Transcript
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The Challenges Brought By The Shortage
of Oil And Gas In China And Their Countermeasures
Pang Xiongqi, Meng Qingyang
Zhang Jun, Natori Mariko
China University of Petroleum in Beijing
Key Laboratory For Hydrocarbon Accumulation Mechanism,
Ministry of Education, PRC
Emailpangxq@bjpeu.edu.cn
Tele: 86-010-89733346
Fax: 86-010-89733423
Mobile: 13701296729
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Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
. Conclusions
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1. Brief Introduction of China
Location: Northern Hemisphere, Asia Country land area: 9.6 million km2
Population: About 1.3 Billion Foundation: in 1949, PRC
Nationalities: 56 (Mainly Han Nationality) Open door policy: Since 1978
Beijing, ChinaLisbon, Portugal
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2. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Exploration in China
Oil and Gas Resources are Distributed in Four Areas: East, Middle, West and South China Sea
Brief Introduction of Oil and Gas Exploration in China (until the end of 2003) :
Total Amount Oil= 101 billion tones Gas= 42 trillion m3Proved Oil= 23.42 billion tonesGas= 3.8695 trillion m3Proved Recoverable Oil= 6.513 billion tonesGas= 2.4646 trillion m3Left Recoverable Oil= 2.381 billion tonesGas=2.0894 trillion m3
I. Forward
Legends East area
Middle area
West area
South Chinasea area
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3. Brief Introduction to Chinas Shortage of Oil
Comparison between Oil Production and Demand in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Oil Production
Oil Consumption
162222 170
260
190
360
200
310
420
220
490
240
Unit: million tones
I. Forward
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3. Brief Introduction to Chinas Shortage of Gas
Comparison between Gas Production and Demand in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
I. Forward
265265 420
500 7201000 1000
14001200
1800
1200
2700
1200
3400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gas Production
Gas Consumption
Unit: hundred million cubic meters
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Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
. Conclusions
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02
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
GDP
Increase
R
ate
(%)
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
The GDP increases very fast in recent 20 years in China and
the average increase rate can reach 9% per year
Brief introduction to economy growth in recent 20 years in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
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The relation between oil consumption increase and yearly
economy increase in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003
The increase of demand on oil and gas per year will
reach 0.65% with 1% increase of Chinas GDP.
oilconsumptionincreaserate
/e
conomyincreasera
te
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The oil consumption increase curve with time in China
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
The increase rate of yearly oil
consumption in recent 10 years is five times
higher than that of 10 years before .
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Oil
co
ns
ump
tio
n(millio
n
to
nnes
) U.K China Japan U.S.A Yearly Oil
consumption of
China has reached 3
hundred million
tones and just next
to the U.S.A
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Gas
consumption
million
tonnes
oil
equivale
nt)
U.S.A U.K China JapanYearly gas
consumption rate ofChina is increasing
fast but relatively
still little comparing
with other developed
countries
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
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Million barrels per day 2004Oil & Gas Journal July 5th 2004
Australia uses 0.8
China 6.3US 20.5
World 81
US 1 cubic km oil / year
Australia China United States
1 kml l
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resourcesOil consumption of China is 7.8 of the consumption all over the world, while U.S.A is 25.3%.
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2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with
the development of economy in the future
Forecast on economy increase of China in the coming 10 years
(Beijing Statistic information website, 2005)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015GDP(hundred
million
dollar
s)
The GDP growth rate will be averagely 7.5%~9% per year with personal
GDP reaching 2600~3100 dollars in the coming 10 years.
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
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Forecast curves on oil demand by different scholars
of China in the coming 15 years
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Yearlydemand
(milliontonnes)
Tsinghua
University
Zhang Rong
Mu Shuling
Mineral
Dept.
Average
The oil demand of China in 2020
will be todays 1.5 times and reach
4 hundred million tones
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing
with the development of economy in the future
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Yearly
Dema
nd
(hundred
millioncub
ic
meters)
Zhang Kang
Mu Shuling
Average
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with
the development of economy in the future
Forecast curves on gas demand by different scholars
of China in the coming 15 years
The gas demand of China will be todays 3.5 times
and reach 180 billion cubic meters in 2020.
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Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gasin China and Their Countermeasures
. Conclusions
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1. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas
Exploration in China ( until the end
of 2003):
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
Year
Accumulated
found
geological
reserves
108t
Accumulated
found
recoverable
reserves
108t
Yearly
increase of
recoverable
reserves
108t
Left
recoverable
reserves10
8t
Geological
reserves/production
1980 71.4922 27.3631 0.7016 18.2164 17.2
1981 73.9068 28.2873 0.9242 18.1316 18
1982 76.4557 29.2629 0.9756 18.0885 17.8
1983 82.2484 32.533 3.2701 20.3013 19.2
1984 93.2744 35.7001 3.167 22.3255 19.5
1985 116.1723 37.9323 1.9198 23.312 18.71986 125.1811 39.3364 1.4264 23.4124 18
1987 132.1743 41.0333 1.6969 23.7701 17.7
1988 137.4164 42.2109 1.1776 23.5793 17.2
1989 142.2609 41.9143 0.9992 21.9079 15.9
1990 148.6561 43.2425 1.3282 21.855 15.8
1991 154.0888 43.9483 1.1229 21.164 15.2
1992 158.9784 44.9312 0.9809 20.7273 14.6
1993 164.8273 48.0659 1.2782 22.422 15.6
1994 169.8718 49.2847 1.1512 22.18 15.2
1995 174.3001 50.9078 0.742 22.3125 15
1996 181.5766 52.6027 1.2869 22.4345 14.3
1997 190.6682 54.9943 1.8306 23.2217 14.5
1998 197.7078 57.147 1.5952 23.7692 14.8
1999 205.6493 59.3418 1.632 24.36 15.2
2000 212.8956 60.9517 1.6099 24.5153 14.9
2001 217.5896 62.0432 1.0915 23.7884 14.4
2002 225.5917 63.397 1.3538 23.8737 14.1
2003 234.2 65.1261 1.7291 23.81 14.0
Total amountoil= 101 billion tonesgas= 42 trillion cubic meters
Accumulated discovered geological reservesoil= 23.42 billion tonesgas= 3.87 trillion cubic meters
Accumulated discovered recoverable reservesoil= 6.513 billion tonesgas= 2.47 trillion cubic meters
Remaining recoverable reservesoil= 2.381 billion tonesgas=2.09 trillion cubic meters
Proved rate:
oil= 38.9%gas= 23.0%
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004
Production (hundred million cubic meters)
0
50
100
150
200
1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004
Production (million tones)
2. Yearly production curves of oil and gas with time since 1949
oil
gas
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
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3. Oil and gas production in different areas of China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005ga
s
pro
duc
tion
(hu
ndre
d
m
illion
cu
bic
me
ters
)
East China
Middle ChinaWest ChinaChinas Sea
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
oi
l
pro
duc
tion
(ten
thousan
d
tonnes)
East ChinaMiddle China
West China
Chinas Sea
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
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4. Forecast approach and principle on
Chinas future oil and gas production
Typical Oil Depletion Curve
Norway (North Sea)
Werner Zittel , LBST www.energiekrise.de
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
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Relationship among the oil and gas resources, proved and recoverable
resources, remaining recoverable resources and yearly production
Oiland
gasresources(hund
redmilliontones)
Accumulated production
Proved recoverable resources
Proved resources
Theoretical maximum resources
Yearly provedresources
Yearly
production
Exploration and development procession
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
4. Forecast approach and principle on Chinas future oil and gas production
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Relationship among the oil and gas resources, proved and
recoverable resources, remaining recoverable resources and yearly
production of China from 1970 to 2003
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
4. Forecast approach and principle on Chinas future oil and gas production
0
50
100
150
200
250
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
accumulated discovered
geological reservoirs
accumulated discovered
recoverable reservoirsremaining recoverable
reservoirs
Explorationfruits(108tones)
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0
50
100
150
200
250
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
2008
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
2018
202
0
Guo
Baoshen
Jia
Wenrui
Mu
Shuling
Shen
Pingping
Average
5. Forecast on Chinas oil and gas production by different scholars in the coming 15 years.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
199
0
199
2
199
4
199
6
199
8
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
Zhou Zongying
Jia Wenrui
Mu Shuling
Wan Jiye
Zhao Fuxing
Average
Oil
Gas
Production(milliontones)
Production(hundredmillion
cubicmeters)
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
yearly net increase ofrecoverable reservoirs
yearly oil production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
gas production
yearly net increase of
recoverable reservoirs
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction
6. Forecast on oil and gas production until 2050
Year
lyoilproduction
(milliontones)
Y
earlygasproduction
(milliontones)
III Th
B i f I t d ti d F t Oil d G P d ti
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6. Forecast on oil and gas production in China
III. The Brief Introduction and Forecast on Oil and Gas Production
in China
Oil
Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
}
}
2005
Forecast on Chinas oil and gas production
MillionTones
Oil production
Gas production
2026
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Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gasin China and Their Countermeasures
. Conclusions
IV Th B i f I t d ti t Oil d G Sh t i
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1. The shortage of oil and gas is an inevitable problem faced by human beings
By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors
0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
2002
World oil
shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
Forecast
Production
Demand
Growth
Gb /year
0
10
20
30
40
50
}Shortfall2030
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
time
IV Th B i f I t d ti t Oil d G Sh t i
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2. The shortage of oil in China is shown by large importation.
0
100
200
300
400
500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Oil production
Oil demand
Importation is 41% ofTotal demand in 2004
Importation is 50% ofTotal demand in 2010
}Shortfall
Production and demand (million tones)
Time
China began to importoil in 1993
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
IV The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
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2. The shortage of gas in China is shown by large importation
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Gas production
Gas demand
}shortfallegin to import gas
Production and demand (hundred million cubic meters)
2004
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
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Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gasin China and Their Countermeasures
. Conclusions
V The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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Challenge IRestrain economy development
Environment
Oil is the blood of industry. The industry cannot develop without it.
It costs us a lot of foreign exchanges to import oil. The number of 2004reached 300 billion RMB. The expense on yearly importation will keep
increasing with the increase of importation and higher oil price.
Space industry
Transportation
Defense Chemical Industry
Traffic
Oil & gas
Bottleneck
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V
The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Challenge II : Affect peoples life and environment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
China has a large population and is in shortage of energy. People are still using traditional methods to utilize the energy.It causes a series of environment problems: decrease of forests and plants, decline of earth and organic matters in thesoil , growth of desert, and so on.
China has the largest coal production and consumption. The burning of coal gives out 85% of the countrys SO285%
of the countrys CO2
and 75% of the countrys dust. The loss cost by acid rain is 2% of the GDP in 1998. The potentialeffect of CO2 is a key factor in the energy field.
World U.S.A
China
coal
hydro
oil
gas
nuclear
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V
The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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Challenge IIIAffect country securityGulf WarOil and gas are important strategy
resources. In modern war, the
production and procession basement of
oil and its transportation tools are themain attacking targets by enemies. The
shortage of oil will seriously threaten the
security of the country. Now the pillage
on oil and gas resources is so furious
around the world. The past Gulf War
and newly ended Iraq War are all
because of the abundance of oil
resources in the Middle-east.
Iraq War
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
2005
World oil
shortfall scenarios
Past Production of Oil
Forecast
Production
Demand
Growth
Deprivat ion, war
City design / lifestyle
Pricing / taxes
Transport
mode shifts
Efficiency
Other petroleum fuelsgas, tar-sands
Other fuels
Gb/year
no single Magic Bullet solution
probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil
Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital
How to deal with these challenges brought by the shortage of oil and gas ?
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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China adopts four measures to solve the
shortage of oil and gas resources problems
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2005
Oil and gas production
Oil and gas demand
Develop domestic energy
Utilize overseas energy
Find substitute energy
Take saving measures
Oil and gas production and demand (million tones)
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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Chinas oil and gas resources:
Oil: 104 billion tones, proved rate:38.9%(the world:73.0%)
Gas: 42trillion cubic meters, proved rate:23.0%(the world: 60.5%)
Oil and gas resources distribution and exploration situation in China
Measure IInnovate geological theory and fasten the development andutilization of domestic oil and gas resources
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
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V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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Measure III: Increase the expenses on science and
technology and develop substitute energySubstitute energy
Coal to oilDevelop hydrogen energyEthanol gasolineDevelop biomass energyUtilizing wind and solar energyUtilizing nuclear energy
Oil and gas are non-renewable energy resources and will be used
up in some day. Governments in all the countries should take
measures to look for substitute energies.
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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Measure IV : Adopt saving measures and guarantee the
stable development
Measures to Save oil & gas
Change life styleDevelop public transportationDecrease the consumption of oil by carsImprove the efficiency of oil and gas utilizationOil is a high-efficiency energy and gas is a clean energy. The oil
price will keep increasing, so adopting oil saving measures will be the
direction we take efforts to.
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
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China
US
What is our purpose to take these measures?
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
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Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gasin China and Their Countermeasures
. Conclusions
Conclusions
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. Conclusions
1. Chinas economy is still in fast development stage,
oil and gas resources are the most important energies.
2. It is inevitable that oil and gas will be used up in thefuture, the predicted peak production of oil and gas inChina will be in 2026.
3. Chinese government now is paying much moreattention to this serious problem and four measures aretaken to solve this problem.
4. We believe that human beings can take advantage of
their talents and knowledge to solve this problem.
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