency within or beyond the control of MOODYrsquoS or any of its directors officers employees agents representatives licensors or suppliers arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information

                                                          NO WARRANTY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED AS TO THE ACCURACY TIMELINESS COMPLETENESS MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYrsquoS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER

                                                          Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodyrsquos Corporation (ldquoMCOrdquo) hereby discloses that most issuers of debt

                                                          securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to Moodyrsquos Investors Service Inc for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1000 to approximately $2700000 MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MISrsquos ratings and rating processes Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5 is posted annually at wwwmoodyscom under the heading ldquoInvestor Relations mdash Corporate Governance mdash Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policyrdquo

                                                          Additional terms for Australia only Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYrsquoS affiliate Moodyrsquos Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 andor Moodyrsquos Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable) This document is intended to be provided only to ldquowholesale clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 By continuing to access this document from within Australia you represent to MOODYrsquoS that you are or are accessing the document as a representative of a ldquowholesale clientrdquo and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to ldquoretail clientsrdquo within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 MOODYrsquoS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors

                                                          Additional terms for Japan only Moodys Japan KK (ldquoMJKKrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Group Japan GK which is wholly-owned by Moodyrsquos Overseas Holdings Inc a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO Moodyrsquos SF Japan KK (ldquoMSFJrdquo) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (ldquoNRSROrdquo) Therefore credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and consequently the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under US laws MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No 2 and 3 respectively

                                                          MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds debentures notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have prior to assignment of any rating agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125000 to approximately JPY250000000

                                                          MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements

                                                          • Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy
                                                          • Slide Number 2
                                                          • 1
                                                          • Pandemic Upends Global Economy
                                                          • US Economy Struggles Most
                                                          • More Infections Worse Downturn
                                                          • 2
                                                          • Global Businesses Re-Open
                                                          • US Lockdown Winds Down
                                                          • Central Banks Erect a Firewall
                                                          • Aggressive Global Fiscal Policy Responsehellip
                                                          • hellipThat Cushions the Blow (Temporarily)
                                                          • 3
                                                          • Alternative Scenarios
                                                          • V W U L A Swoosh Recovery
                                                          • Commercial Real Estate Market Will Be Slammed
                                                          • 4
                                                          • US EPI Assumptions
                                                          • 5
                                                          • Global Businesses Are Shell-Shocked
                                                          • Double-Dip Recession Without More Fiscal Support
                                                          • 6
                                                          • US Businesses Are Paying Increasingly Latehellip
                                                          • hellipand Business Bankruptcies Surge
                                                          • Running Out of Fiscal Space
                                                          • Globalization Will Be Diminished
                                                          • Slide Number 27
                                                          • Slide Number 28
                                                          • Slide Number 29

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