Automotive industry GEAR 2030...PT 1 Global Landscape •Analysis and selection of key trends affecting the automotive sector •Analysis of possible scenarios for specific key trends

Automotive industry GEAR 2030

Alexandra Kuxová European Commission Brussels -EESC– 3 November 2016

Global Crisis

• 6 years of consetcutive decline

• In February 2014 car registration noticed the first stable increse after 2008 crisis

• In volume terms, this result is close to March 2007 levels

World New Car Registrations

Source: www.acea.be

Sales

Continuous sales growth in the last two years:

Passenger cars:

• 9.25% more units sold compared to the previous year (2014 = 12.5 / 2015 = 13.7 m)

+8.0% over last nine months

Commercial vehicles:

• 12.2% more units sold compared to the previous year (2014 = 1.8 / 2015 = 2.0 m)

Forecasts

2016 sales should further increase by 5.3%

27 new cars were registered per 1,000 inhabitants in the EU in 2015.

Environment / Heath

Consumer/societal demands

Technological Innovation

Economic shift

NEW CHALLENGES

Plus an extra challenge

VW Scandal brought decrease in confidence of the European Automotive sector.

Two ways to remedy:

Regulation:

• Investigating and establishing the facts and enforcing the (existing) rules

• Changing the approval and surveillance system

• Accelerating adaptation of the regulatory framework for emission: the Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) package

Long-term competitiveness:

• GEAR 2030 – including actions on zero emission vehicles

GEAR 2030

Holistic approach

Multistakeholder platform

Mid- to long-term strategy

Objective: Strengthening the competiveness of the sector both within and outside the EU

Launched 26 January 2016 (2 years)

A three level structure:

• The High Level Group

• Sherpa Group

• Working Groups with its project teams

Global European Automotive Roadmap for the year 2030 and beyond

GEAR 2030 Working Groups and its Project Teams

WG 1

Adaptation of the EU value chain

PT 1 - Global Landscape

PT 2 - Zero Emission Vehicles

PT 3 - Adaptation of the value chain

PT 4 – Human Capital

WG 2

Roadmap on highly automated & connected vehicles

PT 1 - Regulatory and policy issues

PT 2 - Funding and research

WG 3

Global competitiveness

PT 1 - General discussion on global competitiveness

PT 2 - Roadmap for economic relations with China

PT 1 Global Landscape

• Analysis and selection of key trends affecting the automotive sector

• Analysis of possible scenarios for specific key trends

• Finding consensus on the industry outlook by 2030 (most probable scenario)

• Building a vision for 2030 (most recommended scenario)

PT 2 Zero Emission Vehicles

General objective:

Development of a strategy for a roll-out of zero-emission vehicles:

• Analysis of different aspects related to the success of zero-emission vehicles (cost, batteries, second hand market, incentives…)

• Analysis of best practices in the EU and outside of the EU to promote zero-emission vehicles

• Selection of the most efficient approaches to the promotion of zero-emission vehicles

PT 3 Value Chain Adaptation

• Definition of value chain in Europe in 2016 and 2030

• Analysis of key trends and their impact on the European automotive value chain

• Determine actions which would strengthen /

• prevent negative impacts on the value chain

• Identification of skill needs due to new trends

• tools available

• specific risks for SMEs and tools to mitigate them

• Determine possible actions at different level (EU, national, regional, industry)

• Strategy on vocational training to feed in Blueprint initiative

PT 4 Human Capital – Scope of Work

GEAR 2030 The roadmap on highly automated vehicles:

Development of a common vision on the roll-out of these vehicles as well as setting actions regarding:

1. Regulatory and policy issues

• Testing

• Liability

• Connectivity

• Road safety

2. Financing and research issues

GEAR 2030 Working Group 2

GEAR 2030 Trade, international harmonisation and global competitiveness:

1. To explore the way forward to facilitate global competitiveness of the EU automotive in the run up to 2030

2. To assess the potential of the existing EU level policy instruments promoting cross-border trade

3. To evaluate the tools and actions that ensure more predictability and can continue generating value for the EU economy and society

GEAR 2030 Working Groups 3

Sherpa meeting 18 November

By end of 2016 : Global landscape scenarios; First recommendations for highly automated vehicles 2020

Mid term report January/February 2017

Final report May/June 2017

NEXT STEPS

MORE INFORMATION

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/automotive/policy-strategy_en

Contact: alexandra.kuxova@ec.europa.eu

Thank you