BELARUS 2012+ The Race of One against All and History Yauheni Preiherman Center for Analytical Initiatives PA Discussion and Analytical Society Liberal.
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BELARUS 2012+BELARUS 2012+The Race of OneThe Race of One
againstagainstAll and HistoryAll and History
Yauheni PreihermanYauheni Preiherman
Center for Analytical InitiativesCenter for Analytical Initiatives
PA Discussion and Analytical Society PA Discussion and Analytical Society Liberal ClubLiberal Club
Core FragmentsCore Fragments
1.1. Parliamentary elections 2012: Parliamentary elections 2012: little little to talk about, but…to talk about, but…
2.2. Political system under threat: Political system under threat: smth smth new is knocking on the doornew is knocking on the door
3.3. The eternal question of the broken The eternal question of the broken oppositionopposition
4.4. What the prospects look like? What the prospects look like?
Election 2012 central Election 2012 central issue –issue –
BOYCOTT/TURNOUT*BOYCOTT/TURNOUT*• Boycotting opposition + government + pro-government Boycotting opposition + government + pro-government
parties and NGOs = parties and NGOs = quite an effect!!!quite an effect!!!
• General perception of the role of parliamentGeneral perception of the role of parliament
• General perception of the fairness of the electionGeneral perception of the fairness of the election
• Transformation of the social contract (?) or End of Transformation of the social contract (?) or End of Lukashenka’s populist politics (?)Lukashenka’s populist politics (?)
*And that’s after last year’s financial crisis*And that’s after last year’s financial crisis
Parliamentary elections Parliamentary elections predictive variables in predictive variables in
the Belarusian the Belarusian consolidated consolidated
authoritarianism authoritarianism
Unprecedented pressure on Unprecedented pressure on Lukashenka to start changeLukashenka to start changeTraditional:Traditional:• West (EU + US)West (EU + US)• RussiaRussia• ““Third column”Third column”
ECONOMYECONOMYRecent:Recent:• Ruling elitesRuling elites
Absolutely recent:Absolutely recent:• Electorate at largeElectorate at large
The West wantsThe West wantsDemocratization Democratization
(+ macroeconomic stabilization, (+ macroeconomic stabilization, microeconomic liberalization, privatization)microeconomic liberalization, privatization)
Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!
Russia wantsRussia wants
Macroeconomic liberalization + privatizationMacroeconomic liberalization + privatization
Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!
““Third column” wantsThird column” wants
DemocratizationDemocratization
Change of theChange of thepolitical system!!!political system!!!
What the ruling elites wantWhat the ruling elites want
More rents (privatization) + managed democracyMore rents (privatization) + managed democracy
Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!
What the electorate at large wantWhat the electorate at large want
Stable (growing) incomeStable (growing) income
It’s the economy, stupid!It’s the economy, stupid!
Change of the political system!!!Change of the political system!!!
Change is knocking on the Change is knocking on the doordoor
• “Everyone wants it, except for one person!”
• But THE ONE’s maneuvering field is shrinking
• The situation with Belaya Rus is very telling and indicative
• If Belaya Rus is transformed into a political party it will mean the end of the old politics
• New politics will bring further unpredictability, but the old politics will stay no less unpredictable
OPPOSITION never UNITEDOPPOSITION never UNITED• While the regime stays consolidated it does not really matter
what strategies the opposition adheres to (boycott/participation or united/disunited)
• The opposition will never get united sitting around a negotiation table
• Only a strong political leader/organization can unite the others (who will simply join in an inferior status)
• A political organization is strong when its leader or platform (or both) enjoy considerable popularity in society
• The main problem of the internal and external anti-regime policies are exaggerated short-term expectations!
What can be a trigger?What can be a trigger?
While the regime remains consolidated:While the regime remains consolidated:• multiple desire for change is not enoughmultiple desire for change is not enough• the opposition is incapable of the opposition is incapable of
transforming the situationtransforming the situation
ECONOMYECONOMY
Prospects: Need for ChangeProspects: Need for ChangeGDP Growth in Jan-Aug 2012
Prospects: Need for ChangeProspects: Need for ChangeForeign Trade in Jan-Aug 2012
Prospects: Need for ChangeProspects: Need for ChangeEconomyEconomy
• Unstable performance.Unstable performance.
• Uncertainty about economic rents from Russia.Uncertainty about economic rents from Russia.
• Demand for Belarusian goods and services Demand for Belarusian goods and services under question.under question.
• Risky concentration of the exports.Risky concentration of the exports.
• Customs Union/CES/Customs Union/CES/WTOWTO
• Officials on the runOfficials on the run
Lukashenka’s only available option
Some sort of (“radical”) authoritarian modernization
But can it work out?
No, it cannot!!! Belarus is not SingaporeBelarus is not Singapore
1. Lukashenka factor (“Spartak”, Kommunarka”)
2. Theory of transformations of this kind
3. Belarusian practice (systemic cursesystemic curse)
Race until the runner is out
• Belarus is doomed to stable instability.• The people are doomed to lack of sustainable
growth.• Unpredictability is enormous .• The situation is definitely qualitatively new.• If the opposition continue their usual way of
behavior, changes will take place without their participation.
As of today, the situation looks exactly like this
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