Austin: A Theory of Everything. How & why Austin is changing and what we should do about it
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Austin: A Theory of EverythingHow & why Austin is changing and what
we should do about it
2014 Realty Round UpPalmer Events Center
Austin, TXOctober 15, 2014
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• Population change (nom) #10• Population growth (%) #2• Job change (nom)
#7• Job growth (%)
#1• GDP change (nom) #21• GDP growth (%)
#3
Austin rank among U.S. metros since 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs are from 2000 to 2013. GDP is from 2001 to 2013 (2000 not available). Growth rankings (%) are among large MSAs. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Austin MSAU.S.
Austin averaging 5.7% annual GDP growth: nearly 2 percentage points > U.S. economy
Average (2002-13)Austin MSA 5.7%
U.S. 3.9%
% Change in GDP (Nominal)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Not adjusted for inflation.
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-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
Austin MSAU.S.
This time it really was different: Austin was much better prepared for Great Recession
July 2001
Dec2003
Jan1991
Aug2014
Job Growth, 12-month rolling (SA)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Seasonally adjusted.
AUS U.S.
1990s 63% 18%
2000s 13% -1%
2010-13 12% 5%
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19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Austin MSAU.S. (MSA)
Population growth in Austin has picked up the slack in lean economic years
Population Growth, 1970-2012Growth
2011 3.1%
2012 3.0%
2013 2.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. U.S. MSA is all metropolitan areas.
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Bach Degree+Pop Growth
2000-13RankMSA
Total PopGrowth
2000-13RankMSA
Charlotte 102% 1 35% 5Grand Rapids 93% 2 9% 33Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3Austin 80% 4 49% 2Raleigh 79% 5 51% 1Riverside 74% 6 34% 8Nashville 72% 7 27% 12Orlando 66% 8 37% 4San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6
Austin has added 225,000 people with bachelor’s degree or
higher since 2000 (~17,000 per year), only MSA in top 25 with population of less than 2 million.
Bachelor’s+ made up 36% of Austin’s total population growth during 2000-2013
(Raleigh 37%).
Austin is winning “war for talent”
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3 table P37. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
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37,740
45,960
55,080
Bachelor’s degree or higher
Some college or associate’s degree
High school diploma or equivalent
No high school diploma
85,608
Average Earnings ($) Per Worker Age 25+ by Educational Attainment in Austin
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program. Data in chart is for Austin-Round Rock MSA, 2013Q3.
Raleigh
Bachelor’s+ 75,228
Some college 49,524
HS diploma 42,132
No HS diploma 36,132
All workers 49,824
All Workers 54,360
Fast growing bachelor’s+ population is driving significant wealth creation
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Age 25+Population
2013Growth
2000-13AverageEarnings
Max MonthlyHousing Cost
Bachelor’s or higher 506,645 80% $85,608 $2,140
Some college 340,908 57% $55,080 $1,377
HS diploma 234,821 54% $45,960 $1,149
No HS diploma 139,786 20% $37,740 $944
All workers 1,222,160 59% $54,360 $1,359
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3 table P37 (Population, Growth, and Educational Attainment). Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program, 2013Q3 (Average Earnings). Maximum monthly housing cost is calculated at 30% of average earnings.
Affordable means monthly housing costs < $1,400 for majority of Austin workers
9Note: Search conducted on October 14, 2014.
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Earnings for < bachelor’s degree workforce not keeping up w/ housing costs in Austin
944
1,149
1,359
1,377
2,140
AustinMetro1,614
AustinCity
1,770
AustinDowntown
2,322Bachelor’s degree or higher
Some college or associate’s degree
All workers
High school diploma or equivalent
No high school diploma
Housing Affordability ($) by Educational Attainment
Max. monthly housing cost at average earnings
Medianrent
Source: Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), August 2014. ZRI is the median of the estimated rent price for all homes in a given region. ZRI may not reflect actual listings at any given point in time. Maximum monthly housing cost is calculated as 30% of average earnings by educational attainment from U.S. Census
Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program, 2013Q3. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
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Max MonthlyHousing Cost
Bachelor’s+Metro Area
Med RentCity LimitsMed Rent
DowntownMed Rent
Austin 2,140 1,614 1,770 2,322
Raleigh 1,881 1,307 1,300 1,594
Orlando 1,880 1,305 1,176 1,474
Nashville 2,124 1,292 1,306 1,758
Charlotte 2,695 1,207 1,183 1,486
Denver 2,092 1,737 1,730 2,348
Portland 1,928 1,511 1,539 1,802
Housing is expensive in Austin relative to other high-performing metro areas
Source: Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), August 2014. ZRI is the median of the estimated rent price for all homes in a given region. ZRI may not reflect actual listings at any given point in time. Maximum monthly housing cost is calculated as 30% of average earnings by educational attainment from U.S. Census
Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program, most recent quarter available. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Downtown defined as following zip codes: Austin (78701), Raleigh (27607), Orlando (32801), Nashville (37201), Charlotte (28202), Denver (80202), Portland (97201).
Several downtowns in table have multiple zip codes. The zip code that best reflected majority of downtown properties based on ZRI was selected.
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Average monthly earnings for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher in Austin increased by $166 during 2011-2013.
Median monthly rent in city of Austin increased by $331.
Source: Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), August 2011-August 2013. ZRI is the median of the estimated rent price for all homes in a given region. ZRI may not reflect actual listings at any given point in time. Average earnings are from U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Longitudinal-Employer
Household Dynamics Program, 2011Q3-2013Q3. Earnings data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. ZRI rent estimate is for city of Austin. Not adjusted for inflation.
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Race/Ethnicity
AverageMonthlyEarnings
Max MonthlyHousing Cost30% Earnings
Percent withBachelor's+Austin MSA
Percent withBachelor's+
U.S.
Asian 5,661 1,698 67% 50%
White 4,644 1,393 49% 32%
Black 3,256 977 23% 18%
Hispanic 3,251 975 17% 13%
Source: Educational attainment rates by race/ethnicity are from U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates, table C15002. Average earnings are from U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program, 2013Q3. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
Workforce Demographics by Race/Ethnicity in Austin
Education & wage inequality + rising housing costs contributes to residential segregation
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Austin is the most expensive housing market in Texas.
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Average SFSale Price
Metro AreaMed Rent
City LimitsMed Rent
Urban CoreMed Rent
Austin 311,414 1,614 1,770 2,322
Dallas 295,350 1,407 1,226 2,982
Houston 275,369 1,463 1,330 2,299
San Antonio 220,366 1,276 1,180 1,830
Source: Average sale price from ABoR, MetroTex (Dallas County), SABOR, HAR, most recent month available. Median rent from Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), August 2014. ZRI is the median of the estimated rent price for all homes in a given region. ZRI may not reflect actual listings at any given point in time. Urban core
was roughly defined as Austin (78701), Dallas (75201), Houston (77006), and San Antonio (78209). Rent estimate in San Antonio is median list price (ZRI N/A).
Housing costs are higher in Austin but geographic perspective is important
Housing Costs in Selected Texas Metro Areas, 2014
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Austin is not creating enough “middle-wage” jobs.
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OccupationAverage Wage
2013Jobs
2014% Total
2014Change
2009-14Growth
2009-14
Low-wage ≤ 13.83 per hr 292,732 32% 47,016 19%
Middle-wage 13.84-21.13 232,807 26% 31,562 16%
High-wage ≥ 21.14 per hr 384,992 42% 57,242 17%
Total ** 910,531 100% 135,820 18%
Source: EMSI, 2014.3 Data Release. Excludes self-employment. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA and includes all jobs for which average wage data was available. Average wage is the mean wage (2013) for all jobs classified by occupation—i.e. all jobs per occupation were assigned to one category based on the average wage.
Calculations using median wage by occupation or other breaks could yield different results. Wage categories are from the National Employment Law Project. http://www.economicmodeling.com/2013/10/03/middle-skill-jobs-that-have-survived-and-the-states-that-are-fostering-them/.
Job Growth by Wage Range in Austin, 2009-2014
Middle-wage jobs are smaller share but keeping pace with overall job growth
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We have more Ph.D. taxi drivers than anywhere else in America
(underemployment).
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PopulationAge 25+
2012
Pop GrowthAvg Annual2000-2012
Job GrowthAvg Annual2001-2014
Job Growth“Boom” Year
2013-2014
Bachelor’s Degree 321,536 11,265 3,488 7,424
Some College 332,076 9,599 1,694 2,856
High School Diploma 227,965 6,278 5,418 13,366
Graduate or Prof Degree 155,522 5,004 797 829
No High School Diploma 139,522 1,893 5,346 12,731
The Human Capital is getting crowded
Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3 table P37. Employment data, including 2014 projection, from EMSI. Some College category includes certificates, associate’s degree, and people
w/ higher education credits but no completed postsecondary degree. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
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People moving here from California are to blame for
______________.
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Travis County in 2008 tax year.
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Wayne County in 2008 tax year.
2008
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Map by Forbes showing net migration of tax filers (# of exemptions) to Orleans Parish in 2006 tax year.
2006
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19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000 Households Moving to Austin from California
1996-2011
Texas 288,868
California 39,886
Florida 9,163
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Includes only people filing federal tax returns. Number of returns used as proxy for number of households. Actual number of households may be different. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
25,274 moved Austin to CA
California is big but majority of people moving to Austin come from Texas
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110 people move to Austin every day.
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It really doesn’t matter.It’s a lot.
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But if you must know:
Austin MSA: 2011(latest available)
201 moved in147 moved out
+54 net
Source: Internal Revenue Service. Includes only people filing federal tax returns. Number of exemptions reported on tax returns used as proxy for number of people. Actual number of people may be different. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA.
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• Celebrate
• Stop comparing Austin to New York, San Francisco, and Washington DC
• Educate people about urban core vs. periphery markets
What should we do about all of this?
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• Support and invest in career and technical education
• Pay equal attention to supply and demand sides of Austin’s affordability challenge
• Advocate for publicly-funded Austin research program
What should we do about all of this?
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com
866-512-3835
brian@civicanalytics.com
7600 Burnet RoadSuite 108Austin, TX 78757
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