Better Data for Better Decisions: Progress & Prospects
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Better Data for Better Decisions:
Progress & ProspectsJ. Steven Landefeld, Director
Measuring and Enhancing Services Trade Data & Information ConferenceU.S. Department of Commerce
September 14th, 2010
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Updating Measures of Services to Reflect the Expanding Role of Services in the Economy
▪Despite their key role in today’s economy, services data in the past have seriously lagged data on manufacturing: Services now account for over 2/3
of GDP; Manufacturing now accounts for
less than 1/5 of GDP
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Updating Measures of Services to Reflect the Expanding Role of Services in the Economy
▪ Improvements in services measurement provided a much better understanding of services contribution to the revival of growth and productivity since the mid-1990’s
Brookings, Triplett and Bosworth, 2004
▪ These improvements were in response to concerns by the business, academic, and policy community
Greenspan, and Corrado and Slifman (1996) AEA, NABE, CEA (Boskin)
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Contributions to productivity
▪ Increasing productivity in services led the dramatic improvement in U.S. productivity growth over the 1995-2001 time period.
▪Although productivity growth has slowed, productivity of private services-producing industries over the 2002-2007 time period continues to be well above their long-term average
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Productivity Trends
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Private goods-producing industries Private services-producing industries
[Real gross output per hour] Average annual growth rates
1995-2001 2002-2007Goods-producing 3.7 1.3Services-producing 2.2 2.4
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Contributions to growth in Real GDP
3.4
4.1
2.32.2
3.0
2.1
0.9 1.0
0.10.3 0.2 0.10.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1960-1995 1995-2000 2000-2007
Total Services Goods Government
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Contributions to Real GDP by selected private service industries
0.38
0.29 0.300.28
0.44
0.320.29
0.43
0.140.150.22
0.150.12
0.26 0.23
0.05
0.39
0.12
0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.75
1960-1995 1995-2000 2000-2007
Real estate Retail trade
Wholesale trade Telecommunications and Broadcasting
Miscs. Services Securities, commodity contracts, and investments
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Updating Measures of Services to Reflect the Expanding Role of Services in the Economy
▪QSS expansion reduced the share of the early GDP estimates accounted for by extrapolation and improved the accuracy of these estimates for business and public decision makers.
The latest QSS expansion lowered the trend-based share of the early GDP estimates from 23 to 13 percent.
QSS has had another major expansion in 2010 that will continue to lower the trend share of early GDP estimates.
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Improvements to the National Accounts:Use of QSS Data in PCE Estimates (July
2010)
HCE Health Care Services 92% 8% Transportation Services 58% 42% Recreational Services 76% 24% Other Services 65% 35%
NPISH Gross Output of NPISH 74% 26%
% Based on QSS
HCE - Household Consumption Expenditures for Services NPISH - Final Consumption Expenditures of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households
% Not Based on QSS
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Improvements to the Industry Accounts
Services Annual Survey (SAS) expansion Better information on industry receipts and
expenses in BEA’s input-output accounts QSS expansion
More accurate “advance” GDP by industry statistics
NAICS updates focus on improved coverage in key growth sectors, such as Information
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Updating Measures of Services to Reflect the Expanding Role of Services in the Economy
▪Expanded Services Annual Survey collections improved the accuracy of the input-output coefficients for services industries. Such coefficients are used to
assess a broad range of economic events Hurricane Katrina Impact of public investments under
the Recovery Act
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Updating Measures of Services to Reflect the Expanding Role of Services in the Economy
▪Greater detail in international trade in services. Large expansion the geographic detail for
the quarterly trade data from 10 countries and areas to 37, including China and India
Breakdown of affiliated trade by type facilitates analysis of services trade and off-shoring issues.
Large expansion of quarterly detail with key countries such as China.
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Improvements to the International Accounts: Cross-Border Trade
▪Surveys converted from annual to quarterly
▪ Integration of data collection for affiliated and unrelated-party trade
▪ Improved mailing lists through data sharing with Census
▪New credit card survey will improve statistics on international travel
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Improvements to the International Accounts: Affiliated Services Trade
Coverage expanded to include banks Added 12 percent to services provided to
foreign markets by foreign affiliates of U.S. companies
Added 8 percent to services provided to U.S. markets by U.S. affiliates of foreign companies
Improved measures for finance, insurance, and wholesale and retail trade Un-priced financial services of banks included
along with explicit fees
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Remaining Challenges
Count investment in R&D and other innovation
Improve measures of financial services. Develop measures of small business for the
national accounts. Develop quarterly GDP by industry and other
integrated measures of business conditions, particularly for service industries.
Develop more detailed measures of energy services.
Develop Improved Measures of Medical Care Services
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Planned Expansion of Measures of Energy Services
Petroleum and coal products Nuclear
Natural gas
Other
Hydroelectric
Coal
Coal miningOil and gas extraction
Other energy products
Electric Power
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Remaining ChallengesComparison of Price Indexes for Medical Care, 2001-2003
(compound annual growth rates)
0
1
2
3
4
5
All Diseases0
1
2
3
4
5
PrescriptionDrugs
Office Visits HospitalOutpatient
HospitalInpatient
Provider-Based Disease-Based
Source: A. Aizcorbe and N. Nestoriak, “Using Commercially-Defined Episodes of Illness for the Measurement of Health Accounts: A Progress Report,” Paper presented at NBER/CRIW Summer Institute, July 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
All Diseases0
1
2
3
4
5
PrescriptionDrugs
Office Visits HospitalOutpatient
HospitalInpatient
Provider-Based Disease-Based
Source: A. Aizcorbe and N. Nestoriak, “Using Commercially-Defined Episodes of Illness for the Measurement of Health Accounts: A Progress Report,” Paper presented at NBER/CRIW Summer Institute, July 2006
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Remaining Challenges
▪Better Integration of Economic Statistics: Concepts and Methods Presentation Sample Frames Classification Data Synchronization
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